Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Gary Tanashian  

View Gary Tanashian's Articles BY TICKER:
  • Gold: Value, Re-Propositioned
    Fri, Feb. 20 GLD 9 Comments

    Summary

    • For years we have maintained that a sound orientation towards gold is one of value, not price.
    • Gold is not a return instrument, it is insurance against the 'risk' side of the 'return' equation.
    • Confusing the two concepts has gotten many people into trouble with gold, as evidenced by the bear market's perceptions, which are opposite those of the previous bull.
  • The Financialized Economy
    Tue, Feb. 10 SPY, DIA, QQQ 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Manufacturing was an early economic leader as ISM began to firm in 2013.
    • Recent ISM and other manufacturing data have shown some back sliding, in line with our expectations, due to persistent strength in the USD.
    • But turning the vast services economy is like turning a battleship; i.e. there could be a significant lag between a manufacturing downturn and a general economic downturn.
  • Fed Rate Hikes And The Stock Market
    Fri, Jan. 30 DIA, QQQ, SPY 17 Comments

    Summary

    • It doesn't matter when the Fed raises interest rates.
    • ...until it DOES matter.
    • 'Quant' analysis cannot account for the policy distortions introduced post-2008.
  • Economy: The Canary Is Alive And Well
    Tue, Jan. 27 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Exactly two years ago, we used gathering strength in the Semiconductor Equipment industry to gain a heads up on coming US economic strength.
    • Today, that Canary is still chirping, per the most recent Book-to-Bill ratio (b2b) for December.
    • We do however wonder if there is a year-end correlation between Semi equipment and high-end machine tools, which you can almost set your watch by each December.
    • The machine tool phenomenon is not economy related. The Semi b2b had been down trending but is on a year-end bump. Upcoming data will be critical to the economy.
  • Bottom-Line Thoughts On The Gold Sector
    Wed, Jan. 21 GLD, IAU, SGOL 4 Comments

    Summary

    • A long-term phase of global economic contraction remains intact.
    • Gold mining is counter-cyclical, which finally gives the sector a positive risk-vs.-reward proposition against the broad U.S. stock market.
    • Volatility will ensue, understand the dynamics in play. The bottom line below gives some thoughts and perspective.
  • Welcome, Baby 2015
    Fri, Jan. 2 GLD, SPY, PSI 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Monetary policy in 2011 changed macro trends.
    • 2015 appears to have potential for a culmination of those trends as QE fades and policy pressure mounts.
    • The highest confidence prediction during the New Year's traditional cavalcade of forecasts? 'Baby 2015' is going to be very different from 'Old Man 2014'.
  • Deflation Or Inflation?
    Dec. 16, 2014 RINF, INFL, UINF 4 Comments

    Summary

    • 6 years ago the current inflationary operation was initiated.
    • There are many similarities between today's building deflationary pressures and those that manifested in 2008.
    • But the dynamics have changed in that inflation has gone global, and so too has the deflationary response. It has also slowed way down compared to the 2008 event.
  • Economy Post-Jobs Report: Real Or Memorex?
    Dec. 10, 2014 1 Comment

    Summary

    • We had extrapolated coming economic strength two years ago, based on a strengthening canary in a coal mine: the semiconductor equipment sector's rising book-to-bill (b2b) ratio.
    • The progression was semis (b2b) --> manufacturing (ISM) --> general economy and jobs.
    • Going forward, the same indicators will guide us - perhaps before long, in a different direction - as the U.S. economy has been built on increasing debt.
    • The difference is that the current cycle is fueled by government debt as opposed to the commercial credit bubble that fueled the previous up cycle.
  • Semiconductor Equipment Book-To-Bill Ratio Moderating
    Nov. 25, 2014 SOXL, USD, SMH Comment!

    Summary

    • In January of 2013 we used the ramp up in the semi capital equipment sector as a gauge for coming strength in US manufacturing, "jobs" and the economy.
    • Our informal "channel checks" since have remained firm.
    • A negative Book-to-Bill ratio would have negative economic implications (in line with our view that a strong USD would eventually wear away at US manufacturing and exports.
  • Goldzilla
    Nov. 19, 2014 GLD, IAU, SGOL 20 Comments

    Summary

    • A bear market in gold is still in force from 2011.
    • Monetary policy, while unsustainable and promoting inequity, is working for now.
    • Goldzilla will rise up one day to tear it all down.
    • But you need to be patient and intact when the time comes for macro change.
  • Gold Bug Psychology Must Be Neutered
    Nov. 8, 2014 GLD 33 Comments

    Summary

    • A bounce is likely amid over-bearish sentiment.
    • Though the case for gold as insurance against a leveraged out of control system has never been better, market realities dictate the interim phases.
    • The active phase since gold's previous bull market ended in 2011 has been risk 'ON' amid a speculative atmosphere promoted by global policy making.
    • Gold will, as they say, have its time. But please check your bias and assumptions at the door in the interim.
  • A Simple View Of Gold
    Oct. 9, 2014 GLD 5 Comments

    Summary

    • The monthly technicals are bearish.
    • 'Indian Wedding Season' and 'China Demand' are the products of lazy analysis and are not reasons to be bullish on gold.
    • Gold will turn when confidence in policy making turns (our best guess is at the 1000 +/- support shelf that marked the bottom in confidence in 2008).
    • In the meantime, a bounce in the gold sector is possible.
  • Currencies And Gold: The Big Picture
    Jul. 18, 2014 GLD, IAU, INR 6 Comments

    Summary

    • USD and Yen would likely rise in a liquidity crisis.
    • Swiss Franc and Indian Rupee have been the best currencies for the longer term.
    • Commodity currencies (Canada and Aussie) are bearish.
    • Gold, which provides no function other than monetary value retention, bides its time.
  • U.S. Stock Market Update
    Jul. 8, 2014 SPY, QQQ, DIA 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Option 1: Market takes a correction in July to relieve over bought, over loved status. This is potentially a healthy pause to refresh before new highs.
    • Option 2: Market channel bursts upward and momentum fuels an upside blow off that would be terminal to the bull, a la 'Silver 2011'.
    • We lean toward Option 1 for now.
  • Gold's Value Is Not About Currency Collapse
    Jun. 27, 2014 GLD, IAU, SGOL 24 Comments

    Summary

    • Gold vs. commodities (i.e. gold's "real" price) is in a major secular bull market.
    • Gold has been kicked to the curb amid major confidence in policy making and resultant asset market increases.
    • Only when confidence in policy and the targeted asset bubbles deflate will the best case for gold come to the fore.
    • The US dollar would initially benefit if asset markets were to liquidate.
  • ZIRP Gains More Attention
    Jun. 12, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Mainstream economist highlights what we have been saying for well over a year.
    • That is that ZIRP is destructive, not constructive.
    • The "bubble" has been in policy.
  • U.S. Treasury Bonds, Gold And The Stock Market
    Jun. 2, 2014 TLT 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Our monthly "Continuum" chart anticipated a misstep for the "Great Rotation" crowd.
    • Yields are now approaching support, and we are no longer bullish on T bonds.
    • Beyond nominal bond considerations, the T bond market is key to in-depth macro analysis.
  • Gold, Silver And The Macro
    May. 28, 2014 GLD, SLV 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Gold's daily charts are bearish.
    • Silver's daily charts are bearish.
    • A potential bigger picture bottoming stance is still in play.
    • Meanwhile, gold and silver bugs can use the relationship between the metals in macro analysis.
  • Stock Market: When Bad Is Good And Good Is Bad
    May. 26, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 4 Comments

    Summary

    • The US stock market may accelerate higher in the short term.
    • The US stock market may take a hard correction in 2014 to test the big picture breakouts.
    • The more bearish long-term scenario is #1 above.
  • Giving Bears Pause
    May. 20, 2014 SPY, IYT, DIA 3 Comments

    Summary

    • 2014 has been bearish for much of the market, outside of the Dow, S&P 500 and Transports.
    • Various indicators beneath the surface (like the BKX-SPX ratio) are flashing bearish signals.
    • Yet the state of the Semiconductor index and a mainstream media in bear mode are among the bullish caveats.
  • ZIRP Era In Pictures
    May. 11, 2014 SPY, HYG, QQQ 7 Comments

    Summary

    • ZIRP is 5+ years in the running.
    • ZIRP has severely punished savers.
    • ZIRP has rewarded speculative asset owners.
  • Pigs No Longer Fly; What Are The Implications?
    Apr. 30, 2014 SPY, IEF, TLT 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Interest rates indicated to continue declining.
    • Gold bottom would be indicated as confidence erodes.
    • Economic deceleration would be indicated by a declining BKX-SPX ratio.
  • Commitments Of Traders: Gold, Silver, CRB And T-Notes
    Apr. 22, 2014 GLD, SHY, SLV 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Gold and Silver CoT shows room to move lower prior to a bottom.
    • CRB CoT is bearish from a contrarian view.
    • 2 year T Note CoT implies a coming rise in yield curves.
  • Gold Contrary Indicators
    Apr. 2, 2014 GLD 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Gold is relevant to monetary events.
    • Inflammatory analysis such as the recent Ukraine hype should be tuned out.
    • Gauging sentiment in gold is a reliable indicator to bull and bear phases.
  • Is The Yield Curve Really Flattening?
    Mar. 26, 2014 PLW, GOVT, TRSY 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The curve is flattening when measuring long-term yields to shorter term (2, 3 and 5 year).
    • The curve is elevated along all durations when measured against the Fed Funds Rate (ZIRP).
    • The system has an ongoing distortion built in by this dynamic.
  • Gold's Macro Fundamentals
    Mar. 26, 2014 GLD 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Tune out "China's demand drop".
    • Tune out Ukraine style crisis hedge talk.
    • Interest rate spreads are among the most important macro fundamentals for gold.
  • ZIRP Up Next?
    Mar. 21, 2014 SPY, DIA, QQQ 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Zero Interest Rate Policy has been ongoing for 5+ years.
    • S&P 500 is running alone this time with ZIRP pinning T Bill yields near zero.
    • An inflationary or deflationary case can be made from this distortion.
  • 3-D Printing: No Barrier To Future Losses For Investors
    Feb. 25, 2014 SSYS, XONE, DDD 19 Comments
  • Precious Metals Grind Out A New Trend
    Feb. 14, 2014 GLTR, DBP, WITE 12 Comments
  • Gold Mining Is Counter Cyclical
    Feb. 4, 2014 GDX, GDXJ 3 Comments
  • Precious Metals: Risk Management To Opportunity
    Jan. 8, 2014 GLD, IAU, PHYS 1 Comment
  • To Taper Or Not To Taper? It Is A Double Edged Sword For The Fed
    Dec. 18, 2013 DIA, SPY, QQQ 2 Comments