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George Acs

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  • Rolling The Dice With Earnings [View article]
    It was a slow trading week for me so why not write something mid-week?

    Alas, no CMG mini-option.

    Agreed. The commissions are a minor nuisance that just is part of generating revenue. More trades, more revenue
    Apr 17 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling The Dice With Earnings [View article]
    I like using the percentage values simply as a means of comparison, whereas it is really only the absolute values that are necessary to define the ranges, as you point out. Besides, I had an extra column left over and figured I need to use it for something.

    Everything else being equal, if looking at some potential trades I get more interested in those that have a larger implied volatility percentage. Those often offer the ROI I'm looking for outside of the range more readily than stocks with lower percentage implied volatilities, regardless of what the absolute premiums happen to be
    Apr 17 07:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling The Dice With Earnings [View article]
    You are far more disciplined than I am, but also far more daring, especially if selling naked calls. I think that would really warrant more columns in any spreadsheet.
    Apr 17 07:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling The Dice With Earnings [View article]
    If trading costs are a consideration then you shouldn't be making the trades. That's why I didn't do so in the 80s. It just cost too much. You don't have to be trading in huge lots these days to get cost efficiencies to make trading possible. You just have to go to a discount broker that's in your price range.

    There's no disparagement of any technique or strategy offered in this article.

    The worst case scenario is no different from owning a particular stock except that you also went in at a lower price than the next guy and received a premium for your effort. In that case, you're better off and you can simply close your position as warranted if you get scared off like everyone else.
    Apr 17 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling The Dice With Earnings [View article]
    If what you say about CLF would be accurate, then it would simply be an ideal covered call position. Given its history it's not too likely that its price will be constrained as you say, although I can't have the same level of certainty as you seem to have.
    Apr 16 10:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling The Dice With Earnings [View article]
    Click on the link earlier in the article. It will take you to an article that discusses implied volatility. Basically, using a short term option is best, such as a weekly option, take the call and ask premiums at the nearest at the money or in the money strike price, add them together and then divide by the strike price. That is the implied volatility. That defines the range, up and down, from that strike level, that the option market believes the price of shares may move.

    Sorry about the headache. The article was supposed to give you projectile vomiting.
    Apr 16 10:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling The Dice With Earnings [View article]
    In the event of the potential assignment of put contracts you had sold, whether related to earnings or otherwise, there can be some really good rollover opportunities that may allow you to ride out the storm. See the experience with Cree in this recent article http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 16 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling The Dice With Earnings [View article]
    Thank you, but now I feel like I shouldn't have just used a random number generator to fill in the blanks in the Table.

    Ultimately, there's nothing a spreadsheet can't help to either clarify or obfuscate.
    Apr 16 09:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility... It's Back [View article]
    Yeah, the near term premiums are reflecting some expectation for volatility but the longer term aren't

    If you noticed the STOs on MET and SBUX today went for higher strikes accepting the reality that the forward month premiums were low.
    Apr 16 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility... It's Back [View article]
    While in general I'm not a big believer in the concept of "luck," when it comes to stock positions I think it's as valuable as valid as anything else. I use the word "hopefully" all the time when thinking about stock positions, but rarely in anything else.
    Apr 16 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility... It's Back [View article]
    Thank you.

    Yes, my interest in APOL is still there, but it continues as a potential put sale. I'd like to see another drop, say on a 5% order, before doing so.

    ANF is getting my interest again, as I've almost always had a position over the past two years and have been waiting for it to come down from $39. As it gets closer to dipping below $35 I'm ready to either add shares or sell puts.
    Apr 16 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility... It's Back [View article]
    Quite a story. I found his obituary a short while ago. Your recollections would have been a nice tribute to his memory.
    Apr 15 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility... It's Back [View article]
    I knew Rower and Healthco well, in addition to knowing the "Combat Zone" well. My father had owned a dental lab in NYC and did business with both. I believe, although not certain, my father telling me that Meyer Cyker was Hungarian, but he thought everyone was Hungarian. I met him when I went to pick up a package of casting gold for my father probably 40 years ago, or so

    If I recall JJ Crimmings was a local dental supplier. They used to be the suppliers for Children's Hospital in Boston. Every Friday the question was "Do you need anything from JJs?"
    Apr 15 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility... It's Back [View article]
    Thank you.

    It hasn't really fallen out of favor, it's just that I think its price is a little too high at the moment. It's among the stocks that I regularly follow looking for a potential opportunity to climb aboard again.

    I generally like to consider Seagate prior to an ex-dividend date or after some sharp losses, or possibly as a put sale before earnings.
    Apr 14 11:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility... It's Back [View article]
    The numerous near vertical movements in volatility would argue against any kind of systematic movement in the index that is based upon behaviors that are timed to events. Instead, you would expect to see a less rapid velocity of change as anticipated events begin or end.

    But again, more importantly, the pattern is not an old established one, whereas earnings season is old and established. It is a pattern of recent origin that can end just as easily as it sprang.

    Besides that, your contention that the mini-VIX periods "correspond to the approach of earnings," probably depends on how you define "approach" and if you look at the chart, just how consistent you are in the application of that definition. For example, the narrow mini-VIX in April 2013 actually precipitously began after earnings season started. By contrast, the more broad mini-VIX in Sept 2013 ended more than a month before earnings season, while instead a maxi-VIX occurred at the onset of that earnings season. A near similar situation is seen at the next earnings season, so it is difficult to make the association as you have.
    Apr 14 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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