Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Gene Andrews  

View Gene Andrews' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Eli Lilly: Short It Again [View article]
    In any event , I certainly wish him well. Thank you for sharing...
    Jul 25, 2012. 11:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avon Products: Another Dead-Cat Bounce [View article]
    Thanks for the kind remarks. I will reconsider the block data and include it when time permits.

    With respect to the earnings: I suspect that the exchange will use the media to dissuade the public from establishing positions in AVP at these levels. I don't take positions based on earnings or the "new widget".

    For instance, look what they are doing with the Federal Reserve right now. Will Bernanke do this or will he do that? By the time he does something it is "already baked into the cake". The only reason that type of tactic is effective is because people really do not know what to do. News is the ultimate trump card in the exchanges repertoire to move markets quickly, but sentiment shifts with the wind.

    In the meantime somebody establishes a 15,652,202 share position @ $15.73 on July 20th. That is what I know for sure. That block tells me more about reasonable expectations than any vague statistic.

    I will stick to the position sizing model in the article and either way things will be just fine. You need to maintain equanimity.

    On a side note I put out an article on TEX that the Seeking Alpha Editors rejected. Check out what happens to TEX tomorrow. It was up big in the aftermarket session.

    That was the second article on TEX that I have written and both times it was for a 12% pop.

    You can see it on my personal blog:

    I regret that the Seeking Alpha readership was denied that opportunity. Even though I am doing quite well in this market, it is not an easy trick. Others have not been as fortunate and I was simply trying to help.

    Thanks again for the kind words....
    Jul 25, 2012. 11:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Altria Group: A Short Of Sorts, Then Long [View article]
    p_salerno1 -- You are correct about this position being in the negative. However, I really do not need to admit anything. I only need to state the facts. So here they are:

    MO was shorted on June 14th @ $33.36 for 1/4 of the entire position;
    Cost average was established @ $36.03 on July 20 for the remaining 3/4 of the position;

    This brings the average cost to $35.36 per share and the issue is trading at $35.55 at this moment. Therefore, the position is in the negative -0.56%. So on an absolute basis you are correct but on a relative basis this trade is far from over.

    BTW - I did get stopped out on F yesterday, for however much that pleases you. It is better to be prolific than perfect.

    Since you are "keeping track", know this: Out of the 25 closed positions I have published in this forum 22 winners and 3 losers. One more loser will not make or break me. It's just another trade.

    Those are the facts,

    Be well

    Jul 25, 2012. 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eli Lilly: Short It Again [View article]
    Options trade out of the CBOE and they are not quite as generous with historical data. For instance you can capture the data as a JPEG which is almost entirely useless.

    It is not a coincidence that it moves away from you just as your order hits the floor. I always try to think of it as doing whatever I can to help him achieve his objectives. That is when you get filled. I would never be so presumptuous as to expect to "beat" him. You never will, but you can get on his side of the trade.

    Congrats on the trade!
    Jul 24, 2012. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eli Lilly: Short It Again [View article]
    Does Rick Duffay trade? Do you know him? Does he have deep knowledge of his father's concepts. If he does I would love to speak with him. It is a really long story...
    Jul 24, 2012. 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eli Lilly: Short It Again [View article]
    Depending on circumstances I might be the guy who is willing to sell those put options to you. My overall view on LLY is bullish. The pullback is short term and merely serves to allow the DMM to replenish his inventory.
    Jul 24, 2012. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Terex Corp. - For A Few Dollars More [View article]
    Since my In-Box is non-functional there is no other way to announce price targets being triggered.

    That Said:

    TEX hit our cost average price of $14.26 today for a full position.
    Jul 23, 2012. 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eli Lilly: Short It Again [View article]
    You are quite correct he was a gentleman. I acknowledge him in my book as a personal hero and a truly great man. He also wrote "The Wall Street Gang" and "The Wall Street Jungle".

    I also thank him for "putting us on the path so many years ago"... It was a much different time.
    Jul 23, 2012. 09:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Eli Lilly: Short It Again [View article]
    Your question is very thought provoking. Before I can answer it I want to clarify that sometimes the same information can have different meanings to different people or even different meanings to the same person at different times. For instance: hearing footsteps behind you at 12 noon on wall street would be interpreted much differently than hearing footsteps behind you on a deserted ally at midnight.

    That said, nomenclature can be an aid or a hindrance depending on whether everyone is operating on the same assumptions. For instance, I do not view the market as an auction market; I view it as a merchandising enterprise. To me this is “fundamental”. Yet there are many who would vociferously debate this supremely important market reality.

    The primary difference is that in an auction market demand is the driving force behind rising prices but in the stock market it is rising prices that create demand. This point cannot be overemphasized. There are many competing hypotheses but the single most important truth with regard to the stock market is: Rising Prices Create Demand. Unfortunately, most (but not all) investors believe that demand is the driving force behind rising prices and heavy selling drives prices down. This explains why more often than not, they find themselves on the wrong side of the trade.

    If I were to assert to you that in order to be successful an architect has to conform to certain realities of his profession. No reasonable person would argue that point. He needs to know the materials he is working with and the nature of those materials, how they interact with one another, the principles of engineering etc. The market is no different. Whatever tools you use or develop to understand the market and indeed the very questions you ask about the market, depend on an accurate understanding of existing market realities.

    In a nutshell, the reality is that there is an individual who is called a Designated Market Maker (DMM) who while at the same time he is allowed to invest for himself, is also given the incredibly sensitive task of setting the price for the stocks that are assigned to him. As a result this individual becomes a merchant who has the extraordinary good fortune to make whatever posture he takes in the market work to his advantage.

    Therefore, there are inventory objectives for the Designated Market Maker in this issue. At the moment, I believe he is short and will need to lower the price in order to cover his short positions. At what price points he will do it is at his sole discretion. You need to be watchful, diligent, dynamic and disciplined.

    As I stated in some of my earlier commentary, I do not put much emphasis on conventional fundamentals of an issue I plan to liquidate in a matter of days. The only possible exception is that I would not take a position in any company I suspected was on the verge of bankruptcy. PCX immediately comes to mind.

    There is much more to it but I do not have the time right now or the space right here.

    I hope this helps...
    Jul 22, 2012. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Altria Group: A Short Of Sorts, Then Long [View article]
    If this trade moves against me (and it might) I will at least have had the enjoyment of your good humor and wit. That was funny. Thank you.

    BTW - I was actually glad to see MO trigger the cost average for scaling in. Thus far, out of all of the positions I have written articles about in this forum 24 have closed. At the moment the score is 22 winners and 2 losers.

    The first two that closed were losers. You can't imagine how hard it was to accept the fact that my first two calls were losers. It had an educative effect on my ego for keeping it in check.

    Not taking anything too seriously if you know what I mean....
    Jul 22, 2012. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eli Lilly: Short It Again [View article]
    My Seeking Alpha IN-BOX is non functional. Any of you trying to contact me directly will need to go to my SUB~ROSA email through my Profile Page (assuming that works).
    Jul 21, 2012. 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eli Lilly: Short It Again [View article]
    It isn't really safer but it is always best to implement whatever strategy one is most comfortable executing. You will be more successful when your mind is not clouded with uncertainty.

    That said, there are so many possible scenarios in this trade it is like asking someone how many ways can you cook chicken. Are we talking Italian, Mexican, Chinese or some other cuisine. Fried, baked or barbecued.

    There is risk in every trade (without exception). The only thing we as traders truly have in place to protect us is our own discipline to execute our exits when a stock has moved against us.

    It is a fairly simple concept but difficult to do when emotions are in peak state.
    Jul 21, 2012. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eli Lilly: Short It Again [View article]
    You are more than welcome.
    Jul 20, 2012. 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eli Lilly: Short It Again [View article]
    maven pharm - The following is not intended as an argument to attempt to prove you wrong. I actually quite agree with you when taking a long term view. I am only intending to illuminate an opportunity and how to seize that opportunity.

    Every long term advance has a dip, just as every long term decline has a bounce. I believe I articulated that my overall view for LLY was bullish. That said, if you are fearful of shorting, you could buy it on the pullback because it will pullback. I would simply like to capitalize on the action.

    I think it is fair to say that shorting is not only tactical but it is essential in maintaining a market neutral strategy. That is what I do, albeit with a slight bias to whatever I believe is imminent.

    I am a trader and as such I have little interest in an issue that I plan to liquidate in a matter of days.
    Jul 20, 2012. 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Altria Group: A Short Of Sorts, Then Long [View article]
    MO hit our cost average price of $36.03 today. Full position @ $35.36.
    Jul 20, 2012. 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment