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Gary Bourgeault

 
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  • Is Amazon Local Register About More Than Mobile Point-Of-Sale?
    Yesterday, 4:18 AM AMZN 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Why Amazon Local Register probably isn't the end game.
    • Offline and online analytics may provide another source of revenue for the online retail giant.
    • Amazon may have a much bigger reason for mobile point-of-sale, with offline retailers being the prize.
  • Are ESPN's Best Days Behind It?
    Yesterday, 2:19 AM DIS 11 Comments

    Summary

    • ESPN underperforms because of higher production costs and sports rights fees.
    • Company is continuing to shrink its reliance on advertising revenue, which should bring more consistent and predictable results.
    • In August Disney has launched its new SEC network on ESPN, which will be initially available in 60 million homes.
  • Activision Blizzard May Be Going All Marvel On Us
    Wed, Aug. 20 ATVI 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Reports of Activision looking to create a film and TV studio has attracted a lot of interest.
    • The key to success will be the team Activision brings on board, which will make or break the initiative.
    • If this is true, it's likely to take some time before it launches, as the company is noted for being extremely cautious with its game franchises.
  • Uranium Energy Corp.: Among The Better Options Of Uranium Companies
     • Wed, Aug. 20 UEC 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Un-hedged production puts it in an advantageous position against its peers.
    • In April, the Japanese government made the decision to include nuclear power as part of its national energy policy going forward.
    • China, India and Russia have a favorable stance on nuclear power, and will drive demand in the years ahead.
  • Why Retailers Could Be Headed For A Disaster
    Mon, Aug. 18 FDIS, FXD, PMR 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Most retailers are going to remain under pressure through the rest of 2014.
    • Weather can no longer be considered the reason for a poor last quarter of 2013.
    • Job growth isn't resulting in higher wages, which is a major reason consumers aren't spending as expected.
  • Twenty-First Century Fox And Why It's Been Volatile
    Fri, Aug. 15 FOXA, FOX Comment!

    Summary

    • Broadcast TV remains the biggest challenge for FOXA, as American Idol continues to slip.
    • Cable and film continue to be robust, led by affiliate and retransmission fees pricing power, and good film choices.
    • 2016 could be a huge break-out year, with political spend soaring and Avatar 2 to be released.
  • Why Halliburton Will Grow Its Business In Mexico
    Thu, Aug. 14 HAL 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Mexico's lack of expertise, technology and capital has resulted in major energy reforms, which Halliburton will benefit from.
    • With natural gas supply in the country under pressure, Halliburton has a chance to move fairly quickly in this area of expertise it serves in.
    • Risks are always abound in Mexico, but a new commission should help to mitigate that risk and provide consistency and transparency.
  • Apollo Group In For A Volatile Ride In The Short Term
    Wed, Aug. 13 APOL 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Stronger branding of the University of Phoenix may lead it to be considered more of a premium brand, which could result in pricing power over time.
    • Attempts to attract new students are resulting in less revenue per student.
    • Diversifying globally may mitigate some of the regulatory risk in the United States.
  • Grand Canyon Education's Outlook Mixed After Decent Quarter
     • Sat, Aug. 9 LOPE 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Grand Canyon Education's good quarter isn't enough to impress investors, as the near-term future is uncertain.
    • The success of its retention rate has created the challenge of replenishing graduating students with new enrollees.
    • Higher quality students are receiving more assistance, which will put downward pressure on revenue per student going forward.
  • Strayer Education And The Murky Road Ahead
     • Thu, Aug. 7 STRA Comment!

    Summary

    • Recent share price increases are making me very wary of Strayer.
    • One bright spot with the company is its premium brand - the Jack Welch Management Institute.
    • With no guarantee enrollment at the company will grow, it's a toss of the dice how it will perform over the next year.
  • Will Turquoise Hill's Time Ever Come?
     • Mon, Jul. 28 TRQ 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Even though mostly negative news continues to weigh on Turquoise Hill, it has found a bottom and range, and continues to move in it.
    • No matter what happens, the massive resource at Oyu Tolgoi isn't going away, and that bodes well for the long-term outlook for the miner.
    • There is only one thing in the short term that really matters, and that is what needs to be considered if deciding on adding to or initiating a position.
  • What Gives American Public Education Hope, But Why It Will Remain Volatile For Some Time
     • Fri, Jul. 25 APEI 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Getting students willing to finish their education is the key to American Public Education's long-term growth.
    • Increasing competition puts American Public Education in a good position to expand via acquisitions because of inevitable consolidation, although most other competitors are facing similar problems.
    • Plunging military enrollment and policy changes continue to weigh on the company, increasing its volatility.
  • Universal Technical Institute Will Remain Volatile As It Struggle With New Enrollments
       • Wed, Jul. 23 UTI 1 Comment

    Summary

    • New enrollments for 2014 expected to be down year-over-year, while retention rates fall.
    • A strategy of seeking and marketing to students who are a better fit for UTI is a good strategy if it can be executed.
    • Competition, resistance to higher prices, and government regulations are all headwinds the company must overcome to be successful over time.
  • News Corp. And Its War To Rise Above Its Competitors
       • Mon, Jul. 21 NWS Comment!

    Summary

    • News Corp.'s quick moves point to rapid migration from over-reliance on print revenue.
    • Acquisitions of Storify and Harlequin point to the growth strategy of the company, which has a lot of potential.
    • Amplify will continue to boost costs as it attempts to break into the extremely lucrative digital education market.
  • Time To Take A Quick Look At Denison Mines
       • Mon, Jul. 21 DNN 9 Comments

    Summary

    • The biggest obstacle now faced by Denison Mines and the uranium industry is a psychological one.
    • Once Japan brings a couple of reactors back on line, we could see a huge jump in share price.
    • Over the long term Denison and uranium are still very strong, as the fundamentals of nuclear power haven't changed.
  • Can NY Times Spend Its Way Out Of Declining Print Circulation?
       • Fri, Jul. 18 NYT Comment!

    Summary

    • Increasing costs will bite into earnings for the rest of 2014.
    • Print circulation continues to plunge. Digital ad is struggling to keep pace, although digital subscription is fairly healthy.
    • New initiatives have a chance of attracting new readers and demographic, but it'll take time for them to gain traction, if they do at all.
  • Dreamworks Animation Is At A Crucial Juncture
       • Fri, Jul. 18 DWA 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Dreamworks' struggle to successfully introduce new film franchises is hitting the company hard.
    • After three of its last four movies crashed, Dreamworks is lowering its cost basis for new releases, in order to give them a better chance of making money.
    • The multifaceted approach to franchise success is weak, as mixed results undermine the strategy of the company.
    • Why the underperforming "How to Train Your Dragon 2" is such a disaster.
  • Gray Television Should Surprise To The Upside Over The Next 3 Years
       • Wed, Jul. 16 GTN 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Gray Television ready to jump after closing of Hoak deal.
    • Political mid-term spend may surprise to the upside, which would by a big catalyst for the company.
    • Retransmission fees set to be renewed in Q1 2015 will give another boost to Gray after the strong fourth quarter of 2014.
  • Entravision Communications May Be Close To Breaking Out
       • Mon, Jul. 14 EVC 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Advertisers have considered Hispanic marketing secondary, but that's starting to change, Entravision should benefit from that.
    • With Hispanics the major growth market of the future, once advertisers enter it, they tend to stick to it, even when cutting back on spend in other demographics.
    • Entravision lack of urgency to grow through acquisition weighs on the company, although the Hispanic market in general resists this.
    • The company should start to move up in share price, but general broadcast competitors may be more attractive.
  • Why Media General Has A Lot More Room To Grow
       • Sat, Jul. 12 MEG 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The merger with New Young has brought better synergies than projected, resulting in millions in savings.
    • Media General got a big boost after the Supreme court ruled against Aereo, which should continue to be a positive catalyst.
    • LIN should result in a major move in the share price of MEG, as it will then reach 74 network affiliate stations, and 23% of U.S. households.
    • Soaring political spend will drive revenue and earnings in the second half of 2014.
  • Nexstar Poised To Continue Growth Momentum For At Least Two Years, Probably Three
       • Thu, Jul. 10 NXST Comment!

    Summary

    • Cash flow remains a key strength for Nexstar, as it gives the company flexibility to make deals and pay down debt.
    • The ruling against Aereo should be a strong catalyst for Nexstar, as concerns over the disruption of the broadcast business model have been laid to rest in this area.
    • Retranmission fees remain strong, and we have yet to see where the ceiling on that will be.
    • A very real threat of people cutting the cord remains in sight, although I don't see that happening for several years out, if it does at all.
  • Why Sinclair Broadcasting Group Is Still Undervalued
       • Wed, Jul. 9 SBGI 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Sinclair's acquisitions and growth not being rewarded by the market.
    • Concerns over digital distribution disruptions are over-stated in the short term, as it will be several years before that takes effect, if it ever does.
    • The heavy debt load and debt-to-equity continues to drag on the company, even though its free cash flow easily handles it.
  • Cabela's Positioned For Strong Growth, Even With Comps Weighing On Company
       • Mon, Jul. 7 CAB 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Comps will continue to weigh on Cabela's at least through the second quarter of 2014.
    • Why promotions didn't work and how that shouldn't be a problem in the future.
    • CAB branded products are increasing in sales, and will be a differentiator over the long term.
  • Why AMC Networks' Latest Moves Are Underwhelming
       • Tue, Jun. 24 AMCX Comment!

    Summary

    • AMC Networks looking to internet subscription video service for boost.
    • Pushing back "Better Call Saul" to 2015 could hurt the company in the fourth quarter.
    • Chellomedia acquisition could expand its international presence, even though many of the markets are small.
  • ComScore Looks Ready To Climb Even Higher
       • Tue, Jun. 24 SCOR Comment!

    Summary

    • With Google and Yahoo deals close to being implemented, it'll add at minimum incremental revenue to the company's top and bottom lines.
    • Digital data demand will be a strong catalyst for a long time, as content providers and distributors look for ways to further monetize their products.
    • As comScore approaches profitability, it will add a boost to its share price.
    • The demand for deeper and accurate mobile metrics is another growth vehicle for comScore.
  • Regal Entertainment Group Is Undervalued, Look For Better Performance Ahead
       • Sat, Jun. 14 RGC Comment!

    Summary

    • The differentiator in battle against home entertainment, and what Regal Entertainment needs to do to succeed.
    • Low-cost initiatives offer promise for the company in the years ahead.
    • A low P/E and P/S ratio point to Regal Entertainment being undervalued.
  • Lack Of Sense Of Urgency In Domestic Market, Concessions Has Hurt Cinemark
       • Fri, Jun. 13 CNK 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Perceived volatility in Latin America continues to weigh on CNK.
    • Lack of visibility concerning potential acquisitions holding share price back.
    • Satisfaction concerning traditional concessions result in lower food and beverage sales per customer.
  • Is Carmike Cinemas Climbing Too Fast?
       • Tue, Jun. 10 CKEC 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Carmike Cinemas continues its aggressive acquisition spree, which has resulted in it outperforming its peers handily over the last two years.
    • The company continues to boost its per theater revenue and earnings while it's growing in size.
    • There's no doubt a secondary catalyst has been expectations that the company is one of the prime acquisition candidates in the business.
  • Has Lions Gate Fallen From A Roar To A Whimper?
       • Sat, Jun. 7 LGF 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Why the most recent earnings report of LGF is not indicative of the health and long-term performance of the company.
    • What the real competitive advantage of Lionsgate is, and why it's a powerful moat.
    • The market is underrating its TV unit because of focus on film slate.
  • Why Patience With AMC Entertainment Holdings Will Be Rewarded
    Thu, Jun. 5 AMC Comment!

    Summary

    • AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) believes there is plenty of organic growth in its current assets.
    • Innovation and execution are going to drive AMC going forward, as it provides different experiences and price points to different demographics.
    • Why AMC should be able to continue to beat its competition by focusing on quality rather than quantity.
  • Will The Martha Stewart Brand Ever Recover, Or Has It Even Started?
       • Wed, Jun. 4 MSO 1 Comment

    Summary

    • There is nothing to suggest the Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia (MSO) brand will improve its image.
    • The company has little or no known catalysts outside of cutting costs.
    • Merchandising is the only profitable segment of the company, and that is just barely hanging on.
  • AAR Corp. Headwinds Go Beyond Cyclical Nature Of Aerospace Industry
       • Fri, May. 23 AIR 1 Comment

    Summary

    • AAR looking to product mix to overcome lower defense spending.
    • Failure to replace completed projects contributed strongly to the weak recent performance.
    • The company is looking to rebound in cyclical Landing Gear and Component Repair business for boost, but cyclical issues don't entirely explain its weakness.