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George Acs  

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  • What's Going On? [View article]
    Not so fast on that MU. Two weeks is a long time, especially since it then sunk lower during the conference call on lower guidance. Everything is more and more of a moving target these days.
    Apr 1, 2015. 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]
    I had one drafted a while ago about 3D Systems but decided that it just wasn't worth it. I think Tesla falls into the same category.

    You should have seen some of the comments when I wrote about Facebook just before or shortly after its initial expiration lock up. In that case I actually wrote a follow up trying to politely taunt some of the commenters.
    Yeah, really mature.
    Mar 30, 2015. 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]
    I stopped writing about Apple because there were too many comments. Too many can be a mixed blessing sort of thing, although I generally enjoy seeing them & replying to them.

    These days the comments are as likely to be between readers directed to one another, and constructive ones at that, which is pretty nice to see.
    Mar 29, 2015. 08:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]

    Not as long as volatility is low.
    Mar 29, 2015. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]
    I love the word "minion."

    I used to have an employee that always referred to himself as "your trusty minion."

    2008 and 2009 were great years for ROI. I think, though that you out-traded and out-performed me. I had somewhere north of 2000 trades in 2009, but definitely not as high as 3000. My ROI, purely as cash flow, as discussed earlier was about 50% back then, but I didn't include dividends back in those days, as I didn't seek them out as much. I also sold very few puts back then.

    You may remember that the volatility back then made it often a good idea to rollover positions even if they would otherwise be assigned, as the forward premiums just kept outstripping the current premiums. Back then, though, there weren't very many weekly options, most were still monthly.

    But the premiums were so good it also often made sense to close out an option position if shares fell sharply and then sell them back a couple of days later at an even higher premium.
    Mar 29, 2015. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]
    The challenge is much greater during low volatility periods that rely on weekly contracts in cases where a weekly contracts expires and can't be immediately rolled over to generate additional income due to a price drop in shares.

    During higher volatility periods, even as the market may be trending lower, the expectation for more predictable income streams actually increases, as you find yourself more apt to use monthly or expanded weekly contracts and not as much at risk for expiration due to a momentary price drop, as we've seen over the past month on a number of Thursdays and Fridays.

    In such cases you may also find greater protection from short term spikes or plunges by diversifying expiration dates, for example having some expire April 17, 2015, others in May and maybe some others in June. During low volatility periods, though, it's much harder to justify writing a 2 or 3 month option contract, as the premium tends to be very low.
    Mar 29, 2015. 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]
    To clarify, that annual 30% that you are referring to is not a suggestion that such a level of profit or asset appreciation is likely or even possible.

    Instead that is the target for income generation from your assets and has nothing to do with portfolio value going up nor down. The article that fcfrag is referring to and his own comments are consistent with the former, rather than latter notion.

    You've simply mis-interpreted in either reflex disbelief or misplaced cynicism

    You can still create positive income flow from a combination of option premiums and dividends even when your asset value is falling. That 2.5%/month level for income generation is achievable, especially if placing some emphasis on dividend capture and using shorter term option contracts. In times of higher volatility less emphasis needs to be placed on dividends and contract terms may be longer.

    The ultimate objective is that the enhanced flow of income from your holdings improves your overall return. That's almost always going to be true in down, flat and mildly higher markets. It's less likely to be true in markets that move higher and higher, particularly if doing so in leaps and bounds.
    Mar 29, 2015. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]
    I didn't take it on a personal level. My comment was that it's always easy to make a similar accusation, but there is still some burden of proof, which includes the likelihood that the accused is familiar with the works of the originator of the piece of intellectual property that is being questioned.
    Mar 29, 2015. 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]
    I had to do an upgrade going from London back home following a heart attack there and being advised that I should make certain I had lots of room to roam around and stretch during the flight.

    I didn't recall being warned against alcohol consumption, so my wife and I definitely tried to whittle down the extra costs of the seats with in kind items. It's amazing how you can get someone who doesn't generally drink to do so when they feel a need to get their money's worth.
    Mar 29, 2015. 01:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]
    11 Heinekens on a flight? I hope you were flying from someplace like Capetown, South Africa and the first class upgrade included unlimited bathroom privileges.
    Mar 29, 2015. 09:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]
    The Macys CEO, who initially had altered guidance to reflect increased spending had the most pragmatic explanation of why they weren't seeing any increased spending.

    He said that all economists kept focusing on the $750/yr savings per family and it seemed like a lot. But for the people actually paying less for gas that $750 doesn't all come at once like it did for a Bush era tax rebate, which definitely spurred spending. Instead it came at $50-60/month and people were unsure f it would even come again the following month.

    That's not the kind of thing to send people on spending sprees. Instead the money just went into checking accounts.
    Mar 29, 2015. 09:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]
    We went to Costco yesterday and used the annual rebate to pay for items. Because it didn't feel like real cash we probably splurged a little bit.

    Still, I love the feeling of having a really obscenely large grocery bill and walking out of the place with much more cash in my hands than I had when I walked in. I love the idea that they don't electronically retain the unused part as a credit and pay it out.

    I'll miss that in 2017.
    Mar 29, 2015. 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]

    In the case of a buy/write, the 1% is a net figure that would include the premium, any dividend and and capital gain or loss on the shares themselves.

    For put sales it is only the premium that's considered.
    Mar 29, 2015. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]
    GPS is scheduled to report their same store sales after the market closes on Thursday of the ex-dividend week.

    FOr the existing shares of GPS that have a $42.50 4/10 expiration, I may need to consider rolling over this Thursday in order to keep the dividend.
    Mar 29, 2015. 09:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]
    In hindsight you're right.

    While economists believed that there would be more consumer spending as a result of the lowering of energy prices you could probably make an argument that an ivory tower doesn't necessarily give you a good view of what's going on well below. However, even those in the trenches, the more pragmatic CEOs of retailers, who have only liability associated with giving optimistic guidance, also believed that there would be a palpable growth in consumer spending.

    The increase in personal savings and debt repayment was validated a couple of months ago, so the mystery has already been solved.
    Mar 29, 2015. 09:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment