Gary Lucido

Oil Prices and the "Bigger Fool" Theory

The speculation story makes no sense: www.investingminds.com...

Furthermore, you say " Our long-term oil forecast looking out 20 years is [for crude] to fall back to $75 a barrel, or some lower number.

This sentence perfectly states why I think that current oil prices are now reflecting a bubble, or now even a bigger-fool type of market."

There is not a necessary connection between the two. You can believe that oil today should be $135 and will be much lower in the future. It all depends upon your view of supply and demand over time. Oil is highly inelastic in the short run but very elastic in the long run.