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George Acs

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  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    You really do have to believe in that logic. It's one thing to see large precipitous drops in stocks that had large precipitous rises, but in the absence of company or sector specific news, there's not much reason to see those drops in stocks that had gradual price climbs.

    The sheer number of S&P stocks that are in correction territory is really unusually high and not very warranted. It's actually keeping me from making some DOH trades right now because I can't really see the reasoning for some of them to not be able to have a reflexive bounce much higher.
    Oct 14 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    Getting any two sides to agree on anything, especially when it has to do with money, isn't the easiest thing in the world to accomplish. I'm not a big believer in any orchestrated action to drive prices lower, although it is intriguing that there's no real talk of OPEC production reductions. Maybe they just really need the money and don't have the patience to wait for decreased supply to kick back into the equation.
    Oct 14 07:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    Depending on your investing time horizons you can certainly have different guidelines for when to enter a position.

    For the longer term horizon that you are presenting there is certainly much less reason to be price sensitive.

    However, when considering the use of a shorter term covered option strategy, price can be critical, particularly as it can impact upon the ability to create subsequent income streams following an unexpected price decline.
    Oct 13 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    Opportunity? Yes, but when?

    Even "the wise" can't know when price represents value versus value trap or where on the continuum a falling price resides.

    Even "the wise" can't avoid looking foolish when buying at what looked like a better price turned out to be an even better price the following day.

    I'm not quite clear as to what your final comment means. The sell side exists because it makes money and it also makes the buy side possible. If the markets fall and fall hard, it seems as if the sell side will do better than the buy side unless the buy side somehow can have perfect timing. I certainly don't mind selling at the beginning of a large decline and letting someone else take the losses to come.

    But also, "the wise" that find themselves in a position to buy mightily during a market decline must fall into one of two categories. In the most idealized scenario they also exhibited perfect timing by selling their positions at their peaks and have held onto cash awaiting the bottom, or they simply had cash that wasn't participating in the previous rally. In the former case, they would truly have been wise, but in the latter case? Not so much
    Oct 12 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    You should have let me know. My kids were on WH South Lawn last week there for the President's lift off aboard Marine One, en route ultimately to California. Maybe they could have breached the security perimeter to have delivered your message.

    That would have given us something to talk about.

    We really need something to restore confidence. The concern is that a capitulation may not really be one, but rather a step toward even lower levels.

    If Europe can hold steady tomorrow that would really help markets here, especially with a banking holiday to contend with.
    What I would like to see is 2 steps back and 2.2 steps forward. That would ratchet up volatility without asset erosion. Could it happen that way? Maybe, but as we approach the end of the year people may want to start securing profits and may be more willing to sell now, than risk losing the gains by waiting until after the New Year.
    With potential panic at hand from Ebola now part of the equation, it may not take much to get markets to move decidedly lower. Let's watch that 200 dma tomorrow morning, too.
    Oct 12 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    I hope that's the case, although it's always a good buying opportunity. The trick is to convert it into a good profit opportunity.

    Where there is some concern is that the three previous times that HAL sank below its 200dma, it stayed there for a while before starting its return higher.
    Oct 11 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    I generally think of positions in terms of a week at a time. Since the coming week is also the last week of an option cycle that kind of thinking may even apply to stocks such as Fastenal, that only offer monthly options.

    You offer two different "ifs" in your warnings regarding the downside to waiting for the ex-dividend date. One is that shares will move higher upon earnings and then that by the time the ex-dividend date rolls around, the presumably substantial gains will be lost.


    I, on the other hand, would likely consider the sale of puts and if likely to be assigned, usually consider rolling over the contracts in an attempt to avoid assignment. However, in the case of an imminent ex-dividend date I take that into consideration and would be more likely to accept assignment and then sell calls on the position.

    During a period of heightened option premiums it's easier to take the risk of time potentially eroding paper capital gains on shares.
    Oct 11 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    It really is pretty amazing how lower energy prices aren't being greeted as something that will fuel consumer spending, corporate profits, etc...

    The thing with higher volatility, if it persists, is that it changes your total approach to managing your portfolio (as discussed in this week's Week in Review)

    You will likely do much more DOH trading, but get better premiums and make far fewer new purchases, while even rolling over those headed for assignment. You're also more likely to use longer term contracts.

    The downside is that the DOH kind of trades are higher maintenance as you generally want to keep them from being assigned.
    Oct 11 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]

    You can still hate Halliburton. I have no great love for its legacy and refer to it, BP and Transocean as "The Evil Troika," but what better way to get back than to take advantage?
    Oct 11 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    Perhaps on both counts, but he has strung everyone along for quite a while. Why is he just now beginning to point fingers to identify a problem long in the tooth?

    My take on these revelations is one that's well shared
    Oct 11 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Who's Consuming All Those Shakes? And Why... [View article]

    I hate to be a pest in asking you for the 3rd time, but do you have a link from a credible source that corroborates your assertion that Allan Kippax was either sentenced or convicted in 2014?

    With your self-acknowledged investigative skills you should be able to provide that information, considering that the individual was a reasonably high profile one, with regard to numerous activities.

    I'm somewhat surprised that you haven't done so. It's one thing to express your opinions without having the benefit with plausible evidence, but when you state something as a matter of fact, most reasonable people would anticipate that you could provide the evidence for which you proudly pound your chest.
    Oct 10 05:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Who's Consuming All Those Shakes? And Why... [View article]
    You're welcome. I hope it helped.

    Again, read any corporate offering. They are meant to dissuade you from investing in order to protect themselves from allegations of misleading the public. IPOs and secondary offerings are very forthright with comments such as "no guarantee can be made of the existence of a market for such securities or services and such markets may not materialize......"

    Given the events and scrutiny that Herbalife is under and the fact that they do not know the outcome, what could they say otherwise? What they have said is entirely reflective of the environment as it exists & discloses the potential liabilities. Saying so is not an admission of anything other than the admission that such events may be possible.

    Do you not see a difference between agreeing that a series of events may turn out to be so and admitting that such a potential series of events is warranted?

    Divulging that they may be at risk for being shut down is very different from saying that they have been wrong in their business practices. However, when some decisions are finally made, a portion of any judgment may very well include corporate admission of wrongdoing.

    As most anyone knows, those kind of admissions are done to mitigate other far more punitive actions
    Oct 9 02:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Who's Consuming All Those Shakes? And Why... [View article]
    Your logic is absent, but again, attempting to interpret based upon what will make your thesis self-fulfilling.

    You make changes for any number of reasons, including trying to be proactive in an attempt to lead the marketplace rather than follow it.

    Changes aren't necessarily done because of errors or mistakes. They are also made when the environment around you changes or is in the process of change and threatens to diminish your continued performance.

    The real mistake may be in not making change.
    Oct 9 02:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Who's Consuming All Those Shakes? And Why... [View article]
    Six, have you never read corporate offerings? Everything stated is always highly qualified in terms of predicting outcomes and pointing out potential liabilities. Lawyers like to have full disclosures clearly made so that they can say "don't say I didn't tell you so" if the need arises.

    I would focus on the word "could," which you clearly have not, as further reflection of your analytical approach that overlooks anything that doesn't fit a pre-existing thesis.

    In the event that you still don't understand the concept, the word "could" is used used to express conditional possibility or ability. Further, just in case you need further explanation, the word "conditional" means not absolute
    Oct 9 10:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • And An Empty Suit Shall Lead Them [View article]
    It was, but what are you going to do?

    I'd like to at least have the opportunity to do that a little bit more, but for the past year those premiums have just been so low, except during those mini-corrections.
    Oct 9 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment