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Gene Chan, CFA

 
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  • Amazon.com Won't Back Down, And Neither Should Its Shareholders [View article]
    Paulo - I look forward to the article. My back of the napkin math actually shows that Amazon will run into cashflow issues in the near term.

    But I agree that they won't go Chapter 11 right away... Obviously they'll try issue more debt first or (if they're smart) raise money with a stock offering. So it'll be a long road down, with real liquidity problems arising after rating agencies start downgrading their debt, thus raising Amazon's borrowing costs.
    Nov 21 01:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The $800M Secret The BlackBerry Shorts Don't Want You To Know About [View article]
    Good point. They mentioned "fixed royalty payment" so it probably is a flat fee agreed when they had the old device volume, and BlackBerry just amortizes the total flat fee across the actual devices sold.

    It could also be multiple separate deals that were renegotiated and arranged to expire in Nov.

    It doesn't matter that much though - we know the lump sum is 800M, which line it comes from is an accounting artifact and has no bearing on the business.
    Nov 18 04:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The $800M Secret The BlackBerry Shorts Don't Want You To Know About [View article]
    The royalties are typically paid on a per-device basis so it would not be surprising for a big part of it to be COGS. Although some of it could be operating expense if they're licensing some tech for general operations (e.g. running the NOC servers). There's nothing that says the entire 200M/Q needs to come from a single line item.
    Nov 18 03:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The $800M Secret The BlackBerry Shorts Don't Want You To Know About [View article]
    I was just about to write about the $800M of savings in an article called "BlackBerry's Secret Sauce" - thanks for getting it there first, saved me some troubles!

    It's interesting that BlackBerry brought up these 800M savings early in the year, and then never mentioned it again. It's as if they're doing this on purpose. And yet you can't fault them for not disclosing material information. It's not their fault that we have collective amnesia.

    The street fell right into it, setting up for a huge surprise - Chen is probably laughing his head off in his corner office.
    Nov 18 02:19 PM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Canadian Solar Is A Star Performer [View article]
    Canadian Solar is incorporated in Ontario, Canada, and their actual equity is listed on NASDAQ. This is unlike the other Chinese solar companies who are listed through an intermediary like Cayman Islands and it's often an ADR.

    CSIQ has manufacturing in China, true, but that's not very different from many US corps with global footprint. What matter is they will have better governance as a Canadian company, and the CEO is also a Canadian citizen, which means it is straightforward to sue if things ever go wrong. This is not a typical Chinese company that can run away and disappear with your money overnight.

    IMO it should trade at multiples similar to the US peers.
    Nov 18 01:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did BlackBerry Sell 200,000 Passports Or A Million? [View article]
    Guys, it has been refuted. BlackBerry has been manufacturing new units throughout. You can see build dates and serial numbers:

    http://bit.ly/1yLfFWU
    Oct 17 06:39 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did BlackBerry Sell 200,000 Passports Or A Million? [View article]
    Wow KIA, how far would you go to fabricate a lie?

    You can see the build dates on the devices themselves. And they vary from Sept 9 to as late as Oct 8th. And the device built on Oct 8th was shipped on Oct 15th.

    So the claim that they have only sold the initial inventory is a lie. Also guess what, the difference in serial numbers between the device on launch date and the one shipped on Oct 15th is around 400,000.
    Oct 17 05:23 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frannie Folly [View article]
    A Conservator's goal is to bring a company back to financial health.

    A Receivor's goal is to ensure orderly liquidation and distribution of assets in the event of a bankruptcy.

    I thought you are a "professor"?
    Oct 3 01:00 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Passport: Top Or Flop? [View article]
    Passport is currently sold out on Amazon.com (http://amzn.to/Y8bG6A), as well as USA, Canada, UK, and Germany ShopBlackBerry.com websites.
    Sep 25 12:26 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The $1 Billion CFO Quiz And Other Developments [View article]
    They are using LIBOR and it's generally around 0.50% nowadays. So 0.625% over LIBOR is still dirt cheap - won't be a problem for AMZN unless they get downgraded.

    http://bit.ly/1oQLnsI
    Sep 15 02:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The $1 Billion CFO Quiz And Other Developments [View article]
    Why - shorts doing alright actually. AMZN down almost 20% YTD.

    And AMZN actually underperformed S&P by 25% over the last 3 years. AMZN short position has been a very good hedge for anyone with a large long portfolio of other stocks.
    Sep 15 11:17 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Fannie Mae: Unpacking The Motions For Summary Judgment [View article]
    Very informative article. Epic work.
    Sep 8 10:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon's Appstore Could Become As Big As Google Play [View article]
    That's some voodoo math. Typical for an AMZN holder.
    Sep 4 02:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Competitive Advantage Quantified [View article]
    Wow that's brutal. I thought it was $1.00 per order, but it's actually per item.
    Jun 2 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Competitive Advantage Quantified [View article]
    As other commentors have said, this article is useless without tying the analysis back to price.

    I think if you add any rigor to this exercise, you'll find that AMZN is already absurdly overvalued despite all of the advantages you mentioned (i.e. it is priced for more than perfection).
    Jun 1 11:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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