Gary Tanashian

Jaguar Mining Can Easily Go Lower

Thank you for being courteous despite the differences. JAG has long been valued on management projections that have fallen short. The LatAm based analyst who first made me aware of the stock, has repeatedly made this point. When I saw it at 2 bucks, it was a no brainer, because it is a good company with great assets and growth profile.

The chart tells me that it is coming down to one of the green lines I drew on there. But if there is a downside event in the sector, don't rule out the 6 area.

Jaguar Mining Can Easily Go Lower

Well, it was a funny article with my original title: Investors - A Tasty Snack.

The focus was not to be on the 'can go much lower' part. But that's up to SA's editors to decide. That said, some bullishness I see in these responses tells me I can get JAG back well lower, because the entire sector is going with a stock market that is likely in its latter stages for this move.

When I was buying JAG at 2 bucks, the component of its tricky management was way more than discounted. Now? Not so much.

Gold Retains Its Value, as Usual

LOL Slvizgold, I think you and I are seeing things through the same lens. Good going!


On Aug 21 06:05 PM Slvrizgold wrote:

> Disclosure: long.... REALLY LONG. LMAO me too buddy. But
> in fact I am still holding a bunch of dry powder Federal Reserve
> Toliet Paper Notes (similar to Weimar Republic Wood Stove Notes)
> just in case I am wrong hahaha. Grandaddy was smart. REAL SMART.
> And I own a large vacation home that I would gladly flip in a heartbeat
> to be able to buy gold again for $700 and silver $9. But I doubt
> it LOL
>
> I'll pat the back of the reflex rally buyers, I made some coin too
> diligently buying companies that what seemed to be way too cheap
> prices, but at this point I think someone who prefers buying the
> SP for 1000 over gold $950 and silver 14 is just a plain "maroon"
> as Bugs Bunny used to say.

Want to short so bad I can taste it...

Always a wise idea. I shorted China the other day via FXP and not yet decided whether or not to take profit or consider it a gentle scale in to a more major short stance. I am long the gold miners and find that being short something that I am relatively bearish on helps.

Attn: NFTRH Subscribers (and blog readers) - Risk

I had a more bullish set up going where the market would have declined this summer (spx 800 or so) and then mounted a major rally thru the fall off of a healthy inverted H&S bottom. Didn't happen. What we got is some ill formed H&S's right into blow off mode, which I think makes your theory possible.

M3's False Signal: Deflation Scare Doesn't Mean Deflation

That would be my thesis. Watch the dollar. Uncle Buck had better get his act together or the deflation scare scenario will be kaput.


On Jul 21 09:22 AM Mayer Amschel Rothschild wrote:

> Didn't we already have the deflation scare? I guess we need another
> one to complete the third leg of the "W".

'Hope 09' Continues to Live On

I am sorry but you are cherry picking. I do not tout stock picks. I was buying gold miners last year with HUI 150-175 and selling them as risk rose between HUI 360-400. Then buying back after the predictable decline recently. I understand you fancy yourself a market player and I am not going to micromanage the twists and turns with you. My portfolios are updated weekly in the newsletter.

How bullish were you in March?


On Jul 21 02:58 AM Freya wrote:

> Mr. Tanashian: I reviewed all of the Articles you published in Oct.
> 2008, there were no positions disclosed.
>
> And if the rest of your portfolio matches up to your Jan. 5th position
> statements of MSFT, CSCO, and TBT, Then the rest must be up over
> 200% too. Congratulations.

'Hope 09' Continues to Live On

My portfolio is up 140% since October and is well into new all time highs. My newsletter was aboard the rally while the media were still declaring the end of the world, and I have been in capital preservation mode since spring. You can skim one article and call me a bear or you can do a little work and see what really is. I have had targets on the SPX of 1010 and 1200 up until last week. Unfortunately, the bullish scenario you hope for was dealt a blow last week.


On Jul 20 10:54 AM Freya wrote:

> Hope 09?
>
> As long as there are Bears like you around, I look forward to my
> Target of 1100 on the S&P This year.
>
> Current Hype has Analysts Normalizing Earnings for 2010 and Beyond.
> This means that PE Ratio expectations will rise. It doesn't matter
> that those Earnings Never materialize, nor that the PE Ratios are
> ever realized. What will matter will be Analyst Upgrades going forward.
>
>
> The Cyclical Bull is underway, you have missed most of it.
> But, go ahead, keep looking for improvements in the Economy. Those
> might take years.

Micromanaging the Price of Gold

I for one do and always have. Which is exactly why I sleep tight through all the price gyration. Ho hum when it comes to the ancient relic of value.


On Jul 15 02:51 PM DONE_SONZ wrote:

> If charts were so reliable,then everyone would be rich.Trust fundamentals
> over charts.

Micromanaging the Price of Gold

That is a great observation diewur. But I think the idea that gold will grind and consolidate over the next few months meshes well with your theory. Perhaps even touching the rising trend line however briefly. This could be the mother of all consolidations and at whatever point it decides to terminate, the upside is going to be historic. There were consolidations before the last two impulses and this is a time of building pressure.

But then again, I don't micromanage the price of gold. :-)


On Jul 15 12:56 PM dieuwer wrote:

> For gold and silver I like to use a "seasonal" investment approach:
>
> if you look at the charts posted above, you will notice that gold,
> but more so silver, have an impulsive move UP at the end of the odd
> year ending during the first half of the next (even) year.
>
> Start of impulse: Jul 03, Jul 05, Jul 07; Tops: Jan 04, May 06, Mar
> 08.
>
> Therefore, I think the odds are very high we will see the start of
> an impulse NOW, with a top during the first half of 2010.

Gold Ratios - Time to Pay Attention

Sorry you feel that way Genesis. NFTRH41, just out yesterday looked at gold-spx, gold-oil, gold-industrial metals and gold-silver. Obviously what appears here cannot be anywhere near as comprehensive as the newsletter. NFTRH has been on the right side of markets (both bullish & bearish) since its inception in September, 2008. That is because I look exhaustively at these ratios and many other non-standard indicators.

The market gives so many valuable clues if we are just willing to look at them.


On Jul 11 04:49 PM Genesis wrote:

> What about Gold/USD? What about God/EUR, Gold/Dow, Gold/S&P,
> Gold/Oil, etc? That is fine to compare gold with the general commodities
> market, but I wouldn't consider it a comprehensive analysis, let
> alone a reason to put money into it at any given time.
>
> Also, it's strange that you refer to non-gold commodities to be "assets
> of hope." I consider wheat to be a food having intrinsic value moreso
> than a speculative bubble-type of investment. Silver (now historically
> undervalued against gold) and platinum are also included among those
> "assets of hope."
>
> Personally, I have better things to do with $288 than to pay for
> your market analysis.

Gold Ratios - Time to Pay Attention

That is pretty much what I am saying Andrew. Gold has been consolidating its gains off of the unsustainable upside of 2008. When gold outperforms, it is a sign of financial stress.


On Jul 11 01:59 PM Andrew Amrhein wrote:

> Please forgive my ignorance, I'm still a student. Are you saying
> that gold has sufficiently consolidated and will there for begin
> to make gains at the expense of the equity market?

Gold / Silver Ratio at Code Yellow

From my point of view, the GSR is most important as a macro indicator. In short, when gold is rising relative to silver, this implies a reduction of liquidity and growing risk aversion. Combine the gold-silver ratio with declining t-bill rates and you have more evidence. Then, take it further and see money supply measures like the M2 and MZM hiccuping and it is time for caution. HOWEVER, today is seeing the GSR get hammered and my potential low target for a retrace in the ratio is 62-64. Code yellow would then be full red at that point as far as risk/reward goes on the stock market. The implications for gold stocks are more complex and will be looked at going forward.

A Brief Look at Commodities: Oil, Copper

Hey, no harm no foul BxC. This is a tough racket and there is advice and analysis all over the internet. When the day comes that I am always right, then I will bristle at criticism. :-) Check out the site and let me know what you think.

A Brief Look at Commodities: Oil, Copper

Hi BxC, no I never joke about charts. The AROON was used for Copper, not oil. If you want to know about copper's MACD and RSI, they are supportive as well. As you can see on the chart for oil, the MACD and RSI are both supportive there as well. This is contrary to your ultrashort stance, so I understand your response. It's what makes a market I guess.

As for China stimulus, well, in the big picture I am likely as bearish as you are on most things. But consider this news out of China's central bank. Sure, it's all a pump, but markets need relief - including energy. This could be a trigger for both oil and copper. This is just out this morning:

"BEIJING (Reuters) – Chinese businesses are slightly less worried about the economic outlook and their prospects than they were three months ago, according to a quarterly survey by the central bank.
The survey of more than 5,500 firms showed that, while businesses saw the economy as being significantly worse in the first quarter than the final three months of 2008, their expectations about growth in the second quarter improved somewhat.

They also saw their own businesses improving in the April-June period, the People's Bank of China said on its website."

Regards.