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Gary Tanashian is proprietor of and Actionable, hype-free technical, macro economic and sentiment analysis is provided in the premium market report 'Notes From the Rabbit Hole' ( Complimentary analysis and commentary is available at the... More
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  • NFTRH 1 Year Ago, NFTRH62 Out Now
    Excerpted from NFTRH11, dated December 6, 2008:

    It's What Makes a Market

    ‘It’ being the disagreement between market participants.

    A professional trader who follows my blog emailed yesterday of his belief that there is another liquidation directly ahead for the markets and that while he looks to get long the gold miners at some point, he would not touch them right now.

    A subscriber implores that if gold has gone parabolic against oil, industrial metals and human hopes, we should expect a parabolic reaction against gold in those terms. At least that is how I interpreted his email. He is 100% cash.

    Another subscriber is thinking of shorting yesterday’s bounce in the markets, although I believe he is considering buying gold stocks. I would not be short the stock market with my worst enemy’s money. But again, that is what makes a market.

    Yet another subscriber sold out of his gold miner positions after having long been a notable (you have likely heard of him) advocate of the precious metals and would now like to find a way back in. As an aside, my personal advice was ‘have patience, HUI has downside to 212, then 200 and, failing that, 175. We are now in that retrace zone now.

    I hope subscribers take the above paragraphs in the spirit intended, which is to give us all an additional nugget of education because this is not easy stuff. Nor is it a drill. This is the real world and we are managing our own finances in many cases. We find education in our own actions and beliefs and in that of others.

    I personally have been quite right in a big picture macro sense with the commodity and stock bubbles blowing out into liquidation and the ‘gold outperforms everything except cash’ stance, but in practice I was very wrong in not allowing for the full implosion of gold stocks along with the markets even as their fundamentals improved with the same drivers that pushed the USD impulsively higher.

    So, I am a brand spanking new newsletter writer, which is another way of saying that I am a person with an interest in getting the markets right and sharing that interest with readers. The guru letter down the street may get it right all the time but here at NFTRH we do not make that claim. You may well be right in being contrary my positions. But I remain confident in my bullish position on gold stocks and decidedly un-bearish position on the stock market. Let’s just call this NFTRH’s Waterloo. I must hold the line as long as the technicals and fundamentals support doing so. And they do.

    Separately, NFTRH62 was completed and sent out to subscribers this morning. The first 6 pages, devoted entirely to the precious metals sector, practically wrote themselves. I feel as though I am getting into the zone once again. I like that.
    Dec 07 8:25 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Gold
    Readers have had to go to other websites, blogs and media to get a dose of pumpy gold price micro-management because around here hype is a four letter word. The fly boys could give you all the micro-management one could ask for in a mini mania.

    Now that some pain has finally been visited upon those who bought the hysterics, we can begin to ease back into a mode where the words 'gold' and 'opportunity' may be mentioned in the same post. You understand that the details, in depth looks at the gold stocks and ongoing revisions will need to be reserved for newsletter, but this chart tells a lot all on its own.

    In the wash-rinse-repeat category, there are many folks likely to be shaken out here; folks who thought it was just as easy as listening to a hysterical major media and buying in to old yeller.

    Well, it is not that easy, unless one is prepared to truly not fret about price and simply hold value for the long term. The majority of momos who make up this recent leg higher are not prepared in any such fashion. They need to be purged.

    Disclosure: Long gold, gold stocks and cash for coming opportunities
    Dec 07 8:22 AM | Link | Comment!
  • AAU - Who ARE These Guys?
    Well, in the words of Butch Cassidy, 'who ARE those guys??'

    After a dour speech about not being a stock picker, screw it. I am going to tout. Or rather, let a subscriber do it for me. I do not pump stocks, but I do show what I hold each week and I do answer subscriber questions via email.

    One such question came from a gentleman yesterday inquiring about a target for AAU. Around 1.25 said I. Today it got there in quick time, he sold and sent me this note. This kind of stuff makes my day; not being called brilliant, cause I'm not. But having subscribers settle in and get used to me and actually have the service work for them in whatever respects they require.

    "Hi Gary, Sold AAU at $1.23. You are brilliant! My devastating losses from last year are not looking so bad anymore. Sure, I lost the profits I made, but at least my initial investment is inching back, thanks to you." --Mark

    I have been wrong on some things, and not yet proven right on others. But this is a game of probabilities and winning more than you lose and on that front, I am happy with my record. The markets are a work in progress and do not care about predictions etched in stone from gurus on high. Probabilities based on fundamentals, out-lier indicators and of course technicals... dat's da way ta do da mahkits my friends.

    Edit (3:54) Another subscriber had mailed me his thoughts that this could have been the run up to a share offering. Well, bingo Scott! But as is typical of this rare company that I actually trust, it was done in atypical fashion to the usual miner financing mill:

    Morgan J. Poliquin, President and CEO of Almaden noted that, "We were approached by a small group of strategic investors who plan to be long term shareholders of the Company and that are excited about the prospect generation process that Almaden follows. We are convinced that these investors will support the Company in future financings and in generating future support for the Company."

    Long AAU at time of writing and at time of re-post on SA
    Dec 07 8:19 AM | Link | Comment!
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