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George Acs  

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  • We Need A Bull In China [View article]
    Hard to dispute that, but as long as the news was good, very few were questioning the validity of the data coming from China and were happy to go along for the ride.

    What may be the real problem is that the government's 20 years of expansion may have achieved too little and spread to too few, to create an economy that could sustain growth, even at much lower levels.
    Aug 18, 2015. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need A Bull In China [View article]
    The bad thing about the world being so interconnected is that the world is so interconnected.

    Whatever happens in China is going to have some impact here, even if only to dampen any new move our markets may make toward new highs.

    Even as a competitor, it's in our best interests to not see things devolve so much as to lead to any irrational behavior in order to shore up their economy or stock markets. Those kind of behaviors would only be detrimental for us and for US companies doing significant business in China.
    Aug 18, 2015. 01:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need A Bull In China [View article]
    There still remains the question as to how much of China's growth was illusory or simply an effort to generate growth for growth's sake, alone and without regard to the ability of projects to sustain themselves.

    While they may have some solid ideas on business efficiency and whether good money should be thrown after bad, the problem may be very deep if they have degraded their cash position without creating the ability to generate new revenues.
    Aug 18, 2015. 01:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need A Bull In China [View article]
    Thank you.

    I tend to let stocks over stay their welcomes and like you, try whittling away at the paper loss, sometimes pennies at a time, with call sales.

    For stocks in a taxable account I consider taking strategic tax losses. In those events it becomes simply a question of how much higher would the stock have to go in that 30 day period after the proposed sale to give me more benefit than taking a short term tax loss.

    I try not to have many "Momentum" stocks in my tax deferred accounts, but still try and collect those premiums, where possible, but don't think about the 30 day wash sales rule.
    Aug 18, 2015. 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need A Bull In China [View article]
    And China is seeking to maintain their position by devaluation, lest Viet Nam and other nations become less expensive providers of goods to US retailers.
    Aug 18, 2015. 07:12 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Predicting Is Hard Business [View article]
    I always like CY, although now have a lot with a $12 Sept expiration.

    I think, though, that you may have been looking at the $11 Sept puts. This stock usually has about a 4% monthly ROI for an at the money strike. It is now quite a bit higher, so there must be some expectation of continued volatility, maybe fallout from the failed takeover attempt a couple of months ago.

    The last 11 lots I've owned, including the current one, have an average of 41 days of holding and an average 5.2% ROI. The problem is just the ups and downs that can get some people a little nervous.

    I was thinking about it for this week's article (which is still with the editors) and looking at trying it as a weekly play with the August 21 expiration.
    Aug 17, 2015. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Predicting Is Hard Business [View article]
    Good point, but even you may be understating its difficulty.
    Aug 14, 2015. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Predicting Is Hard Business [View article]
    While you're probably right, there are those days, like yesterday for example, when it's finally all over, you still sit in disbelief.
    Aug 13, 2015. 07:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Predicting Is Hard Business [View article]
    Would be interesting to see what companies have the greatest costs related to China, specifically importing from there. They may see their expenses drop in the coming quarter

    Macys reported today and has no Chinese exposure, although they're talking about setting up a Chinese internet presence. They may be real beneficiaries of limited downside currency exposure as USD strengthens and then upside to a weaker Yuan
    Aug 12, 2015. 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Predicting Is Hard Business [View article]
    This definitely has been an interesting week, but again approaching the 2046 level of support the S&P bounced back early this afternoon. That level seems to be holding after the past 3 attempts. That may be a good sign, at least for short term traders.
    Aug 12, 2015. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Predicting Is Hard Business [View article]
    If it can withstand this morning's China induced market drop you may be right. They actually even beat on revenue. That has to be a surprise given how most everyone else had been faring
    Aug 12, 2015. 07:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Predicting Is Hard Business [View article]
    This is reminding me a little bit of the second half of 2011 when there were lots and lots of alternating big move days. That year ended perfectly unchanged on the S&P 500. The difference, and the part that I really don't understand, is that those fluctuations in 2011 caused the VIX to increase significantly, as volatility doesn't really care about direction.

    This time around that doesn't seem to be the case. Short of trying to dissect the mathematical definition of volatility, I'll just remain befuddled.

    IP is ex-dividend tomorrow, so the time has now past for that (at least with covered calls), but you can still get shares in the after market tonight and be entitled to the dividend.

    I picked up some shares today and wrote the weekly $47.50. FOr a while, up until about 1 PM, I thought there might be reason to consider rolling it over as it started climbing even as the market continued to stay at its lows, but then it gave up the fight and dropped below the strike.
    Must admit, I like the Apple idea, but I can count on the fingers of 2 hands how many times I've bought calls other than in closing a position.
    Aug 11, 2015. 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Predicting Is Hard Business [View article]
    But you also have always had the same option to buy, sell, hold, wait or do nothing with stock options. You simply selected to dodge that all of those options other than the "do nothing."

    But you're missing something pretty big here. That is, no one is really talking about buying options. The talk and the over-riding emphasis is on selling them. There may be an occasional comment from a reader about having bought an option, but that's not what I ever find myself doing, other than to close out a short option position.

    So while I thank you for wishing me well in those endeavors, you clearly have the wrong guy in mind. I'm not interested in leverage. I'm interested in enhancing return through the use of an income producing vehicle.

    I sell options to those who may be greedy and want to use leverage in the hopes of a quick return without regard to the quality of the company or management.

    Thanks for your advice, but I might also offer some - and that is to actually read the article(s).
    Aug 11, 2015. 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FTC's Open And Shut Case Vs. Herbalife Should Be Winding Down [View article]
    The disclosure from his earliest articles states that he is short HLF. Buying puts may express the same sentiment as being short the shares, but is very different.

    If that's the case his disclosure, which must be provided with each article in which there is a financial stake, and is distinct from the body of the article, should simply have stated that he was long puts. I think that buying puts and then saying that you are short shares is a mis-representation, if that indeed has been the case.

    There is no "problem" with letting those puts expire and if you are still maintaining your thesis you simply go long a new position, but as with shorting the stock, time can be an expensive enemy and the author is approaching a 3 year anniversary of that first HLF article.

    Still, the drama isn't over and the current price level could collapse in an instant, although I don't think that August will be the timing for a high profile decision to be released.
    Aug 10, 2015. 09:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FTC's Open And Shut Case Vs. Herbalife Should Be Winding Down [View article]
    Yes. But they did pay a dividend through 2013 and early 2014, totaling $1.50, a period of time during which the author reported to be short HLF.

    With regard to the debt covenant, you are correct. I just read the restrictions in their February 10-K. So much for that strategy. I believe, however, that they are still permitted to repurchase shares as long as they continue to make their debt payments
    Aug 10, 2015. 08:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment