Seeking Alpha

Gary Tanashian

 
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  • A Simple View Of Gold
    Thu, Oct. 9 GLD 5 Comments

    Summary

    • The monthly technicals are bearish.
    • 'Indian Wedding Season' and 'China Demand' are the products of lazy analysis and are not reasons to be bullish on gold.
    • Gold will turn when confidence in policy making turns (our best guess is at the 1000 +/- support shelf that marked the bottom in confidence in 2008).
    • In the meantime, a bounce in the gold sector is possible.
  • Currencies And Gold: The Big Picture
    Fri, Jul. 18 GLD, IAU, INR 6 Comments

    Summary

    • USD and Yen would likely rise in a liquidity crisis.
    • Swiss Franc and Indian Rupee have been the best currencies for the longer term.
    • Commodity currencies (Canada and Aussie) are bearish.
    • Gold, which provides no function other than monetary value retention, bides its time.
  • U.S. Stock Market Update
    Tue, Jul. 8 SPY, QQQ, DIA 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Option 1: Market takes a correction in July to relieve over bought, over loved status. This is potentially a healthy pause to refresh before new highs.
    • Option 2: Market channel bursts upward and momentum fuels an upside blow off that would be terminal to the bull, a la 'Silver 2011'.
    • We lean toward Option 1 for now.
  • Gold's Value Is Not About Currency Collapse
    Fri, Jun. 27 GLD, IAU, SGOL 24 Comments

    Summary

    • Gold vs. commodities (i.e. gold's "real" price) is in a major secular bull market.
    • Gold has been kicked to the curb amid major confidence in policy making and resultant asset market increases.
    • Only when confidence in policy and the targeted asset bubbles deflate will the best case for gold come to the fore.
    • The US dollar would initially benefit if asset markets were to liquidate.
  • ZIRP Gains More Attention
    Thu, Jun. 12 DIA, SPY, QQQ 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Mainstream economist highlights what we have been saying for well over a year.
    • That is that ZIRP is destructive, not constructive.
    • The "bubble" has been in policy.
  • U.S. Treasury Bonds, Gold And The Stock Market
    Mon, Jun. 2 TLT 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Our monthly "Continuum" chart anticipated a misstep for the "Great Rotation" crowd.
    • Yields are now approaching support, and we are no longer bullish on T bonds.
    • Beyond nominal bond considerations, the T bond market is key to in-depth macro analysis.
  • Gold, Silver And The Macro
    Wed, May. 28 GLD, SLV 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Gold's daily charts are bearish.
    • Silver's daily charts are bearish.
    • A potential bigger picture bottoming stance is still in play.
    • Meanwhile, gold and silver bugs can use the relationship between the metals in macro analysis.
  • Stock Market: When Bad Is Good And Good Is Bad
    Mon, May. 26 DIA, SPY, QQQ 4 Comments

    Summary

    • The US stock market may accelerate higher in the short term.
    • The US stock market may take a hard correction in 2014 to test the big picture breakouts.
    • The more bearish long-term scenario is #1 above.
  • Giving Bears Pause
    Tue, May. 20 SPY, IYT, DIA 3 Comments

    Summary

    • 2014 has been bearish for much of the market, outside of the Dow, S&P 500 and Transports.
    • Various indicators beneath the surface (like the BKX-SPX ratio) are flashing bearish signals.
    • Yet the state of the Semiconductor index and a mainstream media in bear mode are among the bullish caveats.
  • ZIRP Era In Pictures
    Sun, May. 11 SPY, HYG, QQQ 7 Comments

    Summary

    • ZIRP is 5+ years in the running.
    • ZIRP has severely punished savers.
    • ZIRP has rewarded speculative asset owners.
  • Pigs No Longer Fly; What Are The Implications?
    Wed, Apr. 30 SPY, IEF, TLT 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Interest rates indicated to continue declining.
    • Gold bottom would be indicated as confidence erodes.
    • Economic deceleration would be indicated by a declining BKX-SPX ratio.
  • Commitments Of Traders: Gold, Silver, CRB And T-Notes
    Tue, Apr. 22 GLD, SHY, SLV 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Gold and Silver CoT shows room to move lower prior to a bottom.
    • CRB CoT is bearish from a contrarian view.
    • 2 year T Note CoT implies a coming rise in yield curves.
  • Gold Contrary Indicators
    Wed, Apr. 2 GLD 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Gold is relevant to monetary events.
    • Inflammatory analysis such as the recent Ukraine hype should be tuned out.
    • Gauging sentiment in gold is a reliable indicator to bull and bear phases.
  • Is The Yield Curve Really Flattening?
    Wed, Mar. 26 PLW, GOVT, TRSY 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The curve is flattening when measuring long-term yields to shorter term (2, 3 and 5 year).
    • The curve is elevated along all durations when measured against the Fed Funds Rate (ZIRP).
    • The system has an ongoing distortion built in by this dynamic.
  • Gold's Macro Fundamentals
    Wed, Mar. 26 GLD 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Tune out "China's demand drop".
    • Tune out Ukraine style crisis hedge talk.
    • Interest rate spreads are among the most important macro fundamentals for gold.
  • ZIRP Up Next?
    Fri, Mar. 21 SPY, DIA, QQQ 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Zero Interest Rate Policy has been ongoing for 5+ years.
    • S&P 500 is running alone this time with ZIRP pinning T Bill yields near zero.
    • An inflationary or deflationary case can be made from this distortion.
  • 3-D Printing: No Barrier To Future Losses For Investors
    Tue, Feb. 25 SSYS, XONE, DDD 19 Comments
  • Precious Metals Grind Out A New Trend
    Fri, Feb. 14 GLTR, DBP, WITE 12 Comments
  • Gold Mining Is Counter Cyclical
    Tue, Feb. 4 GDX, GDXJ 3 Comments
  • Precious Metals: Risk Management To Opportunity
    Wed, Jan. 8 GLD, IAU, PHYS 1 Comment
  • To Taper Or Not To Taper? It Is A Double Edged Sword For The Fed
    Dec. 18, 2013 DIA, SPY, QQQ 2 Comments
  • Janet Yellen Nails It
    Nov. 19, 2013 SPY, QQQ, SH 5 Comments
  • '3 Ps' Supporting Massive Market Speculation
    Nov. 9, 2013 SPY, QQQ, SH 5 Comments
  • A Cyclical 'Mini-Me' To A Big Secular Event
    Oct. 30, 2013 GLD, SPY, SH 4 Comments
  • Insurance For A 'Wonderland' Market
    Oct. 17, 2013 SPY, GLD 2 Comments
  • Gold Fixation
    Oct. 11, 2013 GLD 11 Comments
  • The Outer Limits Of Monetary Policy
    Oct. 2, 2013 3 Comments
  • As The Debt Ceiling Kabuki Dance Starts Anew ...
    Sep. 27, 2013 2 Comments
  • Gold: 'Taper This'
    Sep. 17, 2013 GLD, IAU, SGOL 54 Comments
  • China, U.S. And Inflation
    Sep. 10, 2013 FXI, GXC, PGJ 8 Comments
  • ISM, Prices And Gold Vs. Commodities
    Sep. 6, 2013 GLD, IAU, DBC Comment!
  • Macro Markets Shrug Off Policy Makers, Ready For A Pivot
    Aug. 26, 2013 SPY, TLT, TLO 2 Comments