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George Acs  

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  • Expect The Unexpected [View article]
    If selling a put (almost always a weekly) and shares go up after earnings, I often want to secure profits and will close out the position, but that's not always the case. Sometimes I will take my chances if I don't have immediate better uses for the money.

    However, if shares go down, yet still above the strike, I look more critically at the proposition. It ultimately depends on what the cost will be to close the position and what my exit strategy will otherwise be if shares continue to fall.

    Some of the most rewarding trades have come from rolling over puts in danger of assignment and doing so until they eventually expire. Cree is one such example. The exit strategy can be closing out the position or rolling over, or even taking assignment.

    This time, in the case of Cree, I didn't sell puts (just as I didn't with DECK nor FB) this week, because shares were moving higher in advance of earnings, as discussed in the earlier article this week http://seekingalpha.co...

    However, I may do so tomorrow as any downward momentum can still offer a good premium for 3 days and may offer those rollover opportunities, if necessary.
    Apr 22, 2014. 07:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect The Unexpected [View article]
    Well, not exactly. Part of the agreement was that I wouldn't subject readers to my real image. Seeking Alpha insisted that be the case, although I did once sneak in a photo (see: http://seekingalpha.co... scrolling to end of article )
    Apr 22, 2014. 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect The Unexpected [View article]
    Seeking Alpha wouldn't allow me to state the degree of certainty to four places of significance.
    Apr 22, 2014. 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect The Unexpected [View article]
    37.9%
    Apr 21, 2014. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect The Unexpected [View article]
    Thanks. I will have that corrected.
    Apr 20, 2014. 08:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect The Unexpected [View article]
    I have to agree with you. I don't think that the game is rigged or there is any kind of systemic preferential outcome. We just don't hear much about adverse outcomes for those of great means because they take pains to hide anything that would also adversely impact their reputations.

    I also believe that the Federal Reserve, perhaps less so under Greenspan, really did get it right when it really counted.
    Apr 20, 2014. 08:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect The Unexpected [View article]
    But the crowd is heavily skewed toward those already with money and the smart money is very often on the wrong side of the trade.

    Those not included in the flow of money make up a very small portion of individual stock ownership, if you exclude mutual funds. SO the various moves higher and lower disproportionately impact those with the greatest amounts at stake. They too have emotions and follow basic human traits such as fear and greed, even if an algorithm is pulling the trigger.
    Apr 20, 2014. 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect The Unexpected [View article]
    Thank you.

    Coach can easily plunge. It's definitely done so in the past. But the nice thing is that in advance of earnings there will likely be a nice boost in the out of the money put premiums if forced to rollover the puts sold this week.
    If it opens lower, I'm going top be much more inclined to want to sell those puts and then as I do with every position I just keep my fingers crossed and hope.
    Apr 20, 2014. 07:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect The Unexpected [View article]
    I looked forward to 59 1/2 for years. I finally reached it six months ago and haven't withdrawn a dime, but it does feel good knowing that the penalty component is a thing of the past.
    Apr 20, 2014. 07:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect The Unexpected [View article]
    What's especially nice is that as a covered option addict there are so many ways to get satisfaction and no one really needs to get hurt.
    Apr 20, 2014. 07:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect The Unexpected [View article]
    I'm not expecting to be very active this week, although I like some of the earnings related trades the most.

    Good luck with retirement. You will love it. Wish I had done it many years ago.
    Apr 20, 2014. 07:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling The Dice With Earnings [View article]
    Not certain that I fully understand the question, but the basic issue is that I want to see a 1% or greater ROI for a weekly contract at a strike level that is outside of the range predicted by the option market.

    For example, with the option market predicting a bottom range of $52.50 for Facebook, I might be happy to take a venture at the $50 strike to get my 1% ROI, but I wouldn't be willing to try MSFT since the strike necessary to achieve a 1% ROI was at the lower strike and not below
    Apr 19, 2014. 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling The Dice With Earnings [View article]
    Selling puts on margin can be a great way to go as you don't get charged interest to do so and the premium is like a gift. I would assume, however, that getting an annualized rate as high as you are, that you're using some volatile positions, so you just have to be prepared for exit strategies in the event of large and unexpected moves.
    Apr 19, 2014. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling The Dice With Earnings [View article]
    Ultimately, there's never a shortage of good ideas and opportunities that appear as a reflection of the environment at any moment in time. The collapse of some high beta names is a good example.

    I think the single most important factor in any strategy and theory is to be consistent in its application and not fold at any indication of adverse movement against the positions. Commitment is a good thing. Good luck with those positions. No question that selling was overdone and bounces are likely.
    Apr 18, 2014. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling The Dice With Earnings [View article]
    It was a slow trading week for me so why not write something mid-week?

    Alas, no CMG mini-option.

    Agreed. The commissions are a minor nuisance that just is part of generating revenue. More trades, more revenue
    Apr 17, 2014. 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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