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George Acs  

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  • That Ship Has Sailed [View article]
    Hard to imagine where the bond folks would go in that context. If you don't particularly care to take on risk it seems implausible to shift to stocks.

    But who knows. Logic has never been a good place to go for answers
    May 3, 2015. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • That Ship Has Sailed [View article]
    Of course, you also have to ask what the bond market was thinking in March when rates spiked about 10% and went to about 2.25% in short order to just as quickly get down to 1.85%.

    Hopefully those bond traders were trading and making some money. Otherwise, they don't look as smart as they're portrayed to be.
    May 3, 2015. 11:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • That Ship Has Sailed [View article]
    I think that the financial sector doing well when reporting is a necessary condition for the rest of the market to do well, but is not sufficient.

    The various currents that you mentioned are definitely worth attention, but it's that gnawing feeling that when you're at the top there's more likelihood of falling than climbing higher that I can't seem to be able to escape.
    May 3, 2015. 11:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • That Ship Has Sailed [View article]
    I refer to the broad market when discussing the earnings season to date and not positions or sectors in which I'm invested.

    I mentioned YELP, LNKD and TWTR, for example, but as companies to illustrate a point regarding market reaction to non-currency related disappointment. The fact that I mentioned them doesn't mean that they're part of my portfolio, although I did sell TWTR puts after earnings were released.

    As a covered option seller I usually prefer markets that are moving lower or bouncing up and down, regardless of the reason.
    May 3, 2015. 11:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    Absolutely. I'm not one to jump the gun, and we still have tomorrow's trades. but at the moment the S&P 500 is down 1.5% for the week and OTP is up 0.4% (of course, strength in energy sector stocks helps, too, just as it had hurt earlier in the year). Every option sale just cushions the bad stuff a little and makes it also just a little easier to ride out whatever storm may be ahead.
    Apr 30, 2015. 10:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    The option buyer is betting on a single direction of the move and in a defined time frame. If he's wrong, he either loses and gets out of the trade or doubles down and extends the time frame. It is the ultimate in attempting to time a stock.

    The option seller, really doesn't care about the direction, although he would probably prefer to not see large magnitude moves in either direction. He also doesn't care that much about the time frame. Generally, rolling over a sale just adds more income.

    Where the option buyer benefits is if he has a really large win and is disciplined enough to cut losses on other positions and move on. Both of those are really difficult to do.

    Where the option seller benefits is over the long haul, assuming a decent selection of underlying stocks upon which options have been sold. No big wins, just lots and lots of little ones, dividends and maybe some capital gains on shares.
    Apr 30, 2015. 12:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    You've come to the right place if you're talking about hedging longs, particularly is using the hedges as a source of income.

    Have your forum meet ours.
    Apr 29, 2015. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    That 4% move in the 10 year got my attention this morning
    Apr 29, 2015. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    Christine,

    I've been rolling over 3 different lots of GDX for the past 7 months.

    At the current price of $20.50, the ROI is a bit higher than 25% on an average entry price of $21.

    I also very actively selling calls on AGQ and those have been great as silver just goes back and forth.
    Apr 29, 2015. 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    Sorry.

    A retirement strategy is at http://seekingalpha.co...

    Also, for a little bit more on LEAPS http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 29, 2015. 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    Amazon didn't really give up the fight. They simply had to start collecting sales tax in any state in which they had a physical presence. As they've been growing their fulfillment centers to be able to get packages delivered more quickly, the number of states in which they have brick and mortar operations has expanded.

    They had no choice in those states.

    But by now, it seems that shoppers who were once attracted to Amazon to a large degree because of the sales tax savings don't care that much about that anymore and now put value on time savings, ease of returns and whatever else Amazon may offer.
    Apr 28, 2015. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    That earlier comment I made about getting a bolus of money to invest, such as the scenario you just described, is really appropriate. The key is that you are better off missing some part of the rally because you went into the market a bit at a time, than being on the wrong end of a decline when you're all in.

    Here's an old article I wrote specifically regarding retirement and the use of option sales. The stock selections may need to be reconsidered nearly 3 years later, but the keys are safety, income generation and low trading maintenance. The use of longer term options, LEAPS, especially with high dividend paying blue chip stocks is a low maintenance way to go.
    Apr 28, 2015. 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    I'll be seeing Meg Whitman's husband in about a month. I'll ask him what's going on over there. We were never tight, so I'm guessing he will spill all.
    Apr 28, 2015. 12:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    Thank you.

    As I always say, come for the article and stay for the comments.

    Don't get me started on TA.

    If you come from a medical research or public health area, you always think in terms of sensitivity, specificity, false negatives and false positives. Those are among measures that are used to assess validity, such as for a diagnostic test.

    What is technical analysis other than a diagnostic test? But where is the validity testing? How many false negatives and false positives can any one take and see their portfolio survive?
    Apr 28, 2015. 09:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    You're right.

    I typically write these articles Friday evening or Saturday morning and almost always refer to the week just ended as "the past week."

    I generally refer to events that we now see as the current week as being "the coming week." I should have used that terminology to reduce potential confusion.

    In my earlier iteration of this series of weekly articles I did more frequently use actual dates, but the suggestion was that doing so was "clunky."

    More precise, yes; but clunky, also yes.
    Apr 28, 2015. 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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