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Gary Tanashian
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Gary Tanashian is proprietor of Biiwii.com. Actionable, hype-free technical, macro economic and sentiment analysis is provided in the premium newsletter Notes From the Rabbit Hole (http://www.biiwii.com/NFTRH/subscribe.htm). Complimentary analysis and commentary is available at the 'Biiwii Blog'... More
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  • What's Up Citi? Bloomy?
    ...not long term interest rates, I can tell you that.

    So far, not so good for the 'bond yields are going to rise' case. This is what bothers me. Why on earth would a reputable outfit like Bloomberg even publish that? Some pro TA guy for a big institution hallucinates a daily (or was it a 60 min.?) double bottom in long rates and an article is published in Bloomberg? What about the weekly (and much more significant) double bottom in the long bond fund TLT that we have been following here for many weeks now?

    Certainly these guys did not scare me into even thinking of selling my TLT. But then again, I know mumbo jumbo when I read it. What about innocent folks who just want to read the financial media and get a straight scoop? Sorry pal. This is Larry land.

    Hey, I could be crowing right into inflationary Armageddon on Monday. I don't think so, but I am not the type to call a victory til it's decided. But this was just irresponsible journalism. Then again, our major financial media are filled with that. It sells man. Everything's for sale. Even lousy information. Meanwhile, that candle on the TLT is about to make a weekly close above the resistance line that I drew a couple weeks ago.




    Sorry for the lateness in posting.  The context of the posts may be viewed at my regular blog.

    Disclosure:  Long TLT
    Sep 25 4:05 PM | Link | Comment!
  • From Citi & Bloomberg
    The things the major financial media feed the public... BTW, a gentleman from Bloomberg monitors this blog, or at least used to. Thus far I have been unable to give him anything fit to print. Wonder why? ;-)

    Some readers may remember that a couple years ago I commented on an alternate blog I used to have about some TA by Goldman's technical analysts calling for a major correction in gold. They used some mumbo jumbo about fading monthly momentum and projected gold going back to 600. I wrote something like 'if gold goes to their target it will not be because of declining monthly momentum cited by these technical analysts because the monthly chart shows no such thing'. In fact, it remained bullish and we all know where gold went.



    It feels slimy even comparing 30 year treasury bonds to gold, but one might at least wonder why this piece has appeared. Is it time to get the public 'all in' on the inflation trade? Is Larry too busy collecting millions on speaking engagements to give his tragic misdirection on long bonds? Basically, the major financial media are telling you that treasury bonds are unsafe. They are right too. Treasury bonds are a toxic waste dump. But I still believe that we are temporarily in a 'waste is rising' phase.

    Here is a chart of my own showing some parameters. Meanwhile, for the secular trigger in the long bond, NFTRH will continue to follow the real big picture view, which has not been noted recently because I don't think it is near time for it to come into play. But it has nothing to do with foolish short term 'double bottoms' or any other noisy stuff in the media.

    This article would have people jump in to the inflation trade now that things like copper and oil look like they are rolling over. Wash, rinse...

    Treasury 30 Year Yields May Reach June High
    : Technical Analysis

    By Candice Zachariahs

    Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Thirty-year Treasury yields may climb to the highest since June after forming a so-called double bottom pattern, Citigroup Inc. said, citing technical charts.

    Trend resistance for 30-year yields at 4.26 percent is “under threat,” Citigroup analysts Tom Fitzpatrick in New York and Shyam Devani in London wrote yesterday in a report. Yields will likely advance toward 4.68 percent, the most since June 12, if they rise above resistance and the double-bottom “neckline” at 4.39 percent, the bank said.

    “A double bottom has been formed and yields have been consolidating for the past few sessions,” Fitzpatrick, chief technical analyst at Citigroup, and Devani wrote. “We would not be surprised to see a break to the upside soon which should result in a test of 4.68 percent.”

    The 30-year note yielded 4.2 percent yesterday in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. The 4.50 percent security maturing in August 2039 rose 21/32, or $6.56 per $1,000 face value, to 105 3/32.

    A double bottom occurs when the price or yield of a security makes two consecutive troughs of about the same depth, and indicates it may rebound. The neckline passes through the highest point of the double bottom. In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

    To contact the reporter on this story: Candice Zachariahs in Sydney at czachariahs2@bloomberg.net

    Disclosure:  Long TLT
    Sep 25 4:01 PM | Link | Comment!
  • NFTRH - Yin & Yang
    This post goes up because I think it can have some general value to readers and because well, it's my blog and the following speaks to who I am - at least as you (especially NFTRH subscribers) know me as a market watcher.

    This morning I sent out an email pertaining to the HUI's short term situation, the risks involved therein and the general 'noise' level of the current broad market rally. Two responses came in that I found very interesting, because they basically take a look at the same characteristics (of mine) and come to wildly different conclusions.

    I think it is important to respect both viewpoints because the newsletter is definitely not for everybody and is indeed a different market letter. That is because I am a different dude and I can only be me. And believe me, you do not all want me. I don't think I am 'conceited' but I am definitely confident in who I am as a market watcher and cannot go changing, especially now that the bullish pressure has turned the screws.

    First the bad news (and I do consider it bad because this is from a thoughtful person and it bothers me that someone is paying for the service and not having expectations met). It has been a grind week after week, month after month talking about risk. Just as the popular newsletter sentiment indicator states, people are more likely to buy a newsletter with a bullish view. I can't do that right now. Just as I could not be bearish late last year and into March.

    As I replied to the subscriber, if I start flapping around in the wind instead of standing for what I believe (right or wrong), then the service would be useless to everybody.

    Hi Gary, I wrote the following before getting your update today and was just about to import it to my mailbox to send to you. I think it may be too harsh an assessment, but I also want you to know what I think about when I've had very little sleep:

    You've started to exhibit an "above the fray" kind of attitude that is bordering on the conceited. You seem, from my perspective, to feel that to steer your subscribers to truly profit from your wisdom is somehow beneath the mission of NFTRH. If all I want is a worldview according to Gary, and to profit from said worldview is a side benefit, maybe your newsletter is for me. But, maybe then, it's also a luxury I can't afford. The updates seem to have grown sparse and the profit plays are for the simple minded masses who read your blogs, not the "smart" folk who are paid subscribers.


    Your response is appreciated. I must also tell you I've been up for two days working an impossible schedule for clients I took on thinking the end of the world is at hand, so I'd better work my tail off while work is still to be had so I can give my son a least some of the stability and freedom from want, and freedom in general, my parents gave me. Sorry for the latter near run-on sentence. If I seem disturbed with you, I'm sorry. You're still cool with me. I'm just a bit tired of what's going on around me.


    It might be that a bit more of an equally weighted balance of Gary's worldview with how to make some money is what I'm after. I doubt if I'm alone in that desire.


    Then, as if its ears were burning the next mail came in. Again, these two gentlemen are looking at the same service and basically highlighting the same qualities. I suppose it is easy to pretend to be a contrarian, but it takes a real disturbed individual :-) to actually be contrary all the positive reinforcement out there. Running a newsletter, you are reminded of just how difficult it can be.

    Gary,
     
     
    It takes real honest-to-goodness courage to break from the pack and think for yourself. We are herd(ing) animals and are influenced by (large) movements of our fellow creatures. This is why the average person sells at the bottoms and buys at the tops.
     
     
    The perfect example of this is that strange pull you feel when a group of people rush in one direction. You feel compelled to follow and you rationalize that feeling by saying that they must know something you don't.
     
     
    When someone or something speaks or acts like it knows something (e.g. Fed or President) this presence acts to fill the vacuum created by our own doubt about what to do. This explains Cramer and his Cramericans. Some people "need" leadership to substitute for their lack of backbone. It also acts as a buffer to their embarrassment and anger if the movement turns out to be wrong. (Hey, I was just doing what I was told to do)
     
     
    I appreciate that you remind us to stay aware, to clearly see that the crowd is surging and moving and we don't "need" to follow simply because we feel compelled to do so. Just because the majority are doing something doesn't mean it's correct.

    Sep 24 1:37 PM | Link | Comment!
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