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George Acs

 
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  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    "Let me tell you something"? You do know how to convince someone to ignore what you've written, although the content alone does that sufficiently well.
    Again. Trading not investing.

    What part of the quote you cited turns your stomach? While I don't know if that is part of eBay's mission statement, it is what users expect of it. You simply don't believe that they are being true or fair to one side of the equation.

    But I will take your advice and continue to write about eBay if I believe that there is a trading opportunity at a particular moment in time.

    But as far as the bigger picture goes, you are being extremely naive or simply blinded by your prejudice. The reality is that investors in a company are often at odds with those that use the services of that company. They can have very different expectations and goals and the one class can stand in the way of the other class reaching those goals.

    Do you believe that investors in utility companies care about increased fees incurred by end users? Do you think end users care about cutting the dividend of that utility company?

    Of course they don't. Both sides see a single side of the argument. They see the side that accrues benefit to their cause.

    As someone who seeks to make money by trading in eBay, I don't particularly have a vested interest in how they get transactions to occur. I don't particularly care whether the sellers are corporate giants or budding 15 year old entrepreneurs. What I care about is that its share price does what I expect it to do during a very short time frame. Usually, all I ask of it is that it stay at the same price that I purchased the shares, so status quo works for me and I can remain agnostic with regard to any issues that may be perceived as important by others who feel aggrieved.
    Nov 17, 2014. 05:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    What is your point about eBay being at $13 in 2008 and now at $55? There are countless stocks have had the same experience coming from the depths of the market's tumble between 2007 - 2009. eBay is certainly not unique in that regard and that kind of appreciation doesn't mark it any differently than so many other companies.

    For example, Halliburton, even with a 10% drop today, has out-performed eBay since the market peak in October 2007 through today. Is that a garbage company, too? Today, perhaps, but it doesn't stand alone for having had a tremendous share price climb after having sustained tremendous share price declines during a previous indiscriminate period of time.

    A market decline will be relatively indiscriminate, but will likely be more harsh on high beta and high multiple stocks. eBay has neither of those characteristics.

    Whether eBay will hit $35 before it hits $75 is really immaterial to me. I trade covered options and do so with the intent of a very short term time horizon.

    You may also want to re-consider your opposition to shorting stocks. Without shorts there would not be any where near the kind of liquidity that exists in markets. They play a very valuable role in market integrity.

    What doesn't play a valuable role is emotion when considering making trades. It tends to obscure an objective approach to risk and reward. Baggage weighs you down., so it's often best to travel lightly when making your trades
    Nov 17, 2014. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A JOLT To The System, But The Good Kind [View article]
    Consumerism may bring that to mind for you, but not necessarily for others.

    I looked at it strictly through an economic lens, that is neither liberal, nor conservative. Calling it a virtuous cycle is not a statement of its virtue, but rather the beneficial effect that one event has on the other.
    Jobs, particularly better paying jobs, lead to a number of things. Among those is increased discretionary spending, which can then lead to inflation, which to a point, may be another virtuous cycle, but like so many things, real virtue is usually only possible when moderation comes into play.
    Be neither liberal, nor conservative, just be thoughtful by looking for moderation.
    Nov 16, 2014. 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A JOLT To The System, But The Good Kind [View article]
    I've been waiting for FL for such a long time to come down in price, that I've stopped looking at it. As it turns out, the last time I owned shares was October 2013, which was about $20 ago.

    It's not too far from its high and reports earnings on Friday. If it was a stock that I wouldn't mind owning, but maybe at a lower price, I might consider selling some out of the money Nov 22, 2014 puts, being prepared to either take assignment or rollover the puts to December 20, 2014.

    If particularly bullish on shares, you can also look at possibility of buying shares and selling January 17, 2015 calls, although they haven't yet announced an ex-div date and it may be right about the time of that contract's expiration
    Nov 16, 2014. 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A JOLT To The System, But The Good Kind [View article]
    Being able to predict interest rates even a day in advance would be enough for me. Not too long ago everyone was predicting a 3% rate. WHen that didn't materialize the same voices said a 2.5% rate would cause a halt to the market's expansion. 1.9% about a month ago didn't seem to cause that halt and a nearly 20% higher on the bounce didn't do anything either.
    Not only do you have to predict where rates are heading, but if interested in equities, what the impact will be. Two very difficult things to predict in tandem.

    As far as the leanings of the incoming voting members of the Fed, while they are perceived to be more dovish, certainly than Richard Fisher, I don't think that there will be any doubt that Janet Yellen will be the lead voice. While she is perceived as dovish and with an emphasis on employment might welcome wage inflation, I think she is more pragmatist that she is dovish.
    For me, that means expect the unexpected and throw out any preconceived notions on where she will take things. I wouldn't be terribly shocked if the dovish Yellen knows how to handle a hammer and clamp down, as warranted and before any runaway movement puts her into reactive mode.
    Nov 16, 2014. 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A JOLT To The System, But The Good Kind [View article]
    Thanks.

    There really are some interesting ones.

    From a lot of perspectives the Green Mountain story in and of itself is such an interesting one. I think my first Seeking Alpha article was about Green Mountain, but has evolved so strategically since then and just keeps outsmarting people who thought it was a one trick pony.

    Amazing what a real CEO can do for a company.

    Still, it can really surprise to the downside, but it;s so resilient, even then.
    Nov 15, 2014. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A JOLT To The System, But The Good Kind [View article]
    Sometimes you do come to the realization that a higher price may be the new norm. You can only wait for so long for a stock to return to the price that you thought was fair. I think DOW has created its new norm in the $50 range and anything in that neighborhood may be fair game for entry.
    Nov 15, 2014. 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A JOLT To The System, But The Good Kind [View article]
    That's funny, true and sad all at the same time.
    Nov 15, 2014. 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A JOLT To The System, But The Good Kind [View article]
    You remember well.

    I recently found an old VHS tape of Paul Kangas on The Nightly Business Report. I couldn't believe the headlines from 30 years ago and the big movers and shakers. Was really interesting to see and listen to the words of a long ago era.
    Nov 15, 2014. 11:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A JOLT To The System, But The Good Kind [View article]
    Thank you. It is what keeps me off the streets.
    Nov 15, 2014. 11:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    Those oils will turn and maybe today's rumored purchase of Baker Hughes by Halliburton is a sign of the industry seeing value at these levels.

    Halliburton's behavior was amazing. It did about a 15% turnaround in just a few minutes before giving back some of the gains. It's a good sign if the market perceives the buyer in a $20+ B deal as benefiting from the deal
    Nov 13, 2014. 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    Right and now here we are a day later.

    Are you talking about the puts? I did roll that later in the afternoon, but should have waited even longer as if really fell more on the debt rating. Still, 3 weeks running with the weekly puts could become a habit that worked out well earlier in the year. High maintenance at times, but worthwhile.
    Nov 13, 2014. 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    The breach wasn't so bad, just ask Home Depot. It was the way management dealt with it, which will very likely be a Harvard Business School type case study. It was just awful from beginning to end and their leadership was so consumed by it that they also lost sight of their businesses, especially in Canada.

    Although the CFO who became the interim CEO was competent, it really took the naming of a real CEO to get footing back. Hopefully it continues.
    Nov 13, 2014. 07:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    I thought about that, too, but if it stays at this level for a while, it can become a recurrent play. It just wasn't worth putting the dividend at risk, but now that it's gone ex-dividend and had another strong morning, it finally felt like time.
    Nov 13, 2014. 07:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    We actually sold some 12/20 $70 calls this morning (Nov. 13).

    I still don't know what took so long for this one to finally get above $62, but something has lit a fire under it heading into earnings. Given the mixed retail news and the run up, I expect it to close below $70 on earnings, but am glad to finally have it back as a productive member of the portfolio and a long term holding, at that.
    Nov 13, 2014. 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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