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George Acs

 
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  • New York Post Rumors, The Dark Side And The FOMC [View article]
    It's not just the "Mister" it's also the way she says it, but it definitely gets my attention.

    I'm not certain how you'd be able to get the intonation just right in the Comments section.

    My goal was to get up to the 1 Million mark, so I suppose that if you stopped reading it would delay meeting that goal.

    A true win - win.
    Aug 4, 2013. 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Post Rumors, The Dark Side And The FOMC [View article]
    Thank you.

    No, with Baxter, as well as some of the others, I think there may be some value to selling September 2013 options, rather than weekly or August 2013. I don't usually go out that far with the time frame, but in some of the instances mentioned in this article the September may offer better value.

    The attached spreadsheet always looks at ROI at different strikes and where available weekly and monthly contracts. FOr the ones listed in this article I also included some September expirations for the individual investor to decide where the best ROI is for them based on factors that have individual weight
    Aug 4, 2013. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Post Rumors, The Dark Side And The FOMC [View article]
    Yes, I broke a cardinal rule of never reading anything on Seeking Alpha, either that, or my comment was just one of those incredible coincidences.

    I think we can all agree that when it comes to dealing with either Russia or China, the runaway cartel member should simply trust them to all share common self-interests.
    Aug 4, 2013. 12:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just How Smart Is The 'Smart Money'? [View article]
    The last time I recommended AIG was back in April 2013, on some price weakness. http://seekingalpha.co... Back then I moved it from being classified as a "Momentum" stock to a "Traditional" stock, befitting its less speculative nature and diminished risk to not bounce back from price drops.

    I've mentioned a number of times that Robert Ben Mosche has not only been a great leader at AIG, but exemplified the very best of corporate ethos.

    I think you're right and that there is still opportunity in ownership, however, I would consider waiting a bit to see where price goes after digesting the latest earnings and dividend re-instatement news
    Aug 3, 2013. 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Post Rumors, The Dark Side And The FOMC [View article]
    Thank you.

    Taking gains is an under-utilized strategy. Most every reason people elect to delay taking gains turns out to have been ill conceived in hindsight. One of the few things that o can guarantee in life is that paper gains disappear.
    Aug 3, 2013. 12:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Post Rumors, The Dark Side And The FOMC [View article]
    Thank you, but alas the weekly submissions on Seeking Alpha may be coming to an end as I count down toward a goal and milestone of 1,000,000 page views.

    But to get to your question (and by the way, it's Dr. Acs - my wife actually calls me Mr. Acs when she's mad at me), the simple way to get an estimate of implied move is best applied with a weekly option.

    Simply go to the nearest in the money strike prices for put and call options. Add their respective premiums together and then divide that amount by the strike price.

    In this case, using the Aug 9, 2013 $77.50 strike levels, you get premiums totaling $13,31 from the respective call and put options. Divide that by $77.50 and you get 13.3%

    There is a more complex way to calculate and that method can also be applied to longer term option contracts, but I'm happy to go the simplistic route.

    I'm not familiar with the stocks you mentioned, but that all sounds like a nice experience, with or without covered calls. I looked them up and am envious of your choices.
    Aug 3, 2013. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Post Rumors, The Dark Side And The FOMC [View article]
    Thank you.

    Isn't the ability to write like a child incredibly releasing? I wrote and edited professional manuscripts and grant proposals for years. The rigidity was terrible and made for difficult reading and writing.

    I do like your rule #1 - Don't panic. That applies in and out of the fertilizer industry. I also believe "no regrets" is a cardinal rule.

    I also agree that the decision to pull out of the cartel will result in a very untenuous situation in the failed pursuit of self-interest.
    Aug 3, 2013. 10:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Post Rumors, The Dark Side And The FOMC [View article]
    Personally, I believe that insider trading is a victimless crime (see http://seekingalpha.co... "Don't Blame Insider Trading Or Anything Else )

    But, I think that as long as the public perceives it to be unfair and stacks the cards against them, the SEC has to do much more than the occasional high profile case.

    There is barely a day when the crew on CNBC Fast Money doesn't point out unusual trading activity that coincidentally is perfectly time to precede substantive news.
    Aug 3, 2013. 10:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Post Rumors, The Dark Side And The FOMC [View article]
    Thank you.

    It depends on volatility. Back in 2007-2009 when volatility was very high I would sell out of the money calls. Back then the simple metric that I used was to look for a situation where either I received a 2% premium for a strike 5% out of the money or 1% premium for a 10% higher strike.

    These days with volatility so low I tend to wait for price appreciation before selling calls, however, I also like to add shares at lower prices and sell deeper in the money calls in an effort to have high probability of assignment which would help erode some of the paper losses on the original shares.
    Aug 3, 2013. 10:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Need Leadership [View article]
    Wait a second, if what you're calling successful prognostication is based upon predicting a cyclic nature of the economy, I can do that, too.
    Aug 1, 2013. 08:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Need Leadership [View article]
    You may also like this. Sounds similar to your own experience. This graphic represents 13 month experience trading RVBD as part of Option to Profit subscription

    http://bit.ly/17iB07K

    Adjusting the prices of open positions to the current $15.50, the cumulative return is 35%, which isn't too bad considering that the current price is about 6% below the average price of entry over the 13 months.

    Just finished discussion with subscriber about similar experience with Coach, on which we sold puts before earnings the other day, but in that case, there have been 12 trades for OTP subscribers since Aug 2012

    http://bit.ly/17iB07M
    Jul 31, 2013. 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Need Leadership [View article]
    You're welcome.

    I don't know if you saw the article I wrote that looked at my history with RVBD and gave a then 4 year history of ownership and option writing. I actually bought more shares today to add to a September 2013 covered position.

    "Why I No Longer Follow Jim Cramer." http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 31, 2013. 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Need Leadership [View article]
    Actually, you haven't quite gotten killed, as the contract expires August 17, 2013 or September 21, 2013 (as I mentioned even considering the use of a forward month) and not in the after hours following earnings release. It's pretty unlikely that you will be assigned early, especially if selling either the $15 or $16 puts, which based on today's closing premiums offered 1.6% and 3.5% ROIs, respectively.

    The "sweet spot," that is the strike price that would have delivered a 1% ROI (actually 0.9% in this instance), based on last Friday's closing prices (when thus article was submitted) was the $14 strike, which would have represented a 20% drop in share price, as opposed to the 15% that the option market was implying.

    But with 2 1/2 weeks to go until expiration, there's lots of opportunity for price rebound, as RVBD has consistently done over the past 5 years following earnings.

    You may have noticed that I said that I would be comfortable owning shares in the $15-16 range, in the event of potential assignment. If in the event you do get assigned and take ownership of shares (assuming you sold puts) then you simply turn around and sell calls on your new shares.

    The last time I did that with RVBD was October 31, 2012 when I sold puts that were subsequently assigned, then sold calls and ultimately had shares assigned away by December 21, 2012 for a 6.9% ROI. That's not too bad for less than 2 months.
    Jul 30, 2013. 11:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Need Leadership [View article]
    Thank you.

    I bought MOS last week and already had an existing lot close to $60, so I'm saturated in fertilizer.

    POT was one of a handful of losing positions for me in 2012. I remember that kind of thing and it takes me a long time to get over the bias that engenders.

    Broadcom was the very first stock that my youngest son bought. Other than following it at the time, I don't follow it, nor EXPE. I try to stick to a universe of about 75-100 stocks and retire a few each year, like POT, and bring in some replacements
    Jul 29, 2013. 07:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Need Leadership [View article]
    You better get to 62%, I'll be at 38% starting the morning and may work it down to 25-30% cash reserve.

    I'll bet the Yankee dugout and better yet the Mets dugout when Stengel and Berra were going at it must have been great, especially dealing with the frustration of the Mets.

    Casey Stengel is a forgotten source of one liners, like when talking about one time 20 year old prospect Greg Goosen, "In 10 years he has a chance to be 30."
    Jul 28, 2013. 01:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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