Why Caterpillar Is Ridiculously Cheap [View article]
I agree with you CAT will advance in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, I sold on Friday anticipating a short term decline. I wrote an article on May 18 advising a long position at $86.50 for 1/4 of a position and to add the remaining 3/4 at $79.50 . Both prices triggered for a full position that was liquidated @ $86.50 on Friday. It was a small gain of 6.71% I will do it again when given the opportunity. I may even short it because I believe the market will be heading lower very soon and CAT will move in sympathy with the Dow.
You are quite correct he was a gentleman. I acknowledge him in my book as a personal hero and a truly great man. He also wrote "The Wall Street Gang" and "The Wall Street Jungle".
I also thank him for "putting us on the path so many years ago"... It was a much different time.
General Electric - Short This 'Grin Without A Cat' [View article]
You know when two people such as ourselves are passionate about an issue to which we are diametrically opposed, it really makes it exciting.
That's why I love the market.
Here is the point. If you are right and I am wrong, I'm OK with that because I have measures in place to protect me and I have the discipline to execute the plan.
For me it is just another trade. Kind of like a single hand in blackjack. The game goes on....
General Electric - Short This 'Grin Without A Cat' [View article]
I call your attention to the paragraph directly below the table of blocks. I apologize for not specifying with more particularity but I try to keep these articles under 1000 words.
If you read my article on May 8th Market Set To Head Lower, you should get a better feeling for my thesis.
Read it and if you still are uncertain then send a direct message to my in box and we can take it from there.
I hope this helps and if it does not, I am still willing to try.
General Electric - Short This 'Grin Without A Cat' [View article]
You are absolutely correct. GE could move much higher and that is why I am always careful. It is really more a matter of discipline than anything else. It is knowing that no matter what happens you will survive and prosper.
Adding to your position on a pullback is a great approach if you have the time and you are a long term investor. GE will have vicissitudes which I will try to cap on, but it is really hard work.
Gratian – Thanks. I write the articles with the hope that you and others will gain from them somehow.
You are absolutely correct; the pullback really has nothing to do with fundamentals. I consider the market a merchandising enterprise like any other. The difference is that when JCP or M conducts a sale they lower the price of their inventory, but when the DMM conducts a sale i.e. He has inventory he wants to unload he raises the price because it is rising prices that create demand. That said it is critical to know what phase of his merchandising cycle is being conducted.
Not to get religious but Ecclesiastes does say that there is a time and place for everything. That said, there is a time to be long and a time to be short. Being a long term investor is actually a very wise strategy.
2 examples:
On June 25, 2010 XOM traded a 25,589,700 share trade at $59.10 and by February 23, 2011 it hit $88.00. This is a 48% gain in less than 8 months. It also represents 1.5 billion dollars.
On February 25, 2009 WFT traded a block of 74,669,200 shares @ $9.70 and another block of 22,273,943 shares @ $9.71. WFT was as high as $28.34 on June 11 which represents a gain of 191% in less than 4 months.
These are gargantuan blocks. You can safely make two assumptions when you see trades similar to these:
1) A market heavyweight has taken a very important merchandising stance; and 2) Important price consequences must follow.
Being long and holding at this point is very prudent.
Freeport McMoRan: Once Bitten Twice Long [View article]
Roger that. You are correct in an overall strategic assessment, however you may be missing opportunity on the tactical. Of course if you are an investor it does not matter and if you are a trader it does.
Procter & Gamble - An Advance Most Likely [View article]
Who knows. I really have not given it much thought. I never think much about the intrigue but it is an interesting question.
The only reasonable conclusion I can come up with is that DMMs are only the gatekeepers for the even bigger money. As interesting as the exchange envelope is to people like us, Buffet and Soros et alii are way past it. The exchange is a smaller part of their world than it is of ours. The currency they trade is power. As Kissinger once said "power is the ultimate aphrodisiac"
Even in ancient times, Joseph was in charge of all Egyptian affairs, but he wasn't Pharaoh.
Wal-Mart: Second Wind Or Last Gasp? [View article]
Truebluealpha - If I were you I would sell WMT and buy it back on the pullback mostly out of general principal. You are correct about "rotten" I was paraphrasing. Mea Culpa.
Wal-Mart: Second Wind Or Last Gasp? [View article]
Bravely spoken Alessandro. Even though you could not muster the gumption to address me directly I appreciate the comment. I suppose you felt more comfortable posting a notice in the town square. I don’t blame you. Your comment has all of the elements of a strawman argument and would not withstand intelligent scrutiny. Do you even know what a strawman argument is? You probably should since it is basis of you debate strategy.
I am glad you at least acknowledge that I am "probably correct" inasmuch as the logic and facts are inescapable. I have a question for you: If there is as you say "too much evidence against that theory" then why did you not reference a tiny little shred of it? Talk about heresay.
I have never referred to it as a conspiracy, yet you refer to me as a "paranoid conspiracy theorist". Presuming to know another man’s mind is the faux pas of the ages. It sets the art of conversation back by about a thousand years.
BTW – anytime someone begins a statement with “Believe me…” it raises serious questions as to whether or not that is the prudent thing to do. It just sounds like more bloviating of hot air.
You keep investing with the “masses” as you call them and I will keep trading with the insiders. There is very little doubt as to whose side I prefer. There are many reasons but to specify with particularity to you would be like casting my pearls to …. well … you know the rest.
Finally, I am not trying to persuade anybody about anything. I am just saying think about it, because a word to the wise is usually sufficient. I suspect that by now most people realize that “there is something wrong in Denmark” (Hamlet in case you were wondering).
Incidentally, your comment was so baseless and personal (although I do not take it personally) it makes me wonder whose wing are you under.
Wal-Mart: Second Wind Or Last Gasp? [View article]
byloe n selhigh, I actually agree with you more than you might suspect. I really do not consider it a conspiracy as much as business as usual. Besides one can get lost in the intrigue.
It has been going on for so long and it is so well documented that the only thing required to find out more is an inquisitive nature. Ferdinand Pecora called them "banksters" a phrase he coined back in the 30's. In those days it was the likes of Percy Rockefeller, Mike Meehan, Clarence Dillon and their ilk.
The exchange conducts their affairs as would any of the three letter agencies in the intelligence community. It is a clandestine operation, mired in misdirection, disinformation and a filtering process that would challenge even the most gifted intelligence analyst. The rabbit hole is pretty deep. So to your point they absolutely do cover their tracks. But apparently they do not need to bother with that anymore.
Did you know that the SEC is exempt from the Freedom of Information Act. There must me a reason other than to uphold the public trust. That is like the mafia putting "To Serve and Protect" on each of their vehicles.
In my book I write that "the DMM is the undisputed, undefeated heavyweight champion of the exchange and he won't ever be defeated." You did not beat him, you were just on his side of the trade. That is all I ever try to do.
Wal-Mart: Second Wind Or Last Gasp? [View article]
This is no joke. I helps if you think of it as a merchandising enterprise instead of an auction.
If I were to assert to you that in order to be successful an architect has to conform to certain realities of his profession. No reasonable person would argue that point. He needs to know the materials he is working with and the nature of those materials, how they interact with one another, the principles of engineering etc. The market is no different. Whatever tools you use or develop to understand the market and indeed the very questions you ask about the market, depend on an accurate understanding of existing market realities.
In a nutshell, the reality is that there is an individual who is called a Designated Market Maker (DMM) who while at the same time he is allowed to invest for himself, is also given the incredibly sensitive task of setting the price for the stocks that are assigned to him. As a result this individual becomes a merchant who has the extraordinary good fortune to make whatever posture he takes in the market work to his advantage.
This explains how and why if market activity is viewed as anything other than a manipulation price action is difficult if not impossible to understand. Everything on the floor of the exchange happens on purpose including “Flash Crashes”. It is a well-orchestrated supremely executed merchandising operation surreptitious in nature.
There is much more to it but that's it for now....
Wal-Mart: Second Wind Or Last Gasp? [View article]
Let me guess...Um ... you guys are long.
How big is a rudder on a super tanker. Being strong at the decisive point is frequently based on the correct appraisal of the decisive point. The fulcrum point of a lever can be dwarfed by the object being moved.
Rather than engaging in endless debate which reaches no conclusions and teaches no lesson. Lets just see how it plays out. I am pleased to see your passionate disbelief because in the end you will not forget who said what and when.
Why Caterpillar Is Ridiculously Cheap [View article]
Eli Lilly: Short It Again [View article]
I also thank him for "putting us on the path so many years ago"... It was a much different time.
Exxon Mobil: Set Up To Move Higher [View article]
A friend of mine was despondent because he was recently stopped out on a short position he had in XOM, which of course I advised him against.
I sent him a list of ten puns, to try to cheer him up. Unfortunately, no pun in ten did.
Have a great day.
General Electric - Short This 'Grin Without A Cat' [View article]
That's why I love the market.
Here is the point. If you are right and I am wrong, I'm OK with that because I have measures in place to protect me and I have the discipline to execute the plan.
For me it is just another trade. Kind of like a single hand in blackjack. The game goes on....
General Electric - Short This 'Grin Without A Cat' [View article]
If you read my article on May 8th Market Set To Head Lower, you should get a better feeling for my thesis.
Read it and if you still are uncertain then send a direct message to my in box and we can take it from there.
I hope this helps and if it does not, I am still willing to try.
General Electric - Short This 'Grin Without A Cat' [View article]
Adding to your position on a pullback is a great approach if you have the time and you are a long term investor. GE will have vicissitudes which I will try to cap on, but it is really hard work.
PepsiCo: Saved By The Bell [View article]
You are absolutely correct; the pullback really has nothing to do with fundamentals. I consider the market a merchandising enterprise like any other. The difference is that when JCP or M conducts a sale they lower the price of their inventory, but when the DMM conducts a sale i.e. He has inventory he wants to unload he raises the price because it is rising prices that create demand. That said it is critical to know what phase of his merchandising cycle is being conducted.
Not to get religious but Ecclesiastes does say that there is a time and place for everything. That said, there is a time to be long and a time to be short. Being a long term investor is actually a very wise strategy.
2 examples:
On June 25, 2010 XOM traded a 25,589,700 share trade at $59.10 and by February 23, 2011 it hit $88.00. This is a 48% gain in less than 8 months. It also represents 1.5 billion dollars.
On February 25, 2009 WFT traded a block of 74,669,200 shares @ $9.70 and another block of 22,273,943 shares @ $9.71. WFT was as high as $28.34 on June 11 which represents a gain of 191% in less than 4 months.
These are gargantuan blocks. You can safely make two assumptions when you see trades similar to these:
1) A market heavyweight has taken a very important merchandising stance; and
2) Important price consequences must follow.
Being long and holding at this point is very prudent.
Best wishes and happy hunting to you as well
Gene
Freeport McMoRan: Once Bitten Twice Long [View article]
Happy trading.
Procter & Gamble - An Advance Most Likely [View article]
The only reasonable conclusion I can come up with is that DMMs are only the gatekeepers for the even bigger money. As interesting as the exchange envelope is to people like us, Buffet and Soros et alii are way past it. The exchange is a smaller part of their world than it is of ours. The currency they trade is power. As Kissinger once said "power is the ultimate aphrodisiac"
Even in ancient times, Joseph was in charge of all Egyptian affairs, but he wasn't Pharaoh.
Good question....
Wal-Mart: Second Wind Or Last Gasp? [View article]
I'm glad you enjoyed the post.
Have a great day.
Altria Group: A Short Of Sorts, Then Long [View article]
So many people make the mistake of thinking they need to be right. It is better to be prolific than perfect.
It is no more important to me than a single hand of blackjack. With that in mind you don't really need to be all that brave ...just sober.
Thanks for the comment.
Happy Trading.
Wal-Mart: Second Wind Or Last Gasp? [View article]
I am glad you at least acknowledge that I am "probably correct" inasmuch as the logic and facts are inescapable. I have a question for you: If there is as you say "too much evidence against that theory" then why did you not reference a tiny little shred of it? Talk about heresay.
I have never referred to it as a conspiracy, yet you refer to me as a "paranoid conspiracy theorist". Presuming to know another man’s mind is the faux pas of the ages. It sets the art of conversation back by about a thousand years.
BTW – anytime someone begins a statement with “Believe me…” it raises serious questions as to whether or not that is the prudent thing to do. It just sounds like more bloviating of hot air.
You keep investing with the “masses” as you call them and I will keep trading with the insiders. There is very little doubt as to whose side I prefer. There are many reasons but to specify with particularity to you would be like casting my pearls to …. well … you know the rest.
Finally, I am not trying to persuade anybody about anything. I am just saying think about it, because a word to the wise is usually sufficient. I suspect that by now most people realize that “there is something wrong in Denmark” (Hamlet in case you were wondering).
Incidentally, your comment was so baseless and personal (although I do not take it personally) it makes me wonder whose wing are you under.
Happy Trading?
Wal-Mart: Second Wind Or Last Gasp? [View article]
It has been going on for so long and it is so well documented that the only thing required to find out more is an inquisitive nature. Ferdinand Pecora called them "banksters" a phrase he coined back in the 30's. In those days it was the likes of Percy Rockefeller, Mike Meehan, Clarence Dillon and their ilk.
The exchange conducts their affairs as would any of the three letter agencies in the intelligence community. It is a clandestine operation, mired in misdirection, disinformation and a filtering process that would challenge even the most gifted intelligence analyst. The rabbit hole is pretty deep. So to your point they absolutely do cover their tracks. But apparently they do not need to bother with that anymore.
Did you know that the SEC is exempt from the Freedom of Information Act. There must me a reason other than to uphold the public trust. That is like the mafia putting "To Serve and Protect" on each of their vehicles.
In my book I write that "the DMM is the undisputed, undefeated heavyweight champion of the exchange and he won't ever be defeated." You did not beat him, you were just on his side of the trade. That is all I ever try to do.
BTW - 14% congratulations on a great trade.
Happy trading.
Wal-Mart: Second Wind Or Last Gasp? [View article]
If I were to assert to you that in order to be successful an architect has to conform to certain realities of his profession. No reasonable person would argue that point. He needs to know the materials he is working with and the nature of those materials, how they interact with one another, the principles of engineering etc. The market is no different. Whatever tools you use or develop to understand the market and indeed the very questions you ask about the market, depend on an accurate understanding of existing market realities.
In a nutshell, the reality is that there is an individual who is called a Designated Market Maker (DMM) who while at the same time he is allowed to invest for himself, is also given the incredibly sensitive task of setting the price for the stocks that are assigned to him. As a result this individual becomes a merchant who has the extraordinary good fortune to make whatever posture he takes in the market work to his advantage.
This explains how and why if market activity is viewed as anything other than a manipulation price action is difficult if not impossible to understand. Everything on the floor of the exchange happens on purpose including “Flash Crashes”. It is a well-orchestrated supremely executed merchandising operation surreptitious in nature.
There is much more to it but that's it for now....
Happy Trading.
Wal-Mart: Second Wind Or Last Gasp? [View article]
How big is a rudder on a super tanker. Being strong at the decisive point is frequently based on the correct appraisal of the decisive point. The fulcrum point of a lever can be dwarfed by the object being moved.
Rather than engaging in endless debate which reaches no conclusions and teaches no lesson. Lets just see how it plays out. I am pleased to see your passionate disbelief because in the end you will not forget who said what and when.
Happy Trading.