King Dollar? The Swiss Franc May Become the World's Currency [View article]
TM,
Keep in mind, even active investors should seek non-correlating assets in an ETF portfolio. That's why I prefer to get the benefit of the loonie via the country fund, iShares MSCI Canada (EWC). At the moment, I am less inclined to acquire shares of CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar (FXC).
King Dollar? The Swiss Franc May Become the World's Currency [View article]
Guardian3981,
The central theme of my commentary is that the U.S. dollar MAY be losing its safe haven status. I'm not talking about an extended period of stock market decline.
Putting away the semantics... the "turmoil/uncertainty" refers to civil unrest in Libya and the price spike in oil. How did safety-seekers choose to respond? They bought gold, the yen, and the Swiss franc, while others sold the U.S. dollar outright.
That's a different reaction from the one we witnessed during 2008's banking disaster. It's a different response from the one that we initially experienced with the sovereign debt "crisis" in Europe.
The dollar has already lost out to gold. Less clear is whether or not another fiat currency will take over the reins.
In a current environment, those very same correlations with a diversified commodity basket range from -.70 to -.90. The main point of the feature is to look for lower-correlating assets for your portfolio.
Why I Am Taking Profits on State and National Muni Bond ETFs [View article]
Taking profits means just that... taking profits. It does not mean that an investment is doomed for eternity. It doesn't imply that "holding on" wouldn't have worked out better. And it doesn't suggest that there won't be another buying opportunity down the road.
My success in money management is directly attributable to side-stepping large chunks of the downside in both the 2000-2002 and 2008-2009 bear markets. Rather than hold-n-hope, I control the outcome, securing a big gain, small gain or small loss on each investment decision. No big losses... simple as that.
I explained in 2009 why I didn't believe California munis were a good choice, even though I was (and am) reasonably certain that the Fed or Congress would bail out Cali. I rode the national muni wave for 18 months, then hit stop-losses... time to take profits.
Others can hold onto their ratings, their tax brackets, and their emotional attachments to specific investments. For me, it's more important to avoid the potential devastation of buy-n-hold, as far too few seemed to realize in Dot-Com 2000 or Subprime 2008.
Nevertheless, if you still can't break the hold-n-hope mold, feel free to see how my "Go-Ahead-And-Hold-It Portfolio" performed. My 7-ETF Mix for 2010 dramatically outperformed the S&P 500 with less risk. seekingalpha.com/artic...
It Finally Makes Sense to Short the Long Bond via TBT [View article]
Readers need to recognize that writers grant SA permission to pull their features from elsewhere. Often, a title may be changed, reflecting SA's editorial discretion. I bring this up because... sometimes... an author's intent to stimulate discussion gets lost in translation.
My intent had been to suggest that... TBT may "finally" work for an active trader. In more instances than not, it hasn't worked and bond yields have not risen. The article intended to highlight this reality, as well as the reality that some of the most respected names have been "early."
I never buy-n-hold... long-term readers already know this about me. The possibility of using TBT as a "trade" and not as a long-term investment is based on the likelihood that QE2 has been priced in by the bond market… that there’s just enough economic growth, just enough employment stability, just enough of a hint that inflation is coming… that long-term bond yields may climb through year end.
Global Stock ETF Winners That Nobody’s Talking About [View article]
In the article, I wrote, "Its 18% return over the last 12 months is better than any developed market regional ETF." It helps to read what an author has actually written, as I had been discussing year-over-year, 12-month returns... not YTD.
It also helps to understand the pros and cons of Yahoo Finance, as the YTD figure at Yahoo Finance only goes through 7/31. That's about 3 months old, where September and October represent the bulk of the equity rally in 2010.
Often when one is writing, he/she is still trying to accumulate facts and figures during market hours. So one's data can be off by a "skohsh." With that said, the 10/23/09-10/22/10 return at Yahoo Finance Historical Prices for GXF is 17.3%. As discussed, that is a better year-over-year return for any other developed market regional ETF.
Pros and Cons of TD Ameritrade's New Commission-Free ETFs [View article]
Perhaps the $8.95 trade is available to institutional, advisor-based clients... and perhaps it is for my clients only. I was not aware that the trade cost for retail investors was still $9.99. I've managed many millions of assets at TD for the last decade, so the discount that I receive on behalf of my clients is understandable.
China’s Asian Neighbors Have the Most Attractive Stock ETFs [View article]
Having lived and worked in SE Asia for a combined total of 5 years, including Thailand, Taiwan and Hong Kong, few presidents of Registered Investment Advisers have as much knowledge about the "globe" as I do. Most readers at Seeking Alpha, the Street.com, ETFexpert.com and Fool.com are interested in the "big picture" implications as I see them. Nevertheless, you're certainly entitled to miss the point of my commentary as well as "comment" on where South Korea may sit on a map.
Why Hasn't the Market Questioned the Rise in Financial Stocks? [View article]
Dear Readers,
Admittedly, I rarely have the time to comment or respond to readers here at SA. Yet I felt that I should address a number of misinterpretations by those who read bits and pieces of my editorial.
1. I am not advocating mark-to-market accounting, nor am I stating that the banks are insolvent. I am merely asking why... if the rules of accounting have not formerly changed... what is stopping Wall Street from shorting financial stocks on the same solvency/insolvency issues.
2. I am not shorting financial stocks. As the president of a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC, I took profits for moderately aggressive clients on KBW Regional Banks (KRE) on the 14th and 15th. I have stayed away from its big bank brother, KBE. The uncertainty of the financial sector relative to the greater certainty and sustainability in Tech (IYW) or Industrials (XLI) is what I discuss in numerous features.
3. I am neither a perma-bull or perma-bear, but I have been accused of both... all year long. (You've got to admit, it's funny when... no matter what you endeavor to express.... someone thinks you fall into a bull or bear camp.) Simply stated, I have been invested throughout the 2009-2010 market rally, which suggests a more bullish stance. Since I do not buy-n-hold for clients, however, there are times when I take profits and/or let stop-losses reduce risk.
Building a Better Brazil ETF Portfolio [View article]
Barclays/Blackrock, State Street, PowerShares and Vanguard are first-tier providers of exchange-traded funds with billions of assets under management. Claymore, Van Eck Global and WisdomTree are second-tier providers. These are proven corporations with proven exchange-traded vehicles that track well-established indexes.
Third- and fourth-tier companies like Emerging Global do not yet offer ETFs with sufficient liquidity, tradeability or suitable indexes. They often have excellent themes like infrastructure in emerging markets; yet, "marketing" excellence is not product excellence.
It is clear from your choice to purchase BRXX, you do not yet understand bid/ask spreads and the costs associated with exceptionally wide spreads. You also do not understand the criticality of liquidity in downtrends, particularly as liquidity relates to exceptionally low volume ETFs. You genuinely need to read about these topics to understand cost implications of your selection.
Finally, if you wonder why some SA writers may offer glowing write-ups of any Emerging Global vehicle, no matter how poor, visit the writer's web site to see the Emerging Global Shares advertisements. Many writers and their companies have substantial financial arrangements with the advertiser, and yet, at SA, those writers still neglect to disclose their financial arrangments.
Canadian ETFs: More Than Hockey to Cheer About [View article]
Tipalia,
>>If you look at EWC , it is composed of a lot of financial >>so your point Gary is not exactly what you would like us to believe
It would not matter if EWC tracked an index of 100% financials, investors have been trading EWC as an energy proxy for a long time. The near perfect correlation and similar performance are established data points... not my opinion. You can see the same exact pattern in the trading for Brazil EWZ as a materials proxy... again, regardless of underlying holdings.
You should not misinterpret my sentiment on Canada... it's entirely positive! REREAD the feature if you missed my position on investing in Canada.
Oil ETFs: Still Crazy After All These Years [View article]
RGB
That's all well and good... but from the very beginning, USO was sold to investors as a way to capture the upside of "oil" as the investor knows "oil." We can discuss backwardation and contango until we're all blue in the face, but exchange-traded investors had higher expectations.
And with good reason. They were sold on getting crude oil, even if the propsectuses detailed the intricate/complex issues associated with futures.
Emerging Global Launches Brazil Infrastructure ETF [View article]
Michael,
Even though your company, ETF Database, may not be regulated by the SEC or the rules that Registered Investment Advisers must follow... even if publishing guidelines allow you to skirt disclosure issues... you ought to disclose the financial relationships with your sponsors and advertisers. That's the right thing to do.
Why Russia ETFs Are Receiving So Much Love [View article]
Thanks for catching the "typo." The estimate is 5 million barrels, not 50 million.
GG
King Dollar? The Swiss Franc May Become the World's Currency [View article]
Keep in mind, even active investors should seek non-correlating assets in an ETF portfolio. That's why I prefer to get the benefit of the loonie via the country fund, iShares MSCI Canada (EWC). At the moment, I am less inclined to acquire shares of CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar (FXC).
See my article from a day earlier.
seekingalpha.com/artic...
GG
King Dollar? The Swiss Franc May Become the World's Currency [View article]
The central theme of my commentary is that the U.S. dollar MAY be losing its safe haven status. I'm not talking about an extended period of stock market decline.
Putting away the semantics... the "turmoil/uncertainty" refers to civil unrest in Libya and the price spike in oil. How did safety-seekers choose to respond? They bought gold, the yen, and the Swiss franc, while others sold the U.S. dollar outright.
That's a different reaction from the one we witnessed during 2008's banking disaster. It's a different response from the one that we initially experienced with the sovereign debt "crisis" in Europe.
The dollar has already lost out to gold. Less clear is whether or not another fiat currency will take over the reins.
Gary
CBOE Put/Call Ratio: The Indicator of Market Direction Nobody Is Talking About [View article]
Alpha-Seeking Investors Should Consider Single Commodity ETFs Too [View article]
>>Your comment that gold, nickel and coffee have negligible
>>correlation to the greenback is preposterous
The 1-year correlation coefficients between the Dollar Bullish Fund (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) with Nickel (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), Gold (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) and Coffee (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) are -.10, -.20 and -.40 respectively. Those are the facts... and I am sorry that you think that facts are preposterous.
In a current environment, those very same correlations with a diversified commodity basket range from -.70 to -.90. The main point of the feature is to look for lower-correlating assets for your portfolio.
Why I Am Taking Profits on State and National Muni Bond ETFs [View article]
My success in money management is directly attributable to side-stepping large chunks of the downside in both the 2000-2002 and 2008-2009 bear markets. Rather than hold-n-hope, I control the outcome, securing a big gain, small gain or small loss on each investment decision. No big losses... simple as that.
I explained in 2009 why I didn't believe California munis were a good choice, even though I was (and am) reasonably certain that the Fed or Congress would bail out Cali. I rode the national muni wave for 18 months, then hit stop-losses... time to take profits.
Others can hold onto their ratings, their tax brackets, and their emotional attachments to specific investments. For me, it's more important to avoid the potential devastation of buy-n-hold, as far too few seemed to realize in Dot-Com 2000 or Subprime 2008.
Nevertheless, if you still can't break the hold-n-hope mold, feel free to see how my "Go-Ahead-And-Hold-It Portfolio" performed. My 7-ETF Mix for 2010 dramatically outperformed the S&P 500 with less risk.
seekingalpha.com/artic...
It Finally Makes Sense to Short the Long Bond via TBT [View article]
My intent had been to suggest that... TBT may "finally" work for an active trader. In more instances than not, it hasn't worked and bond yields have not risen. The article intended to highlight this reality, as well as the reality that some of the most respected names have been "early."
I never buy-n-hold... long-term readers already know this about me. The possibility of using TBT as a "trade" and not as a long-term investment is based on the likelihood that QE2 has been priced in by the bond market… that there’s just enough economic growth, just enough employment stability, just enough of a hint that inflation is coming… that long-term bond yields may climb through year end.
Global Stock ETF Winners That Nobody’s Talking About [View article]
It also helps to understand the pros and cons of Yahoo Finance, as the YTD figure at Yahoo Finance only goes through 7/31. That's about 3 months old, where September and October represent the bulk of the equity rally in 2010.
Often when one is writing, he/she is still trying to accumulate facts and figures during market hours. So one's data can be off by a "skohsh." With that said, the 10/23/09-10/22/10 return at Yahoo Finance Historical Prices for GXF is 17.3%. As discussed, that is a better year-over-year return for any other developed market regional ETF.
Pros and Cons of TD Ameritrade's New Commission-Free ETFs [View article]
China’s Asian Neighbors Have the Most Attractive Stock ETFs [View article]
Why Hasn't the Market Questioned the Rise in Financial Stocks? [View article]
Admittedly, I rarely have the time to comment or respond to readers here at SA. Yet I felt that I should address a number of misinterpretations by those who read bits and pieces of my editorial.
1. I am not advocating mark-to-market accounting, nor am I stating that the banks are insolvent. I am merely asking why... if the rules of accounting have not formerly changed... what is stopping Wall Street from shorting financial stocks on the same solvency/insolvency issues.
2. I am not shorting financial stocks. As the president of a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC, I took profits for moderately aggressive clients on KBW Regional Banks (KRE) on the 14th and 15th. I have stayed away from its big bank brother, KBE. The uncertainty of the financial sector relative to the greater certainty and sustainability in Tech (IYW) or Industrials (XLI) is what I discuss in numerous features.
3. I am neither a perma-bull or perma-bear, but I have been accused of both... all year long. (You've got to admit, it's funny when... no matter what you endeavor to express.... someone thinks you fall into a bull or bear camp.) Simply stated, I have been invested throughout the 2009-2010 market rally, which suggests a more bullish stance. Since I do not buy-n-hold for clients, however, there are times when I take profits and/or let stop-losses reduce risk.
Cheers,
Gary
Building a Better Brazil ETF Portfolio [View article]
Third- and fourth-tier companies like Emerging Global do not yet offer ETFs with sufficient liquidity, tradeability or suitable indexes. They often have excellent themes like infrastructure in emerging markets; yet, "marketing" excellence is not product excellence.
It is clear from your choice to purchase BRXX, you do not yet understand bid/ask spreads and the costs associated with exceptionally wide spreads. You also do not understand the criticality of liquidity in downtrends, particularly as liquidity relates to exceptionally low volume ETFs. You genuinely need to read about these topics to understand cost implications of your selection.
Finally, if you wonder why some SA writers may offer glowing write-ups of any Emerging Global vehicle, no matter how poor, visit the writer's web site to see the Emerging Global Shares advertisements. Many writers and their companies have substantial financial arrangements with the advertiser, and yet, at SA, those writers still neglect to disclose their financial arrangments.
Canadian ETFs: More Than Hockey to Cheer About [View article]
>>If you look at EWC , it is composed of a lot of financial
>>so your point Gary is not exactly what you would like us to believe
It would not matter if EWC tracked an index of 100% financials, investors have been trading EWC as an energy proxy for a long time. The near perfect correlation and similar performance are established data points... not my opinion. You can see the same exact pattern in the trading for Brazil EWZ as a materials proxy... again, regardless of underlying holdings.
You should not misinterpret my sentiment on Canada... it's entirely positive! REREAD the feature if you missed my position on investing in Canada.
Cheers
Gary
Oil ETFs: Still Crazy After All These Years [View article]
That's all well and good... but from the very beginning, USO was sold to investors as a way to capture the upside of "oil" as the investor knows "oil." We can discuss backwardation and contango until we're all blue in the face, but exchange-traded investors had higher expectations.
And with good reason. They were sold on getting crude oil, even if the propsectuses detailed the intricate/complex issues associated with futures.
G
Emerging Global Launches Brazil Infrastructure ETF [View article]
Even though your company, ETF Database, may not be regulated by the SEC or the rules that Registered Investment Advisers must follow... even if publishing guidelines allow you to skirt disclosure issues... you ought to disclose the financial relationships with your sponsors and advertisers. That's the right thing to do.
Gary