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Geoffrey Rocca

 
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  • Paul Ryan's Plan for a Debt-Free Nation [View article]
    I forget, which President produced the first balanced budget we had in decades?
    Apr 5 05:54 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Egypt bans the export of all gold, including jewelery. "This decision, which comes in light of the exceptional circumstances the country is passing through... is to preserve the country's wealth until the situation stabilizes," official news agency MENA says.  [View news story]
    As Adam Smith and most people since then have pointed out, the wealth of nations doesn't consist of the gold in it; it consists of the labor and capital resources that its people live on.

    Welcome to 1760, Egypt.
    Feb 27 04:13 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Money Monday: Corporate America's $2 Trillion Pile of Cash [View article]
    It is refreshing to see a progressive voice on a financial site. I think the center of the article is the GNP effects of wages or unemployment benefits. It shouldn't be that controversial to conclude that people can't spend money they don't have. And the lower income spend a greater proportion of their income than the super-rich, so of course any stimulus centered on them would produce greater results.

    Good job Mr. Davis; don't be discouraged by the controversy.
    Jul 12 12:23 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Budget Deficit Is Falling [View article]
    "Hardly an exhaustive analysis, you basically showed that you don't have enough information to form a statistically significant conclusion."

    No, I showed that the data I do have don't allow a statistically significant conclusion. It's impossible to prove a negative using regression analysis, but it is the people who claim that higher taxes always stifle growth who have the burden to prove it.
    Sep 15 01:04 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Budget Deficit Is Falling [View article]
    Well, I've examined the relationship between tax collections as a portion of GDP and GDP growth, to see how badly tax hikes historically have caused a slowing of growth. I've found absolutely no historical correlation between changes in effective tax rates and changes in GDP growth up or down.

    For my full analysis, see

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Sep 14 09:01 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pres. Obama's budget underestimates federal deficits by $2.3T over the coming decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office. His budgets would produce deficits totaling $9.5T over 10 years rather than his expected $7.2T. Chief reason for the discrepancy: Obama uses rosier economic assumptions.  [View news story]
    Rosier economic projections...so Congress is replacing one wild guess with another.
    Mar 18 07:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European Austerity Still Isn't Working [View article]
    A further trouble is that European austerity cuts global aggregate demand, and so any austerity measures on the part of the United States would further destroy any possibility of the global recovery. Basically, we in the States are underwriting their austerity.
    Sep 8 03:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 High Yielding Stocks With Risky Dividends [View article]
    In addition to the free cash flow issue that has been discussed by other commenters, the reason that Windstream's quarterly earnings are down year over year is due to a nonrecurring expense associated with debt refinancing. Without this expense, quarterly earnings would have been higher than the same quarter last year.
    Jun 6 12:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Considering Ayn Rand's philosophy holds that laissez-faire capitalism is "the only moral social system," it's not surprising that Ayn Rand Institute's Yaron Brook thinks the economy is sputtering because the U.S. government's response to the 2008 crisis was too heavy-handed. "We should have let banks fail, let auto companies fail [and] let housing prices tank to reach their true bottom."  [View news story]
    Victor Niederhoffer, who named his daughter "Galtia," managed to blow up two hedge funds. And of course, Greenspan was integral to blowing up the world.

    Seems like being an Ayn Rand fanboy is correlated with flawed thinking. Even Greenspan admitted to a "flaw"
    May 9 05:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold May Not Be a Bubble, But It's Also Not a Good Hedge Against Inflation [View article]
    As he said, you could also acquire land, or commodities, or even art. Gold and dollars are not the only two choices.
    Feb 14 02:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High up on Amazon's bestseller list is the reprint of a once obscure book about the German hyperinflation. It took 20 German marks to buy 1 pound in 1914, it took 320 billion by 1923. "When Money Dies" is a detailed and disturbing account of that time.  [View news story]
    On the whole, when a book on a financial subject hits the bestseller list it's a good idea to take the opposite side of the trade. Remember Dow 36,000?
    Dec 30 08:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Determining the Intrinsic Value of Gold [View article]
    "Conversely, in less than a century, the U.S. dollar has lost more than 95% of its purchasing power."

    Who earned a dollar a century ago and hasn't got round to spending or investing it yet? If you use a first in, first out calculation, most people's dollars are less than a year old.

    So what does it matter what the dollar was worth 100 years ago? For that matter, what does it matter what gold was worth then?
    Sep 15 03:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Cheap Internet Stock With High Dividend Yield [View article]
    I do like the looks of United Online, and it is apparently cheap on a free cash flow basis, but I'm not sure that it's safe. They recently lost a post-sales marketing program that contributed greatly to their profit margins, and I don't know that recent earnings are as low as they're ever going to be in future.
    Jul 26 01:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Gold Really an Investment? [View article]
    In the words of Seth Klarman, to be considered an investment, a thing must throw off cash flow for its owner. Anything else must be speculation.
    Jul 9 05:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HollyFrontier: Enormous Free Cash Flow Yields Make A Compelling Opportunity [View article]
    Based on the share price, 19%. The reason to treat excess cash as separable is a somewhat complicated question. First, the company does not need it for its operations, since their operating cash flows are positive and their cash holdings dwarf their projected capital needs, and therefore that money is just sitting there waiting to be returned to shareholders through dividends, buybacks, etc. or put into an expansion project.

    Second, it is unfair to charge the company its equity cost of capital against assets that earn the cash rate. That would create the paradox that companies become worth less and less the more cash they hold.
    Jun 18 06:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
69 Comments
101 Likes