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Gene Chan, CFA  

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  • Accelerate Diagnostics' Big Lie Exposed By SEC - $1.00 Target Within 18 Months [View article]
    "Stay tuned for Part 2, in which we dissect the new set of lies from AXDX in its dishonest portrayal of the competitive landscape, and how the company mischaracterizes product it allegedly will bring to market some day in the future."

    The stock is rising on nothing but hot air again... Looking forward to part 2 of your article to give speculators a dose of reality. Thanks
    Jun 9, 2015. 02:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Amazon Will Do With New Capital Ammunition [View article]
    They are guiding growth to low teens next quarter. How low will it have to get before it no longer counts as "explosive"? Serious question.

    We have a lot of other companies with a larger "base" that grow at around these rates, but trade at much better valuation.
    Apr 28, 2015. 02:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Amazon Will Do With New Capital Ammunition [View article]
    Exactly my point. Selling shares will be just about the best move Amazon can make right now as that's their most valuable asset.

    Everything else is non-valuable assets made up of low-margin or negative-margin business. Even AWS margin is declining very quickly if you compared to last year, and will continue to decline as cloud becomes commodotized.
    Apr 28, 2015. 11:37 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Amazon Will Do With New Capital Ammunition [View article]
    Agree cash flow is poor if you include capital lease obligations. If you include required CapEx to maintain AWS/buy content etc you have negative which is reflected in the negative net income.

    But they'll have LOTS of ammo if they decide to sell shares on a secondary offer. Their overvalued shares are pretty much the greatest asset they have. It would be a smart move for building cash.
    Apr 28, 2015. 11:12 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  •'s AWS Is Much More Valuable Than We Thought [View article]
    The servers have very high depreciation and typically become obsolete every 3 years. So AWS has a ton of CapEx just to maintain status quo, not to mention growth.

    The number you're very excited about excludes stock compensation (which is a very large part of Amazon's package) and excludes the bare minimum CapEx. And you yourself admitted that growth is slowing, which means it'll no longer grow at 50% again next year. So what's left to be excited about?
    Apr 23, 2015. 08:37 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix jumps 12.7% on strong subscription growth [View news story]
    Gary J already sold... See comments from this thread:

    Or he pretended to... LOL. Whichever lie looks good at the moment. Truth is he probably can't afford a share unless he doesn't eat for a week.
    Apr 15, 2015. 08:15 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Think Amazon Is OverPriced Do Not Think Of Buying Facebook [View article]
    The fact that AMZN bulls have to go through this kind of mental gymnastics to justify their position makes it very likely that the stock has reached its peak valuation.
    Mar 28, 2015. 12:31 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry's Chen: Guidance Increasingly At Odds With Reality [View article]
    The 115M gain from Rockstar sale was offset by 58M loss in restructuring costs and the 50M loss in debenture revaluation. That's why GAAP and non-GAAP were so close.

    If you remove all 3 non-operating items, they have a comfortable operating income, contrary to what the author is suggesting.
    Mar 27, 2015. 12:48 PM | 30 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon Is Still Cheap [View article]
    Was talking to TCG, not you. Desperate for attention much?
    Mar 15, 2015. 05:27 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon Is Still Cheap [View article]
    It's OK TCG... Gary is so blinded by AMZN that he doesn't understand there are better performing assets out there... LOL pity the poor soul.
    Mar 15, 2015. 05:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Take The Money And Run [View article]
    All other metrics had to deterioriate in order for Amazon to squeeze out a little profit this quarter. This proves that they cannot make money and grow at the same time.

    And their growth is already slowing to pedestrian level.

    With slow growth, there's no reason to trade at a better valuation than Walmart, which, at 18x P/E, means Amazon will trade at around 46 bucks even if you go by the 2016 EPS estimates.
    Feb 2, 2015. 01:24 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon +8%; EPS beat, margin gains overshadow revenue softness [View news story]

    Free cash flow was much less than that. From the press release:

    "Free cash flow decreased to $1.95 billion for the trailing twelve months, compared with $2.03 billion for the trailing twelve months ended December 31, 2013."

    And this doesn't even take into account their capital lease commitments.
    Jan 29, 2015. 05:45 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon, Costco And The Wisdom Of Crowds [View article]
    How can you look at the call options only, without considering the puts?

    If you did same analysis on puts, you'll see that AMZN puts are also consistently priced higher than COST puts. The reason for the premium is the underlying volatility of their respective equity, not evidence of investor optimism.

    This doesn't falsify the Wisdom of the Crowds theory, but it certainly debunks your article's application of it.
    Jan 23, 2015. 04:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding How Amazon's Use Of Capital Leases Overstates Its Cash Flow Metrics [View article]
    OK, no disagreement there.
    Dec 11, 2014. 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding How Amazon's Use Of Capital Leases Overstates Its Cash Flow Metrics [View article]
    Again, the point is to show that FCF is not a good number to gauge the economic health of companies with lots of capital leases such as Amazon, yet Amazon keeps telling investors to focus on FCF. So I repeat again, the point of this article is to discredit Amazon's efforts at misdirection.
    Dec 11, 2014. 10:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment