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George Acs

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  • Rolling With The Punches [View article]
    I'm not certain that I understand your math. Your minimally acceptable ROI is on the order of 1.6-2%, but doesn't specify the time frame. Given your hope to generate an 18-25% annualized ROI, I can deduce that the anticipated holding period is on the order of 9-15 weeks. During that period of time there is no doubt that a stock such as Apple will experience numerous changes in direction of its stock price, both creating and then exhausting capital appreciation in an inefficient fashion.

    I think the only part that is irrational is the use of annualized projections. Doing the same, for example, with the Apple trade, based on a 3.5 day holding period would offer nearly an 80% ROI. Ridiculous, yes, but still using the same projection methodology.

    I'm happy to simply generate the 1.1% for those few days and have no visions of 18-25%.

    The trade is simply a trade, hopefully a very short term one, thereby freeing up the very same cash to move into another position and attempting the very same kind of return.

    But, as you do correctly point out, rationality is not necessarily a prerequisite. Above all, personal preference and faithfully following individual investor temperament is key to retaining a sense of security and calm.
    Feb 3 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling With The Punches [View article]
    Thanks, although I prefer to believe that they were happy to see me elect an early retirement.
    Feb 3 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling With The Punches [View article]
    I agree with your assessment and it's very interesting you mentioned that. You may have seen a number of earlier articles that I wrote that were fairly critical of Apple going back to May 2012.

    Two weeks ago I included Apple as a possible earnings related play, but didn't recommend it to subscribers and didn't follow through for my own account. As late as an hour before earnings were reported I was toying with selling the weekly $480 put, but got cold feet.

    But this past Friday, Apple was the next to last Trading Alert of the week, as a Double Dip Dividend play, buying at $451.27 and selling a Feb 8, 2013 $450 call for $6.60. The last time I owned shares they were assigned at $450 about a year ago. I expect that there's a good chance that the new shares will get called away in order to capture the dividend, but if so, that would still be a 1.1% ROI for a bit more than 3 days.
    Feb 3 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling With The Punches [View article]
    I plan to go to Mexico first and then sneak into California, so I'm not too concerned about taxes. Now that most of my wife's family is dead, it's safe to live there.

    Eventually, through osmosis, I do learn what it is that a company does, but I don't find that kind of information necessarily important most of the time. When it is important, even those that are well studied in a specific company still get caught in sudden downdrafts. The information isn't necessarily helpful, especially when it's universally available.

    I don't worry about companies going to 0 because I tend to stay away from risky companies. I may not know, for example, exactly what Riverbed Technology does, but over the years that osmosis has led me to create a profile of patterned behavior and the confidence that they aren't going to disappear in the few weeks or months that I'm hoping to hold and then sell shares.
    Feb 3 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling With The Punches [View article]
    Thanks. Yes, your photo is now in the public domain where it can garner a much wider and adoring audience than ever before.
    Feb 2 09:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling With The Punches [View article]
    Of course. I do speak Hungarian, but can't write nor read terribly well. Then again, I could say the same thing about English.

    Or, as Google helps me to say:

    Természetesen. Én beszélek magyarul, de nem tud írni, sem olvasni szörnyen jól. Aztán megint, azt is mondhatnám ugyanezt az angol.
    Feb 2 09:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling With The Punches [View article]
    Having graduated dental school and spent about 20 years on cleft palate/craniofacial teams I have that all taken care of if the need arises.
    Feb 2 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling With The Punches [View article]
    Insider buying isn't as highly correlated with price movement as non-planned insider selling.

    I guess everything on life is relative. Are you looking for a location south that doesn't get below -10?
    Feb 2 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling With The Punches [View article]
    Absolutely. No where did the recovery to the over-reaction show up better than in shares of EMC, which I owned.

    VMW was one of my potential earnings plays last week, but went instead with FB and X. After VMW earnings I thought about either buying shares or selling puts, but instead added shares of EMC (which reported the following AM) and owns about 80% of VMW.

    EMC dropped aqbout 6%, granted much less than VMW, but recovered almost all of it by the end of the week.

    VMware has been counted out for a couple of years now with everyone saying that its proprietary product won't stand up to a commoditization of cloud storage and virtual computing, but it continues to be the go to for corporate secure storage and virtual applications.
    Feb 2 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling With The Punches [View article]
    There was a time that I would agree with you on that, but I've had enough snow (although this year has been pretty good on that end) and have realized that there's beautiful foliage in lots of places that just don't market the fact terribly well.

    Basically, I never want to wear socks ever again, but I suppose I could do that in Chicago, too.
    Feb 2 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling With The Punches [View article]
    " ...and don't marry our sisters anymore.

    But do you do it any less?

    My wife is a Californian and I'm afraid we're headed there in a year or so. As a New Yorker I used to think that was the only place to live. Then Boston became the only place, now DC.

    What amazes me is how many great places there actually are to live around the country. We were in Florida last year for a wedding and could easily envision ourselves there. Same for South Carolina, and on and on.

    It is pretty sad what's happened to the old industrial corridor, but compared to much of the world that's just now entering the 20th century at breakneck speed, pretty much most of the US looks like an old backwater place that time has forgotten.

    Luckily, I've taken a long position in tumbleweed futures, so I'm good.
    Feb 2 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling With The Punches [View article]
    I've never owned MCD nor AMGN but continually look to see whether the time is right or not, but just haven't found the right time to do so for either. used to love trading in Genentech and miss not having it around as a "go to" stock.

    Just had WMB assigned from me this Friday, but if it gets near $35 will re-purchase and sell calls on shares.

    As far as bank stocks go, am currently holding BAC. Had C assigned last week, owning it for the first time in years. I usually focus on JPM, WFC and MS, but the only one that I'm likely to re-purchase in the near future unless there is significant price reduction is WFC.
    Feb 2 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling With The Punches [View article]
    We all transplant somewhere. I took your place in Maryland, now going on 17 years. Nice state, but still freaked out that it's below the Mason-Dixon.

    After a few bone chilling days here Florida does sound pretty nice and besides, depending where in Florida, it's not really below the Mason-Dixon Line.

    I've always liked Lockheed, but haven't owned shares in about 2 years, principally because I've transitioned to stocks that have weekly more weekly options available.

    Funny how as I've gotten older I can't really see past the "day to day stuff" like I used to. The days when I'd have a stock for 10 years are long gone. Just a couple of years ago we were all complaining how stocks were trading based on quarter to quarter earnings rather than longer term considerations. These days they trade from minute to minute rumors, crises, contrived events and so any irrelevant factors.

    Those are either all opportunities or reasons to lose your sanity. Or both.
    Feb 2 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling With The Punches [View article]
    I've been sitting on my shares for a while. In fact, my oldest lot is about 160 days old. That compares to an average holding period of 26 days for all positions opened and closed in 2012, so I'm anxious to get rid of those shares. Why in the world I would think of adding more is beyond me, other than I think I can turn them over quickly at this price and write down some of the paper losses on older shares.

    Good luck with YUM, it reports 2/4. It is a perennial favorite of mine and I have shares with both $62.50 and $65 calls written on them.

    MKC is a local company and people around here live and die for their Old Bay. I've always liked the company but it has had a thin options market so I haven't spent too much time focusing on shares. If their options market was more liquid I would have very strongly considered picking up shares after the recent drop
    Feb 2 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Yum Earnings Announcement Next Week [View article]
    I used to check the Scientific Citation Index on a regular basis to see how often my publications were being cited in the literature.

    Who knew that years later I'd be checking Seeking Alpha?

    I find your sytematic approach to earnings very intriguing. I've also recently carried out earnings related trades on eBay and Starbucks (but didn't have the intestinal fortitude for Herbalife), and while pleased with the outcome, did not compare favorably to your ROI. While you are looking for opportunities where the price movement will not exceed 5%, I typically look for opportunities where the movement may be 10% or more, in either direction, exchanging small likelihood of such moves with smaller ultimate returns.

    Although I swore years ago to eschew the purchase of options, other than as closing transactions, I may be tempted to look for the type of opportunities that you've highlighted. However, you clearly have much more patience to understand and then describe the underlying stories and situations which may impact upon potential price movement.
    Jan 30 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment