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George Acs

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  • Apple Shares Are A Screaming 'Bye' [View article]
    Please, don't say goodbye. I look to you as the means to escape this meaningless existence.
    Dec 12 06:46 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are A Screaming 'Bye' [View article]
    Thanks, but that said, in the case of Apple, since about $450 it may have been fear as my guide, or it may have been the belief that there were other opportunities with less downside risk. Is that fear or weighing options and assessing risk-benefit?

    Ultimately, it's about managing risk during a downturn. I would be curious to know how risk has been managed by those die hard "investors" since $700 came and went.

    Apple was and is a great company, but for its size, it is almost uniquely at risk for single product disappointments that could be devastating to its share price. It's not just the profits and losses, it's also the aura and the perceived invincibility of its share value.
    Dec 12 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are A Screaming 'Bye' [View article]
    I think that your bottom line is very reasonable. At the moment, Apple is behaving too erratically to provide a level of comfort. That comfort level may return, but it may very well be at a lower price than now.
    Dec 12 06:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are A Screaming 'Bye' [View article]
    Read the comments more closely. I have been a consistent Apple investor until about a year ago, having last owned shares at about $450 and having first owned shares at about $55.

    The patina started to fade for me.
    Dec 12 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are A Screaming 'Bye' [View article]
    Thanks, but perhaps I should have mentioned, for purposes of full disclosure that I own a 17 inch Philco black and white set and type articles on an Olivetti.
    Dec 12 06:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are A Screaming 'Bye' [View article]
    The secret to texting on a rotary phone is to remember that the letter "Q" is represented by the "#" on the dial.
    Dec 12 06:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are A Screaming 'Bye' [View article]
    So I guess the analogy was inappropriate the whole time? Good point. I knew the digital age would bear me out some day.
    Dec 12 06:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are A Screaming 'Bye' [View article]
    The argument about Apple trading cheaply on the basis of its P/E is as old as this century. There are those that strongly believe that the market will see the folly and shares will be propelled higher on that basis. They refuse to sell their shares in order to take profits in the belief that shares are being unjustly traded at too low of a multiple and in time the correction will come.

    The same argument has been used for a couple of generations on discounts seen in closed end mutual funds, but still those days of reasoning haven't arrived.

    It's probably reasonable to believe that the multiple is what it is because that's how a rational market values it to be. I wouldn't count on an "aha" moment.
    Dec 12 06:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are A Screaming 'Bye' [View article]
    You know me well. So far, though, people commenting to this article are reasonable (unlike some previous articles about half a year ago.)

    The funny thing is that from a few earlier articles some of the most boisterous comments came from those that have become consistent readers and very constructive commentators, despite the occasional differences in opinion.

    I agree with your price target and in the absence of horrible news would be very interested in picking up shares probably in the 400-425 range.
    Dec 12 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are A Screaming 'Bye' [View article]
    I think that anyone would be hard pressed to suggest how investors take their cues. While you may be able to precisely define an algorithm, the factors that prompt an "investor" or a "trader" into action are varied and most often inconsistently applied.

    By the same token someone who lives and breathes technical analysis may completely dismiss discussions of valuation or other fundamental metrics.

    My belief is that neither schools are able to show studies looking at specificity and sensitivity and are incapable of producing models with acceptable false positive and false negative rates.

    You certainly have addressed a particular methodology, but the valuation issue is also greatly misused by those that believe Apple is being valued too cheaply and they use that metric to justify their continued investment, rather than securing capital gains
    Dec 12 05:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are A Screaming 'Bye' [View article]
    So are you suggesting that I may possibly be less than 100% wrong?

    Apple doesn't necessarily introduce something new, just something better and more elegant. The hurdles that an Apple TV would have to overcome are so different from its previous successes that the risks of failure are tremendously compounded.

    Apple has never been a real share holder friendly company (at least not directly), so it could care less if it blows $20 billion, but for shareholders, that $20 billion loss is nothing compared to the drop in share price after the market's reception of slowed growth and strategic misfiring
    Dec 12 05:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are A Screaming 'Bye' [View article]
    The eyeballs are passionate, as well and that makes for a more interesting exchange.

    The topic of the Apple TV and its potential impact on shares became front and center on CNBC today, later in the afternoon, after Bernanke's press conference, so it was clearly fortuitous timing to submit the article, as well.

    Given that Gene Munster first speculated in 2009 about an Apple TV and the speed with which it has come back into focus, it will have an impact on shares one way or another. I read that on my Kindle at a red light.
    Dec 12 05:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are A Screaming 'Bye' [View article]
    Yours would be revisionist history.

    Business Week, for one, quotes Munster in April 2012 calling for $1,000 by 2014 and that Apple would become the world's first $1 trillion market cap company. In the latter regard, James Altucher beat him to the $1 trillion level, and even upped the ante to $2 Trillion
    Dec 12 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are A Screaming 'Bye' [View article]
    When can I expect your check (in lieu of a share of Zynga)? I take that as a firm and binding offer.
    Dec 12 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are A Screaming 'Bye' [View article]
    While you are right that I missed a significant rise in share price in the past year, you neglect to mention that I also avoided a significant price drop, as well. Not everyone can be a perfect market timer, but the days of being able to pick up Apple shares at any price and book profits has been absent for the past 8 months.

    With regard to factual accuracy, from about March-April 2012 Gene Munster was an ubiquitous on -air presence touting Apple and he was among the first, certainly the most influential, to broach the $1,000 level by 2014... It won't take much time for you to search on line to find his support of the $1,000 price level for Apple shares.. A $900 target was "re-iterated" early today by Munster. Unless you are a short seller, $900 is less than $1,000.

    Your closing paragraph does little to advance a position, other than my own. Your supposition is compounded, in that you predicate on whether Apple can actually bring such a product to market, it "may" have another hit.

    s far as stock price goes, I believe a lot is riding on another hit. This particular one is far more well established on anyone's radar screen than its previous blockbusters and is much more ripe for disappointment. People had no clue what an mp3 player or tablet were or what expectations they should have for performance. Everyone knows what a TV is and everyone has preconceived notions, as well as a sense of pricing value.
    Dec 12 05:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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