Gene Andrews

Gene Andrews
Contributor since: 2012
Company: SUB~ROSA CAPITAL, L.L.C.
Thanks Ray. -- It could be a great trade. It is working out at the moment, but I will wait until it closes to confirm.
Anup - I am Short the Aug 15'14 30 put; the Aug 15'14 32 put and long the Aug 15'14 32 Call. I am obviously bullish on FCX. Although it is OTM for the moment (mostly the calls) if this stock is "put to me" I will own 6000 shares at an average price of about $29.50. If that happens I may sell the calls buy some puts and be long calls "synthetically". All that to say that I agree with you. Whether we are right or not ... I suppose we will need to wait for time to reveal that mystery.
Have a great day...
Hey Bret – I concur on BAC. Good call. On a side note just to appreciate where and why it all started (i.e. where and why the advance first commenced). Check out the following Block Trades.
23-Sep-11 13:07:44 THRD $6.31 60,000,000
23-Sep-11 13:09:22 THRD $6.31 60,000,000
23-Sep-11 13:14:27 THRD $6.31 9,000,000
23-Sep-11 13:14:37 THRD $6.31 9,000,000
23-Sep-11 13:14:41 THRD $6.31 9,000,000
23-Sep-11 13:14:48 THRD $6.31 9,000,000
23-Sep-11 13:14:53 THRD $6.31 9,000,000
23-Sep-11 13:15:00 THRD $6.31 9,000,000
23-Sep-11 13:15:04 THRD $6.31 9,000,000
23-Sep-11 13:15:15 THRD $6.31 9,000,000
23-Sep-11 13:15:22 THRD $6.31 9,000,000
23-Sep-11 13:15:34 THRD $6.31 9,000,000
23-Sep-11 13:15:38 THRD $6.31 9,000,000
23-Sep-11 13:15:43 THRD $6.31 9,000,000
23-Sep-11 13:15:46 THRD $6.31 9,000,000

BAC trades some very large blocks but these are extraordinary. There were many more blocks but these all occurred after the close on the same day at exactly the same price.
In late February and early March I believe they began another leg up with more large blocks. There could be a short term temporary shakeout but I agree with you it is going higher.
Have a great day...
Ray - FYI -- I sold (20) at $4.10. If it works I will own 2000 shares @ $40.90. If not I will walk with $8K. Worse things could happen -- but i'm good for the moment.
Have a great day...
nochance - Selling the Puts is actually a bullish play intended to establish a long position at lower levels. Here is another tactic if in the event you are fortunate enough to have the stock "put to you". You could then buy puts and be long "synthetically" calls. The strike price for the long puts is best determined when already in possession of the stock.
Just trying to squeeze as much juice out of the fruit as possible.
Ray - It looks even better today @ $3.95 Bid $4.05 Ask
I would not be shorting IP at these levels. However, I would sell the Jan 16'15 45 put at $3.90 or better. I suspect that insiders were distributing in mid February and they are beginning to cover short positions and accumulate presently. The block activity was fairly pronounced in early February as well. This information is now available on my website but it ain't free.
Hi Bret - I know you are a long only guy. As for myself I am more market neutral with a slight bias to the directional trend. I was just filled on a cover for Jul 18'14 25.00 puts. Bought them at 2.18252 and the cover was @ 1.23. Even though it filled I'm not quite ready to go long. In the event it approaches 25.00, I will either sell some puts or go long calls (synthetically).
Happy Trading
Spinrbait - they were the 15's, hence the Jan 16'(15). I did not see big blocks of calls ... I saw big blocks in the underlying. Nevertheless, you can scan for unusual option activity through various services which cost about $500 per month. Sometimes opportunities present themselves in the equity environment and other times they present themselves in the options environment (sometimes both).
Obviously, options happen much quicker and you only get a glimpse. Unfortunately, collecting trade activity in options is a manual endeavor (at least for me); whereas, collecting blocks of stock is automated.
I like the covered call play, as well as the weekly's - you could also consider buying puts and being long calls synthetically (for a little downside protection) if their pricing presents an advantage. It really depends on what is happening in the bid/ask and on how long you intend to hold the stock.
So many choices - that must be why they call them options....
CVX has been berry good to me. I bought 50 Jan 16'15 110 calls @ 7.00608. The bid at the moment stands @ $8.85. I will ride it out a bit further probably when the underlying breaks $121.00 (another 6 bucks or so). If I see more large blocks at critical levels I will either add to my position or liquidate.
I reasoned from some of the big blocks that I witnessed that insiders were covering short positions that they established in late December.
It was a much different jungle back when your aunt bought those shares. People actually invested in companies to provide capital for expansion. The capital created jobs, accommodated research, built facilities and sparked innovation. The market itself has now become a product. Not that I have anything against carpetbaggers per-se, it just doesn't seem like the type of innovation that built America. God Bless your aunt and others like her for having faith in the American way....
I went long ESRX on Dec 27 @ $52.75. This is just a trade
Hey James --- You are correct. But I'm OK with it because I have traded it twice in the last month (short and long) for some nice returns. In retrospect there are many trades I could have made and a few I should have never made. That's just trading. Thus far out of 124 round trip trades: 114 have been profitable. I wish it could be 100% but it is not.
Back in at 7.25 would have been nice but like I always say I would rather be wishing I was in, than wishing I was out.
I was stopped out on AAPL yesterday and as distasteful as it was I felt a sense of relief. It was like passing a kidney stone.
Sold ANR yesterday @ $7.60 -- Gain 7.80%
Will buy back in at $7.05 if possible.
Cha ching!
I am looking to short PG ... just waiting for it to hit my price target.
Nice Post Jonathan. Congratulations also to those who have written commentary for presenting equally well thought out points of view within the thread (especially Mark Anthony). This was of particular interest to me because I am long APA, BTU, CHK, ANR, HES and CNX. All of these are new positions (this week) and since I am a trader and not an investor I do not intend to hold them any longer than a few days or possibly a few weeks. I witnessed large block trades in each of these issues which lead me to believe they will be advancing even if only on a short to intermediate term basis.
Many RIA's are too lazy to do what it takes to consistently pick winners. In addition, they find an approach that works momentarily, but which eventually fails. They haven't a clue as to why it worked or why it failed. They focus on the variables instead of the constants. Like a wayward minnow (not a true buccaneer) crashing on the beach believing it was much further away because he was looking through the wrong end of the telescope.
They rely on information disseminated in common which is seldom truthful, often misleading and in some cases deliberately falsified. But they use it because everyone uses it. I suspect they do that because it is difficult if not impossible to trade the markets and gather assets simultaneously.
I consider it a perfidious act to take investors money and give it to someone else to manage. It makes those of us who work ridiculously hard to develop legitimately innovative technologies of our own invention work even harder.
The time to be long XOM was when it traded a 25 million share block @ $59.10 along with a host of multi-million share blocks at the same price. It subsequently advanced to $88.00.
I covered a short position in COP today and am waiting to go long @ $54.75. Hopefully tomorrow I will get the chance.
That said I also like CVX (long) better @ $105.51. I recently covered a short position in CVX that I shorted @ $118.00.
Sorry for the lack of clarity. A 2 million share trade in AAPL is a very large block and two of them even more-so. Additionally, If I see a group of blocks that are at the same price and traded/reported at the same time I view them as a single block.
I consider it the point at which Insiders who dumped at $702.56, will cover their short positions accumulate and go long. The blocks have to be compelling. A single trade of 2.8 billion dollars in value is compelling enough for me to expect a reversal in the short to intermediate term.
So in the event, that there are large blocks in my data collection algo (that I will run over the weekend) I believe a reversal is likely.
If you go to my Profile and then to my website, I can expound in greater detail. Certainly enough to tell you whether the blocks were present or not.
Jim Cramer says “sell AAPL”. Talk about the trappings of a clown. He should have said that when apple traded 2 very large blocks @ $702.56 at the open on September 21, along with multiple issues in the broader market. The market as a whole as well as AAPL has declined substantially since that date. I suspect AAPL will advance from these levels because Cramer has the propensity to call a top at a bottom.
Believe it or not, I expect AAPL to have a reflex response to Cramer's commentary. It will be a similar to a Reflex Arc. For those of you unfamiliar with the term: A reflex Arc is a neural pathway that controls an action reflex. In higher animals, most sensory neurons do not pass directly into the brain, but synapse in the spinal cord. This characteristic allows reflex actions to occur relatively quickly by activating spinal motor neurons without the delay of routing signals through the brain, although the brain will receive sensory input while the reflex action occurs. In essence it is the equivalent of acting without much thinking, which is what I expect, will happen to those who follow Cramer without questioning his motivations.
AAPL is the sharpest tool in the shed. I am in no rush to liquidate. I will probably hold because I know that if I sell I must wait at least 30 days before buying it again unless I want to forego writing off the loss against other profits in the portfolio. I will know much better after I review this week’s download. If I see a block in the 2 million share range I will feel much better about it. I fully expect to see a block or a series of blocks. I think this is a shakeout especially since Cramer is giving it a sell rating. I also believe the move is about 2 week’s out.
Overall I am not surprised about this pullback in the market as a whole, except that I thought it would happen sooner. Like I said -- It was set up on September 21. My Post of October 1st “May you Live in Interesting Times” covers it in detail. I know I sound like a broken record but it is important to factor in the margin clerks for getting the best pricing.
Today I would be looking to establish long positions, add to long positions and covering short positions that are profitable and triggering our target expectations.
BTW - Ashraf is correct there is nothing wrong with AAPL except perhaps people's perception.
That’s it for now … have a great session.
This recent fall in AAPL as well as the broader market was set up on September 21. I posted a commentary on my blog which is too detailed to cover here. In short AAPL traded (2) very large blocks at $702.56. AAPL advance to $705.07 and it has been all downhill from there. I will not be supprised to see several blocks after the close today.
Jim Cramer says sell AAPL. Talk about the trappings of a clown. Believe it or not, I expect AAPL to have a reflex response to Cramer's commentary. It will be a similar to a Reflex Arc. For those of you unfamiliar with the term: A reflex Arc is a neural pathway that controls an action reflex. In higher animals, most sensory neurons do not pass directly into the brain, but synapse in the spinal cord. This characteristic allows reflex actions to occur relatively quickly by activating spinal motor neurons without the delay of routing signals through the brain, although the brain will receive sensory input while the reflex action occurs. In essence it is the equivalent of acting without much thinking, which is what I expect, will happen to those who follow Cramer without questioning his motivations.
AAPL is the sharpest tool in the shed. I am in no rush to liquidate. I will probably hold because I know that if I sell I must wait at least 30 days before buying it again unless I want to forego writing off the loss against other profits in the portfolio. I will know much better after I review this week’s download. If I see a block in the 2 million share range I will feel much better about it. I fully expect to see a block or a series of blocks. I think this is a shakeout especially since Cramer is giving it a sell rating. I also believe the move is about 2 week’s out.
Overall I am not surprised about this pullback in the market as a whole, except that I thought it would happen sooner. Like I said -- It was set up on September 21. My Post of October 1st “May you Live in Interesting Times” covers it in detail. I know I sound like a broken record but it is important to factor in the margin clerks for getting the best pricing.
Today I would be looking to establish long positions, add to long positions and covering short positions that are profitable and triggering our target expectations.
That’s it for now … have a great session.
etm747,
My poetic license has been revoked. You are absolutely correct concerning that word I can no longer use. I am twice blessed since not only did I have a profitable trade but I learned something in the process. Two gainers -- Not such a bad deal really.
Thank you.
etm747@yahoo.com -- When investors encounter new ideas which require some effort to be comprehended, they might be carried away with the feeling of being unsuitably rewarded. Perhaps they find some of the ideas not to their liking and not liking an idea is common reason for misunderstanding them.
I regret that my word selection is not to your liking but I believe it is more prudent for you to up your game than me to lower the standard. I try to be as descriptive and precise as possible. It is a simple matter of some words conveying ideas better than others. I believe that is substantive by any measure.
With respect to the article -- it speaks for itself. You will need to specify with particularity rather than engaging in a "straw-man argument". I invite debate but I never take part in "straw-man" arguments because there is no logical limit to the application of pointless criticisms. Typically, a reciprocal action is initiated which in theory must lead to extremes. I am perfectly comfortable with responding to equally valid propositions, but not to the extent of engaging in endless argument that reaches no conclusion and teaches no lesson.
Nevertheless, I do have some advice -- Get a dictionary. I have one and I use it all the time. By the time my life is over, I hope I will have used every word in it.
If you are disturbed by what I write then you have the option of not reading it. That should simplify things for you.
You are more than welcome.
I apologize for not getting back sooner but I hardly come to this site anymore. Almost never. That said I am still short GE and Will maintain the position until I am either stopped out or I cash out @ $20.40 or better. It is down 2.08% as of the close of today's session. I believe after the euphoria of Bernanke's magic powder the market will pull back significantly.
I can't help but wonder if it was just to steal as much as they can before being booted out in the event Romney is elected. Who knows?
No I did not get stopped out. You need to re-read the article. Perhaps you are not familiar with position sizing as a tactical component of strategy. As you can see from my position sizing grid I was not intending to stop out until it reached $37.44. It did not trigger the stop out. Instead I maintained the position and adjusted the cover price.
I may actually go long MO sometime this week. I have not yet reviewed all of last week's data but I will soon enough. This was just another trade to me and I was not worried at any time. I thought I articulated that.
I think just for the record you should know that I am not competing with anyone. That would be pointless because there is no profit in it. But if you insist then this is only (1) single trade. 34 of my published 37 trades are winners. That is 92%. There is the bar if such things matter.
I intentionally published the articles so that they can be seen by all and they can be judged by all. That is assuming they read the articles and comprehend the matters contemplated therein. That there is what it is.
p_salerno1 -- Just covered just in case you were wondering and everything turned out OK. Nice little gain of 4.78%. Here is the key point you should take from this. If it had been a loss of 4.78% I would have been fine too. The only trade that can hurt you is the one that matters too much.
BTW - Current Score is : 37 Trades -- 34 Winners -- 3 Losers
Have a great day...
Just covered the full position @ $33.75. Gain 4.78%.
Although it took a bit longer than expected they can run but they can't hide.
Have a nice day...
Just covered the full position @ $37.75 Gain 6.16%
Have a nice day....
No need to apologize. This is a free country. You certainly do not offend me in having an opposing view.
Enjoy the dividend....
Oh man....that was funny and witty. You got that right.....
Well not to put too fine a point on it, I shorted FCX yesterday for a trade and only for a trade. It just seems like the right thing to do for the moment.
This is a good article and the thread was also a good read.
thanks to one and all...
It is amazing how markets work. I have a short on MO, FCX and I am waiting for LLY to hit my target to go short them also.
I'm not saying your wrong and I'm right -- I'm am saying that isn't it interesting that different people can look at the exact same data and draw completely different conclusions. Thanks for the article.
It is fascinating....