Gary Tanashian's  Instablog

Separately, and in direct contrast to my bearish commodity stance is Natty, looking for all the world to be presenting one of the best looking bottoms I have seen in a long time. It's got a MACD bullish divergence to the previous strong downtrend and a beautiful looking bend upward, on volume. Even better, the trend has recently triggered up by AROON even as UNG came down for 5 days in a row.

Only caveat? Symmetrical triangles are usually 'continuation' patterns. So, is this a consolidation before new, unthinkable lows? I put the odds at 65% bullish, 35% bearish. This may be worth a look for a blogger who is having thoughts of having to consider whether he began micromanaging the end of Hope '09 a bit too soon (NFTRH's 'best case' upsides have not been registered in SPX, oil, etc. after all).

Edit (10:29) Well, UNG declines this morning and I say what the heck, put some money where your chart is. UNG added in all accounts for a trade at the least. This after checking the chart of the actual commodity, which does not show a sym-tri.

This ETF was noted at the end of a typically cautionary post in late May as being a vehicle that one might take a look at for some end of rally upside. Recall I had no personal interest however, as I was more focused on preserving gains than adding to them in a high risk enviro.

Then came the update as DBC approached the target above the SMA 200. Now, the downturn. I owe DBC's late starter status to its heavy concentration in Jim Rogers' beloved oats and grains.... and gold, which should be cranking it up right about here to break out of those flags in ratio to all this other stuff.

I drew some green support lines on the chart but I am totally disinterested in this thing because I am disinterested in commodities, other than my short in oil.

One of NFTRH's favorite gold miners is one it no longer has a position in. NXG's journey off of the bottom has been textbook and allowed for successful trading all the way up to our target of 2.50 (I made my final sales just below in the 2.40's) that had been in place since the bottoming process of Q4, 2008.

Today is a tough one and NXG is getting hit along with everything else. But what I consider a real good buy point lay below here, and it was noted in NFTRH a few issues ago along with those of six other gold stocks. I have added a couple of them as they came toward target, but with the look of the markets and the gold sector, I see no reason not to use a ton of patience here and hold high levels of cash.

Remember what last fall felt like? Still holding all short positions in the speculation portfolio to balance gold stocks, which will ultimately benefit from gold's anticipated outperformance vs. everything as hope runs dry. But I cannot stress strongly enough, to go about this slowly... as in weeks or months. Take a big picture view and have cash. Opportunities are more fun that way.