Why 'Dr. Doom' Is Buying Stocks (Why I Will Wait On Stock ETFs) [View article]
Redqid,
With all due respect to what you think you have read or heard... you are entirely incorrect. Here is the track record evidence for 2009: http://bit.ly/12rMTWy
And that's just 2009. You can Google his erroneous calls for stock collapses throughout 2004-2008. He was most certainly not long on stocks... at least not in any of his commentary. I do not have access to his account holdings.
Time For Rotating Positions In Your ETF Portfolio [View article]
Many money managers, myself included, have been rotating for months. Some who have commented may benefit by reading (not skimming) the commentary at the link below. http://bit.ly/Xi9F4r
Into the great wide open? I haven't seen you since you approached me at an ETF conference a few years back. And I haven't seen Mike in god knows how long.
Seeking Alpha has been very good to me over the years, though it is becoming a bit more crowded. Consider sending material to other prominent portals as well (e.g., theStreet.com). I also recommend that you look at ambitious start-ups; they may feature you/your ideas prominently.
Give me a buzz or an e-message whenever you'd like.
The Last Gasp Before Euro ETFs, Unhedged European ETFs Slide [View article]
A.L. and Golden
Aggressive investors who trade more frequently are not buy-n-holders. I discussed it as a trade... not as a long-term hold. EUO, like all of the "Inverse ETFs," track indexes daily; they do not track indexes annually.
What does that mean? It means you can't hold them. If one is not clear about daily compounding versus annual compounding, one should get more familiar with the differences before investing in a "Short ETF."
For those who do understand, they should take a look at EUO breaking above a 50-day moving average in mid-February. I discussed EUO's importance in my Feb 20 commentary one month earlier: http://bit.ly/Z3qYpN
In nearly one month's time, EUO has gained about 5.75%. Traders are likely to continue push it for a while longer.
Do These Country ETFs Provide Better Value Than U.S. Stock ETFs? [View article]
Palma308
>>read a lot of SA articles; it amazes me the spread you can find >>on any given day what the current PE is. The 20.7 shown here >>for the U.S. is the highest I have seen
You have not interpreted the data accurately. The article is remarkably clear that we are talking about 10-year cyclically adjusted P/E... aka CAPE... not Current P/E. The 10-year trailing P/E also goes by another name... Shiller's P/E.
Now What? ETF Investors Can Chase Performance Or Exercise Discipline [View article]
GetGL,
I wrote: "While I will not buy-n-hold it for seniors, I do use it." PFF is a great ETF for seniors who have an adviser and/or who understand how to manage downside risk.
Take a look at PFF on any chart during the 2007-2009 bear market... or even in other periods. That is stomach-churning volatility that few seniors could stomach... not without a plan to exit or hedge.
How Do You Know When An ETF Is Actually A Bargain? [View article]
ExBingoAddict... Bingo!
PollySerial... you picked up the point of the brief piece as well.
I can understand those who wanted a meatier editorial. I manage money for a living, so I cannot always put forward a phenomonal and lengthy feature. Yet, on balance, anyone can review my newsfeed to see a wealth of outstanding content.
As for any cynic who doesn't understand that SA republishes articles from my long-running ETF Expert site... that SA does not pay this author per click... that presidents of SEC-registered investment advisers are handsomely compensated in their primary role already... I'm not sure what to tell you. You can always choose to read another ETF enthusiast.
How ETF Investors Might Get In On Single-Family Rentals [View article]
Alan,
>>Jim Cramer lamented last year over the challenges...
I'm sorry, unless I'm writing about flip-flopping and/or questionable Bear Stearns comments, I'm not particularly interested in Cramer.
>>I know you cited it for correlation reasons, >>but recent correlation might not hold in the future.
Correlation is the only reason... but it is not one to be overlooked. What's more, I never buy-n-hold... I am not looking for 3-year or 5-year correlations. Besides, they wouldn't exist since the potential asset class is brand new in the REIT world.
>>Now, those other two REITs you mentioned >>I need to look into those...
A handful of individual REITs, mostly recent IPOs. They are true to the space, yet individual securities do not offer diversification. Moreover, 90% of all IPOs will close below the original offer price with 18 months.
In all, there are no perfect solutions here. I gave a few ideas, warts and all.
Abandoning High Yield Bond ETFs? Rethink Your Premises [View article]
Cranky... appreciation.
Flash... you wrote, "people have predicting a top in bond for years." Precisely. And that prediction has failed miserably. Diversified high yield corporates continued to perform.
High Oak... you wrote, "when spreads compress..." But that hasn't happened significantly... not yet. When they do, nearly all yield-oriented income assets will be hurt. If you read my article, I made the points that: (a) one shouldn't add to or abandon intermediate high yield, (b) the markets themselves will tell you when to lighten up on intermediate high yield, (c) one should consider three different investment possibilities rather than adding to intermediate high yield (i.e., BSJH, AUNZ, PFXF).
If You Insist On Investing In A European ETF, Hedge Against The Euro [View article]
Paulo,
I agree wholeheartedly. As you know, I am not and have not been investing in Europe directly; I am investing in Asia Pacific ETFs.
That said, ETF investors who do choose to invest in Europe need to understand their alternatives. Blindly choosing an unhedged single country fund like France (EWQ) is far riskier than a hedged regional fund like HEDJ.
Are Treasury Bond ETFs Forecasting An Ohio Recount? [View article]
User 447425,
The answer to your question(s) is summed up in the final two paragraphs. Here you go:
"In my estimation, however, both the election and the fiscal cliff will be resolved. What’s more, with leaders around the globe demonstrating strong biases toward fiscal and monetary easing — both conventional and unconventional — risk assets will find a way to move higher.
If the markets do pull back sharply, individual investors with high cash positions should consider ETFs like SPDR Retail (XRT) and Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (VIG). Buying the pullback ensures a lower entry point, and stop-limit loss orders protect against extreme downside risks from there."
Economically Sensitive Stock ETFs Have Struggled Since The Fed's Mortgage-Backed Bond Initiative [View article]
User 447425,
>>I do not think QE3 was ever meant to affect corporate >>profitability, sales or new hires.
Well, then, you are directly contradicting what Fed Chairman Bernanke has said about the purpose of QE3; that is, the economy is weak and requires stimulus to positively impact the employment picture. Moreover, employment is part of their dual mandate.
>>The whole point of QEinfinity is to simply force capital to >>stay in "risk on" investments.
Again, it is not the job of the Fed to push stocks and riskier assets higher. Obviously, they recognize (and surely discuss) the probability that pushing bond yields lower reflates demand for riskier assets. They are hoping for a "wealth effect" in home prices and stock prices because that would benefit the overall economy (new hires, sales, corporate profitability, etc.).
Profit Takers Bid Farewell To The Highest Flying Stock ETFs - Should You? [View article]
>>You mentioned questionable fundamentals with no explanation
>>what you mean by that
Philippines... highest P/E in Asia. Perhaps I should have put that in.
>>Or saying it's "running on fumes" with no details on why that is so
Please read the very next statement in the paragraph, or click on the link, and learn about lengthy periods of high relative strength factor scores.
>>You haven't mentioned, at all, that the country's sovereign debt has just been raised
Please reread the 2nd sentence of the second paragraph... where I wrote just that.
G
Why 'Dr. Doom' Is Buying Stocks (Why I Will Wait On Stock ETFs) [View article]
With all due respect to what you think you have read or heard... you are entirely incorrect. Here is the track record evidence for 2009:
http://bit.ly/12rMTWy
And that's just 2009. You can Google his erroneous calls for stock collapses throughout 2004-2008. He was most certainly not long on stocks... at least not in any of his commentary. I do not have access to his account holdings.
Time For Rotating Positions In Your ETF Portfolio [View article]
Time For Rotating Positions In Your ETF Portfolio [View article]
http://bit.ly/Xi9F4r
How To Trade ETFs On Their Highs [View article]
Into the great wide open? I haven't seen you since you approached me at an ETF conference a few years back. And I haven't seen Mike in god knows how long.
Seeking Alpha has been very good to me over the years, though it is becoming a bit more crowded. Consider sending material to other prominent portals as well (e.g., theStreet.com). I also recommend that you look at ambitious start-ups; they may feature you/your ideas prominently.
Give me a buzz or an e-message whenever you'd like.
G-Man (G-Hambre to Cubanos)
The Last Gasp Before Euro ETFs, Unhedged European ETFs Slide [View article]
Aggressive investors who trade more frequently are not buy-n-holders. I discussed it as a trade... not as a long-term hold. EUO, like all of the "Inverse ETFs," track indexes daily; they do not track indexes annually.
What does that mean? It means you can't hold them. If one is not clear about daily compounding versus annual compounding, one should get more familiar with the differences before investing in a "Short ETF."
For those who do understand, they should take a look at EUO breaking above a 50-day moving average in mid-February. I discussed EUO's importance in my Feb 20 commentary one month earlier:
http://bit.ly/Z3qYpN
In nearly one month's time, EUO has gained about 5.75%. Traders are likely to continue push it for a while longer.
Gary
Do These Country ETFs Provide Better Value Than U.S. Stock ETFs? [View article]
>>read a lot of SA articles; it amazes me the spread you can find
>>on any given day what the current PE is. The 20.7 shown here
>>for the U.S. is the highest I have seen
You have not interpreted the data accurately. The article is remarkably clear that we are talking about 10-year cyclically adjusted P/E... aka CAPE... not Current P/E. The 10-year trailing P/E also goes by another name... Shiller's P/E.
Gary
Now What? ETF Investors Can Chase Performance Or Exercise Discipline [View article]
I wrote: "While I will not buy-n-hold it for seniors, I do use it." PFF is a great ETF for seniors who have an adviser and/or who understand how to manage downside risk.
Take a look at PFF on any chart during the 2007-2009 bear market... or even in other periods. That is stomach-churning volatility that few seniors could stomach... not without a plan to exit or hedge.
Gary
How Do You Know When An ETF Is Actually A Bargain? [View article]
PollySerial... you picked up the point of the brief piece as well.
I can understand those who wanted a meatier editorial. I manage money for a living, so I cannot always put forward a phenomonal and lengthy feature. Yet, on balance, anyone can review my newsfeed to see a wealth of outstanding content.
As for any cynic who doesn't understand that SA republishes articles from my long-running ETF Expert site... that SA does not pay this author per click... that presidents of SEC-registered investment advisers are handsomely compensated in their primary role already... I'm not sure what to tell you. You can always choose to read another ETF enthusiast.
How Long Will Stock Market Exuberance Last? These 3 ETFs May Tell You [View article]
Bullish or bearish? This will help.
http://seekingalpha.co...
How ETF Investors Might Get In On Single-Family Rentals [View article]
>>Jim Cramer lamented last year over the challenges...
I'm sorry, unless I'm writing about flip-flopping and/or questionable Bear Stearns comments, I'm not particularly interested in Cramer.
>>I know you cited it for correlation reasons,
>>but recent correlation might not hold in the future.
Correlation is the only reason... but it is not one to be overlooked. What's more, I never buy-n-hold... I am not looking for 3-year or 5-year correlations. Besides, they wouldn't exist since the potential asset class is brand new in the REIT world.
>>Now, those other two REITs you mentioned
>>I need to look into those...
A handful of individual REITs, mostly recent IPOs. They are true to the space, yet individual securities do not offer diversification. Moreover, 90% of all IPOs will close below the original offer price with 18 months.
In all, there are no perfect solutions here. I gave a few ideas, warts and all.
Abandoning High Yield Bond ETFs? Rethink Your Premises [View article]
Flash... you wrote, "people have predicting a top in bond for years." Precisely. And that prediction has failed miserably. Diversified high yield corporates continued to perform.
High Oak... you wrote, "when spreads compress..." But that hasn't happened significantly... not yet. When they do, nearly all yield-oriented income assets will be hurt. If you read my article, I made the points that: (a) one shouldn't add to or abandon intermediate high yield, (b) the markets themselves will tell you when to lighten up on intermediate high yield, (c) one should consider three different investment possibilities rather than adding to intermediate high yield (i.e., BSJH, AUNZ, PFXF).
If You Insist On Investing In A European ETF, Hedge Against The Euro [View article]
I agree wholeheartedly. As you know, I am not and have not been investing in Europe directly; I am investing in Asia Pacific ETFs.
That said, ETF investors who do choose to invest in Europe need to understand their alternatives. Blindly choosing an unhedged single country fund like France (EWQ) is far riskier than a hedged regional fund like HEDJ.
Gary
Are Treasury Bond ETFs Forecasting An Ohio Recount? [View article]
The answer to your question(s) is summed up in the final two paragraphs. Here you go:
"In my estimation, however, both the election and the fiscal cliff will be resolved. What’s more, with leaders around the globe demonstrating strong biases toward fiscal and monetary easing — both conventional and unconventional — risk assets will find a way to move higher.
If the markets do pull back sharply, individual investors with high cash positions should consider ETFs like SPDR Retail (XRT) and Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (VIG). Buying the pullback ensures a lower entry point, and stop-limit loss orders protect against extreme downside risks from there."
Economically Sensitive Stock ETFs Have Struggled Since The Fed's Mortgage-Backed Bond Initiative [View article]
>>I do not think QE3 was ever meant to affect corporate
>>profitability, sales or new hires.
Well, then, you are directly contradicting what Fed Chairman Bernanke has said about the purpose of QE3; that is, the economy is weak and requires stimulus to positively impact the employment picture. Moreover, employment is part of their dual mandate.
>>The whole point of QEinfinity is to simply force capital to
>>stay in "risk on" investments.
Again, it is not the job of the Fed to push stocks and riskier assets higher. Obviously, they recognize (and surely discuss) the probability that pushing bond yields lower reflates demand for riskier assets. They are hoping for a "wealth effect" in home prices and stock prices because that would benefit the overall economy (new hires, sales, corporate profitability, etc.).
Gary