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Gary Jakacky  

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  • Hawaii Net Metering Changes Have Far-Reaching Consequences For Residential Solar Industry [View article]
    YAY! solar power has to sell at wholesale like everybody else! Whoopee....
    Oct 16, 2015. 11:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation Is A Solid 2% [View article]
    Raising rate would not only help retirees and low income would drain capital out of socialist ratholes like the EU and China. Heaven forbid that they should collapse like Russia....we all know how bearish that was (NOT!).
    Oct 16, 2015. 11:06 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Scary Charts: October 14, 2015 Update [View article]
    Good charts but CAlafia Beach Pundit (another SA writer) covers these and more, explanations, analysis, and longer time periods.
    Oct 15, 2015. 09:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Don't Miss An Opportunity To Add A Dividend Aristocrat At Bargain Pricing! [View article]
    And you savvy options traders can write puts (or bullish put spreads, which strictly limit your risk) against this outstanding stock.
    Oct 15, 2015. 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Aristocrats Part 7 Of 52: Brown-Forman [View article]
    I love the sequels. It is like the old Soap Operas...but this one makes ya money. We've gone from the "Edge of Night" to the edge of retirement.
    Oct 15, 2015. 12:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETF Leveraged Daily Trading Service For 10-15-2015 [View article]
    There is a method to your madness, Doug! Rich madness, though! Keep writing.
    Oct 15, 2015. 12:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Theory, The Economy And A New Bear Market [View article]
    Wow...funny you mention banging away a kryptonite head. When I studied probability and statistics in college I used to go CRAZY solving some statistics problems like

    "What is the probability that 'X' will occur?"

    After hours i'd give up in frustration.

    In class the next day the prof would say..."that is equal to...

    [1 - probability it would not occur] "

    which could be done in about 5 seconds!

    Oct 15, 2015. 11:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola: 20% Discount At $41 [View article]
    Oil Can the discount rate is an "interest rate" at which the future cash flows or earnings are "discounted" (thus the name) and, since the series of cash flows is either not infinite or is bound to converge upon one number (I have had engineering as well...hope ya like the calculus references), that gives you your valuation. So for a few years the equation would look like this:

    [CF1/d] + [CF2/(d**2)] + [CF3/(d**3)]

    Where CFs are cash flows and d is the discount rate. If the discount rate or required rate of return is 10%, then d would [1.00 + .10] or 1.10.

    D is a small number like 1.09, 1.10, 1.11 in many cases, and since it is in the DENOMINATOR , it can have a tremendous impact on the value f the fractions and the final sum. The fact that future years are raised to higher powers makes it even more important to get "D" right.

    In short, as you suspect, the Value is sensitive to the discount rate.

    There are in turn OTHER formulas by which D is "calculated" using beta, or the cost of company debt, or long term interest rates, etc. but these just pile more assumptions into the model and make it more complex but less meaningful.

    Hope this helped a bit.
    Oct 15, 2015. 09:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix misses by $0.01, misses on revenue [View news story]
    Good. Now if we can just get the FCC to say "Screw net neutrality, you data hogs are gonna pay FULL FREIGHT!" NetFlix would go the way of the DoDo. Lemme see....a media company...PE ratio of 14x...7 cents the last quarter...$1.00 a share...
    Oct 14, 2015. 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart News Suggests That Corporate Margins Are Reverting To The Mean [View article]
    Wow this is all very interesting because in a brief comment and interview Milton Friedman, many years ago, suggested the surplus labor (workers around the world) would depress returns to labor and increase returns to capital. Could this ENTIRE process be reversing worldwide? It sure seems awfully soon for this to occur: plenty of 3rd world countries to assemble stuff at cut rate prices. The simplest explanation is probably the best.

    And don't forget WalMart has been sucking up to the latest Democrat drivel about raising wages, yadda yadda. It is far more likely that, like in the 1960s and early 1970s, there is going to be a war on capital and entrepreneurship: and we will end up with market PEs averaging 5x.

    Hang on!
    Oct 14, 2015. 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q3 GDP growth forecasts quickly being cut [View news story]
    Don't listen to Eonomists, WPC (I am one). Listen to the MARKETS. They have been weak for months...and may have recently given a recession/bear market signal.
    Oct 14, 2015. 04:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Elbit Systems Touched My Price Objective: Where Do We Go From Here? [View article]
    I am beginning to wonder if ESLT will ever get coverage because of the nature of the business together with it being an Israeli company. I look forward to hearing your thoughts about this as it gets very lonely owning shares of ESLT."

    There are several things that prevent ESLT from getting coverage in the media, including SA though SA is not guilty if the greater transgressions.

    (1) It is supposedly "politics" to discuss things like a country's security, its attempt to defend itself, and so on.
    (2) The American left infested news media will NEVER acknowledge the need for defense and offensive weapons in their countries, while winking and nodding at Russians, Chinese, Arabs, North Koreans and increasingly, Africans.
    (3) Drones are supposedly "immoral" weapons in some way, despite the fact that are far more precision targets. I have seen videos of them killing the passenger in the back seat of a vehicle while the driver doesn't even notice.
    (4) Israel adds more income/wealth to world GDP/asset base in a DAY than the rest of the Arab world adds in decades. To the chattering classes nothing deserves to fail like success.

    I could go on and on but I my Trump button is catching fire.
    Oct 11, 2015. 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elbit Systems Touched My Price Objective: Where Do We Go From Here? [View article]
    If you look at the ESLT previous articles there is more fundamental analysis: but I always combine the two. What are earnings/cash flows, how do they compare to historical multiples; do those multiples correspond to important chart points; and where would all these be in the future. Everyone has a system they stick to; this one is mine. All my articles follow this style.
    Oct 10, 2015. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T, T-Mobile agree to spectrum swap [View news story]
    Pending FCC approval......another two year dither like Direct TV I'll bet.
    Oct 9, 2015. 11:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elbit Systems Touched My Price Objective: Where Do We Go From Here? [View article]
    Thanks for dealing with a similar set of issues as I discuss. What do you think would be a price to make them "cheap," but a realistic price? I was tempted to suggest the channel would break but given recent mideast flareups on Israels borders and the role drones may play for all the belligerents, I edged to the bullish side.
    Oct 8, 2015. 08:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment