Geoff Considine's  Instablog

I have recently written an article on Advisor Perpectives that looks at the risk of under-performance in equities over extended periods of time:

The Retirement Portfolio Showdown: Zvi Bodie vs. Jeremy Siegel

I am increasingly struck by the fact that people do not understand Bodie's key point with regard to equity risk--that while the probability of under-performing bonds decreases with holding period, the risks of severe under-performance increases.  Bodie's thesis (published in 1995) is well worth understanding.  Bodie concludes that stocks are too risky for retirement planning, but I do not find that this is the case.  That said, the potential for long-term under-performance of equities is real, and investors need to be aware of this.