Seeking Alpha

George Acs

View as an RSS Feed
View George Acs' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • A JOLT To The System, But The Good Kind [View article]
    If you don't mind earthquakes, mudslides, fires, water shortages and drive by shootings, there's always California.

    But no snow, at least not where I'm headed.
    Nov 22, 2014. 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A JOLT To The System, But The Good Kind [View article]
    Somehow the Mid-Atlantic has missed all of this snow. I'm still stunned that South Carolina got hit and so early in the season.

    If energy does have some recovery I may take up cigar smoking, or at least hand some out. Still, those premiums are so low, I just couldn't justify a DOH Trade in CHK (or HFC), given the kind of jump they could conceivably take, as they've been so tightly compressed.

    Now. as far as your JD goes, they report earnings this week. I have a small lot that came as a result of not paying attention and not taking off a trade overnight and having it executed in the morning. I'm hoping to see it go lower, because I want to add shares at $82.50 level
    Nov 22, 2014. 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time I Really Mean It [View article]
    Thanks, but I really have to thank Miss. Spillinger, my second grade teacher, for never letting me out of the corner, so that I would never annoy the rest of the class.

    Or, it could be a very, very slow news day, in which case "Damn you, Miss Spillinger."
    Nov 22, 2014. 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time I Really Mean It [View article]
    As usual, an interesting and insightful read.
    Nov 22, 2014. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time I Really Mean It [View article]
    Thank you.

    Looking back to when I had managed accounts, I never micromanaged my broker, but am still disbelieving in how many profits we let get away. I'm not certain whether the strategy was driven by tax considerations or maybe greed, but those gains are so meaningless unless realized.

    The Twitter trade of selling puts and rolling over did become one of taking assignment on one lot several months ago, but as long as the volume is there, they are pretty easy to rollover and wait out any unexpected movement. I loved that sequence of trades that took about 6 months to come to closure, but returned about 20% (look for the light green shaded trades)

    The most current sequence of trades is now up to 4.5% ROI now on its 4th cycle, if it expires this Friday.

    The great thing is that if the trades come to their conclusion they typically do so at the same strike at which they started, but with a nice ROI to show, even in the absence of any net price movement over the time span.
    Nov 22, 2014. 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time I Really Mean It [View article]
    That observation that the "average" US stock is struggling somewhat is really the case.

    That's reflective of the kind of sector rotations that we've had for almost the past two years. In addition, many stocks, not just of the Momentum variety have had some really brutal price action on the very slightest of disappointment and have been, in general, much slower to recover.

    That's part of what has driven hedge fund managers crazy, as the added protection from various hedging techniques has been reduced and only perfect timing of sectors could match passive index investment.
    Nov 22, 2014. 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A JOLT To The System, But The Good Kind [View article]
    It seemed like old times this week, although I was upset at not being able to rollover LO, as it goes ex-dividend next week. Who knows, there are two more days left for it to come in a little and maybe grab it back.

    But all in all, not too bad. Just wait for some energy bounces and that may provide all the fuel necessary for us to rumble for a while.
    Nov 21, 2014. 05:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A JOLT To The System, But The Good Kind [View article]
    With premiums so low, there is less cushion and less reward relative to risk when dealing with ex-dividend positions.

    I was looking at MOS options all through yesterday and again today, on the basis of its strength, but couldn't find a premium at an expiration date, neither before nor after the ex-dividend date, that warranted taking the risk of losing the dividend.

    If the strength continues for another couple of days and sees shares approaching 50, I might get more inclined to take the risk as the 50-51 level has offered some pretty substantial resistance
    Nov 19, 2014. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A JOLT To The System, But The Good Kind [View article]
    What was interesting was that in the final minute of trading there was a very large block of SPY trading, about 3% of the day's volume and that was on an uptick. That may have helped today get off to a decent start, or at least put a floor under the market, leading up to the FOMC.
    Nov 19, 2014. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    Dumping the shares, and the questions you raise, really does show a lack of understanding of how the dynamics of stock ownership works.

    Firstly, if you all dumped shares out of emotion, that is already a violation of a cardinal rule of investing. But did you think that in any way was detrimental to eBay?
    To suggest that eBay knew which sellers were share holders and would knowingly take actions in the belief that sellers who were also share holders would dump shares compounds one irrational thought with another. As a rational actor eBay wouldn't expect anyone to irrationally sell their shares in some kind of protest and wouldn't devise a strategy on the basis of predictng an irrational behavior by people acting against their own self-interests.

    When you buy or sell shares, other than in an IPO or a secondary offering, you aren't dealing with the company any longer. Unless the company is actively buying back shares and retiring them, you are selling them at an arbitrarily low price by virtue of "dumping" to another individual or institution, either of which would be happy to buy it at a perceived bargain.

    The company only cares about daily share price insofar as adequate share price keeps complaints at lower levels. Otherwise, they could care less what you did with your shares or the "10s of thousands of sellers" whom you assert dumped their stock. That kind of selling in the absence of news is quickly absorbed and forgotten about.
    Nov 17, 2014. 05:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    "Let me tell you something"? You do know how to convince someone to ignore what you've written, although the content alone does that sufficiently well.
    Again. Trading not investing.

    What part of the quote you cited turns your stomach? While I don't know if that is part of eBay's mission statement, it is what users expect of it. You simply don't believe that they are being true or fair to one side of the equation.

    But I will take your advice and continue to write about eBay if I believe that there is a trading opportunity at a particular moment in time.

    But as far as the bigger picture goes, you are being extremely naive or simply blinded by your prejudice. The reality is that investors in a company are often at odds with those that use the services of that company. They can have very different expectations and goals and the one class can stand in the way of the other class reaching those goals.

    Do you believe that investors in utility companies care about increased fees incurred by end users? Do you think end users care about cutting the dividend of that utility company?

    Of course they don't. Both sides see a single side of the argument. They see the side that accrues benefit to their cause.

    As someone who seeks to make money by trading in eBay, I don't particularly have a vested interest in how they get transactions to occur. I don't particularly care whether the sellers are corporate giants or budding 15 year old entrepreneurs. What I care about is that its share price does what I expect it to do during a very short time frame. Usually, all I ask of it is that it stay at the same price that I purchased the shares, so status quo works for me and I can remain agnostic with regard to any issues that may be perceived as important by others who feel aggrieved.
    Nov 17, 2014. 05:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pity The Hedge Fund Manager [View article]
    What is your point about eBay being at $13 in 2008 and now at $55? There are countless stocks have had the same experience coming from the depths of the market's tumble between 2007 - 2009. eBay is certainly not unique in that regard and that kind of appreciation doesn't mark it any differently than so many other companies.

    For example, Halliburton, even with a 10% drop today, has out-performed eBay since the market peak in October 2007 through today. Is that a garbage company, too? Today, perhaps, but it doesn't stand alone for having had a tremendous share price climb after having sustained tremendous share price declines during a previous indiscriminate period of time.

    A market decline will be relatively indiscriminate, but will likely be more harsh on high beta and high multiple stocks. eBay has neither of those characteristics.

    Whether eBay will hit $35 before it hits $75 is really immaterial to me. I trade covered options and do so with the intent of a very short term time horizon.

    You may also want to re-consider your opposition to shorting stocks. Without shorts there would not be any where near the kind of liquidity that exists in markets. They play a very valuable role in market integrity.

    What doesn't play a valuable role is emotion when considering making trades. It tends to obscure an objective approach to risk and reward. Baggage weighs you down., so it's often best to travel lightly when making your trades
    Nov 17, 2014. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A JOLT To The System, But The Good Kind [View article]
    Consumerism may bring that to mind for you, but not necessarily for others.

    I looked at it strictly through an economic lens, that is neither liberal, nor conservative. Calling it a virtuous cycle is not a statement of its virtue, but rather the beneficial effect that one event has on the other.
    Jobs, particularly better paying jobs, lead to a number of things. Among those is increased discretionary spending, which can then lead to inflation, which to a point, may be another virtuous cycle, but like so many things, real virtue is usually only possible when moderation comes into play.
    Be neither liberal, nor conservative, just be thoughtful by looking for moderation.
    Nov 16, 2014. 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A JOLT To The System, But The Good Kind [View article]
    I've been waiting for FL for such a long time to come down in price, that I've stopped looking at it. As it turns out, the last time I owned shares was October 2013, which was about $20 ago.

    It's not too far from its high and reports earnings on Friday. If it was a stock that I wouldn't mind owning, but maybe at a lower price, I might consider selling some out of the money Nov 22, 2014 puts, being prepared to either take assignment or rollover the puts to December 20, 2014.

    If particularly bullish on shares, you can also look at possibility of buying shares and selling January 17, 2015 calls, although they haven't yet announced an ex-div date and it may be right about the time of that contract's expiration
    Nov 16, 2014. 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A JOLT To The System, But The Good Kind [View article]
    Being able to predict interest rates even a day in advance would be enough for me. Not too long ago everyone was predicting a 3% rate. WHen that didn't materialize the same voices said a 2.5% rate would cause a halt to the market's expansion. 1.9% about a month ago didn't seem to cause that halt and a nearly 20% higher on the bounce didn't do anything either.
    Not only do you have to predict where rates are heading, but if interested in equities, what the impact will be. Two very difficult things to predict in tandem.

    As far as the leanings of the incoming voting members of the Fed, while they are perceived to be more dovish, certainly than Richard Fisher, I don't think that there will be any doubt that Janet Yellen will be the lead voice. While she is perceived as dovish and with an emphasis on employment might welcome wage inflation, I think she is more pragmatist that she is dovish.
    For me, that means expect the unexpected and throw out any preconceived notions on where she will take things. I wouldn't be terribly shocked if the dovish Yellen knows how to handle a hammer and clamp down, as warranted and before any runaway movement puts her into reactive mode.
    Nov 16, 2014. 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment