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George Acs  

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  • It's A New Day [View article]
    Yes and no.

    For my own trading I sometimes do roll the dice and try and collect crumbs http://seekingalpha.co...

    If I do so it's with the understanding that it can result in a loss. Therefore, I typically will only do it if there is some tax advantage to taking the loss that is greater than the probability of price recovery and if I believe that there is little chance of violating the wash rule.

    It's all a question of personal risk/reward tolerance. I don't make Trading Alert recommendations to subscribers to gather crumbs, because the risk/reward is really skewed toward risk.

    In terms of an article, I'm not certain how to structure one. In essence you are focusing on, what hopefully is a non-representative cohort of stocks, having eliminated positions that were assigned, presumably at a profit.
    Dec 23, 2013. 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's A New Day [View article]
    No, just on Cramer's set, until security was alerted. Most of the hostages are now fine.

    We were actually enrolled in Harvard graduate programs at the same time, but on opposite sides of the Cambridge River. At the time the closest I got to a future (business) celebrity was Meg Whitman. Now, academic celebrities, that's a different story.
    Dec 23, 2013. 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's A New Day [View article]
    I suppose I should have qualified that by saying that I was referring to liquidly traded positions, although yesterday, at his college graduation my youngest son received gold coins, which are also reasonably liquid and can be easily stored without additional cost in an existing safety deposit box.
    I actually like leveraged ETNs, although I certainly understand the additional time risk associated with their ownership. They are, however, great trading vehicles for those that actively monitor their positions.
    Their use is basically the only speculative play that I allow myself.
    Dec 23, 2013. 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's A New Day [View article]
    Good point. I haven't sold puts on CAT since Sept 2012, but those were at $87.50 when CAT was trading right where it currently is sitting.
    Dec 23, 2013. 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's A New Day [View article]
    I live a few miles from NSA, but they already knew that.

    The Target breach is just one of so many over the past few years and will simply be forgotten as there are so many more to come. These are non-events for the retailers. Target really acted proactively in this case and courted customers back in the best way possible.
    Dec 23, 2013. 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's A New Day [View article]
    Thanks. Right up there? Eh, not so sure. We were in Harvard graduate schools at the same time, but on different sides of the Cambridge River. Although, http://bit.ly/1fUCSu5
    Dec 23, 2013. 08:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's A New Day [View article]
    It's useful in cases where you believe that your stock has been oversold and seek a quick way to make back some of the paper gains.

    See: http://seekingalpha.co...

    The scenario you offer is one that is applicable for every stock. That's the concept of opportunity cost. You enter into a trade because at the time you believe it is the best use of your money. It's only in hindsight whether you know that to be the case, or not.

    I do look at every trade, once completed, to see how it fared versus the S&P 500 for the period of holding to assess the opportunity cost, if any. Some trail, some win, but thus far for 2013 the average position(292 closed lots) beat the S&P 500 by 0.7%, which is down from 2012.
    Dec 23, 2013. 08:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's A New Day [View article]
    I believe that there's a small place for precious metals in every portfolio, even covered option portfolios. GIven the often cyclical nature of the pricing, the real risk comes with misjudging where in the cycle you stand when a purchase is made. Being on the wrong side can mean a longer period than ideal awaiting a rebound and the ability to generate meaningful premiums.
    Dec 22, 2013. 08:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's A New Day [View article]
    It's the third time in a row that they've done that sort of thing. FAST was originally going to appear in this article, however, I have a rule that I won't hold more than 3 lots of any single stock. In this case, I went to bed on Thursday evening expecting to lose all three lots of FAST at $47 and was prepared to re-buy at $48 or so.

    Instead, I rolled over the $47 contract to January 18, 2014 at a net additional premium of 2%. My expectation is that at earnings on Jan 15, 2014 it will again fall a bit, as it has in past after lower guidance, but that will again be seen as an entry level.
    Dec 22, 2013. 08:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's A New Day [View article]
    I tend to look at implied volatility only in advance of earnings and sometimes mention the IV relative to the option premium available outside of the expected price range. See http://seekingalpha.co... for a more in depth discussion, using Facebook as an example of the application of implied volatility.

    Thank you for the kind words and wishes. Happy and healthy holidays to you, as well
    Dec 22, 2013. 08:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's A New Day [View article]
    For my tastes CAT is at the high end of the trading range. WIth earnings season about to start I would be reluctant to buy above $85. Although I do expect an upside earnings surprise, I'm not really willing to consider that risk right now.
    Dec 22, 2013. 08:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's A New Day [View article]
    You've been paying too much attention.

    I do look at MACD, but only mentioned it this week as the Signal to line relationship was a common thread through a number of potential selections this week. That's not usually the case. What I thought most interesting is that the crossovers tended to occur prior to Wednesday's strong move higher.

    You bring up a great final point about that bubble bursting. WLT is one such stock, as I mentioned that I owned a much more expensive lot. It has been arduous making up for the paper loss through the frequent trading of much lower priced shares and sale of calls, but unless the stock becomes irreparably broken, as some of those cloud plays may, that dogged approach and commitment is what it takes to become whole, if not capitulating and taking the tax loss.
    Dec 22, 2013. 08:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's A New Day [View article]
    It was actually curious that gold didn't swoon in the hours after the FOMC meeting, as expected. It waited until the next day. I'm not certain how to explain that lack of immediate response, as had been seen on numerous previous such occasions.

    What I do know is that the more certain the relationship seems, the less likely it will bear fruit when counted upon. I expect a disconnect between precious metals and rising interest rates to mark the early post-taper announcement phase.
    Dec 22, 2013. 08:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's A New Day [View article]
    While that may be true over the longer term, retailers have not fared well of late, with the exception of Macys. The comment is specific to current market conditions and those really for most of 2013. Retail has just not been the place to be. Nordstrom, for example, has greatly under-performed the S&P 500 in 2013.
    Dec 22, 2013. 08:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's A New Day [View article]
    I haven't owned YUM in 7 months and have missed the last 10 points while waiting and waiting. In that time its beta has also fallen quite a bit, so in hindsight it was a mistake to have waited, as its risk was less than perceived.

    Once Target gets over this rough patch, Macys will finally have some company as a retailer that's worth owning, at a time when retailers aren't the best of places to park money.
    Dec 22, 2013. 07:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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