An oft overlooked indicator of consumer confidence and, thereby the overall state of the economy, involves low-cost consignment retailers. The more people frequent and spend at stores like Goodwill or The Salvation Army, the less they are shopping at mainstream chains and malls. As was summarized Tuesday by Reuters' "Drop in retail sales weighs on stocks", recent indicators of stabilization may have been mistaken or have not traveled down to the average consumer, especially if they are worried about becoming unemployed.

MSSI figures through March-09 illustrate that the average Geezeo shopper visiting stores operated by Goodwill Industries has both increased his or her monthly spending and increased the amount of trips in the month. Looking at data for the last twelve months reveals a more than 28% increase in frequency as well as a year on year jump of 36% in spending. Observing these trends from the beginning of the year indicates that this spending increase is continuing, with Geezeo users increasing monthly spending by almost 25% overall since December. This can be attributed to the increased customer traffic to Goodwill locations prompted by higher unemployment and a relatively bleak outlook for the short term.

The recent improvements to consumer confidence has been seen at some restaurants and retailers, as was discussed in "Recipe for Success" and "MSSI Monthly Movers: March". The effect this shift has had on grocery chains, however, has been varied.

Across all grocery chains tracked by Geezeo's MSSI, consumers' average monthly spending has remained relatively unchanged in 2009, only increasing by an overall of 0.1% from December of last year. Gains over the last twelve months have been only a moderate 6.39% as well. These facts do not tell the full story.

March results are starting to come out and, unsurprisingly, restaurants that committed to aggressive cost controls and addressing their margins head on have reported better-than-expected first quarter results. Two of these chains are California Pizza Kitchen (CPKI) and Ruby Tuesday (RT).

Both of these firms beat Street expectations, since, as is reported by Reuters in the article "California Pizza shares rise on better Q1 outlook", tighter operations combined with lower commodity prices have surely helped sustain profits. MSSI monthly spending data shows that consumer spending at these two retailers also helps to explain the success seen at CPK and Ruby Tuesday restaurants.

You would think that Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) stores would be seeing at least similar spending levels as last year, maybe even increases due to the retailer's main competitor going out of business. Recent MSSI statistics, however, show that the tough economic conditions are keeping Geezeo users spending less on their electronics and media. MSSI monthly spending has dropped by almost 7% since December and in the last twelve months an overall decrease of 5.67% has been observed. With weak consumer confidence this is not necessarily a surprise, however, it is indeed worrisome for Best Buy.

Consumers are spending their money wisely, or so you would think by reading all the recent financial reports, but February’s MSSI statistics highlight an interesting fact concerning how Geezeo users have been spending on a certain household staple: food.

The summary statistics across major grocery and restaurant retailers indicate that the average user is not cutting their dining out habit after all. MSSI data spanning over 50 restaurant chains shows that year-on-year spending increased 9.32%, $47.22 to $51.62, in February.

With consumers scaling back big purchases this year, you would think that specialty retailers would be affected by drops in revenue as well. February's MSSI data, however, shows that this is not necessarily the case.

Looking at three of these retailers in more detail highlight the issues, both good and bad, that are shaping the market right now. The figures we have compiled at retailers Sephora (which is part of [[LVMHF.PK]]), Weight Watchers (WTW) and Limited Brand's Victoria's Secret (LTD) do highlight that times are not necessarily the best, but the stores still are certainly open for business.

Consumers are looking to cut costs wherever they can. Looking at MSSI statistics of five major wireless carriers reveals that the cell phone industry is no different. Spending levels at Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), AT&T (NYSE: T) and T-Mobile (NYSE: DT) have all seen changes since October of last year.

This month’s MSSI data shows that monthly average spending at Verizon and Sprint increased by 3% and 1% respectively, whereas T-Mobile and AT&T observed declines of slightly more than 1% each. But how are these firms fairing in a longer time frame?

Last month in the story "Winners in Automotive Retail", the strong market for replacement automobile parts was discussed. Recent reports on AutoZone's (NYSE:AZO) February data, as well as the recent report on the firm's last quarter results, "AutoZone profit beats estimates; shares rise", reveal that this trend is likely to continue.

MSSI statistics from February show that monthly spending at the retailer has increased 6.93% in the last three months and 17.52% from February '08.

Although the last quarter was full of firms seeing drops in spending, there were firms that did well. An example of such a firm would be Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (NASDAQ:CBRL), whose recent profit declaration showed that the firm’s earnings per share beat Street predictions by $0.06.

MSSI statistics on Cracker Barrel show that monthly spending by the average Geezeo user has increased by 7.55% from September ’08 and an almost 15% total gain in 2008. Frequency of visits has stayed relatively constant throughout this time, which would suggest that the rising food prices and thereby higher menu prices have not discouraged customers from the old time-themed restaurant.

Last quarter's results show that the department store retailers are still earning profits. Nordstrom’s (NYSE:JWN) profit dropped, which comes as no surprise given the economic situation and retailers will likely continue to be affected by the drop in consumer confidence until the average American feels that things have turned around.

The firm, however, and along with its competitor Macy’s (NYSE:M) beat analysts’ predictions despite decreases in sales, as the firms’ financials that were recently discussed in the articles ”Nordstrom beats by penny, relief sends shares north” and ”Macy's quarterly profit tops view; keeps outlook” show.

With the economic situation on everyone’s minds these days, it should come as no surprise that the theatre operator Regal Entertainment Group (NYSE:RGC) is feeling the pinch as well. As recently reported in an article last week, ”Regal profit misses expectations, shares fall”, the firm’s earnings per share did not meet Wall Street’s expectations, which sent the stock down.

This fact notwithstanding, recent MSSI data on consumer spending shows that people are actually going to the movies more, with the average user attending one of Regal’s theatres increasing four months in a row. Combining this with the fact that the average spending per trip by these same users has increased 6.67% this past January compared with January ’08 indicates that consumers are perhaps looking to save money on big-ticket vacations in favor of catching the newest movie.

Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) has more than 10 million subscribers and like this recent article, "Netflix passes 10 million subscriber mark", discusses, it is the only firm in the marketplace offering instantaneous viewing of its media to consumers.

So how come the firms' competitors, namely Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Blockbuster (NYSE:BBI), aren't following suit? The simple answer is that Netflix has positioned itself to be the trailblazer in their industry and the other firms are playing catch-up. Consumer spending has been growing steadily, rising 5.75% in 2008 overall according to MSSI figures.