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George Acs  

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  • I Think You Have The Wrong Number [View article]
    I use the same channel checking when it comes to my wife's closet and shoes.
    May 25, 2015. 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Think You Have The Wrong Number [View article]
    I agree with your sentiment. I've written before articles about my belief that dividends themselves are not really worthwhile. People often make the logical error of pointing to the returns of companies that pay dividends versus those that don't and make the conclusion that it was the dividend that was responsible for the long term track record, when it was really the long term track record that made the dividend possible.

    But aside from the optics of believing that you have more money as a result of the dividend payment, there's the reality of having more money of there's an inefficiency in option premium pricing for some stocks going ex-dividend. I don't mind getting the dividend if I know that someone's premium is offsetting a portion of the price decline resulting from the dividend payment and is in excess of the premium that would normally be available during a non ex-dividend week.
    May 25, 2015. 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Think You Have The Wrong Number [View article]
    No, no reason at all, except possibly violating the wash sales rule, if in a taxable account.

    Strictly speaking, even if the position was in a taxable deferred account you would be in violation if you then bought shares for a tax deferred account within the 30 day period of having sustained the loss.
    May 25, 2015. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Think You Have The Wrong Number [View article]
    Yes. Exactly. See the title of last week's article. It's all about denial and rationalization.

    But here's one other factor to consider.

    What makes me think that if I were such a genius (sarcasm, in case you weren't aware), as to have picked such a loser of a stock that I would be any less of that same genius when it comes to replacing it?

    I look at the possibility, maybe the probability, that by getting out of an old and losing position, I may be setting myself up to compound those losses by rolling into a new position.

    I learned something similar years ago when I found myself buying back options at a big loss when a stock ran higher, thinking that I could share in the stock gains. But you certainly know what happens then.

    You take the loss in buying back the options only to see the shares give up those gains and, thereby compounding the loss.

    No, in fact, the short week may end up seeing a delay in the next article. I'll actually be in Boston for the weekend and unless I can get everything written up by Friday afternoon, which is unlikely, there may not be one until next Monday morning.
    May 25, 2015. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Think You Have The Wrong Number [View article]
    That final point is a great one.

    Whatever the particular difficulties with measuring and then adjusting the data, at the every least you can feel some comfort in the fact that the data isn't being manipulated for political purposes.

    I threw in the references to China for that reason. It's one thing to not trust data because of the methodology, but it's entirely different thing to not trust the data because of manipulation.

    Methodology can always be fine tuned and adjusted. Political whims are an entirely different matter.
    May 25, 2015. 09:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Think You Have The Wrong Number [View article]
    The diversification part is sometimes hard to be faithful toward.

    If you start with a diversified portfolio and something gets assigned, the natural inclination is to want to replace it with something in the same sector in order to maintain that diversification. But what if that whole sector had just moved higher, resulting in your shares being assigned. Do you really want to replace it with something that may be on the high end of its range?

    For that reason I sometimes take the "draft the best athlete" strategy, rather than focusing on the position they play, when its time to reallocate.

    The problem is that you do have to keep an eye on the relative proportions even as you do that, as it's easy to get really overloaded if a particular sector is in a longer than normal decline relative to other sectors.

    For me, that has been the case with energy and at one time retail.

    As far as the spreadsheets go, it's important to have some kind of a gauge and measurement tool that meets individual goals and objectives. I think it's also important to keep doing the measurement even when you believe you have a really good handle on things. Otherwise it's easy for gradual erosion away from your objectives to be occurring and making it hard to do tweaking to how you apply a strategy.

    When it comes to seeing positions assigned well below their purchase price, unless I need the tax loss, I try really hard to roll them over, even if for just pennies. More often than not, when in that position, I'll look for expiration dates that are far enough away to offer a chance for some price correction of the previous advance. Sometimes it;s helpful to select an expiration when earnings will be announced. That way you get a larger premium as you roll the dice with seeing shares go even higher or maybe giving back some of those gains, which would make it even easier to rollover again.

    I've been doing that with a single lot of AGQ, that I have been consistently writing calls on for more than a year. Back in January 2015, when I thought it was really safe to do so, I wrote a $39.50 call for a contract lasting just a day or two, but did so right before a price strike. Those shares originally cost about $50 and I didn't want to lose them.

    Since then, they've been threatened with assignment many times, but I always look for some way to roll them over and stay alive for another week, month or whatever it takes, while awaiting some price moderation to possibly see the calls expire. I just looked through my spreadsheet and those calls have been rolled over 12 times since the first week of January.

    It's now rolled over to June 19, but have been able to work the strike up to $46, while getting a cumulative $5.79 in premiums, in addition to whatever other premiums accumulated in 2014.

    Sounds great, but it can be a little nerve racking at times and can require more maintenance than many can find the time or the justification to give.
    May 25, 2015. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Think You Have The Wrong Number [View article]
    TIF reports earnings on 5/27. I haven't owned shares in a couple of years and was considering including it this week.

    Thanks, I used to not like shortened trading weeks, when this was just an avocation. Now I look forward to them
    May 25, 2015. 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • One Man's Self-Deceit Is Another Man's Rationalization [View article]
    Unless I'm on the losing side, I get a kick out of watching some of the price gyrations in the after hours after earnings have been released. It's just amazing to me how reckless some people can be and how quickly the responses to news are re-interpreted.

    But even the next day, sometimes the buying or selling after news just doesn't make sense. Whenever you see such large moves all it should do is call into question the ability of analysts to do their jobs or the ability of companies to communicate meaningful information to analysts to help them do their jobs.
    May 22, 2015. 08:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Man's Self-Deceit Is Another Man's Rationalization [View article]
    Always
    May 20, 2015. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Man's Self-Deceit Is Another Man's Rationalization [View article]
    Thank you.

    I think it's a bad idea for a government to pay off its debt, as that may mean a cessation of growth or projects to sustain an evolving society. What is important is for government to responsibly stay current on payments.
    Let's face it, as long as government has the ability to either print money or collect taxes, they will be able to find a near term solution for any potential issue in meeting its obligations.

    I'm not worried about that at all, not even in the lifetime of my children.
    
    May 19, 2015. 04:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Man's Self-Deceit Is Another Man's Rationalization [View article]
    With the exception of CVC yesterday, waiting seems to be the order of the day(s).

    It may be interesting to see the release tomorrow of the FOMC minutes, as well as watching more attention focus on the possibility that the GDP numbers are off, due to inappropriate seasonality adjustment. That could make things interesting over the next couple of days.
    May 19, 2015. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Man's Self-Deceit Is Another Man's Rationalization [View article]
    Very true. I suppose that they're people, too.

    I guess that if traders can be replaced by an algorithm, so too can algorithm writers, someday
    May 19, 2015. 07:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • One Man's Self-Deceit Is Another Man's Rationalization [View article]
    Good point (and in far fewer words, too)
    May 19, 2015. 07:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Man's Self-Deceit Is Another Man's Rationalization [View article]
    I'm hoping to do the same.

    Bought CVC at $20.65 and sold $20 calls, hoping that they would get assigned tomorrow in order for buyer to capture $0.15 dividend. I'd be happy with the 1.9% ROI for 2 days in exchange for the dividend.

    You're right. We're all predators - but the good kind.
    May 18, 2015. 02:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • One Man's Self-Deceit Is Another Man's Rationalization [View article]
    I think those condors circling overhead know that there are a few egg filled nests under my deck. I expect that when they swoop in the volatility in the immediate vicinity of those nests will be increasing significantly for a very short time period.
    May 18, 2015. 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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