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George Acs  

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  • Nothing To See Here [View article]
    There were a number of things in your comment that I can really identify with and I think are key with any strategy.

    One is patience.

    The other is having a large list of "go to" companies. I call them my "old reliables" and don't mind serially going back to the same ones over and over again. I especially like looking at total return of a particular stock that may have been bought and had calls sold (or sold puts) on 7, 8, 9 or more occasions and then figuring out the actual yield based on the cumulative number of days the position may have been held though those various transactions.

    The final thing is that it's incredibly useful to have both goals and objectives. When I first started there was a specific profit level I had in mind for each trade. Later it evolved into a specific ROI as well as how it fared when compared to the S&P 500 for the period of holding.

    Many ways to go about the game, but rules and structure really do help.
    Feb 24, 2014. 03:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nothing To See Here [View article]
    Thanks.

    I think.

    Although there is a certain sense of "road kill" contained in all of my articles, which makes them so hard to resist even though you know that nothing good can come from it other than awakening at night in a cold sweat.
    Feb 24, 2014. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nothing To See Here [View article]
    Alas, Yorick, I don't know if your supposition is really based in fact. Federal Reserve intervention, specifically Quantitative Easing, is a relatively new phenomenon. The uncoupling of markets from fundamentals may have preceded overt intervention.
    Feb 24, 2014. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nothing To See Here [View article]
    If you're using out of the money puts then the premium may be significantly less. Additionally, very often the put premium doesn't fully reflect the price decrease that dividend paying shares will undergo as going ex-dividend. While that inefficiency in pricing also exists for many call options, in the case of a call seller it may be to their benefit, while to a put seller it may be to their detriment, putting them at greater risk of assignment.
    Feb 24, 2014. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    So your the guy who bought the book?

    For an existing holding that you have decided to not take profits upon and that is approaching earnings, I sometimes look at longer term option contracts rather than the weekly, which is precisely what you've done.

    In the event of a sudden earnings related decline you will have until March 22, 2013 to await a price recovery and opportunity to sell contracts again, or could take profits on the contract upon a potential earnings decline and wait for a recovery to sell new 3/22/14 contracts. The milking part can be fun, but I don't do it much anymore, as I use more weekly contracts these days, which weren't available at the time the book was written.

    Where we may differ is that even in the days before I was using a covered call strategy I would likely have taken (some) profits, as you're up about 45%. On the other hand, you've already secured about $8.90 in premiums, which some would look at as an advance against profits.

    Either way, nicely done. Good luck with earnings.
    Feb 24, 2014. 07:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    It's a matter of risk and reward. I am advising that people manage the downside and prepare for the possibility of ownership and subsequent management of shares that could just as easily experience the downside as they may experience the upside.

    Ultimately,there's no reason to give up anything. Anyone can customize their own investment strategy by simply not devoting all resources toward a single vision or approach. For those also interested in the potential upside, in exchange for understanding there is concomitant risk, they can certainly pursue strategies to go after that upside while still pursuing more conservative and hedged strategies. It doesn't have to be "all or none."

    I prefer lots of "singles" as opposed to the occasional home run and strikeouts.
    Feb 24, 2014. 07:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    If there is such certainty that guidance will be increased on Thursday after your 12 years of trading you should probably then know that it would either be a "non-event" on the news or a sell-off in the making.

    As far as what direction the movement is in, if you read this article, it doesn't really matter if your objectives are aligned to those I've defined. It's the magnitude of the movement, not the direction. And you didn't have to pay for the potential insight.

    You're welcome.
    Feb 24, 2014. 07:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    I don't follow QCOR. It doesn't really have that much options activity.

    There was, however,some relatively large activity in the well out of the money 2/28 $85 call that closed with nearly a $1 spread between the bid and ask, which probably indicates a single party transaction making a large bet on at least an 11% move higher.
    Feb 23, 2014. 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    As I mentioned in the article the potential trades listed here specifically disregard any substantive consideration of technical or fundamental analyses.

    The option market reflects the split between bulls and bears on the stock going into earnings and that split is even.

    Who can tell not only what the earnings and guidance will look like but also what kind of reaction will be generated? That's why the option market is split, although the volume and distribution seems to be favoring a bullish sentiment
    Feb 23, 2014. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    Casinos are content with slim margins. While they may want to get your money they also give it back, albeit in redistributed form for most.
    Feb 23, 2014. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nothing To See Here [View article]
    While we've had an incredible expansion since 2009, I'm really hard pressed to see any 1929 parallels, nor 1987, 2002, 2008 etc..

    A correction in the 10-15% range shouldn't come as too much of a surprise, but I do agree that if it does occur it will simply be a stepping stone for renewed market appreciation.

    Since about July 2013 I've kept a "Cash-o-Meter" on my site to let subscribers know how much cash I've been keeping in reserve, as well as weekly indications of how much I'm willing to take that cash reserve down during the course of the week, hopefully replenishing it with share assignments.

    While keeping some cash on the side may temper potential participation in a rally that can easily be overcome by having it available during even modest retreats and certainly after or during a real correction.
    Feb 23, 2014. 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    Somehow, I think the house still has a decent and acceptable profit margin built into the proposition
    Feb 23, 2014. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    He won, like he usually did. I can't remember the game, although if I had the initiative I suppose I could find out what games were played in October 2004, but it was a college football game that had lots of lead changes.

    I was much more nervous that he, but I have less tolerance for a quarter in a slot machine than for 100,000 times worth the play in a stock position. The likelihood of losing it all in the stock position is pretty small as compared to the casino play.
    Feb 23, 2014. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    Not in performing the calculation itself. However, I would be curious why that was the case and would likely want to be on the other side of wherever the skew may be. Seeing a large differential in sentiment in advance of earnings should be rare.
    Feb 23, 2014. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    While your enthusiasm is commendable, when it comes to market behavior there's no such thing as a sure bet. Logic and rational thinking have nothing on the emotion that could just as easily match yours, but in expressing disappointment at the numbers or sometimes more importantly, the forward guidance.
    Feb 23, 2014. 08:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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