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Gary Jakacky

 
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  • The Bubble's Name Must Be Godot: We Keep Waiting And Waiting [View article]
    There was no "mistake" in 1937. The economy crashed as fiscal policy was rolled back because Fiscal policy does not work. Japan has been using fiscal stimulus since their crash in the LATE 1980s...i was there when they were building highways, more base housing and of COURSE bullet trains....and 25 years later it is STILL TOO LATE to stop priming the pump.

    In any case though about bonds, thank for the reference. I agree it may be a fools errand to trade the bond market short side. I tend to to option spreads where my losses are STRICTLY limited; and my cash income modest.
    Aug 22 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bubble's Name Must Be Godot: We Keep Waiting And Waiting [View article]
    To Bill, AOW, and Minuteman: I Agree also. Do you feel bonds have been strong this year because of flight capital (from Europe, mideast, etc) or some other factors? DO you think that gold will also sell off?
    Aug 21 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bubble's Name Must Be Godot: We Keep Waiting And Waiting [View article]
    Actually there is a great article from someone else on SA today that says something parallel: you don't have to be in a Bubble to go into a bear market. I agree but that was not the subject of THIS particular article.
    Aug 21 12:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney Might Go To $100 As Quickly As You Can Blink Your Eyelids [View article]
    I hope Marty Feldman likes this stock...always liked the way he blinks.
    Aug 21 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bubble's Name Must Be Godot: We Keep Waiting And Waiting [View article]
    Good point....but let me say that folks who make comments about bubbles were, IN THE PAST, correct about their analysis and timing, even if they were voices howling in the wilderness for many quarters. The point of my article is despite all this "bubble talk," if you look at some of the strongest performers in the Dow, they are not anywhere near bubble levels. And folks who howled about a bubble in early June missed out on some big gains in those shares.

    You call it anchoring: I just call it a craze. "Bubble" is the new word. Everyone has to use it or they feel outdated and left out of the Wall Street crowd. In economics, "the new normal" is the new pet word. A good whiff of Reaganomics will blow bubbleers and new normalizers into the trash bin of history.
    Aug 21 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bubble's Name Must Be Godot: We Keep Waiting And Waiting [View article]
    Nomad ya got me confused. I thought eponymous would be appropriate because S&P500 funds are "SPYders," off of the name, or the first few syllables. Don't tell me one day after making a mistake with arithmetic I am now making a mistake with diction!

    Can you show us your linear regression model with DIS? What is the diagonal about? Is it a Gann line?
    Aug 21 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bubble's Name Must Be Godot: We Keep Waiting And Waiting [View article]
    What about the trillions in money market funds yielding 0.01%? Once we deregulate and unleash entrepreneurial animal spirits, that money will seek both retail and financial markets. Much as in the Carter ("malaise") days, our dumbed down president and his dufflepud administration is convinced 1% GDP growth is a thing of the future.
    Aug 21 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Invest Wisely Or Prepare For Sticker Shock: A Message For All Parents [View article]
    And, if like me you don't have kids (or a house, a car, and other accoutrements of todays society) then a systematic savings/investment/div... plan like this works even more admirably.
    Aug 21 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great News: The Fed Is Likely To Raise Rates Sooner Rather Than Later [View article]
    That is a valid point diva, but not the end of it all. Lowering rates pushes on a string: we are living in a classic example of this. That is why Pundit has been talking about fiscal drag (from higher taxes) and regulatory drag (from Obamacare and other foolishness from EPA to FCC). Get rid of those, as Reagan did, and we will see another 20 year burst of entrepreneurship and the Dow much higher.
    Aug 21 08:15 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Curious Mathematics Of Moving Averages [View article]
    Yes, Kishavan. I find expo moving averages a bit too ad hoc for my taste; but many traders like them because they are "more responsive."
    Aug 20 09:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Curious Mathematics Of Moving Averages [View article]
    Kishavan: something cannot be worse than useless. If indicator "x" makes you lose money, than indicator "-x" (by that i mean follow the opposite of what it recommends....would be an improvement. If the information so scrambles your thoughts that it increases risk and volatility, you are correct: either way you are worse off.

    WOW...i learned more about moving averages having made an arithmetic error than if it was done correctly. I'll have to make mistakes more often.
    Aug 20 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day Ahead - Our Own Worst Enemy? [View article]
    Are there any other clues that SPY (And other indices) might poke thru? Advance/decline; on balance volume, whatever? Lets hope you are correct and the bulls dispatch another summer swoon to history.
    Aug 20 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Curious Mathematics Of Moving Averages [View article]
    I know there have also been proposals to completely rebase the major stock indexes, especially the Dow and Nikkei, which are in the thousands. The numbers frighten people, and while we all know it has to do with stock splits and spinoffs, whatever; it still would be a good idea to just "reset" the base figure at 100 or whatever at the start of every decade. Standard and Poors ORIGINALLY said they were going to do this when they started their index back in the 1950s. That idea has been abandoned, apparently.

    In the meantime I will continue to work, make occasional stupid errors, and endure the deserved slings and arrows of outrageous fortune!
    Aug 20 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Curious Mathematics Of Moving Averages [View article]
    Seriously. ABD meaning not a PHD, all but dissertation. My worst math error was on an exam way back in high school, an HONORS course in physics. I spent 25 minutes of a 50 minute exam solving a formula (it was bizarre with logarithms, radicals, exponents and such) for a variable.....

    turns out THAT variable was given! I needed to solve for a different one.

    Guess that explains why I am not a physicist.
    Aug 20 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Curious Mathematics Of Moving Averages [View article]
    Kishavan thanks for the algebraic formulation. Had I sat down and minded my x's and y's as closely as a I do my p's and q's, i would not have made this error. I was concentrating on whether the MA rose or fell, rather than it's absolute level.

    Some of my stocks have followed a straight linear path, Aucoaster.....unfortun... it was down! :)
    Aug 19 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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