Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

George Acs  

View George Acs' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • It's As Clear As Mud [View article]
    The funny thing is that if the initial increase is just 0.25% there are probably going o be those who press the sell button because they'll believe that such a small increase means that the economy isn't growing fast enough.

    Of course there will be others that press the sell button simply because it's an increase and then there will be those, like yourself, who wonder what the fuss is all about and may just see it as a green light to add new positions.

    I think you're right. Banks, maybe because of more stringent capital requirements, are still wary about lending and are keeping the economic expansion below most everyone's ability to notice.
    Mar 23, 2015. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud [View article]
    Holy shades of Prechter.

    DJIA 100000 in 5-6 years? That would take 29% compounded annually for 6 years.

    Let's do it.

    With that kind of stock market appreciation we might actually be able to finally see some trickle down that would help an economy recover before that 10 year period that you think is impossible.
    Mar 22, 2015. 05:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud [View article]
    I think you may be giving well too much power to the Federal Reserve. I'm certain that an esteemed ancestor, John D., would sooner roll over in his grave than to take orders from the Federal Reserve as to when to drill and when to pump. It's more likely that he would decide when and where to get on or off of the supply-demand curve on his own.
    Mar 22, 2015. 04:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud [View article]
    I believe that DOW announced plans to shed its Kuwaiti interests back in November 2014, but as far as I know, they still hold the interest. Liveris' comments regarding the role of Dow's energy interests in Kuwait came recently at the annual Davos meeting.
    Mar 22, 2015. 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud [View article]
    Human behavior has little role in a game of red and black other than to mis-interpret statistical probabilities and to take actions that may not be in their best interests.

    Because of that, I think it's much more likely to be able to see 7 consecutive spins of the wheel result in alternating outcomes, than it is to see those alternating outcomes in the stock market.
    Mar 22, 2015. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud [View article]
    A fact or two? Think 20 or 30.

    But you are quite right. 8 meetings this year. May 2015 has a release of previous meeting minutes.

    The actual statement last week, however, was "Consistent with its previous statement, the Committee judges that an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate remains unlikely at the April FOMC meeting..." still leaving the door open for an increase before June.
    Mar 22, 2015. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud [View article]
    Unfortunately, getting the interest rate to match the needs of the economy is really a hit or miss kind of thing, as it's usually only in hindsight, sometimes a year or more, when you actually know where the economy really stood at a point in time.

    Accurately assessing the momentum of the economy as data comes in real time is mostly impossible, yet decisions have to be made with regard to policies, such as interest rates, both in terms of the size and steepness of change.

    All in all, I think that the Federal Reserve has done well since Bernanke took the reigns, but that's all ancient history. All that matters is what we will see in hindsight years from now.
    Mar 22, 2015. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud [View article]
    The qualitative aspect has gotten everyone into a tizzy, while the quantitative aspect, as you've pointed out hasn't really be looked at in a logical fashion.

    When that first rate increase comes, we will likely do what we've done in the past and celebrate after letting out a deep breath, as we realize that the economy is finally moving forward in a concrete manner, such that you can actually see the improvement in the everyday lives of people.
    Mar 22, 2015. 10:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud [View article]
    Your assessment is reasonable, but I don't know whether a data driven Fed can make those kind of implicit assurances. It can certainly be their intention to increase rates in a very systematic and methodical fashion, but then reality takes over.

    What is known is that usually the initial appearances, that is the recognition of the data supporting either a heating up or cooling down of the economy, lags the actual event. The actions taken upon recognition of a change in the economy tend to be too little and too late and often require the kind of unwanted catch-up kind of measures, such as you described in the past decade.
    Mar 22, 2015. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud [View article]
    Thank you.

    The one thing that I can be almost certain about, after looking through some actuarial tables, is that it's unlikely that there will be a sudden wave of logic during the course of my remaining lifespan.

    That makes things easier.
    Mar 22, 2015. 10:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud [View article]
    You are correct. Thank you.
    Mar 22, 2015. 10:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud [View article]
    Thanks.

    Waiting for that downdraft, like you've done, can be a nice way to capitalize on momentum and fear for that moment or two that it may still exist.

    You tend to go longer term that I generally set out to do, but there can be a very definite advantage to doing that if you want to have a life outside of watching prices going up and down and fretting about it with every bounce.
    Mar 22, 2015. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud [View article]
    Hope to hear from you when the dust settles.
    Mar 21, 2015. 04:56 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud [View article]
    I've re-read what I wrote and don't see that interpretation at all, so it may be time to turn the nitrous a bit lower (or higher).
    Mar 21, 2015. 03:14 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's As Clear As Mud [View article]
    I don't know. It seems to me that Janet Yellen has been very clear about her intentions and thoughts. It seems that we may not be capable of accepting, understanding or believing plain, forthright and transparent communication.
    Mar 21, 2015. 02:06 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
5,288 Comments
3,325 Likes