Gary Lucido

Does Market Timing Actually Work?

The very point of the article is that analyses like "missing the best days" are in fact flawed and that it is rational to adjust one's asset allocation based upon valuations.

The Markets Have Spoken: They Say 'Bear'

Well, I don't buy all the "cycle" arguments but I do agree with the basic premise that we are in a bear market. It should be no surprise that the market is falling and you should be prepared for it to fall further. There is a rather compelling case made by Robert Shiller, and supported by some really interesting data, that the market is tremendously overvalued. On a trailing earnings basis the P/E of the market doesn't look that bad but we have been in an earnings bubble. So it's a lot worse than people think.

I summarize some of the arguments in an article here:
www.investingminds.com.../
which makes the case for market timing. Though I'm not a market timer in the sense of moving 100% in and out of the market I do think it makes sense to modify your asset allocation based upon valuation.