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George Acs  

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  • You Almost Can't Spell 'Good' Without 'Odd' [View article]
    I used to be amazed by the concept behind the color wheel and I'm sure that it actually works, although I could never get it to obey the rules when I tried mixing pigments. Inevitably, almost every system sees a collision between theory and reality.. When originally writing this piece I was going to reference the Higgs boson particle, but it just got too esoteric. It was easier to stick to paint, at least that I can understand why I don't understand.
    May 26, 2014. 07:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Almost Can't Spell 'Good' Without 'Odd' [View article]

    As I look back in hindsight, I think I now understand why I always voted for Harold Stassen. There's just some comfort in familiarity
    May 25, 2014. 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Almost Can't Spell 'Good' Without 'Odd' [View article]
    That's exactly the secret. The more history the easier it can be to identify potential opportunities. They don't always work out in the time frame that you had hoped, but when history is on your side you can rest a little more comfortably while waiting.
    May 25, 2014. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Almost Can't Spell 'Good' Without 'Odd' [View article]
    Thank you. As mentioned in a previous comment, you can never discount the role of luck.

    I've been waiting a long time for Kors to come down in price, but I've given up holding my breath for that to happen. Instead, for people like me it can simply serve as a vehicle for some short term gains whether it goes up or down in response to earnings, as long as it stays within some boundaries.

    Generally, if I do sell puts, I'd much prefer seeing a quick pop in price after earnings. That we, you and I could both be happy.
    May 25, 2014. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Almost Can't Spell 'Good' Without 'Odd' [View article]

    As with most anything when it comes to the markets, there has to be some consideration given to luck, good or bad. The results on ANF could have been different if the initial position was opened in 2011 or even early 2012.

    Also, looking at the individual trades, there were some positions opened at the high end of the recent range from May to August 2013. Fortunately, those were all very short positions, from 1 to 3 weeks, however if any of those had not been assigned they could just as easily been submerged when ANF plunged in mid-August.

    You can never discount luck.
    May 25, 2014. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spinning Your Wheels [View article]
    Somehow I don't think that will ever transpire.

    There will always be a market for futurists even though, if you go to your physician's office and read through old issues of TIME, Business Week, etc... you see that they are invariably wrong, whether its the market, technology, politics, etc...

    Yet somehow we never tire of hearing what failed prophets believe.
    May 19, 2014. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spinning Your Wheels [View article]
    Unless there are earnings approaching in this low volatility period of time it would be unlikely to get a 1% ROI on subsequent rollovers. I am generally willing to take what I can if using the same strike price. Ultimately, if you look at our data long enough the best returns tend to be from the positions that you're able to serially rollover, even if it's 0.5% each time. Those fractions add up.

    At the moment the longer time frame, like a monthly, is offering such low premiums, due to the low volatility, that I get reluctant to tie down, even those it's a guaranteed return.

    For me, this was an extremely slow week. Just 2 new positions, one rollover and two new calls sold on existing positions.
    May 18, 2014. 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spinning Your Wheels [View article]
    I'm waiting for it to get back to the $51 range and then I'd like to own it again, having had it assigned from there a few weeks ago.
    May 18, 2014. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spinning Your Wheels [View article]
    Can't really disagree with the gloomy prediction regarding social security, but the same outcome might be anticipated when any boom generation comes to maturity. If there aren't enough people in subsequent generations to keep pumping new money into the trust fund there is bound to be a problem that can only be resolved as the next boom generation starts paying into the system, assuming that there are sufficient jobs and at a pay scale to replenish the fund.

    With increasing divides between massive wealth and the middle class ultimately, the idea of having a cap on earnings subject to social security tax is one proactive action Congress should take to reduce the gap in the trust fund.
    May 18, 2014. 09:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spinning Your Wheels [View article]
    The more you watch the more clear that people are spinning all the time. Whatever their hypothesis happens to be the facts are made to conform.

    Luck is every bit as important as anything else, except people continually take credit when things go their way and then spin when it doesn't.
    May 18, 2014. 08:20 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Law Of Gravity [View article]

    All in all, it was better than at least one of the alternatives.

    I ended up 0.1% better than the S&P 500 for the week, but ended up doing very little trading. This was probably the slowest week in about the last 5 years, as I guess I still haven't learned to count all of those chickens before they're hatched. I was pretty optimistic about the way the week would go once Tuesday was in the books and in the future will try to remember that it isn't over until it's over.
    May 16, 2014. 09:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Law Of Gravity [View article]
    I don't follow TFM, but do currently hold WFM and would be glad to be rid of the shares.

    TFM reports earnings this coming week and the option market is pricing in a large move. While the premium looks good for the $30 strike, it may not be sufficient for the anticipated risk, although there would be about a month for the shares to recover in the event of a drop.

    WFM would appear to be a reasonable put sale, but I thought that at higher strike prices, as well.
    May 16, 2014. 07:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Law Of Gravity [View article]
    Thank you, I am.

    He got to sit inside a Huey in the Dallas Flight Museum outside of Love Field about 5 years ago. One of the docents was a Vietnam Vet, took down the ropes and let him in. He also took off the back and showed him all of the signatures of the soldiers who had served with that copter. He was already interested in helicopters, but I think that sealed the deal.
    May 14, 2014. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Law Of Gravity [View article]
    Combination of funny and sad back in 1968 looking back and seeing how little anyone behind the Iron Curtain know about what was going on in their neighborhood, much less the world and then how easily bribery could get you anything.

    No, my son is in Army NG, Blackhawk Crew Chief, but so far, in his 4th year, it's been good experience and has really helped shape his personality.
    May 13, 2014. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Law Of Gravity [View article]
    My son in in National Guard. Logic and rationality isn't in deep supply at times. Probably lots of need for Czech in Viet Nam 45 years ago.

    I was in Hungary as tourist on August 20, 1968 when Russian Migs overhead en-route to Czechoslovakia. We were supposed to leave on that day, but airports shut down and no one knew what was going on. Three days later and 1 bribe to get visas extended or face imprisonment we learned about invasion once we arrived in France.
    May 13, 2014. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment