Gaurav

'The Crash of 2008 and What It Means' by George Soros

It is a phenomenal book. The idea is similar to Minsky's - that prices can influence earnings, it is not always that earnings determine stock prices. Where Soros gets all muddled up is when he extends it to politics.

Fast Moving Consumer Goods Stocks: Best Hedge Against Inflation

Nestle India is listed in India, so are a lot of other foreign FMCG companies like HLL (Unilever), Colgate India, P&G, Gillette (Gillette India is still listed) etc.

22 Companies with Dividends on Death Row

Q and EQ generate much more cash flow than EPS - depreciation is higher than capex, and in Q's case, the company doesnt pay cash taxes (but has taxes on income statement) due to NOL's.

12 Reasons to Short Gold

Don't forget that Rupee has depreciated 25% against dollar, so gold is at very high levels in the local market. Indians got their investment strategy right this cycle and US got it wrong. My conspiracy theory without any hard facts is that Indians are selling a ton of gold right now - that is why rural consumption in India is holding up :)

Trying to Defend Mosaic

Why can't a price of something that has gone up 10x in 2 years fall by 90% in 1 year?

ICICI Bank: Unwarranted Beating, Proven Growth Prospects

ICICI is not domestic Indian bank. 25% of its loan book is international - and thats the loan book that is growing. It has stopped growing its domestic retail book for last several qtrs because of NPA's. As they don't have a deposit base abroad, they rely on short-term borrowing to lend long-term. Their earnings are padded with one-time capital gains qtr after qtr. ICICI is like Citibank - whenever there is a problem in Indian banking sector, you can be sure ICICI will be part (and probably the cause) of the problem.

Transocean: Drilling For Profits

I am a bull on these and puzzled. Why isn't the market rewarding the drillers? What could be the bear case for drillers if oil remains above and around $100?

Can Eaton Vance's Tax-Advantaged Dividend Fund Sustain Its Yield?

From Page 2 of the Annual Report of this fund:

"As of August 31, 2007, the Fund's $700 million
issued and outstanding Auction Preferred Shares
(APS) equaled approximately 24% of total assets and
maintained a weighted average reset period of 21
days, which is comparable to what it was when the
Fund's leverage was originally issued. Use of financial
leverage creates an opportunity for increased capital
appreciation and income but, at the same time, creates
special risks (including the likelihood of greater
volatility of net asset value and market price of the
common shares). In the event of a rise in long-term
interest rates, the value of the Fund's portfolio could
decline, which would reduce the asset coverage for
its APS."

I dont find anything on the covered call strategy in the report. Rather, they use a approach called dividend capture strategy - which is basically trading to capture dividends.

What Is Citi Stock Worth?

No one can consider everything and calculate the exact EPS of Citi in 2012. I dont know how low home prices fall or how high oil rises. What I am betting on is that with a little wider spread, a little bit of inflation, international growth offset by equity dilution, Citi hits the same EPS as 5 years ago. My guess is that in the 1990's, the survivors of the housing bust took lesser time to regain their peak EPS. Citi won't go bust because it has access to capital and access to liquidity. It makes money each qtr on its new business which from now will keep covering the write-downs for next 2 years.

LarryM you are right, my maths was wrong.

Tata Motors' March Sales Growth is Disappointing

Depreciation is a phemonenon that happens every year. So why should it impact year-on-year growth rates? Have the Indian laws on depreciation changed this year because of which it is an issue this year? Thanks.

Diversification and Asset Allocation in the Indian Market

This is good work. I think that you should also consider holding period in your calculation. i.e. calculate 15 year rolling returns every month for each category you have presented (if you can get data going back another 10-15 years). Then calculate the average returns and std deviation. I will bet you that 100% stocks has highest returns and the lowest std deviation. For your very long-term holdings, stocks are much better investments than any other investment, as they offer you the lowest risk - lower even than bonds - as well as the highest returns.

The Long Case for India

There are a lot of other companies - Tata Motors, HDFC Bank, WIpro etc. Besides a lot of call centres - WNS etc. are getting listed in the US. Any opinions on them?