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George Acs  

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  • Twitter Fatigue [View article]
    AS they used to say "if you're not paying for itis, then you are the product."
    May 2, 2014. 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter Fatigue [View article]
    Obviously, there can be a wide range of experiences.

    One of the shortcomings is that Twitter has done an absolutely horrible job of educating people how to best use the platform and what can be done with it as an entertainment or informational tool.

    As with Facebook, you can actually develop of community of "friends" and you can share things with them, whether links to articles, photos, jokes, etc. The real utility comes in when you find like minded or complimentary people or resources that are constructive, helpful, funny, etc.. rather than nasty, derogatory, etc..

    Ultimately, I think that the more people you "follow" the more dilute and meaningless is the experience. Instead of getting caught up in the numbers, as many do, just go for quality.
    May 2, 2014. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter Fatigue [View article]
    I think the secret is finding the right people to follow and who will also engage with you either directly or by re-tweeting or "favoriting" something you've said.

    As you find some of those people it suddenly becomes not just useful, but fun, too.

    Still, you have to work at it to get that engagement, but it really is egalitarian. Once someone of stature sees that you're not a "troll" they will constructively engage with you and it's actually very nice seeing those interactions get spread through the network of connections.

    Now, if they can just figure out how to consistently make money.
    May 2, 2014. 12:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter Fatigue [View article]
    Thank you. I obviously enjoyed writing it, because I just could stop doing so.
    May 2, 2014. 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter Fatigue [View article]
    Very nice.

    There are many ways to skin a cat and being long shares at the right time is the traditional way and works just fine.

    The range of strategies can be an embarrassment of riches and one can be found for every temperament.

    I happen to really, really like covered options, whether buy/write or covered puts and especially love seeing stocks that show no net movement over time generate really great gains.

    It's just another way.
    May 2, 2014. 12:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter Fatigue [View article]
    Thank you.

    There are advantages and disadvantages to both variety, but ever since they've been on the scene I've come to use the weekly options much more than the monthly, especially with volatility so low and generally less time value on the longer contracts.

    I especially like those positions that also have expanded weekly options, as that really creates many more paths, especially when looking for rollovers.

    I'm not certain what stance you're referring to regarding Facebook. It was a stock that I was long and defended the decision, prior to the first big lock up expiration. However, most recently my participation has been through put sales.

    I, on the other hand, always look to sell, as I don't begrudge Uncle Sam and want to secure profits, having seen far too many evaporate. However, I believe in serial buy and hold, whereby the same position is owned (or sold short) over and over again, mostly generating return via dividends and especially option premiums.

    As far as Twitter goes, I follow very few people and almost exclusively in finance. I value their opinions on a range of topics and value their humor and engagement. But when it comes to real news, like you say, and as we've learned in the past, it can be hit or miss regarding the validity of what's been tweeted, so it's best not to get terribly excited when reading something.

    "Trust, but verify" has lots of applications. Twitter is one place where that axiom is well suited to be applied.
    May 2, 2014. 12:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Heating Up The Cold War [View article]
    Well, now that you put it like that, I suppose not.
    May 2, 2014. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter Fatigue [View article]
    But why do you think that those groups are representative?

    I don't have the statistics at hand, and am too lazy to look them up, but about a week or two ago some data was released that showed a very large and surprising proportion of registrants didn't Tweet and, therefore, didn't contribute to revenue.

    It may be a "must have," as for a news feed, but that's not going to pay the bills and it's not going to generate profits.

    Twitter has acknowledged the problem with user growth and engagement. The fact that the program may have significant utility isn't at issue. It's more an issue of how it is used and whether or not that use can be a money machine.
    May 2, 2014. 12:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter Fatigue [View article]
    The original version of this article appeared in the form of 127 Tweets.

    No wonder I keep losing followers.

    But after your long work-out getting through this, it's nice to know that at least Twitter has been reasonably kind to both of us, even though there's a sort of perverse delight in prospering when price is under attack.

    I think that the lock-up will just bring renewed opportunity, as did earnings and as do most sheduled events. If Facebook can offer any parallels it may simply be that we can overstate the need for people to cash out.

    WHere there may be a difference, is that I sense that the more plebian FB insiders believed that their company was destined for much more than a hideous IPO and 50% stock plunge, while I'm not so sure about the more lowly TWTR insiders.
    May 2, 2014. 12:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Heating Up The Cold War [View article]
    Who said I was accomplished?

    Try to stay on topic. I don't see any mention of Apple in this article. Nor do I see any indication that you speak for others, as many would agree, that having 20% of your holdings in a single stock may not make you the most credible of spokespersons, particularly for those interested in balancing reward with risk, which is generally what I tend to focus upon.

    Based on your previous assertion that you added 15% to your existing Apple position just prior to that run higher, I would imagine the previous holding, which would have therefore, represented approximately 17% of your portfolio, was all purchased with equally perfect timing at Apple's near term low of about $380.

    I would imagine further that, precluding the possibility that you chased shares higher at any point, is the further unlikely scenario that you endured the fall from $700, thereby avoiding seeing a large portion of your portfolio miss the 2012-2013 market's rally, as only an exemplar of perfect timing could attest.
    I suppose you should be applauded for having the courage to commit such a large portion of your portfolio to shares so recently, or am I missing a more complete picture?

    However, selling a portion of your shares after the run higher due to the announcement of a 7 to 1 split sounds like a wise idea and is likely to be the kind of profit that many who get in after the announcement and certainly after the split are going to be unlikely to achieve. Of course, that was part of the hypothesis discussed in a previous article that suggested that the time may once again have arrived for Apple to be an excellent covered option trade, rather than a capital appreciation trade Your taking profits would be consistent with the belief that there is a reasonable chance that the run higher won't be sustained.

    I'm on the sidelines, as I don't chase stocks and expect little further benefit to ownership between now and the time of the split. However, Apple has historically fared well in the immediacy of its ex-dividend date, so I am considering a buy/write next week utilizing a weekly contract and an in the money option, as a means of potentially receiving both the dividend and the premium during a planned short holding period.

    But you're still angry, aren't you, so now you've come here. You may notice, that by and large, people are nice here, even the ones who called me a "Republican."

    But I should thank you for the private messages I received in response to some of your earlier comments in that Apple article. I guess people didn't want to expose themselves to any missives from you sent in their direction. Perhaps some of them were among that worthless class of people to whom you referred and took some exception.

    They had some funny and nice things to say.
    May 2, 2014. 04:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Raining Earnings, Hallelujah [View article]
    Wow. Way too complex for me. So many things being balanced and with so many different needs. Even when everything is humming along according to plan so much thinking. I just can't do that anymore.

    When I moved to simplicity and stopped over-intellectualizing the process, it became really easy to stick to the strategy, although we've all been to that place where there's just not enough freed up cash to implement strategy, because of some really unexpected price movements.

    Good luck getting back on track.
    May 2, 2014. 01:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Raining Earnings, Hallelujah [View article]
    No, that's not the case. You seek to rollover so that the new premium received in excess of the difference between the previous premium received less the cost to buy back and close out that option. You can also have a net profit when the new sale premium isn't part of the equation, particularly if the rollover is done at a price that's near the money.

    The net should be positive and should increase you cumulative ROI.

    I keep spreadsheets on such trades and track the individual components of the trades associated with a particular position as it was initially established and then followed through its subsequent generations (see for example with MCP for the trade by trade and accounting mechanism)

    Keeping the spreadsheets tells me for each leg of a trade sequence what the ROI is and how that may be impacted by a new rollover.

    As a rule of thumb I like to try to keep a 1% ROI with each additional roll. The greater a position is in the money when trying to do so, during a period of low volatility, the more difficult that objective will be. Ultimately, I want the cumulative experience to surpass that of the S&P 500 for the same time period.

    The ideal, when rolling over to avoid assignment would to also be able to roll down to a lower strike level. I recently did that with Twitter going from $47 to $43.5 and was still able to maintain my ROI goal because the forward week premium was enhanced by earnings due to be reported that week.

    However, you can also seek to go to a longer time frame than the weekly that I usually favor. Doing so will provide greater premium and may also allow a lower strike level even if there isn't an associated event driving premiums.
    May 1, 2014. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Raining Earnings, Hallelujah [View article]
    I tend to stick strictly with the out of the money puts. There's no guessing on direction, it's just magnitude of the move and lower costs than having to play both calls and puts. Granted the upside may be limited on a per trade basis, but they accumulate.

    I just rolled over my $43.50 Twitter to next week and will likely see the $33 expire tomorrow.

    Putting final touches on article that chronicles a few months of selling TWTR puts, including roll overs that looks at how those premiums accumulate. Next week will be interesting with potential lock up expiration volatility, but if shares go lower it's just another opportunity to roll and collect.
    May 1, 2014. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Raining Earnings, Hallelujah [View article]
    It's those history of gaps that create those bigger than expected Implied Volatility ranges and the subsequent opportunities. Once you learn to stop fearing or hating them they really can become a good friend, although it can get a little unnerving when you see sudden changes in direction as the earnings results are being digested.

    You can go from smug to idiot in a single trade and I'm hoping to cash in on YELP before anyone has second thoughts.
    May 1, 2014. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Raining Earnings, Hallelujah [View article]
    Absolutely right, but those are the kind of companies that are really appealing to trade, especially in advance or immediately after earnings, through the sale of puts. They can be high maintenance kind of trades and can be a little nerve provoking but when the dust settles you sometimes wonder why you don't just do that sort f trade exclusively.
    Apr 30, 2014. 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment