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George Acs  

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  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    It's a matter of risk and reward. I am advising that people manage the downside and prepare for the possibility of ownership and subsequent management of shares that could just as easily experience the downside as they may experience the upside.

    Ultimately,there's no reason to give up anything. Anyone can customize their own investment strategy by simply not devoting all resources toward a single vision or approach. For those also interested in the potential upside, in exchange for understanding there is concomitant risk, they can certainly pursue strategies to go after that upside while still pursuing more conservative and hedged strategies. It doesn't have to be "all or none."

    I prefer lots of "singles" as opposed to the occasional home run and strikeouts.
    Feb 24, 2014. 07:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    If there is such certainty that guidance will be increased on Thursday after your 12 years of trading you should probably then know that it would either be a "non-event" on the news or a sell-off in the making.

    As far as what direction the movement is in, if you read this article, it doesn't really matter if your objectives are aligned to those I've defined. It's the magnitude of the movement, not the direction. And you didn't have to pay for the potential insight.

    You're welcome.
    Feb 24, 2014. 07:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    I don't follow QCOR. It doesn't really have that much options activity.

    There was, however,some relatively large activity in the well out of the money 2/28 $85 call that closed with nearly a $1 spread between the bid and ask, which probably indicates a single party transaction making a large bet on at least an 11% move higher.
    Feb 23, 2014. 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    As I mentioned in the article the potential trades listed here specifically disregard any substantive consideration of technical or fundamental analyses.

    The option market reflects the split between bulls and bears on the stock going into earnings and that split is even.

    Who can tell not only what the earnings and guidance will look like but also what kind of reaction will be generated? That's why the option market is split, although the volume and distribution seems to be favoring a bullish sentiment
    Feb 23, 2014. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    Casinos are content with slim margins. While they may want to get your money they also give it back, albeit in redistributed form for most.
    Feb 23, 2014. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nothing To See Here [View article]
    While we've had an incredible expansion since 2009, I'm really hard pressed to see any 1929 parallels, nor 1987, 2002, 2008 etc..

    A correction in the 10-15% range shouldn't come as too much of a surprise, but I do agree that if it does occur it will simply be a stepping stone for renewed market appreciation.

    Since about July 2013 I've kept a "Cash-o-Meter" on my site to let subscribers know how much cash I've been keeping in reserve, as well as weekly indications of how much I'm willing to take that cash reserve down during the course of the week, hopefully replenishing it with share assignments.

    While keeping some cash on the side may temper potential participation in a rally that can easily be overcome by having it available during even modest retreats and certainly after or during a real correction.
    Feb 23, 2014. 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    Somehow, I think the house still has a decent and acceptable profit margin built into the proposition
    Feb 23, 2014. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    He won, like he usually did. I can't remember the game, although if I had the initiative I suppose I could find out what games were played in October 2004, but it was a college football game that had lots of lead changes.

    I was much more nervous that he, but I have less tolerance for a quarter in a slot machine than for 100,000 times worth the play in a stock position. The likelihood of losing it all in the stock position is pretty small as compared to the casino play.
    Feb 23, 2014. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    Not in performing the calculation itself. However, I would be curious why that was the case and would likely want to be on the other side of wherever the skew may be. Seeing a large differential in sentiment in advance of earnings should be rare.
    Feb 23, 2014. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    While your enthusiasm is commendable, when it comes to market behavior there's no such thing as a sure bet. Logic and rational thinking have nothing on the emotion that could just as easily match yours, but in expressing disappointment at the numbers or sometimes more importantly, the forward guidance.
    Feb 23, 2014. 08:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nothing To See Here [View article]
    That's very nice. The sale of options is certainly a good means of enhancing yield or providing a cushion in the event of untoward price movement.

    However, puts are actually an inefficient way of securing yield in an upward moving market, especially when dividend yielding stocks are involved, unless in the money puts are utilized. As volatility is decreasing the utility of using in the money puts as a way of enhancing the yield decreases, as well. To really get an optimum price the use of out of the money puts is more commonly used, but sacrifices premium, while decreasing risk.

    All in all, however, the sale of puts should be considered as part of an arsenal to help achieve investment objectives.
    Feb 23, 2014. 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    I have TGT, as well. It must be a Miinnesota thing, along with BBY.

    Picked up LO last week. They actually have already announced a dividend increase to $0.615, up 12% with the ex-div on 2/28. Not quite the 20% increase from 2011 to 2012, but nice enough to help support a floor on shares. With a payout ratio of about 38% they have lots of ability to sustain and grow their dividend.
    Feb 22, 2014. 08:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    Here's an article about one strategy to deal with deep out of the money positions. It's Homer Simpson inspired and works best when there's an upward move in shares, even if for just a day. (This is the DEMO version of Option to Profit )
    Feb 22, 2014. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    I went back to the last Best Buy earnings period to have a look.

    It closed on Friday Nov. 15, 2013 at $43.69 and on Monday Nov 18, 2014, the day before earnings were reported at $43.56. At the time, the implied volatility was 8.5%, which would have meant that the lower strike level implied by the option was $40.

    The 1% ROI was at a $39 strike.

    Shares closed trading that week at $39.37, so had the 1% ROI strike been used those shares would not have been assigned.

    I rarely want to pick a strike that's within the implied volatility range, such as the $40.50 strike, although it offered a much higher premium in exchange.

    Most of the time, when faced with a possible assignment on a put sale, if at all possible, I try rolling the puts over to another put, ideally at a lower put price (unless there is an upcoming dividend). It's usually possible if the prevailing price isn't too far away from the strike price.

    Since Best Buy had weekly options I would have tried rolling the put over to the next weekly put option. Best Buy was able to maintain its price above the earnings low until January 7th. That would mean numerous opportunities to get out of the position intact.

    At the higher strike it could conceivably be more difficult to rollover to a lower strike price and still generate a net credit on the transaction. In such cases I would try to make the trade at the same strike level.

    If assigned, I generally also want to get out of the position as quickly as possible and would choose weekly options at the original strike level, if possible. Again, the odds favor you when dealing with an original strike that was outside of the implied range.

    Funny that you mention TAP, because it's in this week's regular article, which if accepted for publication will appear either today or tomorrow, but I give it a very lukewarm endorsement
    Feb 22, 2014. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    No, not all. I'm a reasonably smart guy, but don't understand over and under even if life itself was at stake.

    I did once make a bet at a Las Vegas casino, but it was for a friend, on a college football game. He was a pretty inveterate sports gambler, having his own personal bookie, back home. The bookie? Nice guy, too, although I'm certain that niceness might disappear if necessary. He was also stereotypically a throwback to what you would have imagined a 1950s bookie to be like.

    My friend told me exactly what to say and how to place the bet. I don't remember the details, but the guy at the window asked me a question and I just froze. I had no idea what he was asking, took the money back and conferred with my friend, who re-directed me. I went back to a different window.

    I watched the game and had no clue as to whether what was going on was good or bad in a game that kept changing leads. I run back to my friend tell him what happened and he'd tell me if it was good or bad.

    The sad part? We were out in Las Vegas en route to Utah for our 50th birthdays. If I couldn't figure out the basics of sports betting by 50, it's not likely to ever happen
    Feb 22, 2014. 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment