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George Acs  

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  • Too Much Of A Good Thing [View article]
    I think it's hard not to believe what Janet Yellen says or in her sincerity, but you do have to wonder how what she said could be so quickly undone, just 2 days later, when Stanley Fischer spoke.

    Emotion will always be part of the equation but it seems that a rational market would have said "wait a second, the really important person in the process said "A" was the likely course, while the second most person said it was "B".

    The role for emotion in comparing those two positions should have been small and limited. Someone had to have the right frame of mind to say "wait a second, the boss just discounted a near term rate hike and she's had a track record of being credible."

    I would weigh those somewhat opposing views and go with the most influential person in that decision process and not completely forget about her stance just 2 days later.

    The other part is also just strange. Like you pointed out, there's no reason to think that the rate hikes, when they come, won't be anything other than small and then slowly and methodically afterward, as may be necessary.

    That's the stuff to cause a near 300 point sell-off? Not a real great sign of confidence. It's like when the owner of a sports team says that he supports the team manager "100%".
    Mar 8, 2015. 09:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Too Much Of A Good Thing [View article]
    That just adds to the ridiculousness of the market's response. The FOMC has not given any indication of doing anything other than such an increase yet the response was so far out of proportion.

    As far as being 20 years old again, I'm not certain I'd be thinking about 4% interest rates if I had the opportunity to turn back the clock. Taking advantage of low rates might take a back seat to taking advantage of other things that don't cycle, only wane with time.
    Mar 8, 2015. 09:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Too Much Of A Good Thing [View article]
    Thanks and the black-out shades I've had installed should be a message that I know you're watching
    Mar 8, 2015. 09:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Could Do With Less Transparency [View article]
    I think that pretty much sums up the entire week. Just look at the first 3 days and how they made reasonably large moves, including intra-day moves, in alternating directions, on absolutely no news.

    I thought that maybe Thursday had restored some sanity as the market simply did nothing in response to nothing. But yesterday's sell-off in response to what we all know is going to happen at some point within the coming year, seems a little ridiculous
    Mar 7, 2015. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Could Do With Less Transparency [View article]
    I always keep some uncovered as portfolio protection, but also write some deep out of the money LEAPS and occasionally close and re-open those in order to generate some income at strike levels high enough to still accomplish what they are intended to do. .

    I had closed some Jan 2016 $105 for the 3rd time this year, but all in January.

    I've been waiting for another opportunity to sell those, with today's sell-off bringing it a little closer to reality.
    Mar 6, 2015. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Could Do With Less Transparency [View article]
    I sold some VXX $28 puts a few weeks ago and have been rolling over, currently 3/13, in addition to portfolio protection long shares.

    VXX had not moved very much earlier in the week when the market was trading lower, as I would have expected. It did, however, move lower on any intra-day reversals.

    Even today it was very slow in beginning to reflect the market decline, but did finally take off at about 10:45 AM when the market began to slide.
    Mar 6, 2015. 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Could Do With Less Transparency [View article]
    Ultimately commodity cycles play out and the good times disappear just as the bad times do.

    The commodities involved in real economic growth, metals, coal and oil, are definitely in a bear market but there has to be a better day ahead unless the lessons from history are going to need to be re-written
    Mar 6, 2015. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Could Do With Less Transparency [View article]
    Thanks.

    This has really been an interesting year.

    For me, what stands out the most, is the unusually harsh treatment stocks that have disappointed on earnings have received, but also the unusually long time for their price recovery. That's been understandable when dealing with companies that were more of the high growth variety, but not as understandable when happening with companies that have had a long history of performance.
    Mar 6, 2015. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Could Do With Less Transparency [View article]
    Thanks. Good to know, but still perplexing
    Mar 2, 2015. 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Could Do With Less Transparency [View article]
    It's all about the business.

    Way behind the curve my wife and I just started watching "House of Cards." Living in the DC Beltway area watching only the first 2 episodes thus far does nothing to dispel the belief that we should know as little about the process as possible.

    Somehow I forgot to include a reference to sausage making in the article. Some times it's just best not to have any clue.
    Mar 1, 2015. 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Could Do With Less Transparency [View article]
    Thank you.

    My son had an account there a few years ago and when asked, was told that the ability to sell covered puts was coming "soon."

    I definitely do understand wanting to provide a level of consumer protection, but maybe some tighter reins on margin would be a better place to focus upon.
    Mar 1, 2015. 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Could Do With Less Transparency [View article]
    It takes some of the premium out, but in the event of a large decline in share price what takes over is the momentum and the uncertainty of even further price drops.

    Getting called early on a put is a little surprising unless the holder of the contract thought shares were going to rebound quickly or the option was so deep in the money that there was no longer any particular advantage to trying to trade the option itself, as time was also running out on the contract.

    I actually bought shares in the afterhours following earnings, something that I very rarely do. I thought that the selling was over done at that point and thought that there would be a decent rebound in the morning, as there was already one during the after-hours that would have allowed a quick profit if I had closed out the position.

    But the next morning shares really dived further during and after Meg Whitman's interview on CNBC. She offered a really weak defense of HP's prospects, put far too much emphasis on currency and the costs related to the break-up process.

    I think that if the market moves higher or stays at the same level in the near term HP will make back all of what it just lost fairly quickly, if Friday's performance is going to be any indication.
    Mar 1, 2015. 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Could Do With Less Transparency [View article]
    Thanks, but that wasn't always the case. The last time I heard any one comment about Scottrade specifically not allowing cash covered put sales was probably a year ago. I'm certain that the brokerages that don't must have had their reasons, just as those that have made the change, as @MadMary indicated that her brokerage has done, must have had their reasons, too.

    Sometimes, though, those reasons may be a mystery, particularly as selling a cash covered put carries no more risk than buying stock shares outright.
    Mar 1, 2015. 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Could Do With Less Transparency [View article]
    Sometimes you just need to get rid of the skates and go for a swim
    Mar 1, 2015. 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Could Do With Less Transparency [View article]
    If they're otherwise in a buy and hold kind of an account you can supplement their income then by selecting a "stretch" strike level - one that you wouldn't expect it to reach even in that one year time frame. If you can add an additional 1% a year on your return then you're way ahead of most everyone else.

    The nice thing is that if you have one of those blue chips assigned there is almost always another blue chip that will have been a relative under-performer ready to take its place.
    Mar 1, 2015. 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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