Gary Gordon

Why Junk Bond ETFs Have Been Cleaning Up

HYD works... you just have to consider the effect of exceptionally low volme on the bid/ask spread.

Just 5 ETFs and You're Set? Buy-n-Hold Silliness Still Carries On

This is not my disclosure... the folks at SA modified my disclosure from my site, www.ETFexpert.com. Belieeeeeeeeeeeeeeve me... I know exactly what I am.

Gary Gordon, MS, CFP is the owner of Pacific Park Financial, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC. Thanks for catching it... and I will let SA know.

In the meantime, here is my disclosure from www.ETFexpert.com:

Disclosure Statement: ETF Expert is a web log ("blog") that makes the world of ETFs easier to understand. Pacific Park Financial, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC, may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds and/or index funds mentioned above. Investors who are interested in money management services may visit the Pacific Park Financial, Inc. web site.

On Jun 23 10:07 AM Wildhawk wrote:

> Gary- not to get all technical on you, but you might want to change
> your disclosure statement at the bottom of the article.
>
> I can assure you that you are not a Registered Investment Adviser
> with the SEC, but that your firm may be. People are not Investment
> Advisers- firms are. You are an Investment Adviser Representative,
> a representative of your firm, which is an Investment Adviser, registered
> with the SEC. It's a nit, but it's the kind of nit that can get you
> fined by FINRA (if you are member of a B/D) or the SEC for false
> advertising. It's also the kind of thing that the CFP Board of Standards
> looks very unkindly at.
>
> Just a word of advice from a former industry guy who spent several
> years having to look at disclosures and the like...

PowerShares DB G10 Currency Fund Has Potential

Forex would be preferable, but yes... track record plays into it. What's more, they are expensive AND the distributions only come once a year.

That Wasn't a Bear Market, This Is a Bear Market!

Your thesis reads well in theory. However, the "average Joe" DID NOT merely "buy a smattering of mutual funds, individual stocks, sector ETFs." That's not a true accounting of historical events.

In the previous bear market, you had irrational greed for technology stocks and the so-called New Economy, resembling the irrational greed for real estate in the low interest rate environ that followed. People were heavily over-allocated to large-cap tech in the Nasdaq. Losses were 76% for the Nasdaq.

The market based wealth of most average Joe investors is/was based inside the 401k. The overwhelming majority of 401ks didn't even have small-cap funds inside them. That puts a further dent in the idea that you can use an equal-weight analysis.

Third, buy-n-hold investing was firmly entrenched in the minds of virtually all investors in 2000. The average Joe rode all of it down, mostly consisting of "get-rich-quick, tech fever" losses. This time, rational fear and irrational fear caused many more folks to sell earlier, rightly or wrongly, so many more people reduced the extent of their losses. Not so in the last bear.

As a radio personality, writer and money manager, I witnessed losses in the previous bear that far exceeded 50% in most cases. In fact, many were looking at 75% losses thanks to the tech heavy allocation of the "average Joe." In this bear, there were more efforts to mitgate thoses losses, since people weren't willing to suffer as badly as they had in the 2000-2002 period.

Obviously, from an emotional perspective, this bear is far, far worse. The last bear did not seem as bad due to home price appreciation. This bear feels worse because of a more severe recession and the epic real estate decline.

Nevertheless, if numbers are going to be used as though people were invested in a smattering, equal-weighted fashion, both then and now, that's inaccurate. It is also a bigger asssumption to asusme that everyone bought and held and hoped the way that they did in 2000-2002... many gave in earlier.

Deflation or Inflation ETFs? Why The Bond and Commodity Markets Are Forward-Looking

The primary intent of the feature is to talk about forward-looking investments. It appears that smarter money anticipates significant inflation.

Keep in mind, there are many ways to present yield for a particular ETF. One might argue that the last month's $0 payment means that $0 will continue throughout 2009 such that the annual yield is 0%. Another might argue that the 2.33% SEC 30-day yield which accounts for payments in the prior 30 days is the most accurate.

Yet the simple fact remains, the ANNUAL yield is 6.25% based on what was paid throughout seemingly erratic payment dates in 2008. Equally important, many investors believe that inflation will return... and if so... it is likely that the ANNUAL yield will approximate this percentage. One can see the top 10 holdings as of 12/31/2008 at this PDF file to see how a 6% yield may be anticipated.
us.ishares.com/content...

USL Oil Fund Struts Its Stuff

Starkoski is troubled participant. He continues to speak about "Peak Oil" as if he's M. King Hubbert himself. Flow rate is not the only factor in the price of oil, even starkoski should know better. (Though he apparently does not.) Supply and demand is a factor, and nothing in supply and demand suggests oil doubling from $70 to $140 in a single year. Dollar destruction is a factor, and in the near term, it may indeed appreciate against world currencies. Speculation is a factor, and with 20 times more oil being traded than delivered, speculators have moved from dot-com to real estate to commodities. Psychology is a factor, and everyone has been pushing the long side. But if there's enough of an economic slowdown, a push to drill, a push for alternatives, oil can and will come down in price. Starkoski, get a grip.

Stocks to Buy Before the Oil Bubble Bursts

Starkoski is troubled participant. He continues to speak about "Peak Oil" as if he's M. King Hubbert himself. Flow rate is not the only factor in the price of oil, even starkoski should know better. (Though he apparently does not.) Supply and demand is a factor, and nothing in supply and demand suggests oil doubling from $70 to $140 in a single year. Dollar destruction is a factor, and in the near term, it may indeed appreciate against world currencies. Speculation is a factor, and with 20 times more oil being traded than delivered, speculators have moved from dot-com to real estate to commodities. Psychology is a factor, and everyone has been pushing the long side. But if there's enough of an economic slowdown, a push to drill, a push for alternatives, oil can and will come down in price. Starkoski, get a grip.

John Hussman: Is There a Possibility of $60 Oil?

Starkoski is troubled participant. He continues to speak about "Peak Oil" as if he's M. King Hubbert himself. Flow rate is not the only factor in the price of oil, even starkoski should know better. (Though he apparently does not.) Supply and demand is a factor, and nothing in supply and demand suggests oil doubling from $70 to $140 in a single year. Dollar destruction is a factor, and in the near term, it may indeed appreciate against world currencies. Speculation is a factor, and with 20 times more oil being traded than delivered, speculators have moved from dot-com to real estate to commodities. Psychology is a factor, and everyone has been pushing the long side. But if there's enough of an economic slowdown, a push to drill, a push for alternatives, oil can and will come down in price. John Hussman is not only credible, he's a fine money manager. Starkoski, get a grip.