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George Acs  

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  • 3 Days To Think About Bad News [View article]
    Just as the wildly inflated Employment number last month should have been taken with a grain of salt, so too should this one, but that's just not the way the market looks at things when the information is still fresh.

    I think it was a good thing that we were closed for the day and had an extra couple of days to realize those numbers may not be sacrosanct.
    Apr 4, 2015. 09:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Days To Think About Bad News [View article]
    I don't think that there's much of a conspiracy involved to bury the data. It's happened before, I think 18 years earlier on another Good Friday and will happen again by virtue of calendars coinciding.

    As far as the futures turning positive on Monday, I won't disagree. That may be the benefit of having 3 days to think things over and realizing that these numbers by then will be ancient history and just as likely to be adjusted in the future as any other piece of economic data.
    Apr 4, 2015. 09:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Days To Think About Bad News [View article]
    The financial gap resulting from society providing some assurances for its citizens is just heightened by absurdly low tax rates. It's just not possible to have both.

    There's nothing inherently wrong about creating a society that rewards people for having been contributing members, but it has to be paid for. It's only a Ponzi scheme if the money stops coming in,
    Apr 4, 2015. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Days To Think About Bad News [View article]
    I used to go to the harness track when younger and was amazed at the things that people bet on while waiting to lose their money.

    Since you're up in New England, I used to make the rounds of Scarborough Downs, Rockingham and Foxboro - a long time ago.
    Apr 4, 2015. 09:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Days To Think About Bad News [View article]
    It ends up leading to the same game of trying to guess whether good news is treated as being bad or bad news is treated as good.

    I think in this case the only news that could have had a net positive impact would have been news as expected, that is net jobs gains of about 259,000.

    Getting a low number, as we did, at one time would have been lauded as meaning a continuation of QE, but now it may open up worries that we're decelerating or moving backward on the progress made.

    It's like going back to your parent's house after college. SUre it may be comforting, but if you can't break loose that should give you reason for concern.
    Apr 4, 2015. 09:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]
    The way it has been bouncing around, anything is possible. But as long as it stays near that $64.50 price heading into expiration, rollover should be pretty easy and you could probably roll it down to a $64 and still get a good ROI if shares trading above $64.25
    Apr 2, 2015. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]
    Not so fast on that MU. Two weeks is a long time, especially since it then sunk lower during the conference call on lower guidance. Everything is more and more of a moving target these days.
    Apr 1, 2015. 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]
    I had one drafted a while ago about 3D Systems but decided that it just wasn't worth it. I think Tesla falls into the same category.

    You should have seen some of the comments when I wrote about Facebook just before or shortly after its initial expiration lock up. In that case I actually wrote a follow up trying to politely taunt some of the commenters.
    Yeah, really mature.
    Mar 30, 2015. 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]
    I stopped writing about Apple because there were too many comments. Too many can be a mixed blessing sort of thing, although I generally enjoy seeing them & replying to them.

    These days the comments are as likely to be between readers directed to one another, and constructive ones at that, which is pretty nice to see.
    Mar 29, 2015. 08:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]
    No.

    Not as long as volatility is low.
    Mar 29, 2015. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]
    I love the word "minion."

    I used to have an employee that always referred to himself as "your trusty minion."

    2008 and 2009 were great years for ROI. I think, though that you out-traded and out-performed me. I had somewhere north of 2000 trades in 2009, but definitely not as high as 3000. My ROI, purely as cash flow, as discussed earlier was about 50% back then, but I didn't include dividends back in those days, as I didn't seek them out as much. I also sold very few puts back then.

    You may remember that the volatility back then made it often a good idea to rollover positions even if they would otherwise be assigned, as the forward premiums just kept outstripping the current premiums. Back then, though, there weren't very many weekly options, most were still monthly.

    But the premiums were so good it also often made sense to close out an option position if shares fell sharply and then sell them back a couple of days later at an even higher premium.
    Mar 29, 2015. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]
    The challenge is much greater during low volatility periods that rely on weekly contracts in cases where a weekly contracts expires and can't be immediately rolled over to generate additional income due to a price drop in shares.

    During higher volatility periods, even as the market may be trending lower, the expectation for more predictable income streams actually increases, as you find yourself more apt to use monthly or expanded weekly contracts and not as much at risk for expiration due to a momentary price drop, as we've seen over the past month on a number of Thursdays and Fridays.

    In such cases you may also find greater protection from short term spikes or plunges by diversifying expiration dates, for example having some expire April 17, 2015, others in May and maybe some others in June. During low volatility periods, though, it's much harder to justify writing a 2 or 3 month option contract, as the premium tends to be very low.
    Mar 29, 2015. 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]
    To clarify, that annual 30% that you are referring to is not a suggestion that such a level of profit or asset appreciation is likely or even possible.

    Instead that is the target for income generation from your assets and has nothing to do with portfolio value going up nor down. The article that fcfrag is referring to and his own comments are consistent with the former, rather than latter notion.

    You've simply mis-interpreted in either reflex disbelief or misplaced cynicism

    You can still create positive income flow from a combination of option premiums and dividends even when your asset value is falling. That 2.5%/month level for income generation is achievable, especially if placing some emphasis on dividend capture and using shorter term option contracts. In times of higher volatility less emphasis needs to be placed on dividends and contract terms may be longer.

    The ultimate objective is that the enhanced flow of income from your holdings improves your overall return. That's almost always going to be true in down, flat and mildly higher markets. It's less likely to be true in markets that move higher and higher, particularly if doing so in leaps and bounds.
    Mar 29, 2015. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]
    I didn't take it on a personal level. My comment was that it's always easy to make a similar accusation, but there is still some burden of proof, which includes the likelihood that the accused is familiar with the works of the originator of the piece of intellectual property that is being questioned.
    Mar 29, 2015. 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On? [View article]
    I had to do an upgrade going from London back home following a heart attack there and being advised that I should make certain I had lots of room to roam around and stretch during the flight.

    I didn't recall being warned against alcohol consumption, so my wife and I definitely tried to whittle down the extra costs of the seats with in kind items. It's amazing how you can get someone who doesn't generally drink to do so when they feel a need to get their money's worth.
    Mar 29, 2015. 01:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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