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Gary Jakacky

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  • FedEx Surges To New Highs: Transports Screaming The Economy Is Strong
    Wed, Jun. 18 IYT, FDX 25 Comments

    Summary

    • Even in the face of higher oil prices, transportation stocks are rising.
    • FedEx is a classic example: setting all time highs over the last few weeks.
    • If the economy is doing so poorly, just what are all these companies carrying? Returned goods?
  • Risk Adjusted Sector ETF Performance Spring 2014: Economic Consequences
    Tue, Jun. 17 QQQ, SPY, XLK 5 Comments

    Summary

    • ETF sector performance gives clues about the economy's future.
    • Simply comparing ETF returns is not enough: You must compare ETF performance after adjustment for risk.
    • Risk adjusted ETF data suggest the economy has brushed off the weather related slowdown from the 1st quarter.
    • The Consumer Discretionary sector appears to be on the bargain table.
  • Drones In The Air, Not Boots On The Ground: Buy Elbit Systems
    Fri, Jun. 13 ESLT 10 Comments

    Summary

    • The Cold War has lessons to teach us about the war on terrorism.
    • Unfairly, America bore most of the financial burden in the Cold War.
    • Unfortunately, we probably will bear most of the burden in the war against terrorism as well.
    • Given reluctance to put "boots on the ground," drones will be a major tactical choice.
    • Elbit Systems will be a primary beneficiary of this choice.
  • Utilities Still Speaking Loud And Clear: The Economy Will Do Fine
    Tue, Jun. 10 TLT, XLU, XLY 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Some claim the strength in US Treasury Bonds shows the economy is performing poorly.
    • If so, why are Utilities, which are economically sensitive dividend payers, even stronger?.
    • Answer: The Market was never fooled by short term weather related weakness.
  • Rising Market Tide Continues To Lift All Boats
    Fri, Jun. 6 IYT, QQQ, SPY 14 Comments

    Summary

    • The advance/decline line for all major market averages are at record levels.
    • The number of new highs could use some improvement on the Nasdaq but is fine elsewhere.
    • Traditionally, this means the next leg of the bull market is full speed ahead.
  • 4 Dow Stocks That Puncture The 'Bubble' Case
    Thu, Jun. 5 INTC, JNJ, MMM 17 Comments

    Summary

    • Analysts talk about "bubbles" without defining what the term means. This makes their analysis worthless.
    • I provide a plausible, workable definition of a Bubble.
    • Using this definition, I use four Dow stocks to counter the idea the Dow Industrials are in a bubble.
  • Enjoy The Ongoing Secular Bull Market: Part I
    Tue, Jun. 3 WMT, JNJ, DIA 56 Comments

    Summary

    • Distinguish between secular and cyclical bull markets.
    • This cyclical bull market is the first phase of a secular bull market that will reach the 2020s.
    • Johnson and Johnson, and WalMart provide proof the bull market is secular.
  • The Wonderful World Of Disney
    Thu, Apr. 10 DIS 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Disney shares, propelled by surging earnings, have been outstanding performers.
    • Valuation no longer places these shares on the bargain counter.
    • However, I recommend investors hold the shares and monitor a few possible developments.
  • Follow Up On Intel: Is The 'Bad News Still Good'?
    Tue, Apr. 8 INTC 4 Comments

    Summary

    • What happens when YOUR company releases bad news?
    • Do the shares briefly sell off, then recover?
    • If so the bear case may be washed out, and you might be looking at a bargain.
  • Harry Potter And The Financial Room Of Requirement
    Fri, Apr. 4 SPY, DIA, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Ever wonder where incorrect market forecasts end up?
    • There is a special room at Hogwarts castle for such things.
    • Expect a few more bearish forecasts to be dispatched there soon.
  • Market Consensus: Bullish At Last
    Wed, Apr. 2 GLD, TIP, TLT 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Stocks, bonds and commodities should speak with one voice.
    • When they do, long term investors should listen.
    • Right now, all three markets say: strong economy and full speed ahead.
  • Dow Jones Industrials Are Lagging: Why?
    Tue, Mar. 11 XLE, DIA 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq indices have rallied to new 2014 highs.
    • The Dow Jones Industrials are just a whisker away.
    • Understand the reasons for this underperformance.
  • The Message Of Gold Versus Inflation Indexed Bonds: A Conflict
    Tue, Mar. 11 TIP, TLT, GLD 46 Comments

    Summary

    • Higher gold prices suggest markets are getting a whiff of inflation.
    • Inflation indexed bonds are sending a different message.
    • What might this conundrum mean for investors?
  • The Good News Keeps On Coming
    Mon, Mar. 10 TLT, XLE, XLF 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Previously Underperforming Sectors have regained their mojo.
    • Sector performance comparisons must adjust for risk.
    • The markets are saying full speed ahead for the economy.
  • Ukrainian 1-Day Bear Market: Hope You Enjoyed It
    Wed, Mar. 5 SPY, QQQ, DIA 29 Comments
  • Stages Of A Bull Market Part VI: When Leaders Stop Leading
    Wed, Feb. 19 XLV, SPY, IYT 5 Comments
  • The REAL Similarities Between 1929 And 2014: Not A Spurious Chart Correlation
    Wed, Feb. 12 DIA, SPY, QQQ 31 Comments
  • Stages Of A Bull Market Part V: Follow The Leaders
    Tue, Feb. 11 QQQ, XLY, SPY 4 Comments
  • Equal Vs. Cap Weighted ETFs: Dividend And Risk Consequences
    Mon, Feb. 10 SPY, SH, SSO 30 Comments
  • What Bond ETFs Are Saying About The Economy In 2014
    Fri, Feb. 7 TBT, TMV, TBF 7 Comments
  • At The Money Or Out Of The Money: 2 Buy/Write ETFs Compared
    Fri, Feb. 7 PBP, HVPW, HSPX 4 Comments
  • Psst! The Unemployment Rate Really Is 5.9%
    Tue, Feb. 4 26 Comments
  • Listen To The Utilities. Sort Of!
    Sat, Feb. 1 TLT, XLU, IDU 11 Comments
  • Just In Time For A Correction: Inverse Index ETFs Are Good Trackers
    Mon, Jan. 27 DIA, DOG, DXD 13 Comments
  • Warning Flag From Tech Stocks: Breadth Is Weakening
    Mon, Jan. 27 SPY, XLK, QQQ 6 Comments
  • Good News Not Good Enough: An Early Glance At Post Earnings Performance
    Wed, Jan. 22 DIA, BAC, JNJ 4 Comments
  • Leveraged Bond ETFs: No Evidence Of Volatility Drag
    Wed, Jan. 22 UBT, TLT 3 Comments
  • The Death Of Net Neutrality Is Bullish For Stocks And America
    Wed, Jan. 22 NFLX, SPY, VZ 33 Comments
  • Intel: When Bad News Might Be Good
    Fri, Jan. 17 INTC 11 Comments
  • Underperforming Sectors: Economic Message For 2014
    Editors' Pick • Thu, Jan. 16 TLT, XLB, XLE 7 Comments
  • Cash Dividends, Financial Theory And Investing For Retirement
    Wed, Jan. 15 AMGN, GE, TGT 23 Comments
  • Stages Of A Bull Market Part IV: When Good News Becomes Bad
    Mon, Jan. 13 ISRG, CELG 1 Comment