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Gary Jakacky

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  • Tumbling oil leads commodity slide [View news story]
    By the way when commodity prices were rising it was meant inflation, and less money to spend on other goods...and global warming induced famines..yadda yadda yadda.

    No doubt falling commodity prices will be bearish as well. Cue the permabears!
    Sep 30, 2014. 01:42 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirees, You CAN Count On Dividend Stocks To Deliver From Here [View article]
    One odd comment I wish to make. You would think the various dividend ETFs would have better yield and dividend growth than they do. Any idea why, from you guys?
    Sep 30, 2014. 12:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Common Sense And The Foolishness Of Income Redistribution [View article]
    Dave thanks for your follow ups and rebuttals...reading comments gobbles up time for SA folks but in cases like this it is worth it. I have a couple quibbles.

    (1) Individuals never implement fiscal policy. YES THEY DO: there is no supra individual known as "the government." It is run by individuals who have the same incentives and weaknesses as individuals do elsewhere. And they fit squarely and securely in category IV.buying things for strangers with someone else's money. Buchanan won the Nobel Prize in Economics pointing this out.

    (2) The success of world WWII and after was because, unlike social spending and redistribution of wealth, defense is EXCLUSIVELY a federal government function. And whether pacifists like it or not, war creates wealth (by destroying its enemies), war generates marketable skills (service, promptness, responsibility, civility), and military service generates skills useful in the private sector when they return to it: especially these days. WWII created wealth which we STILL BENEFIT from. In contrast, the "war" on poverty created NOTHING.

    (3) It is very relevant that people now know how markets work. They understand that Keynesian policies poorly stimulate current growth at the fatal costs of substantial FUTURE growth; and they invest accordingly.

    What ya should do Dave is write a SA article. With all this writing ya do ya may as well get paid for it. I for one will be a reader.
    Sep 30, 2014. 11:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk Adjusted Sector ETF Performance: An Update [View article]
    Adam: if the economy was slowing down, bonds would be doing better than utilities. They are not. My thesis is that interest rates are rising in the US (screw the rest of the world at the moment) because our economy is on moderate footing. Thus I expect continued higher rates, stronger dollar, weaker commodities, and reasonable XLU performance. AS the article suggests though, it might be XLY to pop as fuel prices fall.
    Sep 30, 2014. 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Common Sense And The Foolishness Of Income Redistribution [View article]
    For the longest time I thought Paris Hilton was the Hilton, in Paris. Humor aside, your argument collapses with, "not so much." That is in YOUR value judgement. Some people see little value in options trading (HEAVENS!?!) The genius of markets is that the value of a good is determined by joint agreement of buyers (who WANT THE GOOD) and sellers (who DON'T want it).
    Sep 29, 2014. 05:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Common Sense And The Foolishness Of Income Redistribution [View article]
    David...a couple points

    (1) Sadly I am not a Dr. I squibbed out on my PhD proposal and told my dissertation committee to go take a hike. So I am never got my doctorate. I did have the title "professor," at some places where I taught, but I never considered myself a prof in the "publish or perish" sense. Maybe some day I will win an ignoble prize, but that will be about it.

    (2) Thanks for the historical comment on Fiscal Policy. While it adds some perspective, i do not see how it voids my 4x4 matrix and the core argument that individuals spend their money better than 3rd parties do.

    (3) I am aware of the fact that politicians have perverted Keynesian policy in that they never "restore the tax cuts" (And spending increases) they enacted in the dark days. But this is EXACTLY my and many other economists point: Keynesianism rests on the ridiculous premise that this would not occur. And when politicians try and enact spending cuts (raising taxes has never been an issue) they are demagogued by liberals---yes, liberals--- for doing so.

    (4) Keynesian might have worked back a few decades ago when the average citizen had little knowledge of economics and markets. Now many of them do. They know darn well that the deficits used to finance growth NOW will hamper growth LATER. The net effect is zero (or less), and as the publics understanding of the investment/budget process increases, the sooner the zero effect arrives.

    (5) I do not claim to understand ALL of Keynes, or any other theory. But I know enough to formulate cogent arguments, none of which have been specifically refuted in your or other comments.
    Sep 29, 2014. 02:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Common Sense And The Foolishness Of Income Redistribution [View article]
    And whatever ya do, Albert...don't chew gum and DON'T SPIT!!!

    Your middle paragraph is a more sophisticated version of my 4x4 matrix. Well phrased.

    The outstanding performance of the US economy is entirely due to the republicans (Small "R") in the House, who have kept the growth rate in Federal spending at its lowest level since the latter Clinton years. The party has finally realized that winning downstream tickets (state and local legislatures and governors mansions) means they can cancel out the ignorance of the inner cities with better redistricting and build a conservative base.
    Sep 29, 2014. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intuitive Surgical: Concerns Remain But Expansion Into Emerging Markets Could Revive Growth [View article]
    I agree Gary. What I want from ISRG is a real wicked P.O.'d management team that gets out there with some fire in their gut and rebuts these arguments about costs and robot mishaps. Instead they sit back, give themselves generous share payments, and hide the dilution with "buybacks."

    I do like TREFIS analyses, though.
    Sep 29, 2014. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Common Sense And The Foolishness Of Income Redistribution [View article]
    Asbytec I have learned to distinguish between rural and urban poverty, though of course I have experience neither. Urban poverty is grinding misery, amid urban filth, gangs, stifling heat in summer and freezing winters. Rural poverty is very often simply the absence of city-slicker amenities. When I was in Nicaragua everyone had their clothes on the line, even though it was pouring rain. It was warm enough that when ya needed a new shirt ya just put one on. So what if it was was gonna be wet soon anyway! I was in central america during Hurricane Mitch in 1998.

    People misunderstood my casino metaphor. I don't like casinos...I think states would be better off to just legalize gambling and allow it at the lowest levels. Just as the bartender knows the troublemakers in a tavern, he knows the compulsive gamblers and can act to stop their habit.

    I take the "extreme" viewpoint in many of my Keynesian articles, simply because it is easier to debate the extremes rather than have another endless "on the other hand...yadda yadda" type of journalism which runs rampant here at SA and elsewhere. All you need is a thick skin and a humorous willingness to admit both mistakes and valid points made by the opposition.
    Sep 29, 2014. 09:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Common Sense And The Foolishness Of Income Redistribution [View article]
    Very often it is, Nuahw. But it is the truth, so it deserves to be shouted from the ramparts.
    Sep 29, 2014. 09:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Common Sense And The Foolishness Of Income Redistribution [View article]
    Asbytec on my world cycling tour I was in Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Honduras, (among many other places). They would classify as third world nations. I found little evidence of MATERIAL Wealth, simply because the nations are too corrupt to establish a true infrastructure of liberty, from great highways and railways to independent banking and communications. I found a lot of evidence of "nonmaterial" wealth though: the lifestyles were simple, the pace of life was pleasantly slow, interpersonal relationships were far more common and meaningful.
    Sep 29, 2014. 09:12 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Major Stock Market Selloff Looms As The Fed's QE3 Ends [View article]
    The sky is falling the sky is falling! Bubble articles are in a bubble! Never mind the explosion of innovation in fracking, medicine, and manufacturing! WE need a few more years of Jimmy Carter aka Barack Hussein Obama to salve our guilt!
    Sep 28, 2014. 08:59 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Drones In The Air, Not Boots On The Ground: Buy Elbit Systems [View article]
    To Mike and Fox:

    This is a larger issue of course; but in fact investing in defense firms of this nature is MORE than moral to me. Drones and precision weapons reduce casualties, including civilian casualties. That to me is a step forward.
    Sep 27, 2014. 02:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Simple Regression Debunks A Simple Short Thesis; Buy Sturm, Ruger And Smith & Wesson [View article]
    Or in short, when it comes to your portfolio, LOCK AND LOAD!
    Sep 27, 2014. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple -2.8% as Bendgate, iOS 8.01 get more publicity [View news story]
    that is two words.
    Sep 25, 2014. 05:18 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment