Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

G. Hudson  

View G. Hudson's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • SIGA Technologies: Uncovering Hidden Value In Bankruptcy [View article]
    Pure fiction without any substance but good luck with your fantasy.
    Mar 21, 2015. 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SIGA Technologies: Uncovering Hidden Value In Bankruptcy [View article]
    I talked with the clirk of the Supreme Court and she indicated SIGA had filed their opening brief on March 2nd.
    Mar 18, 2015. 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SIGA Technologies: Uncovering Hidden Value In Bankruptcy [View article]
    Excerpts from PharmAthene's 2014 press release:

    http://bit.ly/1b4DUX1

    "At December 31, 2014, PharmAthene had cash and cash equivalents totaling approximately $18.6 million, compared to $10.5 million at December 31, 2013."

    "The increase in cash in 2014 resulted from net proceeds of approximately $18.1 million raised through the sale of the Company's common stock under a Controlled Equity Offering Agreement, and $0.7 million in warrant exercises, partially offset by $8.5 million in net cash used in operations and $2.1 million used for other financing activities."

    "For the year ended December 31, 2014, PharmAthene's net loss was approximately $10.0 million, or $0.17 per share, compared to a net loss of $11.7 million, or $0.23 per share, for the prior year."


    "The Company expects its cost-saving initiatives will preserve cash and cash equivalents sufficient to finance its operations beyond the adjudication of the appeal of the decision of the Delaware Chancery Court awarding PharmAthene $195 million plus post-judgment interest."

    HERE IS WHY THIS LAST EXCERPT IS MISREPRESENTING THE TRUTH-

    1) At December 31, 2014, PharmAthene had $18.6 million in cash & cash equivalents,

    2) For the full year of 2014 PIP only had a $10.0 million net loss WITH ONLY $8.0 million of that loss as net cash used in operations IN A YEAR THAT THEY WERE FULLY OPERATING WITHOUT CUTBACKS

    SOOOOOO- The $18.6 million in cash at 12/31/14 is sufficient to cover ALL cash operation needs for TWO YEARS even if they continued to operate WITHOUT LAYING ANYONE OFF!!!!!

    FACTS-

    1) The SC will rule on this case within the next few months

    2) If PharmAthene wins - SIGA has over a $100 million in cash that will be immediately be available to PIP plus the rights to millions of more cash from future BARDA payments

    MY BELIEF- I still own both stocks though I sold off over half of my PIP shares after this announcement- PharmAthene knows they have a slim chance of winning this battle before the SC so they are making sure they have enough money to have- "sufficient to finance its operations beyond the adjudication of the appeal of the decision of the Delaware Chancery Court"
    Mar 12, 2015. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SIGA Technologies: Uncovering Hidden Value In Bankruptcy [View article]
    So you think the SC is either going to string this out or overrule the damage award????

    #1 The SC is going to rule soon (within months) so that can't be the reason can it - hmmmmm

    Otherwise the SC has to rule on this case soon (probably within the next few months) so if they were to rule in favor of PharmAthene then SIGA would have to either pay PIP the award or turn control over to PharmAthene - if that is what PIP's management believes then no reason for massive layoffs & the president stepping down - right???
    Mar 11, 2015. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SIGA Technologies: Uncovering Hidden Value In Bankruptcy [View article]
    Does this sound like a company that is confident they will receive a $200+ million dollar award? -> From PharmAthene's 2014 financial results transcript-

    http://bit.ly/1Monkgd

    "In connection with the realignment plan, PharmAthene plans to reduce its staffing levels by approximately two thirds. Eric Richman, President and Chief Executive Officer, will remain a member of the Board of Directors, but will no longer serve as an Officer of the Company after March 11, 2015. He will continue to play a key role in managing the ongoing litigation, other legal matters and strategic transactions in his role as Director. Linda Chang will continue to serve as Chief Financial Officer through April 30, 2015. In accordance with meeting cost-saving objectives, the Board will be reduced from eight members to six and Messrs. Joel McCleary and Brian A. Markison intend to resign from the Board."
    Mar 10, 2015. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Big Players Manipulate The Stock Market [View instapost]
    Good post. The stock market has little to do with the actual valuation of a stock- the value of a stock is run up beyond its true worth when the major players get behind it and down below its true worth when they need to drive it the other way.

    I wonder how much of the Lumber Liquidators was about driving the stock down as a result of the people behind the story versus the real truth. I can't say myself but it wouldn't surprise me if the shorts made it up using their version of the story which used some borderline research to support their lie.
    Mar 4, 2015. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SIGA Technologies: Uncovering Hidden Value In Bankruptcy [View article]
    Your comment: "However, if the judge can use the BARDA contract then the ruling is fair to SIGA and should end this matter."

    My comment: That's a big IF

    I still believe this time Judge Parsons will be even more boxed in by the SC and he will be forced to award reliance damages only- $200,000 to $300,000.

    NOTE: I own both companies - (significantly more shares of SIGA) - If PIP wins - I should at least break even on the investment as to where the stocks are currently trading - IF SIGA wins- I'll hit a homerun and be up significantly
    Feb 27, 2015. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SIGA Technologies: Uncovering Hidden Value In Bankruptcy [View article]
    Peqod,

    So if it was so obvious that SIGA was going to earn profits, why did Judge Parsons rule that it would be to speculative to award "expectation damages" in his September 22, 2011 Opinion (almost 5 years after the dispute occurred)-

    http://bit.ly/1Fxxjxf

    Judge Parsons September 22, 2011 Opinion

    (Page 80)

    "This case presents a particularly vexing question as to the difference between damages that are speculative and those that merely lack mathematical precision. On the one hand, even a consummated license agreement between PharmAthene and SIGA in accordance with the LATS still would subject PharmAthene to the possibility that it might not profit at all for a host of reasons. For example, ST-246 might never receive FDA approval, there are no guaranteed purchasers of ST-246, and research delays or problems in animal trials might prevent ST-246 from reaching a viable market in a timely fashion. Because under even a fully-consummated license agreement there would be a plausible chance that PharmAthene would make no profit, PharmAthene’s claimed expectation damages could be considered, in a literal sense, to be merely speculative."

    (Page 84)

    "Applying these precedents to the facts before me, I conclude that I cannot award PharmAthene the present value of its estimated lost profits on a license agreement that (1)"

    (Continued on Page 85)

    "would have contained the risk of receiving no profits and (2) was never consummated, because such an award would be speculative. Nevertheless, it is possible that, in an appropriate case, permissible expectation damages for breach of an agreement to negotiate in good faith may include the net present value of whatever the parties had, or in good faith demonstrably would have, agreed to exchange at the time that the breach occurred."

    MY COMMENT- So apparently you think that anyone fighting over expectation damages can wait almost 8 years to get a decision as to whether there are profits available to estimate an expectation damage award. It would seem kind of obvious that this is not the intent of the law. Time will tell and I look forward to the SC's ruling.
    Feb 26, 2015. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SIGA Technologies: Uncovering Hidden Value In Bankruptcy [View article]
    earljr1-

    Expectation damages must be calculated based on the information available at the point of the initial dispute- December 2006. On rare occasions, additional information after the filing of a court dispute has been allowed to be used (usually within a few months - not 7 years later).

    So if you read Judge Parson's ruling, he openly admits that he can't use current information because it was not knowable at the time of the dispute.

    A lot of people on this board are making judgments about when & how expectation damages can be awarded without understanding the limitations of awarding them.
    Feb 25, 2015. 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SIGA Technologies: Uncovering Hidden Value In Bankruptcy [View article]
    I agree this is a circular argument and in the very near future you will finally be able to figure out that I am right. Keep on believing how you think the SC ruled but time is on my side.
    Feb 23, 2015. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SIGA Technologies: Uncovering Hidden Value In Bankruptcy [View article]
    Foot note #99 gives examples of when expectation damages can be awarded- NOT that they are guaranteed for ALL type II cases -->

    (“It is well settled law that ‘a recovery for lost profits will be allowed only if their loss is capable of being proved, with a reasonable degree of certainty. No recovery can be had for loss of profits which are determined to be uncertain, contingent, conjectural, or speculative.’”)

    Soooooo-> If the Delaware SC determines the award is uncertain, conjectural and/or speculative - THEN THERE IS NO RECOVERY FOR LOST PROFITS!! ------> AWARD OVERTURNED & REMANDED BACK TO PARSONS
    Feb 21, 2015. 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SIGA Technologies: Uncovering Hidden Value In Bankruptcy [View article]
    Pequod stated- "I would not buy a company's stock just because someone has accumulated a ton of shares like that."

    I bet you are really glad that you didn't follow Warren Buffet by investing in his stocks too
    Feb 19, 2015. 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SIGA Technologies: Uncovering Hidden Value In Bankruptcy [View article]
    wedge7- You conveniently omitted note #99 which explains the qualifications for awarding expectation damages-

    "99 An expectation damages award presupposes that the plaintiff can prove damages with reasonable certainty. Callahan v. Rafail, 2001 WL 283012, at *1 (Del. Super. Mar. 16, 2001) (citation omitted) (“It is well settled law that ‘a recovery for lost profits will be allowed only if their loss is capable of being proved, with a reasonable degree of certainty. No recovery can be had for loss of profits which are determined to be uncertain, contingent, conjectural, or speculative.’”)."

    So anyone analyzing how Judge Parsons determined his $195 million damage award will see that he selectively picked and chose information without any real basis for it to come up with this award and even randomly selected 2010 as the first year he was reasonably certain shipments of ST-246 would have begun. When you look up the meaning of uncertain-conjectural & speculative -> you will find Judge Parsons' picture awarding PharmAthene $195 million of expectation damages
    Feb 19, 2015. 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SIGA Technologies: Uncovering Hidden Value In Bankruptcy [View article]
    I am sure he doesn't bat 100% but I am sure he didn't accumulate $14 billion by making bad bets and being afraid to admit when he was in a bad investment.

    1st- SIGA already has $110 million on their balance sheet with minimal debt-

    "The wonderful thing for shareholders is that SIGA only has $2.5 million in debt outstanding, consisting primarily of a term loan from GE Capital. Normally, a creditor has the ability to accelerate the repayment of the term loan now that SIGA is in bankruptcy. Surprisingly, GE Capital has decided not to accelerate the repayment of the term loan as long as:

    SIGA continues to make its regular interest and amortization payments
    SIGA creates an account to hold a minimum of $4 million as collateral
    Both of these should be extremely easy for SIGA to do, considering it has $110 million of cash on hand."

    2nd- Plus they still have $162 million cash to collect from their current BARDA contract

    " + $162 million remaining from the BARDA contract"

    3rd- SIGA still has a lot of opportunities for ST-246 with BARDA plus many opportunities internationally for that drug. They also have some other drugs in the pipeline that could end up creating a cash stream or large payout

    FINALLY- So it should be obvious that even if they are short cash on their balance sheet in the remote case this $195 million award holds up, they will only have to temporarily fund $0 to $95 million until more cash rolls. Ron Perelman probably has that amount of change on his bedroom dresser.

    CONCLUSION: SIGA will survive any result from PharmAthene's lawsuit and will control the future sales of ST-246 which still have significant potential in a world where there are so many threats and dangers.
    Feb 19, 2015. 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SIGA Technologies: Uncovering Hidden Value In Bankruptcy [View article]
    Johns Research- Your comment->"At this stage, I see little hope for either of those events. Investors who have bid this stock to over $2 per share need to understand that their entire investment could quite possibly be wiped out."

    So you think you are smarter than the Ronald Perelman and his team of investment advisors who continued to buy shares of SIGA AFTER the bankruptcy was files (excerpt below from above post)-

    MacAndrews & Forbes Holdings Inc. (Ronald Perelman’s company owns 25% of SIGA and continued to buy SIGA shares after bankruptcy filing)

    (see below purchases of 403,884 shares of SIGA after bankruptcy filing) Does anyone believe Ronald Perelman http://bit.ly/1IT58z1 “worth 14 BILLION dollars -26th richest American” who owns 25% of SIGA’s stock would be dumb enough to continue buying SIGA stock if he thought there was any way SIGA would end up bankrupt.)

    My comment: All of my research points to Perelman's company being right on - $195 million is chump change for him and he is not going to let SIGA go bankrupt even if he has to lend some money to SIGA
    Feb 18, 2015. 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
316 Comments
762 Likes