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Gary Jakacky

 
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  • The Curious Mathematics Of Moving Averages [View article]
    Kishavan: something cannot be worse than useless. If indicator "x" makes you lose money, than indicator "-x" (by that i mean follow the opposite of what it recommends....would be an improvement. If the information so scrambles your thoughts that it increases risk and volatility, you are correct: either way you are worse off.

    WOW...i learned more about moving averages having made an arithmetic error than if it was done correctly. I'll have to make mistakes more often.
    Aug 20 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day Ahead - Our Own Worst Enemy? [View article]
    Are there any other clues that SPY (And other indices) might poke thru? Advance/decline; on balance volume, whatever? Lets hope you are correct and the bulls dispatch another summer swoon to history.
    Aug 20 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Curious Mathematics Of Moving Averages [View article]
    I know there have also been proposals to completely rebase the major stock indexes, especially the Dow and Nikkei, which are in the thousands. The numbers frighten people, and while we all know it has to do with stock splits and spinoffs, whatever; it still would be a good idea to just "reset" the base figure at 100 or whatever at the start of every decade. Standard and Poors ORIGINALLY said they were going to do this when they started their index back in the 1950s. That idea has been abandoned, apparently.

    In the meantime I will continue to work, make occasional stupid errors, and endure the deserved slings and arrows of outrageous fortune!
    Aug 20 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Curious Mathematics Of Moving Averages [View article]
    Seriously. ABD meaning not a PHD, all but dissertation. My worst math error was on an exam way back in high school, an HONORS course in physics. I spent 25 minutes of a 50 minute exam solving a formula (it was bizarre with logarithms, radicals, exponents and such) for a variable.....

    turns out THAT variable was given! I needed to solve for a different one.

    Guess that explains why I am not a physicist.
    Aug 20 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Curious Mathematics Of Moving Averages [View article]
    Kishavan thanks for the algebraic formulation. Had I sat down and minded my x's and y's as closely as a I do my p's and q's, i would not have made this error. I was concentrating on whether the MA rose or fell, rather than it's absolute level.

    Some of my stocks have followed a straight linear path, Aucoaster.....unfortun... it was down! :)
    Aug 19 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Curious Mathematics Of Moving Averages [View article]
    Thanks for clearing that up, Steve! Shame on me A for using arithmetic examples to reach algebraic conclusions. I should have stopped with just the simple point that only two days matter: the day that drops out, and the day that drops in. Somewhere in his crib, Benjamin Button is laughing.
    Aug 19 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Curious Mathematics Of Moving Averages [View article]
    Oh definitely. My point was simply that by using [first plus last, divided by two] you get the exact same values for the MA, and indeed this is EXACTLY how computer routines (warming the hearts of FORTran programmers) do the calculations. By all means plot the MA of your choice along with the underlying price series and use it to obtain technical signals. Just remember: all moving averages are two day moving averages: the two days are just not adjacent to one another.
    Aug 19 03:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Rising Interest Rates Doom Utilities As An Investment? [View article]
    Thanks. I wanted it to be plain, short, and simple. No hemming and hawing about this and that and the other thing being different. Do higher rates doom utilities: well,in recent decades it sure is a tough current to row against.
    Aug 18 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Rising Interest Rates Doom Utilities As An Investment? [View article]
    Good point you-know-who doggy dogg! I again snicker that I thought, as so many others did, that rates would surge this year. I remain convinced that they will rise soon, and in fact should be higher already...but damn those facts keep getting in the way!
    Aug 18 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TheĀ Italian Runaway Train [View article]
    Europe is becoming my favorite Third World Country.
    Aug 18 01:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil resumes decline as "speculative steam" exits via banks [View news story]
    Yeah what is also missing is discredited "peak oil" theories and anti fracking whack jobs from Colorado to upstate New York. And what will SOON be missing is a democrat-led senate. Once the republicans starve Obama discredited regulations out of existence we'll finally see some economic growth.
    Aug 18 01:45 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Key Tests For The True Dividend Growth Investor [View article]
    Nice article Eric. One side issue that people usually leave out in DGI is the related issue of CONTROLLING your expenses so that you learn to live within the means that your dividends give you. In any case, prudent selection of dividend growers selling at attractive cash flow/earnings multiples has been a hallmark of successful investors for decades. It is a key tenet of the Value Line Investment Survey, as well.
    Aug 16 10:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Of An Approaching Bear Market [View article]
    I don't call em permabears anymore...I call em CAPEd crusaders. What this article says has been true for YEARS...so why should the market weaken now? Tell me some recent evidence of cracks: breadth; highs lows; earnings weakness.....

    I also think the market is getting the wobblies lately...but we'll know soon enough if this most recent bout of selling is just another blip on the way to new highs!
    Aug 14 05:12 PM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Is The End Near? [View article]
    Provenge...Neuvenge......
    Aug 13 03:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will Drive Future Growth For General Electric? [View article]
    "At present, Africa has an installed capacity of 147 GW, which is roughly equal to installed capacity of Belgium or what China adds in a year or two. With this capacity, over half of the Sub-Saharan Africa would remain without electricity for even more than a decade. To overcome this shortage, Africa will need to add 250 GW of capacity till 2030"

    This paragraph explains why the incredible "growth rates" for Africa are so misleading. They are starting from a remarkably low base...in some countries, near zero.

    Nor is adding 250 between now and 2030 particularly ambitious, though I may be misunderstanding your sentence.
    Aug 13 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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