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Gary Gordon

 
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  • 5 ETF Indicators Battle The Risk-On Herd [View article]
    Stockcharts.com... the chart is in the article above. The 50-day SMA for Vanguard Long Term Bond (BLV) crossed above its 200-day SMA. (See the chart in the article.)
    Feb 26 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China ETF Bashers Cannot See The Forest For The Trees [View article]
    Jockey,

    There are a wide variety of ETFs purporting to represent China exposure. Depending on the one that you use, the long-term trend (200-day) may be favorable for a trend-follower.

    Here is a short list of China ETFs where the slope of the 200-day is positive and the current price is above the 200-day: (1) GXC, (2) HAO, (3) PGJ, (4) CHIQ, (4) CQQQ, (5) YAO, (6) CQQQ, (7) ECNS.

    Keep in mind, I am not recommending that investors buy one or more of these ETFs. I wrote commentary that questioned the pervasive negativity on China, and suggested that investors keep an open mind going forward. That means, one should continue to track a wide variety of technical and fundamental indicators involving China ETFs.

    Gary
    Feb 20 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Ways An ETF Investor Can Approach The Increasingly Erratic Stock Market [View article]
    Cal,

    You are absolutely correct on the way in which insurance works... and I am okay with it. I am glad to hear that you are getting better with the psychological aspect of taking small losses to avoid the possibility of a huge hit. I am even happier to learn that your portfolio is working better for you!

    Best,

    G
    Feb 6 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Ways An ETF Investor Can Approach The Increasingly Erratic Stock Market [View article]
    Y,

    Gratitude.

    Keep in mind, I primarily manage assets as the president of a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC. That said, I did offer a subscription-based e-letter in 2010. People loved it... but with only 200 subscribers... it was not financially viable. I would have continued if 1000 subs had joined in year 1.

    In any event, I am glad that you enjoy reading my commentary!

    Best,

    G
    Feb 6 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Telecom, Utilities ETFs Ride The 'Risk-Off' Train Alongside Lower Interest Rates [View article]
    Shoe,


    It was an end-of-the-year (2014) forecast, but yes... thank you for recognizing my commentary on deflationary scares and the possibility of lower rates.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Gary
    Jan 29 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETFs Let You Invest With Your Head, Rather Than Your Heart [View article]
    H,


    Naturally, a variety of ETFs hit stop-loss limits and broke below 200-day moving averages circa the first week of August 2011, leaving 35%-50% in cash in most client portfolios. The heightened volatility led to higher-than-usual cash levels for roughly two months. Circa mid-October, depending on the risk of the client, dollars moved back into income producers and/or wish-list domestic equity ETFs.

    You can see this at many of my articles from Oct 2011:
    http://bit.ly/1jLzC5L
    http://bit.ly/1jLzAuE
    http://bit.ly/1jLzAuF
    http://bit.ly/1jLzC5Q

    As the article above shows, EWM was essentially flat from the time I sold to the current day. And while not all investments were monster gainers upon reinvestment, all of the reinvested dollars were successful outcomes; that is, reinvested cash resulted in realized or unrealized big gains, small gains, or realized small losses. Clearly, most domestic assets have been up rather dramatically since the first week of August 2011.

    More on my investing process?
    http://bit.ly/11RtnHW

    G
    Jan 24 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETFs Let You Invest With Your Head, Rather Than Your Heart [View article]
    Dear User,


    Beta is one measure of risk that investors should consider. In most articles, including this one, I also discuss the risks associated with an asset price falling below a key moving average like the 200-day moving average. Similarly, in most articles, like this one, I talk about the benefits of reducing risk with stop-limit orders when an asset's drawdown exceeds a pre-determined percentage drop.

    It follows that it does not appear you have accurately addressed the intention(s) of the editorial. For example, you chose to quote a line from the piece where I mentioned that EWM's performance achieved 3x the gains of the S&P 500 with less beta risk in 2010. For unknown reasons, you then proceeded to talk about the Sharp Ratio and drawdowns of the two assets from 2011-2013. The apples-to-oranges comments do not apply.

    What is relevant? In the above-mentioned piece, I talk about the many reasons for purchasing EWM in August of 2009 and the primary reason for selling EWM in August of 2011. During the calendar year 2010, or if you prefer, in the two-year period 8/2009-8/2011, the drawdowns and the beta for EWM were less than those for the S&P 500. Risk as a function of long-term trendline breaches (200-day) were also less for EWM than the S&P 500. Those are three examples of how EWM was less risky than the S&P 500 in the period discussed.

    If you'd like to calculate the Sharp Ratio from 8/2009-8/2011 for both EWM and SPY, feel free to do so. However, you will have missed the broader intent of my commentary; that is, exchange-traded funds help money managers/Registered Investment Advisers with the SEC like myself invest with their heads, not their hearts. As described in the piece, it was beneficial for me to own EWM when I did, and it was beneficial to sell the asset when the drawdown hit my stop and the 200-day moving average gave way in August of 2011.

    Gary
    Jan 24 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETFs Let You Invest With Your Head, Rather Than Your Heart [View article]
    DM,

    Yes, MUA is a CEF. And yes, of course I venture into closed-end territory. As I wrote in the article above:

    "Similarly, there are a number of yield-oriented income investments in the muni and corporate credit space that I have added to a variety of portfolios here in 2014, including Blackrock Muni Assets (MUA) and Guggenheim BulletShares 2020 High Yield (BSJK). Bear in mind, the "rates can only go up" argument has been largely one-sided."
    Jan 24 04:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ETFs Let You Invest With Your Head, Rather Than Your Heart [View article]
    Lovvvvvvvvvvvvvvvve laddering the Bulletshares. Everything worked well for my clients on BSJD... and I fully anticipate the same on 2014 maturity dates.
    Jan 24 04:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETFs Let You Invest With Your Head, Rather Than Your Heart [View article]
    Dear User,


    Beta is one measure of risk that investors should consider. In most articles, including this one, I also discuss the risks associated with an asset price falling below a key moving average like the 200-day moving average. Similarly, in most articles, like this one, I talk about the benefits of reducing risk with stop-limit orders when an asset's drawdown exceeds a pre-determined percentage drop.

    It follows that it does not appear you have accurately addressed the intention(s) of the editorial. For example, you chose to quote a line from the piece where I mentioned that EWM's performance achieved 3x the gains of the S&P 500 with less beta risk in 2010. For unknown reasons, you then proceeded to talk about the Sharp Ratio and drawdowns of the two assets from 2011-2013. The apples-to-oranges comments do not apply.

    What is relevant? In the above-mentioned piece, I talk about the many reasons for purchasing EWM in August of 2009 and the primary reason for selling EWM in August of 2011. During the calendar year 2010, or if you prefer, in the two-year period 8/2009-8/2011, the drawdowns and the beta for EWM were less than those for the S&P 500. Risk as a function of long-term trendline breaches (200-day) were also less for EWM than the S&P 500. Those are three examples of how EWM was less risky than the S&P 500 in the period discussed.

    If you'd like to calculate the Sharp Ratio from 8/2009-8/2011 for both EWM and SPY, feel free to do so. However, you will have missed the broader intent of my commentary; that is, exchange-traded funds help money managers/Registered Investment Advisers withe the SEC like myself invest with their heads, not their hearts. As described in the piece, it was beneficial for me to own EWM when I did, and it was beneficial to sell the asset when the drawdown hit my stop and the 200-day moving average gave way in August of 2011.

    Gary
    Jan 24 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETFs Let You Invest With Your Head, Rather Than Your Heart [View article]
    D,

    Regular readers and listeners already know that one of my largest holdings for the last two years has been Powershares Pharmaceuticals (PJP). As for solar, the vast majority of my clients are more concerned with asset protection; they need to keep what they have already accumulated. High beta assets with impressive relative strength scores may work out for some, but they are rarely appropriate for conservative retirees and the soon-to-be financially free.

    G
    Jan 23 04:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 High-Yielding ETFs That Hit 52-Week Highs [View article]
    Cal B,

    Yes, HYLD deserves the high praise that it receives. The only thing that you should be aware of here is that... the last two times HYLD sat for a long period above 80 RSI... the fund price turned flat for a period. Nevertheless, the yield has been the real reason for ownership and a little consolidation never hurt anyone.

    G
    Jan 23 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Across-The Board Negativity On Commodity-Related ETFs May Be Misplaced [View article]
    Retiring Investor Canada,

    My mistake on EWC... I was probably looking at another resources-rich country fund at the time. There are moments when my brain is thinking about one ETF, while my fingers are typing something else. Thanks for pointing that out.

    Gary
    Jan 22 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Against The Herd: Lower Rates Rather Than Higher Rates In 2014 [View article]
    "The author is correct if he anticipates a cresting of rates until it causes enough economic slowdown that people flee towards relative safety of US Treasuries again."

    That is what I anticipate in 2014... yes.

    I am only talking about where rates will be in 2014, not 2024, nor am I addressing (in this article), the longer-term damage that the Fed may be inflicting on the viability of U.S. debt or the dollar. Much like the PIGS of the Eurozone, the U.S. will certainly have a period of reckoning. However, 2014 will not be the time when our 10-year rates resemble rates of the P.I.G.S.

    This article addressed the high probability that the Fed will not willingly let the economy or market-based securities work through any issues or struggles that occur; rather, there is a high likelihood that they will turn right back to more "cow bell" stimulus at least once in 2014. And there are reasons galore for believing so, including, but not limited to, the year-over-year 50% decline in mortgage applications. Expect Helicopter Janet to wind up piloting to the rescue when enough pressure mounts.

    For those who believe that the jig is already up, they should recall that Japan has been playing the QE game for 14 years. The effects of questionable and controversial policies may not be fully understood for many more years to come.
    Jan 17 12:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 New Year's Resolutions An ETF Investor Can Keep [View article]
    bbro,

    Indeed, in December 2007, I expressed an exceptionally high probability of the recession through key data as well as the possibility of a bearish fallout domestically... thanks for pulling that up! I am on record with this in 1/2008 in Investor's Business Daily as well. Still, I try to keep the "tooting of the horn" to a moderate level. Thanks again for your recognition.

    To be clear, however, in late 2007/early 2008, I only anticipated an average bear (25%-30% drawdown) as the likely consequence of a real estate recession. I definitely did not have any knowledge or expectation that the real-estate driven recession would seep into every aspect of global credit and the entire financial system, leading to a near-collapse as well as 57% losses on the S&P 500.

    I must tell you, though, I never recommend that people ride any storm out... on the contrary! I manage money with stop-limit orders, trendlines and hedges. I talk about it endlessly in at least one-third of all articles, probably to the point at which some readers think, "Okay, enough already!"

    In other words, no matter what I talk about buying for the general consumption of the public, and that's mostly what people are reading for (i.e., what to buy now), it is never without the implicit and frequently explicit guidance to have a plan to minimize losses. My entire approach is based on the simple concept of avoiding the bulk of the "big loss."
    http://bit.ly/11RtnHW

    Keep in mind, I was able to move away from the company that I worked for and start my own asset management firm many years back... thanks to my exposure on national talk radio... thanks to my discussion of having an exit plan for the inevitable dot-com blow-up. Same plan, same approach.

    All that said, I WOULD do things differently than merely leave certain positions and rotate into other assets that could be viable. Whereas in 2000-2002, you could easily move from large cap tech to large value to small value to bonds, in 2008-2009, investment grade corporate bonds lost -20%. In essence, I've since elevated the status of cash, whereas in the past, I'd often look for an opportunity to make money. Cash would play a bigger role on the next "go-around."

    Gary
    Jan 7 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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