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George Acs

 
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  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    I had no position in Netflix, but have to agree with you on both counts. Well, well overblown and absolutely amazing to then hear everyone bashing the stock.
    Oct 18 07:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    I don't really know, other than it had lost so much value over the past month and for no reason, at all.

    I sold calls on Thursday, but went out to December 20, rarely going that far, but this way there's plenty of time to get over earnings and still capture the dividend.
    Oct 18 07:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    I wasn't watching Netflix during the day, so didn't see what the impact of the HBO announcement was, although I didn't think Comcast should have suffered too much, after all, how many people subscribe to cable just to get HBO, which appears how the market reacted. I think they may have over-estimated the number of potentially lost subscribers as a result.

    But the after hour Netflix numbers were pretty stunning. Besides the competition, Netflix has also put itself in an unenviable position of being only as good as your most recent hits and the sub numbers, to which they're obviously very sensitive, will come and go with those hits or misses.

    It's also a bad sign that another price increase is being blamed for the reduced subscriber statistics. Apparently, they're not very loyal and very price sensitive. A bad combination.
    Oct 16 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    You're using way too much logic. It is really amazing when such small misses or beats get leveraged so much in share price.

    A 0.5% miss in top line sends shares down nearly 8 fold or about $2.5B in market cap.

    Now that makes perfect sense.
    Oct 15 09:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    Most of the time, in hindsight, very few of those sellers got out at the right time. I think it's usually better to weather the pain of paper losses and ride it out. Even in the depths of 2007-9 that would have worked. It's just really hard to sit by passively, but it gets easier when you realize you are your own worst enemy.
    Oct 15 09:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    Just a wild day today, but never much of a hint of any kind of frenzy.

    Some of those "good until cancelled" orders can get executed when you least expect it or if you turn away for the slightest moment during these kind of markets.

    I've had a number of DOH trades not get executed on Monday and Tuesday, but not for lack of trying. There just wasn't any buying going up in the option markets even during those brief moments that shares were moving higher. They just weren't buying the moves.
    Oct 15 09:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    You really do have to believe in that logic. It's one thing to see large precipitous drops in stocks that had large precipitous rises, but in the absence of company or sector specific news, there's not much reason to see those drops in stocks that had gradual price climbs.

    The sheer number of S&P stocks that are in correction territory is really unusually high and not very warranted. It's actually keeping me from making some DOH trades right now because I can't really see the reasoning for some of them to not be able to have a reflexive bounce much higher.
    Oct 14 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    Getting any two sides to agree on anything, especially when it has to do with money, isn't the easiest thing in the world to accomplish. I'm not a big believer in any orchestrated action to drive prices lower, although it is intriguing that there's no real talk of OPEC production reductions. Maybe they just really need the money and don't have the patience to wait for decreased supply to kick back into the equation.
    Oct 14 07:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    Depending on your investing time horizons you can certainly have different guidelines for when to enter a position.

    For the longer term horizon that you are presenting there is certainly much less reason to be price sensitive.

    However, when considering the use of a shorter term covered option strategy, price can be critical, particularly as it can impact upon the ability to create subsequent income streams following an unexpected price decline.
    Oct 13 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    Opportunity? Yes, but when?

    Even "the wise" can't know when price represents value versus value trap or where on the continuum a falling price resides.

    Even "the wise" can't avoid looking foolish when buying at what looked like a better price turned out to be an even better price the following day.

    I'm not quite clear as to what your final comment means. The sell side exists because it makes money and it also makes the buy side possible. If the markets fall and fall hard, it seems as if the sell side will do better than the buy side unless the buy side somehow can have perfect timing. I certainly don't mind selling at the beginning of a large decline and letting someone else take the losses to come.

    But also, "the wise" that find themselves in a position to buy mightily during a market decline must fall into one of two categories. In the most idealized scenario they also exhibited perfect timing by selling their positions at their peaks and have held onto cash awaiting the bottom, or they simply had cash that wasn't participating in the previous rally. In the former case, they would truly have been wise, but in the latter case? Not so much
    Oct 12 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    You should have let me know. My kids were on WH South Lawn last week there for the President's lift off aboard Marine One, en route ultimately to California. Maybe they could have breached the security perimeter to have delivered your message.

    That would have given us something to talk about.

    We really need something to restore confidence. The concern is that a capitulation may not really be one, but rather a step toward even lower levels.

    If Europe can hold steady tomorrow that would really help markets here, especially with a banking holiday to contend with.
    What I would like to see is 2 steps back and 2.2 steps forward. That would ratchet up volatility without asset erosion. Could it happen that way? Maybe, but as we approach the end of the year people may want to start securing profits and may be more willing to sell now, than risk losing the gains by waiting until after the New Year.
    With potential panic at hand from Ebola now part of the equation, it may not take much to get markets to move decidedly lower. Let's watch that 200 dma tomorrow morning, too.
    Oct 12 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    I hope that's the case, although it's always a good buying opportunity. The trick is to convert it into a good profit opportunity.

    Where there is some concern is that the three previous times that HAL sank below its 200dma, it stayed there for a while before starting its return higher.
    Oct 11 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    I generally think of positions in terms of a week at a time. Since the coming week is also the last week of an option cycle that kind of thinking may even apply to stocks such as Fastenal, that only offer monthly options.

    You offer two different "ifs" in your warnings regarding the downside to waiting for the ex-dividend date. One is that shares will move higher upon earnings and then that by the time the ex-dividend date rolls around, the presumably substantial gains will be lost.

    Perhaps.

    I, on the other hand, would likely consider the sale of puts and if likely to be assigned, usually consider rolling over the contracts in an attempt to avoid assignment. However, in the case of an imminent ex-dividend date I take that into consideration and would be more likely to accept assignment and then sell calls on the position.

    During a period of heightened option premiums it's easier to take the risk of time potentially eroding paper capital gains on shares.
    Oct 11 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    It really is pretty amazing how lower energy prices aren't being greeted as something that will fuel consumer spending, corporate profits, etc...

    The thing with higher volatility, if it persists, is that it changes your total approach to managing your portfolio (as discussed in this week's Week in Review)

    You will likely do much more DOH trading, but get better premiums and make far fewer new purchases, while even rolling over those headed for assignment. You're also more likely to use longer term contracts.

    The downside is that the DOH kind of trades are higher maintenance as you generally want to keep them from being assigned.
    Oct 11 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Muzzling [View article]
    Thanks.

    You can still hate Halliburton. I have no great love for its legacy and refer to it, BP and Transocean as "The Evil Troika," but what better way to get back than to take advantage?
    Oct 11 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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