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George Acs  

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  • Thanks For The Gift, I Think [View article]
    There is very wide agreement as to when earnings season begins and until very recently that agreement included which company "officially" kicked off earnings season. Since Alcoa left the DJIA there is less unanimity, but again, not that it matters.

    You are intent on making a case that standardization matters and no one can argue with that, but then again, no one contended that standardization was irrelevant.

    Comparing apples to apples is important, but you miss the point. No one particularly cares about the details of that standardized apples to apples comparison. For most people it's not very relevant whether the quarter ended on December 31 or February 15 or if a company's fiscal year runs from January to December or from October to September. It means little to most people.

    You may elect to interpret that to mean that it means little to the company itself, but that's not what was said.

    A far as Oracle's currency related issues, it should, in fact, have suffered somewhat less than those that reported based upon quarters that ended March 31st, as the USD/Euro exchange was more favorable during the latter part of the calendar quarter and beyond.

    Most had already discounted currency as the worst, in terms of the USD's strength, has presumably passed. Oracle simply opened up an old wound for many that had moved beyond currency, just as winter weather becomes an old story at some point. Reporting the effects of winter weather is likely to be more sympathetically accepted by investors when doing so in February, rather than in May.

    However, while you discount currency, the company cited it as the reason for the decreased revenues: "....(quarterly results were) significantly impacted by the strengthening of the U.S. dollar compared to foreign currencies."

    Perhaps your research should include what the company itself has to say, particularly if you profess to follow it.

    But I suppose there is some comfort in knowing that you are able to understand what was "misunderstood by many people, including some (but not all) analysts." It must be good to have a proprietary right to knowledge.
    Jun 24, 2015. 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanks For The Gift, I Think [View article]
    I suspect you may know the answer to those questions. Being rational in no one judges the actions on their merits, only on their reasons as far as they support meeting their goals.

    Murdering 10 million people during a purge may have been a rational thing to do if the goal was to consolidate power through fear and intimidation. If you didn't share that goal, then it would seem pretty irrational.

    It took 72 years for their perverted actions, which were rational insofar as they were intended to maintain power, to finally fail to achieve their goals.
    Jun 24, 2015. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanks For The Gift, I Think [View article]
    You're right. I should have said "3 months following the close of the quarter upon which most other S&P 500 companies reported."

    I still stand by the contention that had they reported earnings when the majority of the S&P 500 companies had done so, within the first 3 weeks of the earnings season, their stock would not have been punished quite as much due to currency related issues.

    Most people don't particularly care about when a company's fiscal year begins and ends. It's all lumped together.

    While you might say that Oracle is an early reporter, no one else will agree with that, as there's near universal agreement over when the earnings season begins and it's consistently reported as such. The only point of contention these days is whether Alcoa still marks that beginning.

    Not that any of that matters, though. Basically, there are only about 12 weeks in the year that mark time between one earnings report season and the next.
    Jun 23, 2015. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanks For The Gift, I Think [View article]
    I think I would question the idea that Russia hasn't been a rational player through its modern history, especially from 1945 - 1989.

    As far as keeping promises, they haven't, but what rational player would?

    Falling for their promises usually carried an incredibly heavy price and I think that some countries that are now aligning with China are discovering the same thing.
    Jun 23, 2015. 11:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanks For The Gift, I Think [View article]
    Those dice have always been loaded.

    Other than pure dumb luck, I think that the only way to be able to select a stock that is about to have a spike or plunge in price without known news, such as earnings to be announced, isn't through analysis.

    That's too even of a playing field and every possible bit of data has already been analyzed by people that are likely far smarter than me.

    The only way is to be on the loading end of the dice.
    Jun 23, 2015. 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanks For The Gift, I Think [View article]
    I have a good friend, who for nearly 40 years still starts every sentence with "There's no such thing as a free lunch."

    I think I now get it.
    Jun 23, 2015. 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanks For The Gift, I Think [View article]
    There is almost always a cross current on the horizon. It's rare to have unbridled and sustained strength or weakness, as there's always something that intervenes.

    Whether expected, unrecognized or simply the results of intended or unintended consequences, it's always a dynamic world where everyone is trying to outgame the other.

    Ultimately, I don't think the underlying reasons for economic data have significance with regard to the market's reaction. It's all about the numbers and the expectations for those numbers.
    Jun 23, 2015. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanks For The Gift, I Think [View article]
    You use way too much common sense and logic.

    History repeatedly shows that the early stages of interest rate increases heralds good things for the market, but people let their emotions run wild in the anticipation of a return of the 70s.
    Jun 23, 2015. 09:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanks For The Gift, I Think [View article]
    I was considering the title "Beware of Greeks Taking Gifts"

    That variance in opinion, among "experts" never ceases to amaze me. It's a major reason that I'm generally dismissive of fundamental and technical analyses. The experts have all and more access to data than the individual investor and they have analyzed the data in every way imaginable, yet most often come up with conflicting interpretations.

    When isn't it a crapshoot?
    Jun 23, 2015. 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanks For The Gift, I Think [View article]
    I didn't mean to imply that Oracle reported later than it was scheduled to report, or that it delayed its earnings. but rather that it typically reports relatively late in the cycle. There are a handful of systemically important companies that do so, due to their own fiscal year designations.
    Jun 23, 2015. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanks For The Gift, I Think [View article]
    Looks as if the children of that generation are now, after years of flirting with Communism, on the other end of the spectrum, while their children are clinging to the legacy of their grandparents.
    Jun 23, 2015. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanks For The Gift, I Think [View article]
    There's enough experience from the nearly 50 years after World War II for most countries to know that when the Russians leave their society gets better. The more indentured to the Russians the longer that takes. Those countries really paid a price for their gifts received.
    Jun 22, 2015. 08:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanks For The Gift, I Think [View article]
    That's what Crimea is for
    Jun 22, 2015. 05:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanks For The Gift, I Think [View article]
    I agree. I think that Russia, even if it was capable of doing something substantive in Greece, would be far better off letting the system fail first and then stepping in. What do they gain from preventing failure, other than more costs and an unreliable partner in the current government?
    Still, Edward J. Roche is probably right. The timing for Russia isn't particularly good, given the prices of oil and gold and their unexpected client state in Crimea and whatever may still be in the cards for the eastern Ukraine
    Jun 22, 2015. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanks For The Gift, I Think [View article]
    True, but that took generations to devolve, including the fall of one totalitarian government.

    The real difference is that the Russians realize that they can't count on any Greek government that may be waiting in the shadows to become subservient to it, as may have been the case in years past.

    Whatever deals this government might make, with the RUssians or with the EU, could be disavowed at the very next election. It's not like Castro was going to disappear or look elsewhere for his salvation, but Greek leadership could easily do both.
    Jun 22, 2015. 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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