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Garry Nauman

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  • The Coming Chinese Black Swan [View article]
    "The Black Swan Theory or Theory of Black Swan Events is a metaphor that encapsulates the concept that The event is a surprise (to the observer) and has a major impact. After the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight."

    The fact that you are predicting this makes it a non-black swan event. This is a known issue and therefore priced in some way into the Chinese market. 9/11 is a Black Swan event. While I agree with your premise, I believe your title is misleading.
    Jul 6 12:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Curious Case of the Economics of Netflix [View article]
    So you are saying that WM is similar to NFLX? The only simlarity I see is that that both deal with trash. WM hauls it away for a fee and NFLX streams it to you for a fee.
    Jun 6 04:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Agony Has Always Come Before Its Ecstasy [View article]
    Owning AAPL has been frustrating lately, no question. It's time will come soon enough. I would like for them to split 3/1 and announce huge 35-60B buyback to basically announce to the street that AAPL insiders believe the stock is under appreciated. Unfortunately, Steve Jobs health is hanging over the stock like a dark cloud.

    If anyone is interested, I blogged a few days ago similar ideas to this author. AAPL's time of consolidation may be about to end.

    seekingalpha.com/user/...
    May 17 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zaky: Apple's P/E Ratio Falls to Lowest Level Since Financial Crisis Despite 92% Earnings Growth [View article]
    Andy, as usual great information. I agree that AAPL is extremely underpriced. I would like for them to split 3/1 and announce huge 35-60B buyback to basically announce to the street that AAPL insiders believe the stock is under appreciated.

    If anyone is interested, I recently blogged an interesting chart that shows that AAPL's time of consolidation is nearly over.

    seekingalpha.com/user/...
    May 14 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • F5 Networks: Why the Sell-Off After a Small Earnings Miss? [View article]
    When a stock is trading at 70+ trailing P/E and 30+ forward P/E momentum investors need beats and guidance raises. When that doesn’t happen, the momentum leaves the stock. Even at 110, it’s still not cheap based on my calculations. Look at AAPL. They crushed numbers, raised guidance, and still closed red yesterday, which is a bad sign for all of tech. And you would expect FFIV to continue higher??? Your profile says “the majority of my trading is shorting during times a stock appears superior to its reality.” It looks to me like you missed this one.
    Jan 20 08:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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