Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

George Acs  

View George Acs' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    Thank you, but there is nothing funny about our failure, as a society, to be able to accurately predict the next correction.
    Apr 27, 2015. 11:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    That's bold, but then all the great ones are.
    Apr 27, 2015. 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    In my mind I can still see Cleon Jones catching that final fly out in Game 5 of 1969. The Orioles had such a great team that year, but the Mets were absolutely living a charmed existence. Some of the defensive pays in the series were nothing more than guys willing to go all out and take the risks that needed to be taken to have a fighting chance against the Orioles.
    They definitely didn't play it safe, but then again, the shoe polish thing really helped.
    Apr 27, 2015. 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    I think you're going about things really wisely.

    I also eased myself in after years with a really great broker. I always thought that doing some of my own account management was also a form of diversification, so kept another account and preferentially added funds to that, rather than to the managed account.

    When he passed away very unexpectedly I found myself unprepared to start working with someone new who didn't have as good of an understanding of my mindset had my broker.

    That led to going all in, which was shortly before the market top in 2007.

    The thing with market cycles, and you're right, people needlessly think that they are geniuses.

    It happened in 1987, again in 2007 and again in 2008.

    The financial industry gets washed out as relatively young brokers come to the realization that in a challenging market they have no skills and confused a bull market with their own skill.
    Apr 27, 2015. 06:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    That's a really great point. Holds for lots of things in life.
    Apr 27, 2015. 06:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    "....... as the old saying goes: " Every once in a while a blind hog gets an acorn, too...."

    "See, I knew it would rain."

    I keep looking for that block button, but can't find one.

    I'm not sure which line has me more confused.
    Apr 27, 2015. 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    No, you can speak for me. Most would see it as an improvement. Me too, and I'd gladly take the credit.

    When you consider how many people whose pay grades are far above my own have been wrong, wrong and wrong on trying to predict the next correction, it's hard to imagine how anyone's opinion would carry much credibility.

    My life expectancy is now measured in fewer years than I might like, but I do expect a correction to occur within that time span. The only question I have is will that correction be a memorable one, or just fade away like all of the other 10% variety?
    Apr 27, 2015. 03:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    Or, if I was asked directly, I would say "stay away from anyone who predicts anything, much less with certainty."

    Among the things I like about Seeking Alpha is that they don't like article titles that ask a question, unless the question remains unanswered.

    The best any of us can do is give a guess and the best guide to guessing is the past, unless you happen to be in the middle of an outlier kind of period. This seems to be one of those on at least some levels.
    Apr 27, 2015. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    Hey, don't blame me. blame my archaic auto-correct that was engineered before they had texts.
    Apr 27, 2015. 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    I'm not one who necessarily believes that you should trade or invest differently due to your age.

    The first question I would ask is what is your temperament? Some people are more suited to be traders and others to be investors.

    Either way, I agree with the comment about not timing.

    If you are young, you can't beat dollar cost averaging for eliminating bad timing.

    If you're older, or just came into a large sum of money, that dollar cost averaging suggestion still applies. If I came into a bolus of money at age 60, i would be certain not to put it all at risk at once. I might put 20% each month for 5 months or something like that, to get into the market.

    Then, I think that the amount you have available to invest should determine whether you should consider individual names or ETFs.

    For those who like trading, I really believe in the use of covered options. That is especially true in the scenario of anticipating downturns, corrections or even crashes.
    Where there may be an age related difference might be to focus more on stocks that have reasonably safe dividends and attempting to accumulate those, as well as option premiums, through market thick and thins.
    For the older investor, that might mean looking at the sale of LEAPS on those dividend stocks, which gives reason to try and wait out any longer term price declines.
    A final caveat is that, where possible, it's usually a good idea to not have your non-discretionary money invested. There is nothing worse than having to sell because you need the cash just when the market has plummeted.
    Been there and done that, but that's how you learn.
    Apr 27, 2015. 02:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    The information is that I had been predicting one for 3 years.

    With that kind of track record why would you be left wanting more predictions from me?
    Apr 27, 2015. 02:30 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    Hence my tip of the hat to Michael Batnick
    Apr 27, 2015. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    The Volatility Index is purely mathematical. If you look at the minute by minute chart of today's S&P 500 you see a fair amount of movement in the first 2 hours. Even though it's in a tight range, it's the actual sum of the movements up and down, that constitutes the volatility.

    For a day where the net move, so far, has been higher, the amount of movement to the downside has been greater than it normally might be and that makes the volatility higher, even though you would expect it to be lower, based only on the current higher position of the S&P
    Apr 27, 2015. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    That protection is pretty inexpensive right now and is tempting
    Apr 27, 2015. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    You got it right.

    When things work, it's always easy.

    Microsoft is one that the options market got wrong, at least in the size of the move, but as long as it works.

    The ones that gnaw at me are the ones that have a solid premise, except in the minds of those who really determine direction and magnitude of price moves.
    Apr 27, 2015. 11:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
5,416 Comments
3,467 Likes