Hey James --- You are correct. But I'm OK with it because I have traded it twice in the last month (short and long) for some nice returns. In retrospect there are many trades I could have made and a few I should have never made. That's just trading. Thus far out of 124 round trip trades: 114 have been profitable. I wish it could be 100% but it is not.
Back in at 7.25 would have been nice but like I always say I would rather be wishing I was in, than wishing I was out.
I was stopped out on AAPL yesterday and as distasteful as it was I felt a sense of relief. It was like passing a kidney stone.
Nice Post Jonathan. Congratulations also to those who have written commentary for presenting equally well thought out points of view within the thread (especially Mark Anthony). This was of particular interest to me because I am long APA, BTU, CHK, ANR, HES and CNX. All of these are new positions (this week) and since I am a trader and not an investor I do not intend to hold them any longer than a few days or possibly a few weeks. I witnessed large block trades in each of these issues which lead me to believe they will be advancing even if only on a short to intermediate term basis.
Many RIA's are too lazy to do what it takes to consistently pick winners. In addition, they find an approach that works momentarily, but which eventually fails. They haven't a clue as to why it worked or why it failed. They focus on the variables instead of the constants. Like a wayward minnow (not a true buccaneer) crashing on the beach believing it was much further away because he was looking through the wrong end of the telescope.
They rely on information disseminated in common which is seldom truthful, often misleading and in some cases deliberately falsified. But they use it because everyone uses it. I suspect they do that because it is difficult if not impossible to trade the markets and gather assets simultaneously.
I consider it a perfidious act to take investors money and give it to someone else to manage. It makes those of us who work ridiculously hard to develop legitimately innovative technologies of our own invention work even harder.
Exxon Mobil: The Definition Of A Dividend Winning Stock Is On Sale, And Should Be Owned By Everyone [View article]
The time to be long XOM was when it traded a 25 million share block @ $59.10 along with a host of multi-million share blocks at the same price. It subsequently advanced to $88.00.
I covered a short position in COP today and am waiting to go long @ $54.75. Hopefully tomorrow I will get the chance.
That said I also like CVX (long) better @ $105.51. I recently covered a short position in CVX that I shorted @ $118.00.
The Real Reason Apple Keeps Going Down [View article]
Sorry for the lack of clarity. A 2 million share trade in AAPL is a very large block and two of them even more-so. Additionally, If I see a group of blocks that are at the same price and traded/reported at the same time I view them as a single block.
I consider it the point at which Insiders who dumped at $702.56, will cover their short positions accumulate and go long. The blocks have to be compelling. A single trade of 2.8 billion dollars in value is compelling enough for me to expect a reversal in the short to intermediate term.
So in the event, that there are large blocks in my data collection algo (that I will run over the weekend) I believe a reversal is likely.
If you go to my Profile and then to my website, I can expound in greater detail. Certainly enough to tell you whether the blocks were present or not.
The Real Reason Apple Keeps Going Down [View article]
Jim Cramer says “sell AAPL”. Talk about the trappings of a clown. He should have said that when apple traded 2 very large blocks @ $702.56 at the open on September 21, along with multiple issues in the broader market. The market as a whole as well as AAPL has declined substantially since that date. I suspect AAPL will advance from these levels because Cramer has the propensity to call a top at a bottom.
Believe it or not, I expect AAPL to have a reflex response to Cramer's commentary. It will be a similar to a Reflex Arc. For those of you unfamiliar with the term: A reflex Arc is a neural pathway that controls an action reflex. In higher animals, most sensory neurons do not pass directly into the brain, but synapse in the spinal cord. This characteristic allows reflex actions to occur relatively quickly by activating spinal motor neurons without the delay of routing signals through the brain, although the brain will receive sensory input while the reflex action occurs. In essence it is the equivalent of acting without much thinking, which is what I expect, will happen to those who follow Cramer without questioning his motivations.
AAPL is the sharpest tool in the shed. I am in no rush to liquidate. I will probably hold because I know that if I sell I must wait at least 30 days before buying it again unless I want to forego writing off the loss against other profits in the portfolio. I will know much better after I review this week’s download. If I see a block in the 2 million share range I will feel much better about it. I fully expect to see a block or a series of blocks. I think this is a shakeout especially since Cramer is giving it a sell rating. I also believe the move is about 2 week’s out.
Overall I am not surprised about this pullback in the market as a whole, except that I thought it would happen sooner. Like I said -- It was set up on September 21. My Post of October 1st “May you Live in Interesting Times” covers it in detail. I know I sound like a broken record but it is important to factor in the margin clerks for getting the best pricing.
Today I would be looking to establish long positions, add to long positions and covering short positions that are profitable and triggering our target expectations.
BTW - Ashraf is correct there is nothing wrong with AAPL except perhaps people's perception.
The Real Reason Apple Keeps Going Down [View article]
This recent fall in AAPL as well as the broader market was set up on September 21. I posted a commentary on my blog which is too detailed to cover here. In short AAPL traded (2) very large blocks at $702.56. AAPL advance to $705.07 and it has been all downhill from there. I will not be supprised to see several blocks after the close today.
Jim Cramer says sell AAPL. Talk about the trappings of a clown. Believe it or not, I expect AAPL to have a reflex response to Cramer's commentary. It will be a similar to a Reflex Arc. For those of you unfamiliar with the term: A reflex Arc is a neural pathway that controls an action reflex. In higher animals, most sensory neurons do not pass directly into the brain, but synapse in the spinal cord. This characteristic allows reflex actions to occur relatively quickly by activating spinal motor neurons without the delay of routing signals through the brain, although the brain will receive sensory input while the reflex action occurs. In essence it is the equivalent of acting without much thinking, which is what I expect, will happen to those who follow Cramer without questioning his motivations. AAPL is the sharpest tool in the shed. I am in no rush to liquidate. I will probably hold because I know that if I sell I must wait at least 30 days before buying it again unless I want to forego writing off the loss against other profits in the portfolio. I will know much better after I review this week’s download. If I see a block in the 2 million share range I will feel much better about it. I fully expect to see a block or a series of blocks. I think this is a shakeout especially since Cramer is giving it a sell rating. I also believe the move is about 2 week’s out. Overall I am not surprised about this pullback in the market as a whole, except that I thought it would happen sooner. Like I said -- It was set up on September 21. My Post of October 1st “May you Live in Interesting Times” covers it in detail. I know I sound like a broken record but it is important to factor in the margin clerks for getting the best pricing. Today I would be looking to establish long positions, add to long positions and covering short positions that are profitable and triggering our target expectations. That’s it for now … have a great session.
My poetic license has been revoked. You are absolutely correct concerning that word I can no longer use. I am twice blessed since not only did I have a profitable trade but I learned something in the process. Two gainers -- Not such a bad deal really.
etm747@yahoo.com -- When investors encounter new ideas which require some effort to be comprehended, they might be carried away with the feeling of being unsuitably rewarded. Perhaps they find some of the ideas not to their liking and not liking an idea is common reason for misunderstanding them.
I regret that my word selection is not to your liking but I believe it is more prudent for you to up your game than me to lower the standard. I try to be as descriptive and precise as possible. It is a simple matter of some words conveying ideas better than others. I believe that is substantive by any measure.
With respect to the article -- it speaks for itself. You will need to specify with particularity rather than engaging in a "straw-man argument". I invite debate but I never take part in "straw-man" arguments because there is no logical limit to the application of pointless criticisms. Typically, a reciprocal action is initiated which in theory must lead to extremes. I am perfectly comfortable with responding to equally valid propositions, but not to the extent of engaging in endless argument that reaches no conclusion and teaches no lesson.
Nevertheless, I do have some advice -- Get a dictionary. I have one and I use it all the time. By the time my life is over, I hope I will have used every word in it.
If you are disturbed by what I write then you have the option of not reading it. That should simplify things for you.
General Electric - Short This 'Grin Without A Cat' [View article]
I apologize for not getting back sooner but I hardly come to this site anymore. Almost never. That said I am still short GE and Will maintain the position until I am either stopped out or I cash out @ $20.40 or better. It is down 2.08% as of the close of today's session. I believe after the euphoria of Bernanke's magic powder the market will pull back significantly.
I can't help but wonder if it was just to steal as much as they can before being booted out in the event Romney is elected. Who knows?
Altria Group: A Short Of Sorts, Then Long [View article]
No I did not get stopped out. You need to re-read the article. Perhaps you are not familiar with position sizing as a tactical component of strategy. As you can see from my position sizing grid I was not intending to stop out until it reached $37.44. It did not trigger the stop out. Instead I maintained the position and adjusted the cover price.
I may actually go long MO sometime this week. I have not yet reviewed all of last week's data but I will soon enough. This was just another trade to me and I was not worried at any time. I thought I articulated that.
I think just for the record you should know that I am not competing with anyone. That would be pointless because there is no profit in it. But if you insist then this is only (1) single trade. 34 of my published 37 trades are winners. That is 92%. There is the bar if such things matter.
I intentionally published the articles so that they can be seen by all and they can be judged by all. That is assuming they read the articles and comprehend the matters contemplated therein. That there is what it is.
Altria Group: A Short Of Sorts, Then Long [View article]
p_salerno1 -- Just covered just in case you were wondering and everything turned out OK. Nice little gain of 4.78%. Here is the key point you should take from this. If it had been a loss of 4.78% I would have been fine too. The only trade that can hurt you is the one that matters too much.
BTW - Current Score is : 37 Trades -- 34 Winners -- 3 Losers
Consolidation And Growth Levers Should Make Express Scripts A Long-Term Winner [View article]
Coal Stocks Look Ready To Run [View article]
Back in at 7.25 would have been nice but like I always say I would rather be wishing I was in, than wishing I was out.
I was stopped out on AAPL yesterday and as distasteful as it was I felt a sense of relief. It was like passing a kidney stone.
Coal Stocks Look Ready To Run [View article]
Will buy back in at $7.05 if possible.
Cha ching!
Can Procter & Gamble Save Your Retirement Portfolio? [View article]
Coal Stocks Look Ready To Run [View article]
Figuring Out What Really Matters [View article]
They rely on information disseminated in common which is seldom truthful, often misleading and in some cases deliberately falsified. But they use it because everyone uses it. I suspect they do that because it is difficult if not impossible to trade the markets and gather assets simultaneously.
I consider it a perfidious act to take investors money and give it to someone else to manage. It makes those of us who work ridiculously hard to develop legitimately innovative technologies of our own invention work even harder.
Exxon Mobil: The Definition Of A Dividend Winning Stock Is On Sale, And Should Be Owned By Everyone [View article]
I covered a short position in COP today and am waiting to go long @ $54.75. Hopefully tomorrow I will get the chance.
That said I also like CVX (long) better @ $105.51. I recently covered a short position in CVX that I shorted @ $118.00.
The Real Reason Apple Keeps Going Down [View article]
I consider it the point at which Insiders who dumped at $702.56, will cover their short positions accumulate and go long. The blocks have to be compelling. A single trade of 2.8 billion dollars in value is compelling enough for me to expect a reversal in the short to intermediate term.
So in the event, that there are large blocks in my data collection algo (that I will run over the weekend) I believe a reversal is likely.
If you go to my Profile and then to my website, I can expound in greater detail. Certainly enough to tell you whether the blocks were present or not.
The Real Reason Apple Keeps Going Down [View article]
Believe it or not, I expect AAPL to have a reflex response to Cramer's commentary. It will be a similar to a Reflex Arc. For those of you unfamiliar with the term: A reflex Arc is a neural pathway that controls an action reflex. In higher animals, most sensory neurons do not pass directly into the brain, but synapse in the spinal cord. This characteristic allows reflex actions to occur relatively quickly by activating spinal motor neurons without the delay of routing signals through the brain, although the brain will receive sensory input while the reflex action occurs. In essence it is the equivalent of acting without much thinking, which is what I expect, will happen to those who follow Cramer without questioning his motivations.
AAPL is the sharpest tool in the shed. I am in no rush to liquidate. I will probably hold because I know that if I sell I must wait at least 30 days before buying it again unless I want to forego writing off the loss against other profits in the portfolio. I will know much better after I review this week’s download. If I see a block in the 2 million share range I will feel much better about it. I fully expect to see a block or a series of blocks. I think this is a shakeout especially since Cramer is giving it a sell rating. I also believe the move is about 2 week’s out.
Overall I am not surprised about this pullback in the market as a whole, except that I thought it would happen sooner. Like I said -- It was set up on September 21. My Post of October 1st “May you Live in Interesting Times” covers it in detail. I know I sound like a broken record but it is important to factor in the margin clerks for getting the best pricing.
Today I would be looking to establish long positions, add to long positions and covering short positions that are profitable and triggering our target expectations.
BTW - Ashraf is correct there is nothing wrong with AAPL except perhaps people's perception.
That’s it for now … have a great session.
The Real Reason Apple Keeps Going Down [View article]
Jim Cramer says sell AAPL. Talk about the trappings of a clown. Believe it or not, I expect AAPL to have a reflex response to Cramer's commentary. It will be a similar to a Reflex Arc. For those of you unfamiliar with the term: A reflex Arc is a neural pathway that controls an action reflex. In higher animals, most sensory neurons do not pass directly into the brain, but synapse in the spinal cord. This characteristic allows reflex actions to occur relatively quickly by activating spinal motor neurons without the delay of routing signals through the brain, although the brain will receive sensory input while the reflex action occurs. In essence it is the equivalent of acting without much thinking, which is what I expect, will happen to those who follow Cramer without questioning his motivations.
AAPL is the sharpest tool in the shed. I am in no rush to liquidate. I will probably hold because I know that if I sell I must wait at least 30 days before buying it again unless I want to forego writing off the loss against other profits in the portfolio. I will know much better after I review this week’s download. If I see a block in the 2 million share range I will feel much better about it. I fully expect to see a block or a series of blocks. I think this is a shakeout especially since Cramer is giving it a sell rating. I also believe the move is about 2 week’s out.
Overall I am not surprised about this pullback in the market as a whole, except that I thought it would happen sooner. Like I said -- It was set up on September 21. My Post of October 1st “May you Live in Interesting Times” covers it in detail. I know I sound like a broken record but it is important to factor in the margin clerks for getting the best pricing.
Today I would be looking to establish long positions, add to long positions and covering short positions that are profitable and triggering our target expectations.
That’s it for now … have a great session.
Dow Chemical: A Bounce Then A Fall [View article]
My poetic license has been revoked. You are absolutely correct concerning that word I can no longer use. I am twice blessed since not only did I have a profitable trade but I learned something in the process. Two gainers -- Not such a bad deal really.
Thank you.
Dow Chemical: A Bounce Then A Fall [View article]
I regret that my word selection is not to your liking but I believe it is more prudent for you to up your game than me to lower the standard. I try to be as descriptive and precise as possible. It is a simple matter of some words conveying ideas better than others. I believe that is substantive by any measure.
With respect to the article -- it speaks for itself. You will need to specify with particularity rather than engaging in a "straw-man argument". I invite debate but I never take part in "straw-man" arguments because there is no logical limit to the application of pointless criticisms. Typically, a reciprocal action is initiated which in theory must lead to extremes. I am perfectly comfortable with responding to equally valid propositions, but not to the extent of engaging in endless argument that reaches no conclusion and teaches no lesson.
Nevertheless, I do have some advice -- Get a dictionary. I have one and I use it all the time. By the time my life is over, I hope I will have used every word in it.
If you are disturbed by what I write then you have the option of not reading it. That should simplify things for you.
You are more than welcome.
General Electric - Short This 'Grin Without A Cat' [View article]
I can't help but wonder if it was just to steal as much as they can before being booted out in the event Romney is elected. Who knows?
Altria Group: A Short Of Sorts, Then Long [View article]
I may actually go long MO sometime this week. I have not yet reviewed all of last week's data but I will soon enough. This was just another trade to me and I was not worried at any time. I thought I articulated that.
I think just for the record you should know that I am not competing with anyone. That would be pointless because there is no profit in it. But if you insist then this is only (1) single trade. 34 of my published 37 trades are winners. That is 92%. There is the bar if such things matter.
I intentionally published the articles so that they can be seen by all and they can be judged by all. That is assuming they read the articles and comprehend the matters contemplated therein. That there is what it is.
Altria Group: A Short Of Sorts, Then Long [View article]
BTW - Current Score is : 37 Trades -- 34 Winners -- 3 Losers
Have a great day...