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George Acs  

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  • The Federal Reserve Takes A Vacation [View article]
    I remember that scene. Definitely an appropriate one for the situation..

    We actually saw "Vacation" this weekend and there were some good laughs. The parking lot at the theater was packed, but there were plenty of seats in our theater.
    Aug 4, 2015. 07:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Takes A Vacation [View article]
    I appreciate your clarification, but again, that is an issue from the top. If you place blame on the contract requirements then the issue has its roots in the contract and those in a position to have negotiated the contract.

    It's not terribly different from having parents who are drug addicted and high school drop-outs. Are you really going to blame their child for his shortcomings when the environment forms much of his potential behavior?
    Aug 4, 2015. 07:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Takes A Vacation [View article]
    Thanks, but sadly, I need to update it to add even more flecks of gray.
    Aug 4, 2015. 07:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Takes A Vacation [View article]
    After today, it may take intestinal fortitude just to face tomorrow.

    I picked up INTC and ANF in the first 90 minutes today, but should have waited on the ANF, not having expected the additional market downturn. But at least there are 4 more days left for things to work out.

    I don't know if you've downloaded Windows 10. Microsoft may regret giving it away for free and the chip makers may regret it, too. SO far, it seems like a really intuitive OS and much more user friendly than Windows 8, while still evolving the operating system so that desktops and tablets (and maybe phones, too) seem to be the same.

    If Windows 10 is the real thing, even as a freebie for existing users, it may mark the opportunity to finally push some hardware upgrades that Intel craves.

    DOW keeps going down with oil. No one believed Liveris in January when he said the low oil prices were good for DOW and then he proved it with earnings each of the past 2 quarters. Yet, they still don't believe.

    Believe it or not, I like all comments and try to respond. I think most all comments are thoughtful and I especially like when there are cross comments from one reader to another, especially when they're constructive.
    Aug 3, 2015. 06:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Takes A Vacation [View article]
    As the movie title once said "It's Complicated."
    Aug 3, 2015. 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Takes A Vacation [View article]
    Reading your article still didn't make it into a good day, but it was a very thorough analysis.
    Aug 3, 2015. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Takes A Vacation [View article]
    Thanks.

    That's why it's so great to be a technician. You can always be right.
    Aug 3, 2015. 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Takes A Vacation [View article]
    As was mine, your opinion is anecdotal. Unless you manage a government departmental budget, it's difficult to get quantitative about presumed waste or inefficiency.

    That's a very different issue from your original comment which was directed squarely at "government employees," most of whom don't make the decisions regarding strategy and resource allocation. They simply work at a job as is expected of them in the same way most people work at a job. If there is a problem, it flows from the top and not the bottom.
    Aug 3, 2015. 02:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Takes A Vacation [View article]
    The economy has apparently been weaker than anyone believed it would be when 2015 got underway, or at the very least the theories regarding increasing employment and lower gas costs haven't done as much to light a spark as had been hypothesized by most.

    Yet, the market is still within 2% of its all time highs.

    Still, if the economy is weaker than most believed it would be at this point, that's not the sort of thing likely to serve as a catalyst for a global depression.
    Aug 3, 2015. 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Takes A Vacation [View article]
    The key word is "supposed" to be lent out. While there's some evidence of recent increased lending, there's not too much disagreement that since 2008 the re-circulation of money into the economy from savings, wherever they have been stored, has been much reduced, as banks have not been lending, for a variety of reasons, including regulatory requirements.

    Given that new reality, it's hard to blame Bernanke for policies that may have not rewarded savers, who were indirectly being punished by banks not doing what banks were supposed to be doing.

    I didn't blame savers for saving. I indicated that the Federal Reserve placed greater hopes on helping the economy by helping those who would be more likely to re-circulate cash. It's not an issue of whether the investor class or the saver class is inherently better for the economy. They each have to deal with the environment that exists at a moment in time
    Aug 3, 2015. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Takes A Vacation [View article]
    There's no question that the Federal Reserve hasn't necessarily been a friend to savers over the past 6 years. However, when you look at the macro picture investors are far more important to the economy than are savers.

    One takes money out of the economy, while the other circulates and re-circulates it.

    I want irrational dumping of stock, as well. You can't blame anyone for wanting to buy something at an unnecessarily reduced price. Would you not go into a store that was having a Going Out of Business Sale" if there were products you wanted at prices you couldn't resist?

    That has nothing to do with Wall Street, it has to do with a human desire to be opportunistic.
    Aug 3, 2015. 12:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Takes A Vacation [View article]
    That scenario doesn't seem too likely, unless you're of a mind that rates will be raised to levels not seen in 30+ years and done in a very rapid manner.
    Aug 3, 2015. 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Takes A Vacation [View article]
    I agree that a modest rate in interest rate hikes should not have a negative impact for anything more than a day or two of trading. History confirms that the early stages of rate increases are viewed ultimately as validation of an expanding economy and is good news.

    The fears are irrational, but they are rampant and have been for more than a year.

    Your thought process can't be argued, except that rational thought processes don't necessarily have good predictive value.
    Aug 3, 2015. 12:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Takes A Vacation [View article]
    Living near DC and knowing many people who are Federal government employees, I can only tell you that my experience is significantly different.

    That's not to say that there isn't government waste and inefficiency, but you should probably look toward the top of the pyramid in any given agency or department, rather than to the ones attempting to fulfill the mission.
    Aug 3, 2015. 12:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Takes A Vacation [View article]
    When does the first half of the article ever have anything to do with the second half? However, the second half of your opening sentence has little to do with the second half of that sentence.

    The theme is vacation and the closing thought is vacation. Beautifully spun, I might say (even if I don't believe that to be the case).

    As far as your question as to what the relationship is between the FOMC raising rates and the stock market's performance, as I've written on a number of occasions, the actual longer term impact is a positive one, in the early phases of a rising interest rate environments.

    What is more salient, however, is the crazed speculation that occurs whenever there is a suggestion that rates may finally go higher. It's hard to deny that there has been a relationship between those two and the response has been blind as to the historical behavior of markets in response to early rate increases.

    As far as spot interest rates go, you could have said very much the same a few weeks ago and then found that the sentiment on interest rates had changed. That has occured numerous times over the past few months and has seen 10% swings in rates in a matter of days in intermediate term securities, such as the 10 Year.

    That could again easily be the situation by the end of this week if the Employment Situation numbers turn out to be a disappointment
    Aug 3, 2015. 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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