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Geoff Abbott

 
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  • Greenlight Capital Re - A Mini-Berkshire In The Making? [View article]
    Maybe next time read the filings yourself and do some calculations. I agree with your thesis on the stock, but you shouldn't rely on random websites. Do your own work.
    May 4, 2012. 06:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway Shares Are Absurdly Cheap [View article]
    Your share count is double what it should be. Check the company's filings. Class A shares PLUS Class A equivalent Class B shares total 1.65 million, not 3.3 million.

    Again, do your homework before you jump to conclusions. If we're wrong about our analysis, we want to know, but we'd appreciate if our critics would give their work the same thought and care that we give ours.
    Jun 28, 2011. 12:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway Shares Are Absurdly Cheap [View article]
    Read the entire annual report and letter to shareholders. Better yet, read several years of annual reports and letters to shareholders. Don't spend 10 minutes making random calculations and conclude that our numbers are way off.

    Do some real analysis like we have, and then share your conclusions.
    Jun 28, 2011. 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway Shares Are Absurdly Cheap [View article]
    Look at Buffett's most recent letter to shareholders. All the info is there. Your calculation doesn't factor the many billions of dollars of equities that BRK owns.
    Jun 27, 2011. 08:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Needs to Pay a Big Special Dividend or Buy Back Stock [View article]
    Splits don't boost the value of stocks. If I traded you 10 $10s for a $100 bill, would you feel richer? If not, why would you feel good about a share split? Has Warren Buffett's refusal to split BRK.A shares hindered his stock's appreciation?

    There's a very real difference between price and value, and anyone who buys a stock because it has been split is confused about this all-important distinction.
    Jun 27, 2011. 05:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One Stock: Perelman's Conglomeration Isn't Thrilling, But Too Cheap to Resist [View article]
    We want to share an update on our MFW investment.

    We got some really valuable feedback on this interview. In light of the feedback, we reconsidered and changed our investment thesis. We have recently exited the MFW position.

    Though we still believe the stock could go much, much higher, we no longer have strong conviction that it will go higher. Though that’s a subtle distinction for most, it’s a critical one for us.

    The main reason we share investment ideas is to get feedback on them. If we're wrong, we want to know it, and we've found that sharing ideas publicly is the best way to evaluate the relative strength of varying investment opinions. Thanks to those who gave us feedback on this name.
    May 25, 2011. 02:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com No Longer Growing, Despite Revenue Increase [View article]
    I think you're implying that we've changed our short thesis...that's certainly not the case. Though the company's declining (and now negative) earnings are a really compelling aspect of the short thesis, we now believe that the discrepancy between revenue and operating income are even more intriguing as it shows that Salesforce is no longer a rapidly growing company. We have yet to meet a CRM bull who understands (or cares about) the company's accounting.

    Our short position hasn't influenced our thinking. Rather, our thinking about the company caused us to initiate an add to our short position over the past 6 months. The facts remain that CRM isn't profitable, and its accounting obfuscates the company's position. It's beyond me why anyone would want to buy an unprofitable company with a $20B market cap and a flawed business model.

    JTZ...though you seem to be taking our musings on CRM personally, we'll continue to analyze the results dispassionately, and we'll be the first to change our minds should the facts no longer be on our side.
    May 23, 2011. 08:39 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OpenTable Earnings Reaffirm Key Tenets of Short Thesis [View article]
    Certainly not taking it as gospel. The $60-65 valuation assumes that everything goes right for the company. I only mention the adversarial relationship to point out a potential headwind and to illustrate how OPEN bulls are ignoring any and all risks.
    May 4, 2011. 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OpenTable Earnings Reaffirm Key Tenets of Short Thesis [View article]
    This post by a San Francisco restaurateur explains it more eloquently than I can:

    incanto.biz/2010/10/22.../
    May 4, 2011. 11:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Movie Theaters: Predictable Businesses, Favorable Outlook, Reliable Yield, Cheap Stocks [View article]
    Agree completely. Also, it's not just kids who are attending the theaters. Theater attendance has grown during the time that Netflix has gone from 0 subscribers to 20 million. Netflix isn't much of a competitor to the theaters. Theater naysayers thought that cable TV, VHS players, and DVDs would spell the demise of the business. They've been wrong so far. The data do not support the case that Netflix, Redbox, etc will kill this business. As I say in the article, the real competition for theaters is other forms of out-of-the-home entertainment, and theaters compare favorably to this competition.
    Mar 18, 2011. 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: Difficult to Justify Share Valuation [View article]
    i'm not a trader, and i don't have defined time horizons for my investments. i think salesforce could rally considerably in the next weeks and months. i also think it could collapse. as i said, at some point, reality will bite, and the stock will fall. i remain in positions either until i'm proven correct or until some business development proves my thesis to be flawed. price action, whether up or down, has no bearing on my decisions unless it gives me the opportunity to add to my positions at more advantageous levels.
    Jan 7, 2011. 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: Difficult to Justify Share Valuation [View article]
    Mark: I am still short. I have no idea if it's "ready to burst," but I'm confident that reality will bite the longs at some point. I have reason to believe that the company is working aggressively to boost sales before the end of its fiscal year by using promotions, so I consider it likely that it delivers another upside revenue surprise this quarter. If history is any guide, the stock could rally considerably on that "news." However, CRM's stagnating profitability and poor use of cash say more about its strength than its sales growth does.
    Jan 6, 2011. 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook's Dubious $50 Billion Valuation [View article]
    pretty clear you didn't understand my argument...i addressed this very issue. facebook is no longer a start-up that needs capital to get to a point where it can generate cash. it has 500 million users.

    compare facebook to other large companies that need capital. obviously, building up technology infrastructure is much less expensive than developing an oil field or building power plants, yet facebook cannot fund these costs internally.
    Jan 5, 2011. 08:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: Difficult to Justify Share Valuation [View article]
    I think you're misreading the consensus. The prevailing view is that CRM will continue to move higher. All the mainstream press coverage is favorable, Cramer pumps the stock nightly on his show, and the investment world is, for the most part, completely sold on cloud computing. Belief that the stock is overvalued is definitely not mainstream.

    Also, there's a good chance that momentum players and high frequency trading outfits have been piling in. This certainly fits their profile.
    Dec 3, 2010. 08:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: Revenue Growing Rapidly, Earnings Stagnant [View article]
    I have considered the idea that they could reduce marketing expenses after locking customers in, but there is a key problem with that. The market is driving the stock higher because of top-line growth. If they reduce marketing expenses, top-line growth will slow, and the stock will crater.

    I understand that days like this can shake your confidence as a short, but you shouldn't let share price spikes alter your thesis about the business. CRM will prove to be a far greater company for its customers than for its shareholders.
    Nov 19, 2010. 01:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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