Gary Gordon Positions For 2012: Shunning Developed World Treasuries In Favor Of Emerging And Corporate Debt, MLPs [View article]
No, I am not calling for a CA default. In fact, In fact, I fully expect that, when the time comes, the U.S. will bail out CA. So the investments people are making should be fine... in the end.
That said, asusming a bailout is inevitable is as silly as buying Italian bonds. I am not doing it... are you?
It won't be a quick path to the inevitable bailout that Cali will require. The citizens of the other 49 states will not give an unconditional green light to Congress to dump money into a can't-stop-spending state.
The fight will drag on... much like it did with Greece, much like it is with the other PIIGS. The uncertainty isn't worth the exceptionally high probability that CA will get its money when push comes to shove. Ergo, buy diversified national munis and clip the coupon for the federal tax break... forgo the state tax break.
7-ETF Portfolio For The Skeptical, Bearish Crowd [View article]
The "average" assumes equal weighting. But remember, I am not recommending an ideal portfolio when there are so many different types of investors. Moreover, I am an active manager who does not believe in buy-n-hold.
That said, the purpose here is to show that conservative investors can reduce portfolio risk and still reap rewards. Most combinations of utilities, pipeline partnerships, REITs, high yield bonds, dividend stocks and investment grade bonds are going to work for you.
AMJ is an exchange-traded "note," so it goes on a 1099 and avoids the K-1s as well: http://bit.ly/reLbXJ
AMJ does introduce the "credit issue," but if you're really afraid that JP Morgan Chase won't honor its AMJ commitment, you shouldn't be invested in market-based securities at all. For that matter, you should avoid money market funds.
ETFs For A Market With No Definitive Trend In Place [Podcast] [View article]
*Hysteria,
SA chose the title. If one listens to the podcast, one would hear my thoughts on the best way to deal with the current "trading range" market.
It is only "trendless" in the sense that the bull market is on hiatus and a new bear market has not been established. Everyone should understand that many institutions and hedge funds are using S&P 500 1096-1233 for trading purposes... and that's precisely the difference between a 10% correction and a new bear (-20%).
Regarding high yield corporates in HYG, I completely agree.
2 Approaches for Investing in Markets Experiencing Record Volatility [Podcast] [View article]
I can't tell you what to do... but there's an exceptionally high probability that others may do exactly that. (Keep in mind, the leveraged/inverse vehicles are trading tools with daily compounding... not buy-n-hold tools with annual compounding.)
Fear / Risk ETFs Simultaneously Hit 52-Week Highs [View article]
Dear Outcast,
Not only did I pay attention to the "flash crash," I successfully sidestepped troubles by employing stop-limit orders on very liquid positions. If an investor understands the difference between a stop-market order and a stop-limit order, and if he/she only uses highly liquid ETFs, the problems are few and far between. While not the only method of risk reduction, it is worthy of use by those who implement them correctly.
In fact, as the president of a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC, we provided hundreds of clients with remarkable peace of mind during the "flash crash." Not only did we raise cash levels from stop-limit orders that occurred well before the Flash Crash (i.e., the event happened after the market was already pulling back significantly), but we purchased shares of favorite ETFs at much lower prices with that cash.
Lastly, ETF buys/sells that occurred within a particular window during that day were reversed... as if they didn't occur. Those who bought or sold ETFs in that time window were not permitted to benefit or get burned in that window... the trades of ETFs were effectively wiped out.
In complete contrast, market order trades on individual stocks of name brand companies like Procter & Gamble went through. Those who suffered the humiliating losses you speak of had market orders on individual companies, not ETFs. The ETF orders were reversed.
The Real Implications of 'Risk On' ETF Investing [View article]
When the price of a major benchmark falls below a long-term moving average, the probability of a bear market or substantial correction increases. The event itself does not guarantee a bear, but the probability certainly goes up.
Similarly, the longer we deviate from a mean... in this instance, the longer we go without a 10% correction... the more likely we will see one in the near-term. This does not imply, nor am I guaranteeing, that a correction of 10% will occur in 2011. Not even in 2012.
Nevertheless, we are dealing with a greater probability than a lesser probability. It follows that I advocate an equal weight between cyclical and non-cyclical, rather than a 100%, "risk-on," cyclical exposure.
7-ETF Portfolio With Low Correlating Assets Beats the S&P 500 [View article]
I wrote the article to inspire readers to check the asset correlations in their portfolios. By doing so, one can reduce the risk in their accounts and achieve extremely desirable results.
In spite of one vitriolic commenter's erroneous assertion, the article is not titled, "7-ETF Portfolio Crushes The S&P." The SA Editorial Team and I went with an appropriate title, "7-ETF Portfolio With Low Correlating Assets Beats the S&P 500."
Indeed, I did write a feature in November of 2010 entitled, "How My 7 ETFs Trounced The S&P 500." In it, I explained my process for developing the investable ideas that significantly outperformed the market with less risk. Long-time readers already know that I put my "picks" in plain sight for everyone to see on December 31, 2009.
Here, again, is the "proof" as it appeared at Seeking Alpha. (It also appeared at the start of 2010 at other popular portals such as theStreet.com, International Business Times, ETF Expert and more.) seekingalpha.com/artic...
As a financial commentator, CFP and president of a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC, I endeavor to offer insight into how I successfully manage money. I believe asset correlations matter. I used them to develop the portfolio that beat the S&P 500 with less risk in 2010. And I am using them now in 2011.
Long-time SA readers also know that I also manage risk with stop-loss limit orders as well as through hedging techniques. Fortunately, there are readers who look to improve upon their respective approaches as well as readers with the capacity to criticize intelligently. My gratitude goes out to Dibber, Infinium, USC-Col 2006 and Jonathan Liss for "staying classy."
Bernanke's 'Curveball' Gives Yet Another Boost to Commodity ETFs [View article]
Short-term in nature because ZSL is a daily compounding trading tool, which differs markedly from an annualized vehicle. You need to look no further than UltraShort Real Estate losing significantly more than DJ Real Estate (long) in 2008. (Even when you are right... the tool you use may be wrong.)
Bernanke's 'Curveball' Gives Yet Another Boost to Commodity ETFs [View article]
Investment success has nothing to do with originality. Still, "the author" brought up two original notions in the piece.
For example, I was the first person to address a "curveball" contradiction in Fed monetary policy; that is, the Fed is already behind the 2% inflation ball when inflation is at 2.7% and projected at 2.1%-2.8% going forward.
Second, even though commodities will still be desirable, I offered a potential short-term trade in ZSL. That's a "buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news" opportunity based on the vertical movement of SLV.
While I can't always offer an "original" take, one hundred thousand Seeking Alpha, ETFexpert and theStreet.com readers seem to appreciate my commentary. Roughly $100,000,000 in client assets appreciate my individualized advice as well. (Apparently, "larocag" is not one of them.)
Gary Gordon Positions For 2012: Shunning Developed World Treasuries In Favor Of Emerging And Corporate Debt, MLPs [View article]
That said, asusming a bailout is inevitable is as silly as buying Italian bonds. I am not doing it... are you?
It won't be a quick path to the inevitable bailout that Cali will require. The citizens of the other 49 states will not give an unconditional green light to Congress to dump money into a can't-stop-spending state.
The fight will drag on... much like it did with Greece, much like it is with the other PIIGS. The uncertainty isn't worth the exceptionally high probability that CA will get its money when push comes to shove. Ergo, buy diversified national munis and clip the coupon for the federal tax break... forgo the state tax break.
7-ETF Portfolio For The Skeptical, Bearish Crowd [View article]
That said, the purpose here is to show that conservative investors can reduce portfolio risk and still reap rewards. Most combinations of utilities, pipeline partnerships, REITs, high yield bonds, dividend stocks and investment grade bonds are going to work for you.
Allocating To MLPs Using Exchange-Traded Products [View article]
That said, if you like the space, and prefer a diversified vehicle with less tax headaches, AMJ and AMLP do the trick.
AMLP does avoid the K-1s:
http://bit.ly/q6TUPB/
AMJ is an exchange-traded "note," so it goes on a 1099 and avoids the K-1s as well:
http://bit.ly/reLbXJ
AMJ does introduce the "credit issue," but if you're really afraid that JP Morgan Chase won't honor its AMJ commitment, you shouldn't be invested in market-based securities at all. For that matter, you should avoid money market funds.
ETFs For A Market With No Definitive Trend In Place [Podcast] [View article]
SA chose the title. If one listens to the podcast, one would hear my thoughts on the best way to deal with the current "trading range" market.
It is only "trendless" in the sense that the bull market is on hiatus and a new bear market has not been established. Everyone should understand that many institutions and hedge funds are using S&P 500 1096-1233 for trading purposes... and that's precisely the difference between a 10% correction and a new bear (-20%).
Regarding high yield corporates in HYG, I completely agree.
Gary
The Keys To Successful Money Management With ETFs [View article]
$250,000 in average "dollar" volume, not share volume. ALD has an average dollar volume of $9,000,000.
Best,
G
2 Approaches for Investing in Markets Experiencing Record Volatility [Podcast] [View article]
Without Bailing Out European Banks, These ETFs May Be Toxic [View article]
The list in this article only included stock ETFs. And, not all of the stock ETFs mentioned above have eurozone exposure. "Most" do.
G
Indiscriminate Selling Stimulates Huge Demand for Yield-Oriented ETFs [View article]
Fear / Risk ETFs Simultaneously Hit 52-Week Highs [View article]
Not only did I pay attention to the "flash crash," I successfully sidestepped troubles by employing stop-limit orders on very liquid positions. If an investor understands the difference between a stop-market order and a stop-limit order, and if he/she only uses highly liquid ETFs, the problems are few and far between. While not the only method of risk reduction, it is worthy of use by those who implement them correctly.
In fact, as the president of a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC, we provided hundreds of clients with remarkable peace of mind during the "flash crash." Not only did we raise cash levels from stop-limit orders that occurred well before the Flash Crash (i.e., the event happened after the market was already pulling back significantly), but we purchased shares of favorite ETFs at much lower prices with that cash.
Lastly, ETF buys/sells that occurred within a particular window during that day were reversed... as if they didn't occur. Those who bought or sold ETFs in that time window were not permitted to benefit or get burned in that window... the trades of ETFs were effectively wiped out.
In complete contrast, market order trades on individual stocks of name brand companies like Procter & Gamble went through. Those who suffered the humiliating losses you speak of had market orders on individual companies, not ETFs. The ETF orders were reversed.
Debt Ceiling ETFs: A Different 'Gang of Six' [View article]
Not to get "picky," but these aren't picks. At the time of the article, these were the returns for the ETFs in the table.
Best,
Gary
The Real Implications of Risk On, Risk Off ETF Investing [Podcast] [View article]
The Real Implications of 'Risk On' ETF Investing [View article]
Similarly, the longer we deviate from a mean... in this instance, the longer we go without a 10% correction... the more likely we will see one in the near-term. This does not imply, nor am I guaranteeing, that a correction of 10% will occur in 2011. Not even in 2012.
Nevertheless, we are dealing with a greater probability than a lesser probability. It follows that I advocate an equal weight between cyclical and non-cyclical, rather than a 100%, "risk-on," cyclical exposure.
7-ETF Portfolio With Low Correlating Assets Beats the S&P 500 [View article]
In spite of one vitriolic commenter's erroneous assertion, the article is not titled, "7-ETF Portfolio Crushes The S&P." The SA Editorial Team and I went with an appropriate title, "7-ETF Portfolio With Low Correlating Assets Beats the S&P 500."
Indeed, I did write a feature in November of 2010 entitled, "How My 7 ETFs Trounced The S&P 500." In it, I explained my process for developing the investable ideas that significantly outperformed the market with less risk. Long-time readers already know that I put my "picks" in plain sight for everyone to see on December 31, 2009.
Here, again, is the "proof" as it appeared at Seeking Alpha. (It also appeared at the start of 2010 at other popular portals such as theStreet.com, International Business Times, ETF Expert and more.)
seekingalpha.com/artic...
As a financial commentator, CFP and president of a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC, I endeavor to offer insight into how I successfully manage money. I believe asset correlations matter. I used them to develop the portfolio that beat the S&P 500 with less risk in 2010. And I am using them now in 2011.
Long-time SA readers also know that I also manage risk with stop-loss limit orders as well as through hedging techniques. Fortunately, there are readers who look to improve upon their respective approaches as well as readers with the capacity to criticize intelligently. My gratitude goes out to Dibber, Infinium, USC-Col 2006 and Jonathan Liss for "staying classy."
Bernanke's 'Curveball' Gives Yet Another Boost to Commodity ETFs [View article]
Bernanke's 'Curveball' Gives Yet Another Boost to Commodity ETFs [View article]
For example, I was the first person to address a "curveball" contradiction in Fed monetary policy; that is, the Fed is already behind the 2% inflation ball when inflation is at 2.7% and projected at 2.1%-2.8% going forward.
Second, even though commodities will still be desirable, I offered a potential short-term trade in ZSL. That's a "buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news" opportunity based on the vertical movement of SLV.
While I can't always offer an "original" take, one hundred thousand Seeking Alpha, ETFexpert and theStreet.com readers seem to appreciate my commentary. Roughly $100,000,000 in client assets appreciate my individualized advice as well. (Apparently, "larocag" is not one of them.)