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George Acs

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  • Keeping Beta At Bay [View article]
    I did indeed, still get my Brattle Theater newsletter.

    At some point I wish my "I'm a lover and not a fighter" attitude would kick in, as I'd really like to be totally immersed in the love-fest, but I just can't bring myself to go all in and certainly not without cover.

    There were no inappropriate metaphors in the previous paragraph.
    Nov 24, 2013. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keeping Beta At Bay [View article]
    Unfortunately, people believe that statins alleviate the need to actually change behavior and they believe that there are outcomes, such as the extension of life expectancy that ensue. Neither of those are universal truths. Certain populations, such as those with pre-existing cardiovascular disease, such as coronary artery disease, can exhibit increased life expectancy related to statin use
    Nov 24, 2013. 11:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keeping Beta At Bay [View article]
    It can be a little maddening when you see the numbers all over the place on different sites as they use different time frames in performing the regression analysis. Since beta is best as a short term indicator I prefer a beta that uses a shorter term time frame, but good luck trying to find out what that time frame happens to be from the particular site that you may be using.

    Yahoo! for example, reportedly uses a 3 year frame, where available.
    Nov 24, 2013. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keeping Beta At Bay [View article]
    And I can't stop snacking on things that can only drive cholesterol higher, while the treadmill collects cobwebs.

    Do I know better? Presumably, but you'd never know it.
    Nov 24, 2013. 08:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keeping Beta At Bay [View article]
    While I agree with the tautology, I don't quite get the relevance of the link and my circa 1960s brain still interprets TM as Transcendental Meditation, while my Seeking Alpha brain sees it as Toyota Motors.
    Nov 24, 2013. 08:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keeping Beta At Bay [View article]
    While I do agree with you, my public health background adds one more issue to the equation.

    That is the lack of perfect judgment, which makes the mind impervious even to perfect knowledge..

    While a reasonably educated or intelligent adult may make educated and intelligent choices regarding their own lives, not everyone has the ability to understand the consequences of their actions. Whether due to age or intellectual ability once you get hooked by nicotine, alcohol, crack or sodium, it's not terribly easy to then let the rational portion of your brain take over the decision process.

    If you're looking for axioms in which to believe, you can start with "The mind is willing, but the body is weak."
    Nov 24, 2013. 08:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keeping Beta At Bay [View article]

    I gave up following CPB a few years ago, not as a reflection of the company, but rather because I could never get a satisfactory option premium. I still look at shares in the week or so before an ex-dividend date to see whether the combination of premium and dividend could justify a purchase.

    In terms of the logic involved, I thing you're right.

    However, if I had to make a choice between CPB and PM, I think that I would prefer PM. In addition to its technicals looking better (see 50 dma relative to 200 dma for CPB), I think PM has better price supports in terms of percentage drops from current price.

    Then of course is the question of which company kills more of its customers. At least no one dies of second hand sodium overload
    Nov 24, 2013. 07:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keeping Beta At Bay [View article]
    I agree that it would be nice to see TAP a little lower. One of the hardest things to do when routinely selling calls is to know when to accept the fact that shares are not going to get back to where you believed it was fairly priced. I'm still waiting for Visa.

    Sometimes you end up chasing price because you believe the stock has merit and that perhaps it was under-priced at the time that you initially made the purchase, causing you to under-estimate its value, yet cling to the notion that the value was appropriate.

    However, in the case of TAP on reason that I mentioned perhaps sticking with the weekly, rather than using the expanded options ths coming week is that I'd rather hold those shares for a shorter time than a longer one, reducing the time for people to realize that they had driven price up too high.
    Nov 23, 2013. 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keeping Beta At Bay [View article]

    It is harder to keep up when not everything is committed to stocks, but you really do have to look at things as an ongoing contest and the need to pace yourself for the long term. Whatever percent here or there in return that may be missed during a rally can be easily made up when going on a shopping spree at a distress sale.
    Nov 23, 2013. 03:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keeping Beta At Bay [View article]
    You are assuming that the end user can't have their behavior further eroded and make more efficient use of existing inventory. Come on, let's think out of the box and help place more people in them.

    Hey, that could be the ad campaign.
    Nov 23, 2013. 03:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keeping Beta At Bay [View article]
    Seems that alcohol and cigarettes have the momentum on that one, especially if you adjust for the age of the victim.
    Nov 23, 2013. 12:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keeping Beta At Bay [View article]
    In general I prefer to do covered calls, but it's only a preference, nothing really based on hard data. During certain market or stock cycles I could certainly see the role of puts over covered calls. The one thing that I have noticed recently is that for puts that I've sold that have become deep in the money, due to low volatility it's been challenging to execute a rollover trade at a net credit. While the same has been true when trying to roll over calls for out of the money positions, It hasn't seemed to be of the same degree.

    One thing that I've not looked at is whether there can be the same inefficiency in put option pricing during the ex-dividend period. With calls that is frequently found.
    Nov 23, 2013. 12:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keeping Beta At Bay [View article]
    Thanks. There are lots of ways to make money. Share movement doesn't have to be the only mechanism, but we're so ingrained t to think that to be the case, that the beauty of mediocrity is so often overlooked.
    Nov 23, 2013. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gotham's Allegation Against Tile Shop Are Without Merit [View article]
    While the validity of Gotham City's report may take time to be known, I did admire the rigor and the over-riding thesis and the manner in which it was presented (with some exceptions, such as the use of an "illustrative" invoice for "fake inventory.")

    In general, I believe that we need more sentinels to point out irregularities and to ask the questions that can peel away layers of subterfuge.

    What gives me concern, however, is how a credibility litmus test can be bypassed and a market reacts in a fashion that may not be entirely warranted.

    Even Muddy Waters, which had established some credibility has had some very big misses and has caused considerable and tangible harm. One has to wonder how a thesis presented with so much authority, as had been the case with SPRD, FMCN and perhaps, NQ, could end up not being borne out. One also has to question the motivation when short selling is part of the investment strategy and is complemented by the public release of scathing materials.

    Of course for those that had invested in those stocks followed the crowd in fear and dumped shares there is no joy in the ultimate lack of validation of the accusations.

    If Gotham City is correct in its assertions I hope that it is one of many appropriately presented future reports that will build a body of credible work.
    Nov 19, 2013. 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gotham's Allegation Against Tile Shop Are Without Merit [View article]

    I'm not a terribly avid believer in technical analysis, as it has poor predictive value. What you may cite as a formation portending a decline is the kind that is characterized by high false positive and high false negative readings. In fact, the July 23 to Sept 9 chart may have suggested exactly the same as Sept 27 to Nov 14, but led to a move higher.

    The move in TTS shares started concurrent with the publication of Gotham City's article. Coincidence? Perhaps, The first Tweet that I saw coming from someone with a very credible reputation referring to the article was at 9:56 EST. The real plunge started at about 10:05 AM

    I don't disagree with the concept of ignoring certain points when using stocks as trading vehicles.Iin fact, I tend to be agnostic regarding fundamentals and technicals in my active trading, the credibility of Gotham is certainly a fair question as it raises concerns about overt stock manipulation.

    For the trader, as I mentioned in my earlier comment, there can often be an opportunity that isn't related to issues of reporting accuracy at all, but rather related to fleeing investors and the time ultimately necessary to put the issue to rest, one way or another.

    In this case the turnaround was so fast that I never found the opportunity to sell puts as the appropriate strikes weren't available until Monday morning, at which time the shares were already rising. However, for those that used TTS as an investment, rather than a trade, there may have been immeasurable harm created if it can be demonstrated that Gotham City was reckless in its allegations, or perhaps planted the suspicions in order to manipulate the market
    Nov 19, 2013. 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment