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Gary Millichip's  Instablog

Gary Millichip arrived in the United States in 1999 from South Africa via London where he worked for a couple of years. Gary is a South African CPA and works in the reinsurance industry. He is a graduate of the University of KwaZulu Natal - Durban and Unisa.
  • 20% Pullback Coming

    Click here to access the latest S&P reported numbers. As of 10/22/2009, 190 companies representing 50.9% of the S&P market value had reported. Filtering the data and excluding financials whose numbers are manipulated and government assisted, only 40 issues as indicated below have year-on-year increases in revenue:

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    Tags: SPY
    Oct 27 11:42 am | Link | Comment!
  • Three New Value Stocks for the Buy & Hold Investor

    I am as amazed as anyone else at how quickly the stock market has rebounded and attribute this to the fact that people are relieved that the economy is not facing Armageddon, but rather a recession. This of course reinforces why you should keep at least partial positions in the market at any point in time, otherwise you miss out on the recovery in the stock market which typically occurs prior to the recovery in the economy. With this is mind, I believe the Buy & Hold (B&H) strategy is still the way to go for the individual investor, albeit with a loss mitigation strategy to minimize the downside risk. Here are a couple of reasons why:

     

    -         “If the average investor abandons "buy & hold" as a long-term strategy, he/she will find themselves competing with market insiders who have access to much more timely information and are much more experienced at trading on a short term basis. For most investors who've got day jobs and lives outside of monitoring their portfolio 24/7, competing with these pros will be an unmitigated disaster.” (http://www.fundalarm.com/wwwboard/messages/249027.html), &

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    Tags: KFT, LOW, BMY
    Sep 22 11:18 am | Link | Comment!
  • Decreasing Revenue Indicates the Worst is Yet to Come - Update

    This is a follow up to my post on April 23rd and highlights just how bad things have actually become. Below are the latest S&P 500 reported earnings as of the close of business on 5/06/09 (http://www2.standardan...):

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    Tags: SPY
    May 11 11:00 am | Link | Comment!
  • Decreasing Revenue Indicates the Worst is Yet to Come

    Below are the latest S&P 500 reported earnings as of the close of business on 4/21/09 (http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS). Double click to access:

     

    STANDARD & POOR'S INDEX SERVICES      
    S&P 500 Q1, 2009 EarningsAlert      
    108 reported issues representing 29.7% of the S&P 500 market value   
    Operating estimates are from S&P Analytical Services.  Actual operating, as reported and sales are from S&P Compustat. 
    Issue level data includes restatements      
              
      AS PRIOR% CHG FROMSALESPRIOR YR% CHG FROM  
    TICKERCOMPANYREPORTEDYEARPRIOR YEAR$ MIL$ MILPRIOR YEARPRICESECTOR
    ABTAbbott Laboratories0.920.6053.336718.006765.60-0.7044.37Health Care
    ADBEAdobe Systems0.300.38-21.05786.39890.45-11.6923.75Information Technology
    AMDAdvanced Micro Dev-0.66-0.51-29.411177.001456.00-19.163.36Information Technology
    AKSAK Steel Holding-0.670.90-174.44922.201791.40-48.5211.66Materials
    AAAlcoa Inc-0.590.37-259.464147.007375.00-43.778.69Materials
    ALTRAltera Corp0.150.27-44.44264.60336.07-21.2717.53Information Technology
    AMPAmeriprise Financial0.580.82-29.271710.002047.00-16.4624.20Financials
    APHAmphenol Corp'A'0.430.54-20.37660.01770.71-14.3631.44Information Technology
    APOLApollo Group'A'0.77-0.19505.26876.13693.6426.3161.15Consumer Discretionary
    AZOAutoZone Inc2.031.6721.561447.881339.248.11165.09Consumer Discretionary
    BACBank of America0.440.2391.3045417.0028871.0057.318.76Financials
    BKBank of New York Mellon0.280.65-56.923136.004634.00-32.3327.98Financials
    BAXBaxter Intl0.830.6723.882824.002877.00-1.8450.44Health Care
    BBTBB&T Corp0.480.78-38.462710.002666.001.6522.12Financials
    BBBYBed Bath & Beyond0.550.66-16.671923.271933.19-0.5130.95Consumer Discretionary
    BBYBest Buy1.351.71-21.0514724.0013418.009.7339.98Consumer Discretionary
    BIIBBiogen Idec0.840.5455.561036.48942.1910.0147.55Health Care
    BJSBJ Services0.150.43-65.121054.611283.20-17.8113.26Energy
    BSXBoston Scientific-0.010.21-104.762010.002046.00-1.768.45Health Care
    BRCMBroadcom Corp'A'-0.190.14-235.71853.441032.21-17.3220.52Information Technology
    CHRWC.H. Robinson Worldwide0.500.500.001688.001985.21-14.9749.09Industrials
    COFCapital One Financial-0.391.70-122.943738.564775.00-21.7115.05Financials
    CCLCarnival Corp0.330.3010.002864.003152.00-9.1425.57Consumer Discretionary
    CATCaterpillar Inc-0.191.45-113.109225.0011796.00-21.8031.39Industrials
    CTASCintas Corp0.470.53-11.32908.64975.95-6.9026.21Industrials
    CCitigroup Inc-0.18-1.0182.1832500.0028193.0015.283.24Financials
    COHCoach Inc0.360.46-21.74739.94744.52-0.6220.92Consumer Discretionary
    KOCoca-Cola Co0.580.64-9.387169.007379.00-2.8543.09Consumer Staples
    CMAComerica Inc-0.160.73-121.92762.001100.00-30.7321.64Financials
    CAGConAgra Foods0.430.3426.473134.702955.306.0717.97Consumer Staples
    STZConstellation Brands'A'-1.86-3.8651.81735.10884.40-16.8811.47Consumer Staples
    COSTCostco Wholesale0.550.74-25.6816843.0016959.89-0.6946.46Consumer Staples
    CSXCSX Corp0.620.85-27.062247.002713.00-17.1829.22Industrials
    DRIDarden Restaurants0.780.80-2.501798.801811.40-0.7039.12Consumer Discretionary
    DFSDiscover Financial Svcs0.250.50-50.001530.911638.35-6.568.23Financials
    DDduPont(E.I.)deNemours0.541.31-58.786871.008835.00-22.2328.06Materials
    ETNEaton Corp-0.301.62-118.522813.003496.00-19.5441.54Industrials
    FDOFamily Dollar Stores0.600.4533.331992.261832.618.7133.11Consumer Discretionary
    FASTFastenal Co0.330.46-28.26489.35566.21-13.5735.22Industrials
    FDXFedEx Corp0.311.26-75.408137.009437.00-13.7852.53Industrials
    FHNFirst Horizon Natl-0.390.06-750.00677.96925.52-26.7511.71Financials
    FRXForest Labs0.310.55-43.64951.93958.81-0.7221.57Health Care
    GCIGannett Co0.340.84-59.521378.481676.87-17.793.09Consumer Discretionary
    GEGenl Electric0.260.44-40.9137983.0041698.00-8.9111.70Industrials
    GISGenl Mills0.851.23-30.893537.403405.603.8750.65Consumer Staples
    GPCGenuine Parts0.560.75-25.332444.502739.47-10.7735.00Consumer Discretionary
    GILDGilead Sciences0.630.5123.531530.461258.1521.6443.73Health Care
    GSGoldman Sachs Group3.393.234.9511880.0018629.00-36.23120.36Financials
    GOOGGoogle Inc'A'4.494.128.985508.995186.046.23381.47Information Technology
    GWWGrainger (W.W.)1.251.43-12.591465.251661.05-11.7977.72Industrials
    HALHalliburton Co0.420.64-34.383907.004029.00-3.0319.96Energy
    HOGHarley-Davidson0.500.79-36.711395.321399.60-0.3118.20Consumer Discretionary
    HASHasbro Inc0.140.25-44.00621.34704.22-11.7726.46Consumer Discretionary
    HCBKHudson City Bancorp0.260.1844.44725.60615.5117.8912.53Financials
    HBANHuntington Bancshares-6.790.35-2040.00809.06989.16-18.213.45Financials
    ITWIllinois Tool Works-0.060.57-110.532914.274139.41-29.6031.76Industrials
    INTCIntel Corp0.110.25-56.007145.009673.00-26.1315.36Information Technology
    IBMIntl Bus. Machines1.701.653.0321711.0024502.00-11.39102.31Information Technology
    ISRGIntuitive Surgical0.721.12-35.71188.37188.190.10128.96Health Care
    JBLJabil Circuit-4.19-0.12-3391.672887.403058.61-5.607.18Information Technology
    JNJJohnson & Johnson1.261.260.0015026.0016194.00-7.2152.46Health Care
    JCIJohnson Controls-0.330.48-168.756315.009406.00-32.8617.52Consumer Discretionary
    JPMJPMorgan Chase & Co0.400.68-41.1829584.0026763.0010.5432.53Financials
    KBHKB HOME-0.75-3.4778.39307.36794.22-61.3017.13Consumer Discretionary
    KEYKeyCorp-1.090.54-301.851524.001882.00-19.027.05Financials
    LENLennar Corp'A'-0.98-0.56-75.00593.061062.91-44.208.02Consumer Discretionary
    LXKLexmark Intl'A'0.751.07-29.91944.101175.10-19.6617.38Information Technology
    LLYLilly (Eli)1.200.9723.715047.004807.604.9833.34Health Care
    LLTCLinear Technology Corp0.250.44-43.18200.93297.87-32.5421.74Information Technology
    LMTLockheed Martin1.681.75-4.0010373.009983.003.9176.04Industrials
    MTBM&T Bank0.491.82-73.08886.851196.83-25.9051.75Financials
    MATMattel, Inc-0.14-0.13-7.69785.60919.30-14.5414.69Consumer Discretionary
    MKCMcCormick & Co0.440.3912.82718.50723.95-0.7528.91Consumer Staples
    MRKMerck & Co0.671.52-55.925385.205822.10-7.5023.54Health Care
    MUMicron Technology-0.97-1.013.96993.001359.00-26.934.70Information Technology
    MOLXMolex Inc-0.340.28-221.43505.54822.28-38.5216.38Information Technology
    MONMonsanto Co1.972.00-1.504035.003727.008.2679.50Materials
    NBRNabors Indus0.440.81-45.681198.051299.86-7.8314.59Energy
    NSMNatl Semiconductor0.090.28-67.86292.40453.40-35.5111.69Information Technology
    NYTNew York Times'A'-0.520.000.00609.02747.86-18.574.94Consumer Discretionary
    NKENIKE, Inc'B'0.500.92-45.654440.804544.40-2.2853.27Consumer Discretionary
    NSCNorfolk Southern0.470.76-38.161943.002500.00-22.2837.37Industrials
    NTRSNorthern Trust0.611.71-64.331010.301557.00-35.1156.17Financials
    ORCLOracle Corp0.260.260.005453.005349.001.9419.53Information Technology
    PHParker-Hannifin0.331.49-77.852344.713182.54-26.3339.73Industrials
    PAYXPaychex Inc0.360.39-7.69528.58532.17-0.6727.31Information Technology
    BTUPeabody Energy0.500.2878.571460.101266.1015.3225.09Energy
    PBCTPeople's United Financial0.080.0560.00267.40337.20-20.7016.58Financials
    PEPPepsiCo Inc0.720.702.868263.008333.00-0.8449.35Consumer Staples
    PPGPPG Indus-0.680.61-211.482783.003962.00-29.7643.64Materials
    PGRProgressive Corp,Ohio0.350.350.003465.603584.40-3.3116.19Financials
    DGXQuest Diagnostics0.890.7223.611808.001784.641.3153.43Health Care
    RFRegions Financial0.040.48-91.672122.002690.95-21.146.14Financials
    SNDKSanDisk Corp-0.920.08-1250.00659.47849.97-22.4113.71Information Technology
    SGPSchering-Plough0.460.17170.594393.004657.00-5.6722.11Health Care
    SCHWSchwab(Charles)Corp0.190.26-26.921125.001398.00-19.5317.85Financials
    SHWSherwin-Williams0.320.64-50.001550.681781.68-12.9756.77Consumer Discretionary
    LUVSouthwest Airlines-0.120.05-340.002357.002530.00-6.847.53Industrials
    STTState Street Corp1.021.35-24.442176.003240.00-32.8436.15Financials
    SYKStryker Corp0.710.701.431601.301634.40-2.0337.42Health Care
    TXNTexas Instruments0.010.49-97.962086.003272.00-36.2517.11Information Technology
    USBU.S. Bancorp0.240.62-61.294655.005158.00-9.7519.27Financials
    UTXUnited Technologies0.781.03-24.2712249.0013701.00-10.6047.99Industrials
    UNHUnitedHealth Group0.810.783.8522004.0020304.008.3722.80Health Care
    WAGWalgreen Co0.650.69-5.8016475.0015393.607.0330.62Consumer Staples
    WUWestern Union0.320.2718.521201.201265.90-5.1116.18Information Technology
    YHOOYahoo Inc0.080.37-78.381580.041817.60-13.0714.38Information Technology
    ZIONZions Bancorp-7.290.98-843.88528.14901.12-41.3910.94Financials

    Here is what the Howard Silverblatt, the S&P Senior Index Analyst has to say about reported earnings so far:  

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    Tags: SPY
    Apr 23 11:16 am | Link | Comment!
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