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Gene Andrews  

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  • Northeast Utilities: Short Setup In Play [View article]
    There is considerable difference between the commander who sits at a desk far removed from the battlefield as opposed to a commander who has "blood on his hands" from engagements. The former has a theoretical experience and the latter has an empirical experience. There is a huge distinction between seeing something from afar vs. up close and personal. You hit the nail squarely on the head.

    I have little doubt that if some of the market analysts traded or reported their own trading performance they would probably lose some credibility.

    Even though I take issue with how arbitrary SA editors can be at times, it can still be a great forum as long as I don't take it personally. Like anything else in life, I just try to evaluate the point of diminished returns and put forth less and less time and attention from that point.

    Coincidentally, upon reflection I will be putting out another short call on LLY. Your comment yesterday inspired me to do it. So thank you. I'm going to try to get it out this morning but being quick about it in this form is difficult at times.

    Be well
    Jul 20, 2012. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northeast Utilities: Short Setup In Play [View article]
    I am waiting for NU to hit $40.77 at which point it will be a full position. Hopefully in the next day or so.

    I bailed on LLY @ $40.12 on June 1. That was always intended as short term situation. I saw what I suspected was a short and so I went short and I covered when I saw the cover. I think of it more as a merchandising cycle and whether the "smart money" is distributing or accumulating. I care very little about the fundamentals of a company I plan to liquidate in a matter of days.

    Theoretically I like to do between 15 and 30 trades per day. That allows you to rotate the capital about 5 times per month. This forum does not provide the real-time ability to make that many recommendations. Life would be pretty miserable writing that many articles. I have scaled back considerably on the articles. Just not enough time. If you send me an email address I will send my spreadsheet which tracks all of the positions I mention on SA.
    Jul 19, 2012. 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney: Short The Mouse Trap [View article]
    Just a quick note: DIS hit our cost average price today and thus a full position.
    Jul 17, 2012. 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abbott Laboratories Is A Short [View article]
    Just a quick note: ABT hit our target price for the short.
    Jul 17, 2012. 07:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long Play Of The Day: Supervalu [View article]
    The market has been so full of high probability trades that I really have not paid much attention to SVU. I have not seen anything compelling enough to enter another position...but then again I really have not looked. Like I said there are many, many, many better trades right now.
    Jul 16, 2012. 07:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abbott Laboratories Is A Short [View article]
    He probably got it from Sun Tzu's Art of War which I referenced in the article.

    "Use an attack to exploit a victory, never use an attack to rescue a defeat."
    Jul 11, 2012. 10:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abbott Laboratories Is A Short [View article]
    I thought I covered the Dividend issue. ABT is a single position and there are other shorting candidates. This is just one of them. I will take a quick 5% anywhere anytime. The risk is not unlimited. It is clearly defined. It does however require discipline to execute which is the basis for establishing and maintaining positive control. That is a very sticky situation for some people.

    You make some valid points and I am in agreement with most all of them except luck. I do not believe in luck but I do believe in chance and so it must be quantified.
    Jul 11, 2012. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abbott Laboratories Is A Short [View article]
    Wow! I have not heard anyone refer to them as Specialists for a long time. Frankly, most people are completely unaware that they even exist. It is amazing to me. That said, it is very unlikely that they would incorporate his objectives into their own market strategies. Anything that has parts has structure that relates each of those parts to one another and the Specialist is the hub on the floor of the exchange.

    I can potentially see Specialists losing large sums in their trading account while making even larger sums in their segregated investment accounts. Since the SEC is now exempt form the Freedom of Information Act commoners such as ourselves can only speculate as to what they are doing.

    Yes I have written a book and there were others before me. I acknowledge Richard Ney as a personal hero in my book. He was a really good man. My strategy which I call SUB~ROSA seems more long overdue than timely. I have been working on it for a very long time. Its effectiveness is especially pleasing to me. Out of the recommendation in the Seeking Alpha forum I have been stopped out twice and closed twenty positions in the positive. Currently there are 15 open positions. I can send you a copy of my excel spreadsheet if you would like.

    Seeking Alpha does not allow me to attach anything in their mail system so send me an email gene@subrosacapital.com.
    Jul 11, 2012. 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abbott Laboratories Is A Short [View article]
    pharmguy - You make a valid compelling point. I also expect that ABT will be up big by years end. However, I expect it will pullback first at which point the DMM will load up on inventory. The split is the impetus whereby they will get investors to buy in at these levels.

    They will short, cover and re-accumulate. It is a cycle which has some nice opportunity for a trader. The real driver of price is the inventory objectives of the DMM. If he is low on inventory he will short and lower the price in order to accumulate. If he is heavy with inventory he will raise the price and distribute. My thesis is that it is rising prices that create demand as opposed to demand being the driver of price.

    Like I say it is a merchandising enterprise. I know it must seem peculiar but given enough reflection it is the only thing that makes sense.
    Jul 11, 2012. 12:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abbott Laboratories Is A Short [View article]
    If Ecclesiastes is correct and there is a time for everything under the sun, that probably includes shorting ABT. It is more a question of when than if.

    I tried to point that out by illustrating that AAPL would have been a good short in April.
    Jul 10, 2012. 08:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abbott Laboratories Is A Short [View article]
    I quite agree. If ABT was a ballplayer it would be playing today. (The all-star game is being played today.) It is a truly excellent stock. But that is not my point. I believe it is going to have a pullback that can be capitalized on by traders. That is the long and short of it (no pun intended).

    AAPL is also an excellent stock. In fact, it is the king of the blue chips. However, it did pulled back as well, after trading some unusually large blocks @ $626 on April 11.

    They all move up and they all move down, even ABT.

    Thanks for the insight...
    Jul 10, 2012. 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abbott Laboratories Is A Short [View article]
    The individual should never be thinking in terms of survival. You should be thinking in terms of thriving. You need to know that you have measures in place to protect you. Once you have the strength that comes from knowing you are protected, each trade becomes no more significant than a single hand in blackjack. So if you actually have a successful strategy that does not depend on luck, you should feel encouraged. Incidentally, I do not believe in luck but I do believe in chance and chance must be quantified. You also need to properly position size. I cannot emphasize that point enough.

    Preservation of capital is the first economic priority, Without the proper measures and countermeasures for money management being right doesn't matter and being wrong is catastrophic.
    Jul 10, 2012. 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abbott Laboratories Is A Short [View article]
    Not to worry, the weakness in ABT will only be short term. It is a merchandising cycle. The merchant is the DMM. He has a market account that he uses to "maintain a fair and orderly market" and he has segregated investment accounts that he trades on his own behalf.

    You only need to know if he is (distributing/selling short) or (accumulating /covering short) positions. The concept is actually fairly simple. It is the deciphering and execution which is difficult.

    You should read my book. That is not a shameless plug just a fact. If you read it I could help you much more because you would know to what I'm referring. No one else is even talking about it. But you know that already....

    Jul 10, 2012. 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart: Second Wind Or Last Gasp? [View article]
    Truebluealpha - Nothing has really changed which would cause me to abandon the original position. I am still looking to cost average at $72.44 and stop out at $75.28. Obviously it is up to the individual to determine for himself as to what an acceptable variance is for establishing the cost average. I will maintain the discipline and hold out for my price target.

    As you very astutely point out one should always reassess their viewpoint. WMT serves as a classic example of how difficult it is to determine the wholesale and retail price levels of any issue.

    Therefore, once the cost average is established, I would adjust my exit price at or near the entry point of the first position which in this case is approximately $68.00.
    Jul 8, 2012. 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halliburton: Buy And Hold My Pal Hal [View article]
    Here is some more upside for you. There will still be others who sometime in the distant future, when you are long gone will say "God Bless Mr. Hansen, he was such a good man".
    Jul 1, 2012. 10:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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