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The Bubble's Name Must Be Godot: We Keep Waiting And Waiting
- Every time the market sets new highs, bubble talk....well, bubbles to the surface.
- By traditional valuation methods, many stocks at new highs are not at bubble levels.
- June's bubble scare has proven costly to investors who avoided leading Dow Industrial shares.
The Curious Mathematics Of Moving Averages
- Moving averages are widely used in economics and finance.
- A great variety of lengths are used: 20-day, 50-day, 200-day, etc.
- These contain different amounts of information, but not for the reason you think!
Should Rising Interest Rates Doom Utilities As An Investment?
- Most investors buy utilities in large part for the generous dividend yield.
- It would appear rising interest rates would be a threat to utility shares.
- What does the recent historical record show?
Might You Want Fries With That? McDonald's Is A Market Bellwether
- McDonald's has been a market leader over the past decade.
- The shares have attracted both dividend and low-beta style investors.
- What might its recent price action be telling us?
Earliest Phase Of A Bear Market: When Good News Becomes Bad
- For years, bad news has been good: it meant the FED would keep rates low.
- For years, GOOD news has been good: the recovery meant higher earnings.
- This duel dynamic appears to have reversed: could this be more than a correction?
FedEx Surges To New Highs: Transports Screaming The Economy Is Strong
- Even in the face of higher oil prices, transportation stocks are rising.
- FedEx is a classic example: setting all time highs over the last few weeks.
- If the economy is doing so poorly, just what are all these companies carrying? Returned goods?
Risk Adjusted Sector ETF Performance Spring 2014: Economic Consequences
- ETF sector performance gives clues about the economy's future.
- Simply comparing ETF returns is not enough: You must compare ETF performance after adjustment for risk.
- Risk adjusted ETF data suggest the economy has brushed off the weather related slowdown from the 1st quarter.
- The Consumer Discretionary sector appears to be on the bargain table.
Drones In The Air, Not Boots On The Ground: Buy Elbit Systems
- The Cold War has lessons to teach us about the war on terrorism.
- Unfairly, America bore most of the financial burden in the Cold War.
- Unfortunately, we probably will bear most of the burden in the war against terrorism as well.
- Given reluctance to put "boots on the ground," drones will be a major tactical choice.
- Elbit Systems will be a primary beneficiary of this choice.
Utilities Still Speaking Loud And Clear: The Economy Will Do Fine
- Some claim the strength in US Treasury Bonds shows the economy is performing poorly.
- If so, why are Utilities, which are economically sensitive dividend payers, even stronger?.
- Answer: The Market was never fooled by short term weather related weakness.
Rising Market Tide Continues To Lift All Boats
- The advance/decline line for all major market averages are at record levels.
- The number of new highs could use some improvement on the Nasdaq but is fine elsewhere.
- Traditionally, this means the next leg of the bull market is full speed ahead.
4 Dow Stocks That Puncture The 'Bubble' Case
- Analysts talk about "bubbles" without defining what the term means. This makes their analysis worthless.
- I provide a plausible, workable definition of a Bubble.
- Using this definition, I use four Dow stocks to counter the idea the Dow Industrials are in a bubble.
Enjoy The Ongoing Secular Bull Market: Part I
- Distinguish between secular and cyclical bull markets.
- This cyclical bull market is the first phase of a secular bull market that will reach the 2020s.
- Johnson and Johnson, and WalMart provide proof the bull market is secular.
The Wonderful World Of Disney
- Disney shares, propelled by surging earnings, have been outstanding performers.
- Valuation no longer places these shares on the bargain counter.
- However, I recommend investors hold the shares and monitor a few possible developments.
Follow Up On Intel: Is The 'Bad News Still Good'?
- What happens when YOUR company releases bad news?
- Do the shares briefly sell off, then recover?
- If so the bear case may be washed out, and you might be looking at a bargain.
Harry Potter And The Financial Room Of Requirement
- Ever wonder where incorrect market forecasts end up?
- There is a special room at Hogwarts castle for such things.
- Expect a few more bearish forecasts to be dispatched there soon.
Market Consensus: Bullish At Last
- Stocks, bonds and commodities should speak with one voice.
- When they do, long term investors should listen.
- Right now, all three markets say: strong economy and full speed ahead.
Dow Jones Industrials Are Lagging: Why?
- The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq indices have rallied to new 2014 highs.
- The Dow Jones Industrials are just a whisker away.
- Understand the reasons for this underperformance.
The Message Of Gold Versus Inflation Indexed Bonds: A Conflict
- Higher gold prices suggest markets are getting a whiff of inflation.
- Inflation indexed bonds are sending a different message.
- What might this conundrum mean for investors?
The Good News Keeps On Coming
- Previously Underperforming Sectors have regained their mojo.
- Sector performance comparisons must adjust for risk.
- The markets are saying full speed ahead for the economy.
- Ukrainian 1-Day Bear Market: Hope You Enjoyed It
- Stages Of A Bull Market Part VI: When Leaders Stop Leading
- The REAL Similarities Between 1929 And 2014: Not A Spurious Chart Correlation
- Stages Of A Bull Market Part V: Follow The Leaders
- Equal Vs. Cap Weighted ETFs: Dividend And Risk Consequences
- What Bond ETFs Are Saying About The Economy In 2014
- At The Money Or Out Of The Money: 2 Buy/Write ETFs Compared
Psst! The Unemployment Rate Really Is 5.9%
Tue, Feb. 4 • 26 Comments
- Listen To The Utilities. Sort Of!
- Just In Time For A Correction: Inverse Index ETFs Are Good Trackers
- Warning Flag From Tech Stocks: Breadth Is Weakening
- Good News Not Good Enough: An Early Glance At Post Earnings Performance
- Leveraged Bond ETFs: No Evidence Of Volatility Drag