Garrett Dallas

Garrett Dallas
Contributor since: 2012
shorting this stock now is a bad idea
I appreciate the insight. Your range is currently $44 to $77, pretty wide. What is the step change on that range when you use a discount rate of 10%. Is 12% your standard for mid-caps?
"The company is not likely to expand meaningfully beyond its core customer segment and core yoga and running apparel - frankly, current store sizes do allow the company to expand meaningfully outside these categories." What is your opinion on the potential for Lulu to get into cycling as a third major product category? Products in the segment have been tested previously. Have you done any analysis on this TAM?
I think your point on new store locations is important, but I am surprised you did not mention their showroom strategy. I think this is cost effective strategy to optimize new locations: . Do you think that your long-term SSSG estimates in the best case scenario above, take a successful low cost development strategy into account? They may open fewer stores, but it could imply longer term sustainability of SSSG.
Thanks. I think you make a lot of strong points.
GE's investment in Clean Energy is a game changer. This is a good interview:
@ Javelins: I am not investing against an IRR. In the case of Whole Foods, I am evaluating the size of the company's addressable market 3-5 years out. Then I am looking at the current growth rate baked into the stock and determining that I believe there is a strong likelihood that WFM can beat these estimates. Therefore, as the stock price comes down short-term, I will continue to buy as long as the secular growth story is in tact.
I am buying using wide scales on the way down. I am in this name for the long run. You made the right trade.
@Javelins - A lot (but not all) of what I wrote has been reported by the company. Much of it even came from company presentations - see citations. I tried to pull out the pieces I thought were most worth writing about - development and pricing strategy, and how the two in tandem can drive increased revenue and margin expansion - leading to potential upside to growth prospects. Then I wanted to combine these crucial strategies to create a story line that demonstrates that this company has upside, regardless of a lofty valuation - in a way that is easy to understand for individual investors.
As far as original opinion/fact about the process of getting to 1,000 - the point is that new store development will accelerate because 1) they can build stores in new locations and maintain a consistent ROI; real estate opportunities will increase as their hurdle rate is lower, 2) by matching demand with supply in a specific market, they can potentially build multiple smaller stores in markets where they could have build only a single store in the past - without risking over-saturation (also, based on point #1) the locations of these stores could be stronger.
Gary, I think you are totally right. I do not count on a significant dip and bet that good results will continue. Also, I go back to the cash on the balance sheet and management's comments around increasing the dividend and buying back stock. Any pauses will as the valuation catches up will be short lived. I suggest investing long term and buying on pullbacks.
The LNG stations are discussed specifically in the context of America's Natural Gas Highway, a major initiative of the company in partnership with Flying J to build stations along major freight trucking corridors across the country.
As an informed USC Trojan I do my best to use the facts and avoid social/political commentary when possible.
See @Trainer's comment below. I was referring to an interview with T.Boone Pickens and I too definitely value his opinion highly in this matter.
I think you a are making a good decision. This is definitely a long term investment. KFC is an aspirational brand in many part of the world, including China.