Gary Lucido

A Blockbuster Arbitrage Opportunity

I don't think they are negotiable. I'd say that there's a 50% chance I was told incorrect information and a 50% chance that there's some glitch somewhere that will work to my benefit.

A Blockbuster Arbitrage Opportunity

Thanks. I actually did that yesterday and saw the rate quoted. However, when I called them they told me I wasn't being charged. Hence, my comment "we'll see".

Trading Closed-End Funds - An Update

Yep. I've maintained myself that a portion of the discount on a closed end fund represents the discounted value of the expenses.

Crude Reality: Big Oil's Purposely Restricting Supply

America will do what makes economic sense. The last thing we need is the government to try to manage the economy and the energy problem. When they do that we end up with things like CAFE requirements, ethanol subsidies, and ethanol tariffs. It doesn't work in Cuba or Venezuela and it didn't work in the Soviet Union.

Is Natural Gas Down for the Count?

Looks like 2008traveler answered my question as I was asking it. However, natural gas ultimately should be exported to higher cost areas and even domestically it can be substituted for oil - maybe not in the short term but in the long term.

Is Natural Gas Down for the Count?

And what about the relationship between natural gas prices and oil? At some point natural gas starts to substitute for oil.

Just How Terrible Is Housing as an Asset Class? Roubini Weighs In

The idea that a home is a great investment is one of these myths propagated by the government and the real estate industry. The government has a vested interest in people owning homes because people who own homes don't launch a revolution against the government. In case you are interested I did a post a while back on housing prices in Chicago (where I live) and what has really happened with them. It's just not a great investment. The story is the same for other cities as well.
blog.lucidrealty.com/2.../

Historic Financial Collapse Underway?

I completely agree with everything you say. What I don't understand is why the GSE's stock is going up right now. I've been buying puts.

Another Macroshares Oil Arbitrage Opportunity

Well, I thought about this and decided it was absolutely OK. First, I'm disclosing my position. That puts everyone on notice that I might have something to gain from the article and, if they don't trust me, I could be simply pumping. The very fact that Seeking Alpha asks for disclosure indicates that they anticipate people will write about positions they hold. Frankly, I'm turned off when I read someone's analysis and they DON'T have a position. Like...why don't they put their money where their mouth is. Second, I think it has less credibility to write about something after the fact. I could simply make up a bunch of trades with the benefit of hindsight and look brilliant. Third, I'm looking to share the information so that others can profit too.

Another Macroshares Oil Arbitrage Opportunity

I just closed out the trade after only 6 days and pocketed $3,665:
www.investingminds.com...

The Gold-Oil Ratio Approaches All-time Lows

While interesting, this doesn't prove anything other than that the price of oil has gone up faster than the price of gold. This merely reflects that fact that the demand for oil has gone up faster than the demand for gold relative to the supplies. There is no reason to assume that the ratio should remain constant.

Oil Manipulations Exposed

If you want to get at the truth here you need to read T Stephens comments. They are much more intelligent than the main article (despite being written while he was on a phone call). Philip Davis engages in an awful lot of hysteria and shell games in his discussion. Manipulation of the natural gas and electricity markets are irrelevant to this discussion. His explanation of how prices are set is wrong, as T Stephens points out. And I haven't seen any of the Chicken Littles explain how speculators can affect the spot prices without taking physical delivery. Blaming this on speculation is a witch hunt.

Economics of Oil Futures Trading, Part I

The Michael Greenberger report is pretty long so I skimmed through it. Looks like he makes a bunch of unsubstantiated claims that manipulation is occurring and he references other's claims but I'm not hearing anyone explain the mechanism by which speculators impact the spot price of oil without taking delivery.

Economics of Oil Futures Trading, Part I

Mark Perry is absolutely right. The bottom line is that unless speculators are taking physical delivery they can't impact the spot price. Seems pretty obvious to me. I make the case here:
www.investingminds.com...

Oil Prices and the "Bigger Fool" Theory

The speculation story makes no sense: www.investingminds.com...

Furthermore, you say " Our long-term oil forecast looking out 20 years is [for crude] to fall back to $75 a barrel, or some lower number.

This sentence perfectly states why I think that current oil prices are now reflecting a bubble, or now even a bigger-fool type of market."

There is not a necessary connection between the two. You can believe that oil today should be $135 and will be much lower in the future. It all depends upon your view of supply and demand over time. Oil is highly inelastic in the short run but very elastic in the long run.