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Gary Jakacky

 
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  • The Fed Won't Change Its Language? REALLY!? [View article]
    Good point on the first paragraph. As for why the FED has pumped so much money out there, as CBP says elsewhere on SA< it is to satisfy the demand for safe assets---not to buy things; thus there is no retail inflation burst.

    As that need for safety wanes, the FED needs to drain that back out the economy. It is doing so; but if it wimps out on ZIRP I will be disappointed.
    Sep 17 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Won't Change Its Language? REALLY!? [View article]
    First I crawl into a small hole and start crying. :)

    To be really honest, I will be disappointed.

    I think stocks will initially rise, then sell off once they realize ZIRP means the FED, not the economy, is what rules the market. Inverse for other markets.
    Sep 17 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Won't Change Its Language? REALLY!? [View article]
    because these countries don't need QE...they need fiscal, tax, regulatory, and judicial policies which are favorable to entrepreneurship, risk taking, and REWARDS FOR SUCCESS instead of penalties; not more free money cool aid.
    Sep 17 08:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Won't Change Its Language? REALLY!? [View article]
    Correct. I will fully admit I use Calafia Beach Pundit as the fountainhead of all my secondary (And vastly inferior) analysis. And he has sung the "slow but steady growth" song for 4 years. I am much richer for it. The FED watchers have had their heads in the sand all this time.
    Sep 16 08:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Won't Change Its Language? REALLY!? [View article]
    Correct. So when (I think) the FED does change the language; and when it does start to raise rates, I don't think it will tank the market. Why should the market be afraid of stronger demand for capital because the economy is growing?
    Sep 16 08:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Won't Change Its Language? REALLY!? [View article]
    Steve: if the FED does indeed change the language tomorrow...what do you think will happen? I expect a knee jerk selloff in stocks, followed by a recovery.

    But lower gold and bonds.
    Sep 16 08:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Won't Change Its Language? REALLY!? [View article]
    Awww shucks User.....but you have the argument a bit misunderstood. It is up to INVESTORS to learn that the fundamental factors are what matter...not some crumbs thrown from the Fed Chairwoman and her dufflepuds.
    Sep 16 08:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Won't Change Its Language? REALLY!? [View article]
    correct. FED watching began in the 1970s with the popularity of monetarism; which oddly enough generally argues that the FED SHOULD BE irrelevant. I won't go that far: I just think extending their role into employment (in contrast to just interest rates and lender of last resort) was a big mistake.
    Sep 16 08:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Do When A Stock Reaches Your Price Objectives: An Example From 3M [View article]
    Yes that would in fact be the superior option in many cases...but i didn't want to lose the forest (valuation as the target for selling) for the trees (methods of selling). Good point.
    Sep 16 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Headed Lower As Strong Dollar, Higher Interest Rates Loom [View article]
    ===>But I do disagree with the health of our economy, I think it is all based in printing. Rapid deficit spending is the only source of any positive headlines out there. This economy is a mess. <===

    Wrong. While the economy is not in a rip roaring recovery, it is recovering and the data coming in are real. I suggest you start reading another SA author, Calafia Beach Pundit, for the best treatment of this subject. As an example the fossil fuel revolution has added billions of dollars to the economy. Medical and medical device breakthroughs continue unabated. And now that even global warmingists agree the process has stopped, trillions of dollars of regulatory burdens will now never materialize.
    Sep 16 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Short And Waiting For The Washout [View article]
    Don't forget you can short gold by buying the reverse ETF, DGZ. Thanks for the idea of a WASHOUT....written by a true trader, meaning you are always looking on BOTH sides of the market. A very helpful article.
    Sep 16 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Headed Lower As Strong Dollar, Higher Interest Rates Loom [View article]
    By the way folks yesterday there was an article on seeking alpha turning this logic around in a different way: falling gold is forecasting higher rates! HAHAHAH.

    To answer some comments:

    (1) I expect the strong dollar to continue as our economy does better in the near future and the FED ends QE.

    (2) I agree with what you say nooseah, but it is not the FED which is stuck..it is the government. The days of absolutely free money are over. In my nastier moods I want to roll over the short term debt to long term debt (50, maybe even 100 year bonds)...sell it to the Chinese, the latest naive buyers of US bonds, and let modest inflation do the rest.

    (3) Steve: thanks, it is true the relationship is not always so simple. I almost left the dollar out of my analysis, because with it's 4 year or so rectangle it has been really, going nowhere. I think though it is going to break out upside; and that will really crush metals.

    (4) AF: I will keenly watch Soros...lets not argue with a legend. Personally I don't lie the guy and his left wing views....so I hope being opposite him in a trade redistributes a bit of his wealth to me. :)

    Gary
    Sep 16 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond ETFs: Selling The Rumor, Buying The News [View article]
    Billbyte I think most of Gary's analysis contains within it the "what if" scenario should things go the other way: you have those moving average levels, and if they regain strength, then you have a pretty basic stop-loss point.
    Sep 15 08:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time For Southwest Airlines To Charge For Luggage? [View article]
    The airlines should charge for TOTAL weight of luggage plus the passenger.

    Why should some 350 pound COW with a cosmetic carryon pay less than a 200 pound guy with 50 lbs of business gear?
    Sep 15 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama Outperforms Reagan On Jobs, Growth And Investing [View article]
    I always felt that if we didn't have two-term limit for Presidents, Bill Clinton would STILL be president. Bush, McCain, Gore, Obama, Romney? Pa-THET-ic!
    Sep 12 02:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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