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George Acs

 
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  • The Crossroads Are Clear, But The Path Is Not [View article]
    The suppositions made in defining an "equilibrium" were, as you pointed out, very limiting and self-fulfilling. Starting with the assumption of a steady state and only considering sales and concomitant purchases can only result in a continued steady state, unless of course when corporate buybacks are on one end of that transaction. Conveniently ignoring the powerful dynamic eliminates an important vector of growth. It can't all come from share appreciation.
    When your scope is narrow it's far easier to come up with solutions that have little to no applicability.
    Jul 26 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crossroads Are Clear, But The Path Is Not [View article]
    The bond watch has been on for a while.

    When PIMCO started to look at equities there was reason to believe that would have marked a top to the stock market's march higher, but it just continued.

    Now I think that the return of Paul McCauley may also be a contrarian indicator.

    The watch on interest rates was peaking as it had been approaching 3% on the 10 year, perhaps 6 months ago and the market took a breather for a few days. Then there were concerns for the stock market's health as the rate headed toward 2.5%.

    At some point bonds will prevail only because stocks will invariably provide a negative return for a defined period of time. The challenge, that I'm never up to, is getting the timing just right, so I stay in the only thing that I can say that I both understand and don't understand, concurrently
    Jul 26 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crossroads Are Clear, But The Path Is Not [View article]
    The dividend issue is directly related to 2 factors.

    The first is what the price of shares would be after the dividend is subtracted. If that resultant amount is below the strike price then it's unlikely that you'll see assignment to capture the dividend.

    Also the more time left on the contract the less likely will be assignment unless after subtracting the dividend from the current price it is deeply in the money.

    During periods of really low volatility there is very little advantage to buy or sell deep in the money options, so the option holder, who would ordinarily prefer to make his money through the trading of options rather than exercising and assuming expense and risk, may look at his option and realize he could make more money by exercising, capturing the dividend and immediately selling his shares.
    Jul 26 12:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crossroads Are Clear, But The Path Is Not [View article]
    Well, it does keep me off the streets.

    I think I've owned eBay now about 20 times in the past 20 months.

    When I say "I think," I mean that with certainty. It's been the ideal stock, except that it has no dividend. But in those 20 times, with 2 lots still open, the average price has been $51.73 - not too much variance, but plenty of bounces between $48 and $55, all making for good and recurrent premiums. It's right near that mid-way point now, so it looks good, as it usually does.
    Jul 26 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crossroads Are Clear, But The Path Is Not [View article]
    I'd like an assortment of gears and cogs as well, and the occasional lubricant.
    Jul 26 12:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crossroads Are Clear, But The Path Is Not [View article]
    I would have loved to have been in the dugout with both Casey Stengel and Yogi Berra. There are probably so many great comments lost to history.

    But, as far as the fork in the road goes, good advice. You can do well going up or down, you just need a plan that's based on some kind of reality and the resolution to resist the challenges offered by greed, fear and envy.
    Jul 26 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crossroads Are Clear, But The Path Is Not [View article]
    Thanks.

    It's definitely hard to go all in, but it's also hard to not accept any risk and be a bystander.

    If you're an inveterate buy and hold investor, no problem. You just ride out the good and the bad. Even 1929 came to an end, as did 2008. The road you're on has no fork. It's a straight path.

    If you're a trader, the way I am, the best way is to cycle money in and out, always trying to leave some available to take advantage of what may appear to be pricing opportunities (rightly or wrongly, that's the risk). The path taken is one of proportions. It's not an all or none decision, but rather how much to commit at any time and how much to keep in reserve.
    Jul 26 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crossroads Are Clear, But The Path Is Not [View article]
    Did I mention that there was a lid on the pot and an armed guard?

    At some point that lid gets placed on the market's current rise, as well.

    The market acceleration has flattened out a bit, of late, but who knows whether that's a resting point or an inflection point? Check back in a week, in a month, next year....
    Jul 26 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crossroads Are Clear, But The Path Is Not [View article]
    You make suppositions that can only lead to the conclusion that you want.

    Of course if cash is put in and cash is taken out there is no net change.

    By the way, sideline cash can also change simply from the accumulation of cash from other sources, such as savings, the sale of real estate, etc... It isn't, as you're suggesting, a fixed sum or subject to some kind of equilibrium as was erroneously suggested earlier.

    But to your question of how does sideline cash make any change in market value? That's called supply and demand. As significantly more cash competes for shares the value of shares is driven higher. Market analysts are constantly looking at buy/sell imbalances. That ratio is tipped when cash flows into the market and tends to drive prices higher.
    Jul 26 08:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crossroads Are Clear, But The Path Is Not [View article]
    Thanks, but don't tell that to my pet lobster.

    But seriously, do you know of any portfolio manager who is not a cold blooded animal?
    Jul 26 08:11 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crossroads Are Clear, But The Path Is Not [View article]
    See the second paragraph of the article.
    Jul 26 08:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crossroads Are Clear, But The Path Is Not [View article]
    I know. Was just having fun with the typo.

    It is pretty amazing, though, how the market has surmounted so many potential obstacles over the past couple of years. They would be great lessons to apply to life in general, but I suppose it's easier when it's only money at stake
    Jul 26 08:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crossroads Are Clear, But The Path Is Not [View article]
    Truth be told, after crunching those numbers on YELP, I may go the 3% route again if it persists. Let's just say I'm a victim of recidivism, but there will certainly be more springs to come to atone
    Jul 26 08:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crossroads Are Clear, But The Path Is Not [View article]
    Thanks, but it was the sangria that inspired me.. Oh, and maybe the comment to which I replied.
    Jul 26 08:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crossroads Are Clear, But The Path Is Not [View article]
    Why is it always a choice between wall or worry? Why can't we have both?
    Jul 25 08:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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