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George Acs

 
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  • This Time I Really Mean It [View article]
    True, the value of the ultimate deal can vary with the underlying stock being offered, but consider these:

    In the case of RAI and LO, the former has well out-performed the latter ever since the buy-out went from rumor to announced. As a result of RAI's performance it would have been reasonable to expect a similar rise in LO.

    In the case of HAL and BHI, the latter has well out-performed the former, continuing to move higher even as the value of HAL shares went lower. If one still wanted to use some reasonable logic, BHI should have seen some erosion in its share price as a result.
    Nov 23, 2014. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time I Really Mean It [View article]
    I like that "mongrel" concept.

    As they say "every dog has its day," it just may help to know what can be done to bring out the best in any stock at a moment in time.
    Nov 23, 2014. 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time I Really Mean It [View article]
    Thanks, but on the other hand, on those few occasions that I write a focused article and get some very heated and emotional comments, there's some perverse enjoyment of those, as well.
    Nov 23, 2014. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time I Really Mean It [View article]
    There's no doubt that BP has a troubled past and that it may continue to serve as its legacy. But like so many others, as you point out, the long term can bring challenges, just as the unexpected can occur at any point in time for any company.

    Who, for example, would have thought Target would be devastated by a security breach? Dealing with credit cards is a risk factor, but most ignored that known risk.

    Petrobras? Being a Brazilian company is itself a risk for kickback scandals, but most ignored that risk, too.
    I think ultimately luck, especially in timing, is far more important than any of us wants to admit. It's just an extension of the concept of being in the right place at the right time
    Nov 23, 2014. 01:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time I Really Mean It [View article]
    In my case, the comment was a recognition that the forward moving S&P 500 is not moving the component stocks forward in unison. It is very much a market that has been sector centric and has seen lots of rotation, The net result of the action has been to move the market higher, but if you take a snapshot in time things may not look so rosy.

    The difference is interpretation from simply looking at the S&P 500 is no different from excluding outliers from a sampling of date to get an idea of how the data is really distributed.
    Nov 23, 2014. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time I Really Mean It [View article]
    Don't know how those could have slipped in. I will try to filter those out in any subsequent articles.

    I was actually going to refer to the hero of this past week as "Mao-rio" Draghi, but thought that was too sophomoric

    I'm still full of glee that someone noticed the "back peddled" reference
    Nov 23, 2014. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time I Really Mean It [View article]
    Thank you.

    There was an article from a couple of years ago that discusses the concept. It is definitely a much more efficient strategy as volatility increases

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Nov 23, 2014. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time I Really Mean It [View article]
    Finally, someone who got it. But still, it depends on what what really meant.

    Peddling if you're trying to sell something. I think Bullard was definitely trying to sell something and was trying to walk it back.
    Nov 23, 2014. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time I Really Mean It [View article]
    Thanks, but the Washington DC NBC studio, where Meet the Press originates, has a restraining order against me.

    I don't currently have any non-dividend paying oil stocks on my radar, although Anadarko and Apache are close.

    Many stocks offer option premiums during the ex-dividend week that underwrite some of the stock's price reduction as a result of going ex-dividend.

    That's especially true for those that are near the money or in the money. That underwriting is less when volatility is very low, especially for the in the money strikes.

    As a general rule I look for in the money option premiums that if exercised would offer a 1% ROI for the week. However, very often with dividend paying stocks during the ex-dividend week you'll see that the premium plus the dividend (if not assigned early) will be in excess of 1% or at least in excess of the historical weekly premium relative to the strike price. Those are the ones that get my attention.

    In the event of an early assignment your ROI is lower, but if early in the week you can then take the proceeds of the assignment and re-invest in another stock with its own premium and perhaps, dividend, as well to make up for the lower return due to not retaining the dividend.

    As another general rule, your ex-dividend position won't be assigned early if the shares are in the money by less than the dividend amount. Or if in the money by more than that amount the longer the time until expiration the less likely to see early assignment.
    Nov 23, 2014. 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time I Really Mean It [View article]
    There's not much wrong with taking profits. Besides, very few stocks go only in single direction or do so for very long. There is almost always an opportunity to find the same trade at some other time in the future.

    Just look back to comments made regarding the suggestion that profits should have been taken in Apple shares a couple of years ago. Not too dissimilar from your own, except that you are polite about the suggestion.
    The politeness alone, though, gives it much more credibility from my perspective.
    Nov 23, 2014. 09:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time I Really Mean It [View article]
    We need to see a little movement again from Holly Frontier and Transocean, but those dividends do help sustain the patience.
    Nov 23, 2014. 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time I Really Mean It [View article]
    One of the things that I enjoy most about the comments section is how readers interact with one another and typically in a very positive and constructive way. It's always nice to share a good idea and insight
    Nov 23, 2014. 08:19 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time I Really Mean It [View article]
    Thanks.

    Back peddling is certainly good cardio.

    As far as oil goes, when just about everyone called for $75 and then came calls for $50/barrel, I think the time came to think that perhaps a floor had been set. It's so rare for everyone to be right.

    Can geo-politics still send it lower? Absolutely, but that becomes the time to buy again. I was happy to pick up shares of BP at what I thought was finally a reasonable price. Apache or Anadarko may be next.
    Nov 23, 2014. 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time I Really Mean It [View article]
    I can't bear to think about how much profit was lost because of thinking about the tax considerations.

    Just like with your work related earnings, the more you pay is just a reflection of having earned more. Which would you rather have, less paid in taxes or more net after having paid taxes?"

    Stocks like BP often offer the opportunity to exploit them right before the ex-dividend date, capturing dividend and option premium over and over again. And when the money is not invested in BP, it is often invested in another company about to go ex-dividend.

    One thing you'll see is that those who practice a serial kind of purchase strategy and use covered options often achieve a dividend yield well in excess of the S&P 500 yield and without relying on stocks with unsustainablly high dividends.

    Do you pay short term taxes? Absolutely, but crunch the numbers and taxes are worth it, especially if it means having realized profits,m rather than having seen them evaporate.
    Nov 23, 2014. 08:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A JOLT To The System, But The Good Kind [View article]
    We just like the chocolate bananas on Balboa
    Nov 23, 2014. 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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