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  • TomTom's Lofty Valuation Is More Than Justified Following Huge Opportunities In Telematics And Fitness [View article]
    TomTom is trying
    To
    Lead in that with NDS. Also the auto industry will
    Always dual source - it is too much of a risk not to.
    Jun 1, 2015. 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TomTom's Lofty Valuation Is More Than Justified Following Huge Opportunities In Telematics And Fitness [View article]
    They could easily triple the stock price by selling their map to one of the losing consortiums if they choose to. The issue is whether they want to or see more value creation potential over the next few years that what Nokia here transacts at - which is also possible. Imagine if the entire auto industry in a few years time needs your software
    Jun 1, 2015. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TomTom's Lofty Valuation Is More Than Justified Following Huge Opportunities In Telematics And Fitness [View article]
    Nope as would
    Mean two
    Other consortiums hungry for a mapping asset. The key dynamic here is whether tomtom management are willing to sell out or not
    Jun 1, 2015. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TomTom's Lofty Valuation Is More Than Justified Following Huge Opportunities In Telematics And Fitness [View article]
    The irony even on that front is the consumer business is actually growing and I think it alone is a better business than people give it credit for. If Tomtom new product lines were a Silicon Valley start up it would probably be worth a lot more !
    May 31, 2015. 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TomTom's Lofty Valuation Is More Than Justified Following Huge Opportunities In Telematics And Fitness [View article]
    Hey there. Followed company for about ten years and took a big interest in mapping assets as strategic for Internet of things and autos a few years ago
    May 30, 2015. 06:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TomTom's Lofty Valuation Is More Than Justified Following Huge Opportunities In Telematics And Fitness [View article]
    Have not heard rumors of UBeR at $5.6bn edelstijn ? That would be huge
    May 30, 2015. 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TomTom's Lofty Valuation Is More Than Justified Following Huge Opportunities In Telematics And Fitness [View article]
    I think it would be very for TomTOm to triple their stock price by getting value for the map in line with the e4bn+ being mentioned. It is just whether they want to do so, that is the question. It might well be that is what is behind Apple renewing their license at this time..
    May 30, 2015. 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TomTom's Lofty Valuation Is More Than Justified Following Huge Opportunities In Telematics And Fitness [View article]
    It could be like cable assets four years ago when m and a started. Today assets are trading hands at much higher values than four years ago. Could be the case with maps 2-3 years out.
    May 30, 2015. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TomTom's Lofty Valuation Is More Than Justified Following Huge Opportunities In Telematics And Fitness [View article]
    It is obvious there are numberless buyers for these assets. The issue in my mind is whether or not management at Tomtom are willing to sell or whether they would rather keep hold of the asset as see a lot of value being created over the next few years. They know they are sitting on the Crown Jewels of the tech world.
    May 30, 2015. 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TomTom's Lofty Valuation Is More Than Justified Following Huge Opportunities In Telematics And Fitness [View article]
    Hey there.. The blind spot is there as there is just very little knowledge around
    Mapping assets as they have been buried in two struggling hardware companies until recently - it is also a very niche space. Commentary around these assets is usually very ill informed
    May 30, 2015. 12:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TomTom's Lofty Valuation Is More Than Justified Following Huge Opportunities In Telematics And Fitness [View article]
    Thanks for the article.

    I agree that P/E is not the way to look at this business as 1) Transition means likely see huge explosion in earnings going forward driven by Consumer + Telematics (growing at 30%+ at 30% EBIT margins), Licensing (12% growth last quarter) and the major one Autos (If revenues approximate 2014 order back log in a few years time that is E130m extra revenues at probably 70%+ Gross Margins, let alone if Order Back log growth takes another leg higher).

    The asset read across is now very obvious given the Nokia HERE transaction. THe read across to TomTom (if HERE is sold at E3.6bn) implies a valuation of TomTom as around e30. Even if probability weight that number it is E20. The reason there is such a discrepancy is a total lack of understanding / knowledge about this space and how to think about Tom2 versus here. Tom2 is actually a better technological asset given Real Time Map making + best in class traffic.

    At the current stock price given E2.2bn market cap can be covered by Consumer (E800m)+ Telematics (e800M) + Cash (100m) = 1/2 Traffic value (assume worth e1bn vs Inrix at $500m, Waze $1.2bn) then it amazingly implies the Maps is effectively in there for free versu Nokia HERE at rumored $4bn. It is a remarkable value situation
    May 29, 2015. 12:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Uber bids up to $3B for Nokia's HERE unit [View news story]
    This is their first bid..they know they are going into a bidding war against the biggest companies in the world like the german auto makers, baidu. They aren't going to show their full hand straight away
    May 7, 2015. 08:07 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's HERE Sale: Apple, Facebook, Alibaba Join List Of Potential Suitors [View article]
    ddn123..thanks for your post

    Can you pls elaborate on below as not clear on the last part ie. necessity of map for MSFT mobile first cloud strategy..

    ''So expect Microsoft to buy Here for $9 billion. They may break even on the deal. Without a mapping service they cannot effectively control their mobile first cloud first strategy. '''

    I think HERE is on its way to being a 20% margin business, probably by 2016..given R&D/ Sales is over 50%, which is way more than other mapping peer (Tom2) a lot of scope to take out costs + the power of operational leverage. Hence on about E1.15bn revenue base that is about E220- E240m of EBIT on a business with no debt. You could float it on the NAsdaq given its a play on autonomous cars at a huge price especially when consider Mobileye is on 40x sales..as such if don't get a e 4- 6bn+ price, they better off restructuring it for another year and floating it h1 2016 ..also one more year in the stock market, the investment community will get understanding of these assets much better.

    I don't think above will happen as I suspect given the list of rumoured corporate and PE buyers, the asset will get multiple bids
    Apr 24, 2015. 03:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TomTom: Investors Are Misguided [View article]
    The point that TT maps is 1/9 of Nokia HERE is simply not true. They have similar scale and similar technologies (Navigation + Maps of most of the world + Traffic)..the difference is perhaps in the revenues that TomTOm gets from licensing + autos vs HERE, however TT has built businesses on top of their core mapping technology whilst HERE went down a licensing route. In fact they have similar revenue bases..Also if look at when these assets last traded hands teleatlas went for about 2/3 the value of navteq.

    If a strategic buyer buys Nokia HERe, it is not an IRR type deal but they want the asset and can use the revenues it generates to offset the costs of maintaining and developing the asset (R&D etc). Similar case with TT

    In terms of Nokia hERE the 15% revenue growth rate referred to was in Q4 2014 not FY 2014..consensus was looking for 6% and they did 15% as demand for mapping is accelerating. TT themselves did E220m auto orders in 2014 which was a book to bill of 2x.

    If Nokia HERe goes for E4- 6bn..that would be 4 to 6 fold more than analysts thought Nokia Here was worth on april 10th before the news broke. If that were the case, it would be impossible not to make a similar read across to TomTom as it would imply the market and analysts are so bad at valuing these assets they got NOKIA here wrong by 4 to 6 times. Also I suspect the market will see through the spurious argument that TT is 1/9 size of Nokia HERE (simply not true on scale of the asset or the revenue base both technologes generate) and recognise that it is a technology footprint the buyers are after. At that point TomTom goes up a huge amount.

    Also the competitive tension in the market becomes very real as TT is the last remaining map technology asset and someone will want them.

    The PND story is old hat and people have been broking that for the last 100% in the stock price..it makes its reappearance every so often. The real dynamic is the fact TT is likely to own the last remaining map asset at a time of potential consolidation..
    Apr 20, 2015. 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia And Alcatel-Lucent: What Will The Future Hold? [View article]
    Alcatel earned only 65m from patents. Combined they own and control the most valuable patent portfolio in wireless technologies globally ... Also hEre I think gets sold at much higher valuations than people think. Up until April 10 most analyst had here in for e1bn in their sotp... They likely will be v wrong on this
    Apr 19, 2015. 02:21 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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