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George Acs  

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  • Getting Back To Business [View article]
    That gives me concern, especially if it was Carter Braxton Worth.
    Oct 21, 2013. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Back To Business [View article]
    Thank you.

    I was initially pleased when news of the Plains purchase was made known and have remained so. I think that FCX has actually had good management and they have taken a move to add some diversification to the mix.

    Given price action in their underlying asset base I think the stock has actually performed very well and has made it easier to exercise patience.
    Oct 20, 2013. 09:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Back To Business [View article]
    The simple calculation works best with a weekly option contract.

    Go to the strike level that most closely corresponds to the current price. Add together the bids for both the put and the call option at that strike price and divide by the strike price. The result is the implied move. The simple method is not as accurate for longer contracts.
    Oct 20, 2013. 09:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Back To Business [View article]
    I agree. with the truism. A weak Christmas could hurt retailers.
    I think caution is warranted with every stock purchase, not just GPS. That may greatly explain why I like to cover all of my new purchases with call sales.
    Oct 20, 2013. 09:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Back To Business [View article]
    I mentioned that I don't look at charts very much more than a glance. I respect @wpspiker's response to your question and his reasoning, however, I really believe that chart analyses suffer from poor sensitivity and specificity. In hindsight they provide lots of false negatives and false positives and poor predictive value.

    But with that said, I do believe in patterns, especially long term patterns. The CLF chart appears to be completing a long term cycle and on its way toward beginning an upward movement. It has been trading in a stable range of late which hopefully is creating a new support level. But with earnings at hand, I think the best way to consider a play, using the speculative portion of a portfolio, is through the sale of out of the money puts, being prepared to either take ownership in the vent of a large price drop or to roll over the puts in an attempt to ride out a short term downturn through the collection of additional option premiums.
    Oct 20, 2013. 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Back To Business [View article]
    Back before weekly contracts were available VMW was a favorite. It fell out of favor for me until it recently started trading weekly contracts. I think it is a potentially good trade on Monday, especially if some or most of Friday's big advance is reversed.

    Broadcom isn't a stock that I follow, but it was the first stock my youngest son bought a couple of years ago. He barely got out of his 3 share position
    Oct 20, 2013. 08:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Back To Business [View article]
    But wait, I'm a liberal, so how's that going to work?
    Oct 20, 2013. 08:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Back To Business [View article]
    With good behavior you may only have 20-25 years to work on it.
    Oct 20, 2013. 08:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Back To Business [View article]
    Some states do provide orthodontic care under the Medicaid or S-CHPS program, however, you can be assured that no dentist is going to use an ALGN product to deliver that care to specific populations It is far too expensive, particularly since Medicaid reimbursement rates tend to be significantly lower than prevailing private practice fees. That will never be a market for ALGN, although it is potentially a large market, unless reimbursement rates are significantly increased or ALGN evolves its product technology to lower product cost significantly.

    The bottom line from an ethical perspective is that the end result of care be indistinguishable upon the basis of payment. There is no requirement, ethical or otherwise, to provide the same path to care based upon payment status.
    Oct 20, 2013. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Back To Business [View article]
    Since you asked, I'll volunteer my opinions.

    I think, that in general, the concept of the market being able to discount the future is entirely overstated. Our perceptions are entirely conjectural and we are great at using hindsight and revisionist history to make facts conform to our theories.

    I also don't think that most members of Congress "attempt to do harm to the US economy." I think that they simply don't care about any short term gyrations that their actions may cause, if their actions are beneficial to their interests, which are entirely focused on re-election, at least for House of Representative members.
    Oct 20, 2013. 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Back To Business [View article]
    I'm not certain that I agree with your third world premise. The cost of an Invisalign treatment is actually fairly expensive and in the US often is provided at a premium fee. The appliances (as multiple appliances are necessary) is not more easily in the reach of populations that are otherwise disenfranchised from care. In fact, it may further distance them.

    Traditionally, orthodontic therapy in most of the rest of the world, including Western Europe was through the use of simple removable appliances, such as retainers with adjusting springs and not what we in the US think of as braces. The retainers or more complex activator or functional appliances were far less expensive and delivered a less precise treatment outcome, but often meeting desired objectives that typically fell short of what could be accomplished with traditional braces.

    That kind of treatment approach was actually far less expensive in that far fewer visits and man hours were required. Additionally, what we think of as "orthodontists," which are a dime a dozen in US, were relatively rare in the rest of the world. The vast majority of orthodontic care in the rest of the world was and is provided by non-orthodontists.

    In the US general dentists had traditionally provided near the majority of care, but in the past 20 years that has decreased, up until recently, in large part due to ALGN.

    Additionally, dental care, including orthodontic care, where available is typically outside of the realm of any national health program, if one exists, in most countries. Dental care, especially discretionary care, was offered by the private sector, which was sanctioned or tolerated even in the Communist era.

    The beauty of ALGN is that it supplies a premium product that is in increasing demand by dentists and patients and is without meaningful competition. Are there opportunities in other countries? Absolutely, but only for those populations that can afford an even more expensive level of care.
    Oct 20, 2013. 01:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Back To Business [View article]
    As a Pediatric Dentist, I can tell you that ALGN is just a means to capitalize not on the mindset for "beautification" but rather to capture the need for additional, non-insurance related profit centers in dental practices, especially among non-orthodontists.

    The need for beautification has long been established. WHat ALGN offers is for dentists to provide an increasingly wide range of orthodontic services and now to a wider age range of patients, without the extensive training and education necessary to perform comprehensive orthodontic therapy.

    As I mentioned in last week's article, it allows a monkey to provide well re-imbursed services, that at least among pre-teen and adolescent populations aren't discretionary expenditures.
    Oct 20, 2013. 12:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Back To Business [View article]
    Thank you.

    I probably saved the spreadsheet open to last week's tab, rather than this week.. I have re-saved and reloaded it so that it should open to this week's tab first.

    Thanks again
    Oct 20, 2013. 11:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Back To Business [View article]
    Never waste the gains. I can tell you that with great hindsight certainty and I'm sure I'm not alone on that regard.

    I think you are right about tax related selling. It will likely keep a floor on price. I think, for example, that has also kept Apple shares lower, as the one year anniversary of hitting its peak price occurred in early September and the difference between a long term and short term capital loss is significant, perhaps another 50+ points on Apple to the upside for the investor sitting on the paper loss.
    Oct 20, 2013. 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Back To Business [View article]
    Thank you, yes you're absolutely right. They won't report for another 4 weeks.

    In the case of PETM it's hard to say that they were using budget theatrics as an excuse for revising their comps guidance. They referred to the "backdrop of a challenged consumer" and "soft traffic."

    That "backdrop" wasn't further defined as to whether it was specifically related to the then ongoing issues or reflective or a more systemic problem. If referring to the government shutdown you might expect that any adverse impact felt in product purchases at PETM would experience some catch-up, other than perhaps grooming or hotel services. I continue to look at the language used as being negative and perhaps reflecting an early sign of a more systemic problem.
    Oct 20, 2013. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment