Comments on Gary Lucido's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/gary-lucido/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/91146-a-blockbuster-arbitrage-opportunity?source=feed#comment-800873 800873 Thu, 10 Dec 2009 22:42:03 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147582-buying-and-selling-houses-virtually-on-the-new-york-stock-exchange?source=feed#comment-579704 579704 With fees like that, both funds are very very low on my list of prospective > ETF investments. The structure is intriguing, but the fees make > this look like a terrible investment. Leverage actually makes things > worse. And at termination, you can sell off the futures contracts > on commodities fairly easily (I doubt any investors wanted to receive > the actual barrels of oil) - can you do the same for real estate?]]> Wed, 08 Jul 2009 18:44:03 -0400

On Jul 08 09:15 AM donzelion wrote:

> With fees like that, both funds are very very low on my list of prospective
> ETF investments. The structure is intriguing, but the fees make
> this look like a terrible investment. Leverage actually makes things
> worse. And at termination, you can sell off the futures contracts
> on commodities fairly easily (I doubt any investors wanted to receive
> the actual barrels of oil) - can you do the same for real estate?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147582-buying-and-selling-houses-virtually-on-the-new-york-stock-exchange?source=feed#comment-578685 578685 Wed, 08 Jul 2009 09:30:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147582-buying-and-selling-houses-virtually-on-the-new-york-stock-exchange?source=feed#comment-578629 578629 Wed, 08 Jul 2009 09:15:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/59493-does-market-timing-actually-work?source=feed#comment-523958 523958 Sat, 30 May 2009 08:21:58 -0400 If you review many of the studies, you do find that many of the "best" days are recovery days following some of the "worst" days. If you were not invested in the worst days you would not need
the best days to earn back what you lost. Losses hurt a portfolio worse than gains because losses and gains do not have a linear relationship. Remember that a 50% loss requires a 100% gain to get back to par. I use two trend following models published in the mid 90's that got you out of the markets in early 2000 and in late 2007. The models did not get you back into the markets until mid 2003 and am still on the sidelines now. Having avoided both 50% bear markets, you do not have to rush to get back in to earn what you have lost. If you want to continue to listen to Wall Street you will continue to be dumb money. - TURBEDA]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-387917 387917 Fri, 13 Feb 2009 18:31:04 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-383533 383533 Wed, 11 Feb 2009 08:02:25 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-378374 378374 Fri, 06 Feb 2009 11:28:56 -0500
Interesting article. Can you explain then why OIL and presumably also USO tracked the price of crude so closely during 2008? When crude went up ~50% from Jan 1 through the peak, OIL was within just a couple percentage points. The same goes for the fall from the peak to the trough. I understand the mechanics of what you are saying, but until the last few weeks, the divergence doesn't seem to be significant. What is the explanation for that? Thanks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-375223 375223 Gary, > Another thing... I am into OIL right now. > > Like you said it tracked right with USO until about a month ago. > There seems to be ~4% delta there... Not sure how that works... > > > Any info on that would be great. Thanks.]]> Wed, 04 Feb 2009 06:57:00 -0500

On Feb 03 07:38 PM NewbieTom wrote:

> Gary,
> Another thing... I am into OIL right now.
>
> Like you said it tracked right with USO until about a month ago.
> There seems to be ~4% delta there... Not sure how that works...
>
>
> Any info on that would be great. Thanks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-374943 374943 Tue, 03 Feb 2009 19:38:03 -0500 Another thing... I am into OIL right now.

Like you said it tracked right with USO until about a month ago. There seems to be ~4% delta there... Not sure how that works...

Any info on that would be great. Thanks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-374785 374785 Tue, 03 Feb 2009 16:00:13 -0500
Okay, I feel taken a bit here. My fault I guess.

What are my options if all I want to do is buy a stock/ETF/anything that purely tracks the price of a barrel of oil.

I am a bit upset that my money does not ride strictly on the barrel of crude oil price rising, but instead on how well it is predicted by the futures market. So, in this case, it looks like I hope they are ultra conservative, because if they are too aggressive or spot on, I make nothing, regardless of my play on increasing prices...

Is there anything out there that can just play off the price of a barrel of oil without this? Am I dreaming?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-372669 372669 hey gary thanks alot . How does the oil index work - you explained > uso but not oil.]]> Sun, 01 Feb 2009 15:22:57 -0500

On Feb 01 04:10 AM User 348554 wrote:

> hey gary thanks alot . How does the oil index work - you explained
> uso but not oil.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-372358 372358 Sun, 01 Feb 2009 04:10:54 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-372017 372017 Sat, 31 Jan 2009 12:53:05 -0500
img261.imageshack.us/i...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-371365 371365 A further complication with USO is that it is invested 25% in natural > gas contracts.]]> Fri, 30 Jan 2009 14:22:55 -0500 unitedstatesoilfund.co...

However, this is really stupid. If I want to invest in natural gas I'll buy UNG.


On Jan 30 02:04 PM secmaven wrote:

> A further complication with USO is that it is invested 25% in natural
> gas contracts.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-371327 371327 Fri, 30 Jan 2009 14:04:21 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-371048 371048 Have you looked at USL, it's run by the same person / people as USO > but invests in a 12 month range of contracts, if you compare over > long term with USO on a percentage basis I think you'll find it performs > much better in contango]]> Fri, 30 Jan 2009 10:37:50 -0500

On Jan 30 08:38 AM tradetime wrote:

> Have you looked at USL, it's run by the same person / people as USO
> but invests in a 12 month range of contracts, if you compare over
> long term with USO on a percentage basis I think you'll find it performs
> much better in contango]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-371044 371044 Have you looked at USL, it's run by the same person / people as USO > but invests in a 12 month range of contracts, if you compare over > long term with USO on a percentage basis I think you'll find it performs > much better in contango]]> Fri, 30 Jan 2009 10:35:22 -0500

On Jan 30 08:38 AM tradetime wrote:

> Have you looked at USL, it's run by the same person / people as USO
> but invests in a 12 month range of contracts, if you compare over
> long term with USO on a percentage basis I think you'll find it performs
> much better in contango]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-370844 370844 Fri, 30 Jan 2009 08:38:30 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-370757 370757 There is no manipulation. My article explains why USO doesn't track > spot prices and the link directly above explains the issues with > double long and short funds.]]> Fri, 30 Jan 2009 06:26:28 -0500 because oil has risen up 30%.
The market should have its basic game rules,oil has risen but doule bull ETFs are falling sharply and double bear ETFs are rising strongly, who believe it reasonable without price manipulation? And investor do the market according what ?
To have a careul study, oil fall from 147$ to 42$,that's 3 times, but hou.to
from 48$ to 1.53$( which equals last close 7.63$ after 5:1 consolidation)that's over 30 times. 10 times for crude oil.
So complication can not explain the simplisity. Too much for the price control hurts every body. And IOP of the ETF　ｉｓ　ａ　ｐｌｏｔ．


On Jan 29 10:35 PM Gary Lucido wrote:

> There is no manipulation. My article explains why USO doesn't track
> spot prices and the link directly above explains the issues with
> double long and short funds.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-370714 370714 If it sucks to hold USO long term while there is contango, what should > I buy if I want to bet that oil will head up in the long term?]]> Fri, 30 Jan 2009 04:01:18 -0500

On Jan 30 01:38 AM DHH wrote:

> If it sucks to hold USO long term while there is contango, what should
> I buy if I want to bet that oil will head up in the long term?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-370681 370681 Fri, 30 Jan 2009 01:38:27 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-370674 370674 Fri, 30 Jan 2009 01:15:10 -0500
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-370611 370611 Crude oil has risen from 32$ to 42$, that's 30% up altogether. But > why USO still stay at the level of its lows ?I t should be around > 40$. > Also DTO double bear should down 60% because of its double about > 80$, but why it still stay at the high level of 180 ? If there is > "severe contango " ,should exist in both of the two funds, but "severe > contango " can't explain the true reason for the funds tracking the > crude oil index. Only one thing is there----That's "severe manipulation > "rather than " severe contango" . > The canadian EFT hou.to and hod.to are more radiculous. For crude > oil has risen from 32$ to 42$, so hou.to should be at around 11$ > or more > but when crude oil up 1.2% it up 1.1%, crude down 1.6,it down 4.1%,so > hou.to has fallen down over 30 times from 48$, and right now it is > just equal to1.525$(5:1consolidat... or 7.63$ now, but oil is just > down 147/41.5=3 times. > So contango can explain nothing, Just price manipulation. > Here I believe the market should be fair, just, open to every investor,and > it should have a comparatively reasonable game rules.Or the market > is robbing money from investor directly. So I call for an investigation > from New York stock Exchange to get rid of the clear price manipulation. > > If you are interested my opinion, you can compare the 4 ETF: USO > bull and DTO bear; HOU.TO bull and HOD bear which is more distinct > example for price manipulation rather than so called " contango ".Let > up to complain to New York stock Exchange.]]> Thu, 29 Jan 2009 22:35:32 -0500

On Jan 29 08:21 PM 777 wrote:

> Crude oil has risen from 32$ to 42$, that's 30% up altogether. But
> why USO still stay at the level of its lows ?I t should be around
> 40$.
> Also DTO double bear should down 60% because of its double about
> 80$, but why it still stay at the high level of 180 ? If there is
> "severe contango " ,should exist in both of the two funds, but "severe
> contango " can't explain the true reason for the funds tracking the
> crude oil index. Only one thing is there----That's "severe manipulation
> "rather than " severe contango" .
> The canadian EFT hou.to and hod.to are more radiculous. For crude
> oil has risen from 32$ to 42$, so hou.to should be at around 11$
> or more
> but when crude oil up 1.2% it up 1.1%, crude down 1.6,it down 4.1%,so
> hou.to has fallen down over 30 times from 48$, and right now it is
> just equal to1.525$(5:1consolidat... or 7.63$ now, but oil is just
> down 147/41.5=3 times.
> So contango can explain nothing, Just price manipulation.
> Here I believe the market should be fair, just, open to every investor,and
> it should have a comparatively reasonable game rules.Or the market
> is robbing money from investor directly. So I call for an investigation
> from New York stock Exchange to get rid of the clear price manipulation.
>
> If you are interested my opinion, you can compare the 4 ETF: USO
> bull and DTO bear; HOU.TO bull and HOD bear which is more distinct
> example for price manipulation rather than so called " contango ".Let
> up to complain to New York stock Exchange.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-370610 370610 Gary, > > Would you care to comment on the ETN's, DXO and DTO, their structure > and the ramifications of trading re. your article? > > ]]> Thu, 29 Jan 2009 22:33:22 -0500 www.investingminds.com...


On Jan 29 07:35 PM User 347374 wrote:

> Gary,
>
> Would you care to comment on the ETN's, DXO and DTO, their structure
> and the ramifications of trading re. your article?
>
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-370605 370605 Quick follow-up question - can you provide a link that details: > > 2. The futures contract against which USO is calculated?]]> Thu, 29 Jan 2009 22:30:31 -0500 www.unitedstatesoilfun...


On Jan 29 01:41 PM allinstox wrote:

> Quick follow-up question - can you provide a link that details:

>
> 2. The futures contract against which USO is calculated?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-370604 370604 UOY volume 6,062 shares > DOY volume 100 shares > > 10.55AM New York time > > The penny stocks have bigger volume than this 2 Oil ETN's. > On UOY bid/ask 13.00-13.31=2.5% > On DOY bid/ask 35.09-35.18=0.8% > With such liquidity and spread it is a suicide to trade it, if one > believes Oil is a buy he can buy any Oil/Gas stock or for direct > Crude Oil investment buy USO and for shorting sell USO.]]> Thu, 29 Jan 2009 22:28:48 -0500

On Jan 29 10:59 AM ROLEX18K wrote:

> UOY volume 6,062 shares
> DOY volume 100 shares
>
> 10.55AM New York time
>
> The penny stocks have bigger volume than this 2 Oil ETN's.
> On UOY bid/ask 13.00-13.31=2.5%
> On DOY bid/ask 35.09-35.18=0.8%
> With such liquidity and spread it is a suicide to trade it, if one
> believes Oil is a buy he can buy any Oil/Gas stock or for direct
> Crude Oil investment buy USO and for shorting sell USO.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-370602 370602 Gary, > > Just curious, how does DBO fit into the mix here? It seems far less > volatile than the other funds you mention even though it also invests > in an index that is comprised of Light Sweet Crude futures?]]> Thu, 29 Jan 2009 22:27:44 -0500

On Jan 29 10:47 AM SA Editor Jonathan Liss wrote:

> Gary,
>
> Just curious, how does DBO fit into the mix here? It seems far less
> volatile than the other funds you mention even though it also invests
> in an index that is comprised of Light Sweet Crude futures?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-370530 370530 Thu, 29 Jan 2009 20:25:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117344-oil-etfs-and-etns-more-complicated-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-370529 370529 Thu, 29 Jan 2009 20:21:27 -0500 Also DTO double bear should down 60% because of its double about 80$, but why it still stay at the high level of 180 ? If there is "severe contango " ,should exist in both of the two funds, but "severe contango " can't explain the true reason for the funds tracking the crude oil index. Only one thing is there----That's "severe manipulation "rather than " severe contango" .
The canadian EFT hou.to and hod.to are more radiculous. For crude oil has risen from 32$ to 42$, so hou.to should be at around 11$ or more
but when crude oil up 1.2% it up 1.1%, crude down 1.6,it down 4.1%,so hou.to has fallen down over 30 times from 48$, and right now it is just equal to1.525$(5:1consolidat... or 7.63$ now, but oil is just down 147/41.5=3 times.
So contango can explain nothing, Just price manipulation.
Here I believe the market should be fair, just, open to every investor,and it should have a comparatively reasonable game rules.Or the market is robbing money from investor directly. So I call for an investigation from New York stock Exchange to get rid of the clear price manipulation.
If you are interested my opinion, you can compare the 4 ETF: USO bull and DTO bear; HOU.TO bull and HOD bear which is more distinct example for price manipulation rather than so called " contango ".Let up to complain to New York stock Exchange.
]]>