Gene Inger

WSJ Weighs in on Peter Schiff

typo correction.. we reversed bullish to bearish from late 1999-early 2000; bullish from 2002 (not 2006) through 2006 (not 2007); and then warned to sell into expected Spring and Summer rallies of 2007; with the 'epic debacle' then coming. Incidentally; technical bearish deviations were occurring all the while the Goldilocks and 'always a bull market somewhere' crowds were crowing how wonderful everything was; while we revealed the insolvency of major banks that to this day nobody wants to actually acknowledge; as if it was fringe analysis. This month was projected to be a 'brick wall resistance' at the start then down, bounce, and fail. February should flail then fail too.

cheers to those who have been realistic, and in favor of sensible trading too!

gene
gene inger
ingerletter.com

WSJ Weighs in on Peter Schiff

Peter has maintained a similar stance to our own; with a big exception. That was a belief (not taking anything away from his work) that the economy was so soft, that 'inflation' related to a plunging Dollar or anything of the sort, was valid in the ultimate term; but extremely premature for 2008 or 2009 for that matter. It is pertinent because only if one expects an early recovery (and we don't having indicated this as an 'epic debacle' since February of 2007 warning to sell into a series of remaining rallies while underlying distribution prevailed) .. would one be looking for inflation anytime soon. For that reason; and the also important (year-long) view that 'decoupling was a myth', we've been relatively optimistic (not pessimistic) on the Dollar for over 8 months; at the same time as we called for crashes in the Asian submerging markets too. May not have excited everyone; but the safest investment for 2 years now has been suggested to be cash or equivalents; and not chasing for bullish markets elsewhere that we didn't think existed. However, the macro economic view is generally shared (and has been); with the exception that we were bulls from the Fall of 2006 through the end of 2007. To wit: flexible realists. I don't want to take anything away from those who have had publicity on this area; but suffice to say; 'circling the wagons' and just leaving it thusly for the past two years has been a fine approach, rather than chasing yield or other approaches. Nevertheless kudos to Peter for his similar overall macro view.

gene inger
ingerletter.com