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George Acs

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  • Love Fest And Victory Tour [View article]

    If only my grade school teachers, armed with steel edged rulers, would have appreciated that style, I wouldn't be the sociopathic psychopath that I am.
    Jul 21 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Love Fest And Victory Tour [View article]
    I haven't owned HAS, nor MAT for years and do not currently follow either.

    I continue to hold FCX, but haven't added to the positions. I was quoted in an Eric Jackson Barrons article as calling FCX my top pick in 2013, so I have a long way to go to get this one right. As it is I had the S&P going up 100 to 1550, so I'm not doing too well.
    Jul 20 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Love Fest And Victory Tour [View article]
    Well, Chanos is often referred to as the anti-Buffett, but that may not extend to personal wardrobe. For a short seller he has more of a human quality than I would expect.

    Nelson Peltz reminds me of a wise grandfatherly type, who means well, but in so doing may benefit himself more than his beneficiaries.
    Jul 20 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Love Fest And Victory Tour [View article]
    Odd then, that management would have chosen to increase dividend by 15% effective this past quarter? Seems as if that would be the sort of thing that wouldn't have escaped their attention.

    I'm generally inclined to dismiss widely available and long standing information that hasn't impacted stock price. It reminds me a bit of the arguments used to cite how Apple was under-priced when trading near $700 on the basis of its sector related low P/E.

    Yes, makes sense, everyone knows about it, but rational behavior sometimes has no place in share pricing.
    Jul 20 07:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blame The Big Man [View article]
    I tend to be pessimistic and want to capture a premium whenever I am able to, although not at the expense of an overall capital loss.

    Specifically, if I have positions that are close to their strike price, but appear to be ready to expire, I would rather roll them over and ensure that I get a decent premium than to take my chances and see share price drop on Monday and eliminate the likelihood of getting that premium, especially for a weekly option.

    In the case of contracts that expire and then open sharply higher on Monday, if there is additional premium advantage to selling ITM, I would do that. However, for the past 3 months that hasn't been the case.

    But additionally, if you are feeling bullish you can either sell the OTM strike or you can split the difference by doing both ITM and OTM strikes and potentially derive the best of all worlds.

    CAT will be one of the selections in this coming week. You were not alone in being assigned at 85. Too bad Chanos couldn't drive shares lower.
    Jul 19 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beating A Dead Horse To Life [View article]
    I do like to weave personal elements into most everything.

    This isn't meant as a plug for my book (although pretty much everything I do is a plug for something), but I couldn't have imagined writing a book on the virtues of any investing strategy without some story telling to at least keep my interest.

    Experiences and anecdotes can be more useful than data in some situations, or at least more illustrative and more likely to connect with a casual observer.

    Besides, after about 20 years of scientific writing for publications and grants, it's incredibly releasing to not be bound by certain conventions.
    Jul 15 05:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beating A Dead Horse To Life [View article]
    Aflac was one of my favorite stocks for a long time, always selling calls and collecting dividends on shares. But I've been waiting far too long for it to come back to the level that my most recent shares were assigned, which I'm ashamed to say was at $40 a bit more than a year ago.

    Sometimes that happens, but fortunately not too often.

    I don't recall if it was in response to one of your comments or to someone else very recently, but if you have some core long term holdings, especially that pay solid (and safe) dividends, you can really get a nice enhancement by considering selling LEAPS against the shares.

    I tend to look at the 2 year high and if shares are near that level I consider seeking a strike price 2 levels or more higher than that 2 year peak.

    For example, with Aflac shares are currently at their 2 year high at about $59. A January 2014 $65 call option yields a premium of $1.08 and the likelihood that you would also still receive the August and November dividends as well, which would also then serve to create an effective strike price of $65.70

    The January 2015 $70 call has a $2 premium in addition to the 6 dividend payments.

    If you use DRIP, take a look at this article from about a year ago

    One of my happiest moments took place at a Minnesota State Fair. about 30 years ago. I don't recall which county, although it may have been Hennepin. They had a huge steamer and chute from which corn on the cob flowed out into a big vat of drawn butter. Best of all, it was free.

    Ah, memories.
    Jul 15 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blame The Big Man [View article]
    Thanks, I would blush, but between the hypertension and the near 100 degrees weather, you would never know I was doing so.

    I actually did sell Aug 17, 2013 $450 Apple calls after shares reacted to the news that there was a wave of hiring going on, possibly for an iWatch project. I would have been a little more secure in having done so had Apple already released the exact ex-dividend date, but I'm assuming it will be anywhere from 8/8 to 8/12, although there's not exactly a lot of historical data to user as guidance.

    I'm still open to the possibility of selling puts going into earnings, but awaiting the July 26 options to get a better idea of what the implied move will be. The August 17, 2013 suggests a 7% move, but that won't be as accurate as the data from the upcoming weekly.
    Jul 15 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blame The Big Man [View article]
    You're welcome. I'm not quite sure what I did, other than to read your comment that had some good ideas

    Admittedly, I don't get involved in more complex strategies. I'm very simple minded and couldn't tell you the difference between butterflies, condors, etc..

    I still confuse strangles and straddles, as well.

    I do agree with you that Apple shares at $400, if it gets to that point upon earnings, may be a very good point to add shares or open a new position.. Although I hope to position myself in the event of an APple drop next Monday, I'm actually expecting a rise in shares.
    Jul 15 07:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blame The Big Man [View article]
    I haven't been to the track in about 20 years.

    Paid for my first year of dental school with track proceeds. Used to go every night, always betting the #1 horse and adjusting size of bet at the last moment. Was profitable, but very tiring and essentially became a job, erasing love of the trotters.

    Anyway, It's always hard with cash on hand when prices are so high. I've been starting each week with about 40% cash, having worked up from typical 20% after weekly assignments, because I've wanted to be less fully invested, in event of a sharp drop. I've gone down as low as about 25% awaiting expiration Fridays.

    Conceivably this coming Friday, if prices stay where they are, I will likely be closer to 60% cash to start the August cycle. That's way too much to have on the table and certainly way too much to invest at these levels.

    As far as problems in life, ours aren't so bad.
    Jul 14 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blame The Big Man [View article]
    In the case of adding new shares, the argument is a bit harder to make.

    However, if shares are a core holding (as any good Minnesotan) one of the things to consider is looking at LEAP premiums, either Jan 2014 or even 2015.

    I often like to think in terms of LEAPS when dealing with long term holdings that pay good dividends and that I'm not likely to sell any time soon because of an inherent belief in the longer term performance of the company.

    When doing so, I typically look to see where the high point is over the past two years and if the current price is near that, will go perhaps 2 strike levels above the current price, especially if 2 strike levels takes you above the 2 year high.

    In Target's case, it is at about a 2 year high at $72.56

    The January 2014 $77.50 call offers $1.42 and the $80 offers $0.93
    The January 2015 $85 gives $2 and the $90 offers $1 premium.

    In the meantime between now and January 2014 there will be two dividend payments (that also reduce price further from strike) and 6 dividends until 2015, in which case the equivalent strike actually becomes more than $2 higher.
    Jul 14 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blame The Big Man [View article]
    That was pretty funny, although if the cows had any rationally constructive thought processes they would have stampeded in the direction of those guys. After a few seconds of listening to that I think I would have discovered my deeply latent violent tendencies.
    Jul 14 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blame The Big Man [View article]

    I'll let you know on July 23rd. However closing out the positions the next day (I assume you mean the option position) would only work if shares went down significantly (and you used a short term option). If shares go higher you might be faced with taking a loss by closing out your option position.

    I currently have uncovered shares at $445 cost basis, less accumulated premiums. I'm hoping for a little bit of strength going into earnings and would like to sell an August 17, 2013 option in order to try and capture dividend, get a little bit greater option premium and also offer some time for shares to recover in the event of adverse price movement after earnings.

    Ordinarily I like to use a weekly option.

    In Apple's case once Friday rolls around I'll be looking at the possibility of selling out of the money puts in advance of earnings. If I see a 1% weekly premium in exchange for a 10% drop or less in shares, I may go that route.
    Jul 14 11:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blame The Big Man [View article]

    But as we all most wonder, is it really a coincidence that they've never been photographed together?
    Jul 14 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blame The Big Man [View article]
    Bernanke? I think he may have the Greenspan persona and look nailed.

    I can actually imagine Woody as Greenspan testifying to Congress and saying something incredibly opaque and then turning to the camera and saying "I have no idea what any of that meant. What is it with these people? Why are they eating it up? Let me try this one and see if any of the young interns slips me her phone number."
    Jul 13 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment