Galileo Russell

Tech, alternative energy, software, long/short equity
Galileo Russell
Tech, alternative energy, software, long/short equity
Contributor since: 2011
LOL. Tough to say how 'smart' the 'smart money' is. There has been a 20M+ share short position since $25 per share. That's about a $5B loss so far .....
In regards to your post? No mention of Model 3? The mass market car which debunks your thesis on them 'only dominating luxury market'?
No mention of Tesla Energy? Receiving $100Ms of orders in the first day?
If this is the smart money's short thesis then they are in dire need of help.
Thanks for sharing your feedback about Shophouse. I've personally never been to one, just because of the limited locations. It's at the top of my list.
Surprised to hear its even better than Chipotle. Seems like a great sign.
Thanks for pointing this out, I grabbed the wrong number.
With 146.7M shares outstanding the updated valuation is as follows:
Market Cap = $45*146.7M = $6.6B
2014 P/EBIT (using $187M) = 35.3X
2015 P/EBIT (using $217M) = 30.4X
Slightly more expensive with the updated share count, although in comparison to when it IPO'd, the valuation remains significantly cheaper.
Haven't personally used any of Attunity's products. Although I have seen a demo of Maestro (at 2014 Analyst day) and was very impressed.
If you have any insight into their new/old products, feel free to share.
Am curious to see how analysts will break this down as well.
Even without exact numbers there is likely to be some commentary on the results in either Tesla's Q2 shareholder letter or on the conference call, about how China's deliveries/orders are trending.
Great point, thanks for clearing this up. Was confused myself given the fact that Tesla's have been compatible with every kind of charging infrastructure, even if its not a Supercharger. Although the rate of charge may be slightly (or significantly) lower, it can't hurt to have more stations in China. Especially when the government plans to build one every 5KM, per the article above that LT posted.
Very good point. A solid reason for Facebook making an entrance in this space. Especially given the motive to connect 3rd world nations.
BLFS only R&D is surrounding its bio-preservation products which it's been research for several years. Yes the budget is small, and so is the team but this is a niche technology and BioLife's scientific officers have lots of experience here.
Also, R&D is low for BLFS compared to most bio-techs because once they are in a drug/clinical trial they have no more investment required. The biotech who is commercializing that drug will be the one spending all the R&D on that technology.
Dividends are keeping these stocks very high for the exact reason you mention. Not really sure what they can do besides try and update their network fast enough and be able to offer it at a more compelling price than Google or Facebook can. Either way it looks like they would have to slash prices which is going to hit them hard.
Am also (unfortunately) doubtful that Tim Cook will do something like this. With Facebook & now Amazon both making big hints at things in the payment space; I think the big boys are catching on.
Legal issues are a definite possibility here. But with a company like Apple's legal/political clout I think they would stand a chance.
I did not include "3D Bio-printing" to be in the title. That was included by the editors.
Revenue growth was 47% year over year, getting into the same ballpark as Splunk & Tableau.
My initial reaction to Q3:
Great numbers. Top-line was much better than I expected and says a lot about this upcoming FY14. Only downside here is profitability. I was a little disappointed with how much spending increased, but it was expected because of the sales team ramp/integration of Panopticon's costs. Bottom line is the products are gaining traction, meaning the long term story appears to be very well intact.
I am long SCTY and happen to think the stocks recent move has been very rational. The company just reported blowout Q3 metrics, nominal lease payments are now over $1.74B, up 23% Q/Q. SCTY's market cap is still just $4B as you point out, and that $1.74B number will be catching up quickly. Just something to consider.
I like both stocks. Attunity trades for a much cheaper P/S multiple and is more profitable, but DWCH is growing faster ... at least for now. In the short term I think Attunity could have more upside if Q3 is up to par, mostly because DWCH has already risen so much.
Wow, suprised this was even published. Just a couple quick Q's.
Capital shortage? Do you know this company has $700M in cash, no debt and is on the verge of becoming profitable? (Even at current burn rate $700M could last 12+ quarters).
Why are you not including financials of the Model X or Gen III both coming out in next 3-4 years that have huge addressable markets? Are you implying these cars will never actually even be released?
Where did you get info that production is limited? I've talked to Tesla's IR numerous times about this and they've consistently stated their factory which they already own outright could produce up to 500,000 units as demand scales.
Hmmm interesting take.
Anyway, good luck on your short!
Great points. Confidence in achieving 25% gross margins (without ZEV credits) on the Q2 call + this kind of reasoning that follows most of Elon's milestones (remember 20K units in 2013, and no one believed that either) = potential for higher gross margins than 25% long term.
Great story. I feel like these are exactly the type of experiences going on all over the US (soon Europe + Asia) that Tesla bears fail to see the value of.
One more important thing to note about Sapiens valuation vs. Cover-All's. The reason for this major discrepancy (Cover-All being valued higher on a P/S basis despite much lower margins/growth) could have a lot to do with analyst coverage.
Sapiens, because it is an Israeli company, and only recently gained a market cap of $100M+, has no analyst coverage. Both Cover-All and Guidewire have at least one analyst covering their respective shares.
An analyst beginning to cover Sapiens stock with any positive news or ratings, would be a positive catalyst for multiple expansion going forward.
Congrats on getting your solar system installed. Ever since I have been an investor in SCTY I've been telling people to get off the grid. The power of word of mouth once consumers start seeing the savings and moral benefits (not polluting) switching to solar power is a no brainer.
I agree. We've seen a very similar phenomenon with powerful brands where consumers are willing to up their price point for a premium product. Think Apple with computers, Lululemon with sportswear and Starbucks for coffee.
Based on Tesla's integration of apps/software already, implementing this in the near future as the Supercharger network grows, seems like an obvious choice. Maybe some information about this will be released in the upcoming Supercharger announcement.
I tried to be conservative with the estimates for the stations to show how easily Tesla will be able to reach its goal.
In terms of decreasing Supercharger wait times, I see two potential catalysts.
1) Implementation of battery swapping with either ion or air batteries.
2) Faster charging technology (may enable 150 miles in 20 mins vs. 30 mins) and incremental improvements from there.
My guess its that it's a little of both.
Agreed. I also believe this market is underestimating what the demand picture will look like as stores are added in Europe and Asia. Once stores are online/offering test drives and delivering cars we could see another spike in demand (remember what happened shortly after US deliveries started).
The review by Consumer Reports seems to have been overshadowed by such an incredible quarter. Once the new issue hits the shelves Tesla will be exposed to a new set of US customers (along with an excellent new financing product).
For these reasons I believe 21,000 deliveries in 2013 is very possible, if not even 25,000.
Could you explain what breakthroughs in super capacitor technology have happened and how they could/will impact Tesla?
Thanks for the comment Sacha.
1) I disagree, range is a problem. But, charging time is as well, good point. Much like tech improvements will improve battery range, charge time will decrease as well. Now it takes 30 mins to add about 150 miles of range (on Tesla's Superchargers) vs 5/10 mins to add 400 miles of range for an ICE vehicle. Much like laptops and cell phones in the past 5 years, capacity to charge and hold electricity is going to improve. For this reason I don't like to speculate how long it takes to 'Supercharge' now, but rather where that number will be in 3-4 years (when Gen-iii is released), and in my opinion in 2017 EV charging times will be far more competitive than now.
2) Battery price will decrease because of the exact "deprecation" you reference. So over time it gets significantly cheaper to not only replace your battery but UPGRADE it. Replacing an 85kwh battery now may cost $8-$12K (and go 285 miles per charge), but in 2017 that number will be closer to $4-6K for a 400 mile 85kwh battery, a MUCH better deal. Time is on your side with EV's (thanks to improving battery tech).
3) First mover advantage is real, but not indicative of winning an industry. Tesla is one of the first movers (for EV's), but in reality it's just extrapolating a much bigger concept that has been proven by auto giants such as Toyota, Lexus and Mercedes. Are other manufacturers really catching up fast? What about the supercharger advantage? Or Tesla's industry leading range?
Hope that answers your concerns.
I intentionally used 500-600 mile tank to give ICE vehicles as much credit as possible. In reality the average ICE car is probably closer to 400, either way if a 1000 mile EV comes out these nuances won't matter.
Gen-III is going to be priced around $30K, starting price for Model S is around $67K. Not sure where you got the "$100000" number.
Well Amazon was the first mover/"THE leader" (in your words) in online e-commerce, but growth has decelerated and margins have declined to almost nothing. If that happens with the cloud too then Amazon will not be worth $265 per share.
I agree AWS represents a lot of potential growth. But my point was that Amazon is valued for AWS + its retail business, and that its retail business could really be hurting in the near future. Thus, solely the success of AWS is going to have a very hard time creating value for shareholders at $265 per share.