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George Acs

 
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  • Almost Nothing Can Stop A Runaway Train [View article]
    That may be the best advice ever given. I may use it next month when toasting to my son and new wife, in offering them lifelong advice.
    Sep 9 08:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Almost Nothing Can Stop A Runaway Train [View article]
    Provide something from equivalent sources that suggests that QE1 was a "one off," or that the "Twist" was promoted as being the end solution to deliver us to monetary objectives. I'm not certain that there was anyone who believed that a single policy decision would have been a magic bullet and it seems highly unlikely that anyone with a reputation would suggest that there was any kind of magic bullet being delivered.

    Those are your projections.

    I continue to believe that QE will end, as planned, in October, unless something drastic occurs in the economy, as I had clearly stated earlier. I don't anticipate anything drastic, but neither do I expect the Federal reserve to sit and watch passively in the event that something unforeseen does occur.

    So, I guess my scenarios sound less "far out," and the hand holding stops as envisioned and telegraphed, but thanks for asking
    Sep 8 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Almost Nothing Can Stop A Runaway Train [View article]
    I do understand the concern regarding ethical issues. However, what I'm not certain of is the rationale for not engaging in trading shares.

    There is really no direct benefit that accrues to BP for your buying or selling shares, unless it is in a secondary offering where proceeds may go directly to the company. Otherwise these are private transactions between individuals or institutions.

    Boycotting trades in shares of BP or MO, or others that have ties to destructive behaviors or products isn't similar to the campaign to disengage from Krugerrand purchases, for example, where the proceeds went to and directly benefited the South African government.

    The benefit or detriment to BP, if any, is indirect, at best, from daily trading. The harm, however, if a boycott is widespread is much more likely to be borne by individual shareholders who are less resistant to large downside moves than corporations or institutions, making it quite regressive.

    BP could much better withstand any downward price pressure on shares than could individual investors and may in fact benefit from such a decline, as it could pursue its share buyback at even lower prices, thereby reducing its dividend liability and allowing it to retain even more cash from operations.

    While a similar argument was made in the case of the boycott against South African coins, that argument was specious, as there was never any evidence indicating that its citizens otherwise limited by apartheid received any benefit at all from gold coin sales.
    Sep 8 12:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Almost Nothing Can Stop A Runaway Train [View article]
    Re-read your allegations regarding past events and the actions of the Federal Reserve. Your suggestion is that the Federal Reserve, which is made up of individual members has acted to fool those into believing that which isn't truthful, for purposes of perpetuating a "game."

    That is a conspiracy. And as you must know, a conspiracy is "an evil, unlawful, treacherous, or surreptitious plan formulated in secret by two or more persons."

    I hope the crowd is pleased.
    Sep 8 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Almost Nothing Can Stop A Runaway Train [View article]
    I guess it helps to not believe in the ubiquity of conspiracies and to not believe that we are somehow pawns in a "game."

    At least we're fortunate to have you around to be able to see through all of the obfuscation that has the rest of us completely fooled and held hostage by these evil schemes.
    I do understand that much
    Sep 7 04:11 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Almost Nothing Can Stop A Runaway Train [View article]
    I agree that we can't possibly know the eventual path taken to close this sad series of events, but there isn't necessarily reason to fret that this week's announcement will be any kind of a death knell or shackle on BP's continued ability to be a fruitful investment
    Sep 7 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Almost Nothing Can Stop A Runaway Train [View article]
    We all are prepared for some rise in rates and the expectation has now been for sometime in early to mid 2015. Of course once it is finally reality there will be some reaction, but who knows what that reaction might be. The next part of the shoe to drop will be the size of any increase and the rapidity at which subsequent increases arrive.

    Ultimately, it won't be good as bonds start to look more attractive booth on the basis of yield and risk.
    Sep 7 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Almost Nothing Can Stop A Runaway Train [View article]
    When opening a position I want to get a premium for a near the money or in the money option that will be about 1.0-1.3% for TMUS specifically.

    For the rollovers I've been shooting for a net credit of 1.0-1.1%.
    Sep 7 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Almost Nothing Can Stop A Runaway Train [View article]
    It's always refreshing to read a frank assessment of a strategy or of the theses that defined an approach to reading the market.

    The past year, despite record after record has been very challenging for many people actively trading the market and those professional managers are having another difficult year.

    The difference is that they're not likely to be candid about it and would be more inclined to close the doors and run away from their shortcomings while opening some new funds.
    Sep 7 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Almost Nothing Can Stop A Runaway Train [View article]
    Ideally, I'd like to see MET get back to about $52.50, which it may do if interest rates have a downside bias, which may take another month to confirm.

    I don't know what to make of the call to make MET a "SIFI" and hope that might impact its pricing. At the moment I'm having a hard time seeing much upside to that designation, particularly as it may limit how much and the manner in which MET invests its huge cash stores.
    Sep 7 03:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Almost Nothing Can Stop A Runaway Train [View article]
    The blueberry scones and coffee reminds me that it may be soon time for Starbucks again. Was considering at $77.50, but waiting for a little bit lower.
    Sep 7 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Almost Nothing Can Stop A Runaway Train [View article]
    You're more generous on the BP position than I am. I counted it as a 2 day position, but now looking back it was more like a 1 1/2 day holding.

    Yes, I'd love to add BBY to list, but only if it goes down fairly sharply on Monday. It has just gone up too much since the rebound from the earnings report when we sold puts in that aftermath.
    Sep 7 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Almost Nothing Can Stop A Runaway Train [View article]
    It was a week of balancing.

    I don't think you can readily characterize all three events that you cite as "giant pieces of GOOD news."

    I gave some reasons why QE Lite may not be good at all for US equity markets, but in any event the announcement was already widely expected to have been made at the Jackson Hole meeting, so was already likely discounted at least for its short term news impact.

    The Employment Situation Report was widely questioned regarding its accuracy from the minute the numbers were released and so it wasn't surprising to see a muted reaction. However, what consequence would anyone expect from a single month's statistic when the path is already fairly clear with regard to the end of QE and the initiation of interest rate hikes? Certainly QE wouldn't change unless something terribly drastic occurred. Interest rates? Maybe their rise would be delayed by a month until more data arrived might be the most to result from a disappointing employment number, but does that really matter?

    The Ukraine-Russia truce was also widely expected from the week's onset. The muted response to it suggests that it was either discounted or investors are cautious. The good news is that if it falls apart, you wouldn't expect a plunge.

    As far as short term weakness goes, I've been expecting that to be the case for nearly 2 years, what's another week?
    Sep 7 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Almost Nothing Can Stop A Runaway Train [View article]
    I still refer to IBM as International Business Machines, so you may have to excuse me for still calling BP British Petroleum, although I still sometimes refer to it as British Petroleum Amoco.

    Most people understand.

    My memory is very long term oriented, but my investment strategies are very short term.

    Your contention is that the ultimate fine could be more and mine is that the ultimate fine could be less.

    However, we're both agreed that it could take years, which is likely far longer than the 1 week time frame or 1 week at a time frame, that I have when I enter into most positions.

    Ultimately, the fine is fairly inconsequential. AT its $18 billion mark that represents less than 2 quarters of dividends. Stopping or reducing the dividend for a short time could easily pay the fine and if telegraphed to investors as being of a finite length of time would minimize the impact on share price. Still, any action or need to generate funds for payment is likely not to occur by September 12, 2014, the date by which I would hope to be out of shares, if purchased this week.
    Sep 7 07:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Almost Nothing Can Stop A Runaway Train [View article]
    The likelihood is that $18 billion is going to be a maximum when all is said and done, but since my approach is generally a week at a time I'm not too concerned about what further liability surprises may come sometime in the future, because that surprise is not likely to come in the immediate future.

    The idea is that the opportunity in BP is related to a short term response to the news of the fine and the ability to potentially profit from the market's response through the sale of option contracts.

    One additional factor to consider in the final amount of the fine is the political consequence. There is very little likelihood that the ultimate fine would be so onerous as to cause substantive harm to the company due to our mutual relationship with Great Britain. Such issues have come up in the past with regard to BP and also serve as a cap to future punitive damages.
    Sep 7 07:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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