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George Acs

 
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  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    I generally don't care too much about the details of the business operations or practices of companies that I invest in. I tend to be agnostic to that sort of thing. All I really care about is whether the company can serve as a vehicle to deliver stock profits, in what hopefully will be a series of short term trades.

    How they get to their profits and how companies do business isn't very much different from making sausage. FOr most people the details aren't terribly important and are well worth over-looking
    Nov 9, 2014. 03:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    That was a very good summary of what CY is all about for traders. It may not be a gret stock for investors, but it otherwise can be a great addition to a portfolio.

    I'm not a terribly big fan of TJ Rodgers as far as his increasing forays into political issues, but I admire him for not only leading CY but for being a leading technology incubator.
    Nov 9, 2014. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    Sorry for the typo in my previous response. That was for the 11/14 expiration, not 10/14, which has large open interest for the $31.50 and $32 puts
    Nov 9, 2014. 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    Thanks, but I don't really follow open interest or volume very closely.

    The previous week I did notice some very significant option trades in Intel for the 10/31 expiration and the 10/14 on the put side with a lot of open interest still remaining on the 11/14 $32 put. What was interesting about those trades is that the 10/31 trade was for an in the money put which expired worthless, and with very little of the position seeming to be rolled to forward weeks.

    But otherwise, it's not something that gets my attention very often unless there's a large unexplained move in underlying shares.
    Nov 9, 2014. 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    If you ever want to see some real manipulation going on in front of your eyes just watch stocks as their options are about to expire if they are trading near a strike price. It is absolutely amazing the battles that go on in trying to move those shares to or away from that strike.

    Those pennies definitely can add up.
    Nov 9, 2014. 11:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    This has been, though, a difficult year for any kind of actively managed portfolio, whether professionally managed or as an individual. The constant rotation of sectors and the very large moves to the downside as a stock or sector has fallen out of favor, has made passivity work this year, to the point that it is delivering the alpha.

    The last month for AZO has been pretty impressive, even when compared to an almost 10% increase in the S&P 500. I wouldn't be too surprised if stocks that have moved like AZO get the attention of those looking to make up for their performance to date. Momentum is momentum. It doesn't necessarily have to be in a speculative kind of stock.
    Nov 9, 2014. 11:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    What's more amazing, to me, at least, is that Bullard has since applauded the end of QE, but also when the FOMC Statement was released last week the BUllard inspired rally didn't reverse its course.

    Of course, that raises the possibility that the market's sudden upturn was only coincidentally related to Bullard's comments or perhaps technically inspired.
    Nov 9, 2014. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    While Mattel has traded flatly during the final 2 months of each year, Abercrombie has had no pattern over the past 10 years.

    I'm hopeful that Friday's sell-off was well overdone, but have to wonder if the other shoe will drop in a couple of weeks, as it has at any number of companies that have issued warnings this year. For that reason, if testing the possibilities, I'm inclined to do it with puts. Granted, that limits the profit potential, but on a risk - reward spectrum that seems more reasonable to me in advance of earnings.
    Nov 9, 2014. 07:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    Sounds good, but comments about insider selling not really backed up by facts. To suggest that there's a dump phase, especially if believing that it is being led by insiders, is without base.

    Further, the allegation that share buybacks buoyed share price allowing insiders to profit isn't a one way street. Any shareholder would reap the same benefit and as anyone knows, those buybacks have been seen across the market and certainly not isolated to eBay. In such case, you may as well make the same allegation against every single company engaged in a buyback of their stock. Presumably it's done to generate some benefit. Anyone is free to sell there shares to take advantage of any benefit that may be derived from buybacks. There isn't, however, the slightest evidence that insiders are doing so at unusual levels.

    The "bag" you refer to is also the same for every stock. Woe to anyone buying at what may turn out to be a high level
    Nov 9, 2014. 07:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    I agree with you about doubting the validity of the capitulation that everyone seems to be embracing.

    It seems that the size of the intra-day drop, rather than its quality is all that anyone cared about, but historically that isn't what has characterized a "capitulation."

    While the market went down some 400 points early in the session, there was never a feeling of panic as it occurred. It was fairly orderly and wasn't marked by a rapidly and ever declining market.

    Also, the recovery from a real capitulation tends to come the following day after even some more selling.

    It was simply a large drop and we've had quite a few of those over the past 10 years that have signified nothing at all.
    Nov 9, 2014. 07:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    Over the past nearly 30 years we have had about 4 periods when both new investors and new financial services people have been washed out. Those are the ones that came into the systems before breakdowns. They all thought they were geniuses, not realizing that markets can and do go down, as well.

    When I first started out and an avid reader of Money Magazine, back in the days when there weren't many choices for individual investors other than expensive commissions or mutual funds, I always remembered Money Magazine's mutual fund ratings and how much emphasis they placed on the ability of a fund to perform in down markets. That has always stayed with me as a cardinal goal when investing. It can be alright to (within reason) trail a surging market, but you better make up for it with out-performance when the market is flailing.
    Nov 9, 2014. 07:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    Have I mentioned that I've been wrong before in reading and interpreting the tea leaves?
    Nov 8, 2014. 06:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    I thought about the 3 big stories of the week, starting with elections, ECB and the Employment Situation Report.

    The surprise was that in the absence of an electoral surprise the market acted as if it was surprised. The other two events were absolute yawners.

    No doubt that if materials and energy have a well deserved bounce I will be in a much happier mood, At least CLF has its dividend this week and coal is behaving as if everyone believes that starting in 2015 the newly elected Congress is going to re-institute the Wild, Wild West and scrap all regulation.
    Nov 8, 2014. 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    The only things that concern me about ANF are the safety of the dividend, as mentioned in the article and the fact that the market has compounded the disappointments of earnings warnings once the warnings themselves came out a number of times this year, across a broad range of stocks.

    I've had good luck with Twitter, especially when it's out of favor. I think that, absent a market drop taking everything with it, the bad news from Twitter has halted. At this point any developments should be positive ones, relatively speaking, as it has really been an onslaught with everyone piling on.
    Nov 8, 2014. 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    Even if buying homes for cash, human nature is to live according to the standard the you expect to be able to maintain. That means if you counted those chickens before they hatched you can certainly run into some cash flow issues along the way.

    Many who are used to receiving a substantial bonus at year end, or quarterly, may rely on credit lines to live up to their standards until they receive the bonuses, restore their credit lines and splurge some more, especially if they never perceive a rainy day to be around the corner.

    But this is the second consecutive year that there's going to be fallout and it's pouring.

    As far as ETFs beating hedge funds year in and year out, I suppose that's true if you happen to be lucky enough to be in the right sector at the right time year in and year out, but by and large, the performance of hedge funds is pretty good, especially in down markets when protecting your assets is really critical.
    The 2/20, which is much maligned, really isn't a terribly bad arrangement for anyone that has had a managed account kind of experience. There's especially something appealing about having your fund manager be aligned with your interests.
    Nov 8, 2014. 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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