Seeking Alpha

Gary A

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Gary A's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Dollar Danger: Iran's Oil Bourse Steps Up Activity [View article]
    Ah, Fallujah, the hidden massacre. Just another war crime from Bush and Cheney. I agree that China has put the breaks on. If their oil gets disrupted, they will sell treasuries like no tomorrow. And if there is to be a world recovery, China is crucial to that recovery.

    On Nov 01 02:13 PM Chris Cook wrote:

    > @Old trader
    >
    > Clearly the distrust has historical roots in respect of Perfidious
    > Albion which go back a long way.
    >
    > I think the US has tended to be more open in their self-interest
    > - at least in terms of energy security - than the Brits. Even though
    > I am a Brit myself, I recognise that if there were an Olympic gold
    > medal for dissimulation and hypocrisy, we would win it out of hand.
    >
    >
    > @User 357705
    >
    > I think that the US, under Bush, fully intended to bring democracy
    > to Iran, after Iraq. Real Men Go To Tehran etc etc
    >
    > But post Fallujah they recognised their mistake, and the 'nuclear
    > threat' (not visible anywhere before Fallujah) was created as a justification
    > for a strategy to bomb Iran (but not its oil fields) back to the
    > Stone Age, leading to regime change at best and a failed state at
    > worst.
    >
    > I think that in mid 2007 the Chinese asserted themselves for the
    > first time, and pulled the plug on Bush's adventurism. I see that
    > point as the "Suez Moment" for the US. ie In the same way that a
    > US threat to pull the economic plug forced the Brits and French to
    > pull out from Suez, so the Chinese probably 'persuaded' the US to
    > give up any idea of bombing Iran.
    >
    > So in summary the US will not bomb Iran - period - without Chinese
    > agreement, I think, which would only be forthcoming if the Iranians
    > went mad. And whatever the propaganda view of Iran may be, my view,
    > having met some of the Iranian decision makers, is that the top level
    > Iranians are anything but mad.
    >
    > So to bomb Iran that leaves only Israel, and - putting the issue
    > of US permission/approval to one side - I think it suits Israel to
    > demonise Iran, to distract from their settlement agenda, in the same
    > way that it suits Ahmadinejad to demonise Israel as a distraction
    > from a failing economy.
    Nov 1, 2009. 09:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Jobless Recovery, Part 1 [View article]
    This is the problem, a jobless recovery cannot be a robust recovery. No V shapes here. If you still believe that the world is coupled to the US consumer, it is just a matter of time before this jobless recovery loses steam and takes the world down with it.

    If we save and the Chinese save for a few years, then maybe there will be a non stimulus recovery, ie, a real recovery.
    Nov 1, 2009. 08:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Erratic Behavior by Fed and Treasury Helped Exacerbate Financial Crisis [View article]
    As long as bondholders take a significant hit before taxpayers, I would accept any regulation that would take these insolvent too big to fail down. Any regulation that is used effectively, limits the powers of the banking cartel and strengthens US sovereignty. But the devil will be in the details.
    Nov 1, 2009. 08:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bad Cs of Credit [View article]
    I don't think we should scam back. But if the housing bubble was based upon a scam, then we have the right to extricate ourselves from the scam, through walking away from loans that were toxic.

    If the credit card security market freezes,and the banks can't pass their cheap lending on to me to lower my financial obligation, it isn't my problem. I will walk away from credit card debt in a heartbeat. I am at the age where I just don't care. I lost 10k in the stock market because of the ponzi housing scam. If I walk away from credit card debt that is a bit higher than that, I fix my balance sheet at home, and I teach the banks never to mess with me again. Capitche?

    And if we all get our balance sheets in order and spend a little, the recession may not be so bad. I even think the government gives tacit approval to this line of reasoning: hubpages.com/hub/It-Is...
    Nov 1, 2009. 03:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • October Ends in Concern over the U.S. Economy's Ability to Generate Growth [View article]
    Well, it is clear to me that Wednesday or Thursday marked the last Fed purchases of treasury bonds. As a bond dealer from Cantor Fitzgerald said, this is time to reduce the value of other markets and scare the sheeple back into bonds: seekingalpha.com/insta...

    Of course he didn't use the word "scare", but really, he didn't have to. Lol.
    Nov 1, 2009. 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Too-Big-to-Fail Shouldn't Be Codified [View article]
    As long as taxpayers are in the back of the line, behind stock holders, bond holders, creditors, banks and snake oil salesmen, I am for the concept of the plan, though without the details in front of me. We need to take these insolvent big banks down as a matter of sovereign right. We cannot let the international banking cartel continue to rob the treasury as first option.
    Nov 1, 2009. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Dollar Up Stocks Down' Will Likely Change Soon [View article]
    There are lots and lots of deflationary pressures, Roger. I would see that fewer dollars turning over would imply scarcity. People are holding on to cash. All the cash on the sidelines is there because people don't trust market manipulation.

    We have a lot of deflationary pressures, including lack of credit, falling house prices, high unemployment, and of course the most important reason, the need to sell treasury bonds and scare the sheeple out of stocks into bonds. There are so many bonds that Bernanke will tank stocks in order to sell bonds: seekingalpha.com/insta...
    Nov 1, 2009. 12:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Bloomberg Fabricates U.S. Housing Numbers [View article]
    I was thinking that the author may want to look into the retail sales numbers. I think those are fudged as well but how would we prove it?
    Nov 1, 2009. 12:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. ** Is ** Different [View instapost]
    I agree, enforced deflation is exactly what is happening. Tim Geithner recently said that the recovery will be "rocky" because people will have to save. That is a stunning admission that the government cannot put the Humpty Dumpty of credit and consumer power that we saw in the go go years back together again. The egg is broken, long live savings accounts.

    But having said that, there is little incentive to save, at low rates of return. What if Americans just walk away from debt, which I advocate, and start spending with little savings? How will that impact the situation? You could have asset inflation eating away at the savings rate. That is why, I believe, that the government will have to have a slow, and even slower recovery. Americans cannot afford asset inflation if they want to prosper the old fashioned way, by savings to create real capital.
    Nov 1, 2009. 04:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage Modifications Are Statistically Insignificant [View article]
    Let's face it, the banks don't want to work these things out. They aren't too quick to foreclose, either. The can is being kicked down the road by almost every player in this industry. Hoping for better days.

    It is astonishing what the Fed and the government will do to postpone the day of reckoning. Yet this effort to prop up the economy would probably work if the US were not in so much debt already. That makes this whole bailout nation thing so much more risky.
    Oct 31, 2009. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Moody's Expects Higher Losses on Alt-A and Other RMBS [View article]
    It isn't just Moody's, but also Goldman Sachs who is predicting a decline in housing values. The pressure of deflation here is enormous. Of course I have advocated walking away from loans where practical, as a means of securing a sound family balance sheet. After all, I have argued here hubpages.com/hub/It-Is... that the government wants us to spend, spend, spend.

    Since they are not letting the banks restructure our debt or pay less on credit cards, the only way we can spend more is to walk away from our bad ponzi, loan sharking loans. It is, after all, the patriotic thing to do.

    Tell you a secret though. Don't spend the extra, but put it under a mattress for a rainy day. That day may be coming in the world of US economics.
    Oct 31, 2009. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This the End of 'Too Big to Fail'? [View article]
    You have it right. Who would be against this plan? You clean up the insolvent banks by hitting the stockholders, then the bondholders, then the other banks, and lastly the taxpayer. Whoever is against this is against the ability of the United States to excercise her sovereign power. This is close to treason in my view. We can disagree about certain aspects of the bill and if it is passed never to be used, then it is truly a joke. We will see.


    On Oct 28 04:16 PM tripleblack wrote:

    > [quote] It requires the failed firm's creditors and shareholders
    > to bear "first loss", and, if the brief is to be believed, only if
    > they are entirely wiped out and there remains a shortfall will assessments
    > be laid - on other large financial institutions, not the taxpayer.
    > This should result in large amounts of "social pressure" to stop
    > stupid actions, since the risk of them can fall on other large market
    > participants. [quote]
    >
    > This was always the idea behind the FDIC, a form of government supervised
    > self-insurance.
    Oct 31, 2009. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This the End of 'Too Big to Fail'? [View article]
    You guys don't get it. The creditors, leveraged hedge funds who hold the bonds of the financial institutions, should be taken down and risk spread around. Then other banks should pay, and then the taxpayer should be responsible for much less of this.

    Wildebeast, why would the Founding fathers be appalled at the ability of our government to find another way to insure taxpayers are not on the hook for this resolution of an insolvent bank? They fought the Revolutionary War because the Bank of England abused them!!
    Oct 31, 2009. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deloitte Sees Stronger than Expected U.S. Economic Recovery [View article]
    This guy just made the case for why there won't be a robust recovery.

    1: Oil prices are rising.

    2: Mortgage foreclosures and bankruptcy continue to rise.

    3: Bank deleveraging continues.

    4: Commercial real estate delinquencies rise.

    5: Inflation risk is growing.
    Oct 29, 2009. 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California: Entering Inflationary Depression [View article]
    I agree with what you say except that Cali can take the big banks down. Cali can destroy the financial system. Your other places that are doing well could come to a grinding halt unless something causes Cali to get this deleverage over with more quickly. Keeping housing inflated will only cause this process to take longer,making recovery longer.


    On Oct 29 12:11 PM bob adamson wrote:

    > In a continent wide nation of over 320 million people one must expect
    > that not all regions will do well economically (or badly) at all
    > times. Historically the Great Plains and Southern States have lagged
    > but are now, relatively speaking, on the economical upswing (the
    > focus here is on general trends, not the impact of the recession).
    > By contrast, California has boomed since the end of WW II until recently.
    > Other regions have waxed, waned or remained steady economically.
    >
    >
    > The impact of the current recession is particularly harsh in California
    > as it compounds and speeds up recent downward trends in its economy.
    > The US as a whole just managed to avoid falling into a deflationary
    > depression during the October 2008 to March 2009 period and it should
    > not be unexpected that certain regions actually did. The Old North
    > West did in the late 1970s and has again now. Parts of California
    > and Florida may also be in deflationary mode. Other regions of the
    > US are doing better or quite well. One advantage enjoyed by a large
    > and advanced economy is that when on part falls behind it is supported
    > and assisted to recover by the good economic health in other parts.
    >
    >
    > It is always tempting to read political cautionary mythology into
    > these ups and downs; this is a temptation to be avoided for the most
    > part as it obscures underlying patterns from view. In other words,
    > political choices play their part but they don’t explain economic
    > outcomes fully (or, in many cases, significantly).
    Oct 29, 2009. 06:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
3,156 Comments
5,506 Likes