Seeking Alpha

George Acs

 
View as an RSS Feed
View George Acs' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Party Like It's 2011 [View article]
    I don't really have a target value, but wouldn't mind seeing it get up to about 20.

    What would be ideal is to see it go higher without a large net change in the market index. Days like today where the market goes straight down by 200 points is not the ideal way to get an increase in VIX. Much better to have a day as when in the past week we were down about 175 and then regained most of it and then dropped again. That's real volatility and if offset by an opposite move the next day, even better.
    Oct 1, 2014. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Party Like It's 2011 [View article]
    I don't follow Ford, but I agree with your basic premise that selling may be overdone, but I do get concerned when I see a company approaching its 52 week low and don't see too much price support below.

    As earnings season starts in a week, that is another factor that should be considered for any trades. It introduces risk, but not much in the way of reward, if using a $15 strike.

    Ford reports earnings on 10/24, so your proposed trade does give 2 weeks to recover from any further drop in shares. However, you may have noticed that the premium for those additional two weeks is only about an additional $0.03, which is likely depressed due to the anticipated dividend.

    Back to the earnings, if shares do go higher upon their announcement, particularly if they go much beyond $15.13 you then run the risk of early assignment and not capturing the dividend, which contributes almost 1% to your ROI.

    Of course, if assigned early you do get to keep the additional two weeks of premium, but as noted that is only about $0.03 or about 0.2% for two weeks. The real potential benefit is that you could then re-invest the money elsewhere for that two week period if assigned early, needing only to make up for about 0.8% of net lost income over that two week period.

    One thing that I try to stay away from is discussing or presenting annualized yields based on short term trades.

    Besides the difficulty in replicating such an outcome over and over, the particular set of conditions that you have used can't be replicated. That's the case since the dividend comes every 13th week and this trade is a 6 week one. You are immediately exaggerating the projection based on a dividend that wont recur as often as your projection assumes.

    If the stock is assigned at expiration and you get the full $0.67, you will have had an ROI of 4.5%. You can decide whether that's good enough by comparing it to something else for that same time frame, such as the S&P 500.
    Sep 30, 2014. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Party Like It's 2011 [View article]
    I'm surprised that the decision was announced today and even more so that they estimated that it will take a year to complete a spin off. I would have expected the announcement at a time when shares were under some attack.

    The real liability for eBay is that if Apple Pay gains any traction at all, they are sitting on a wasting asset,so the quicker they can monetize it, the better.

    I expect my $53.50 to be called this week and still have a 10/24 $57 call, which is about 9 days after earnings. I would look to potentially roll that over after earnings if it looks like it may end up getting assigned.

    The disappointment on today's move is that share price didn't exceed where it went when word first came out of Icahn's position. Even with the $4 gain its below the $59+ level it hit a few months ago. However, I think that if it has a positive earnings report it may be worth continuing to own, or at least looking for new entry levels until they finally execute a spin-off.
    Sep 30, 2014. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Party Like It's 2011 [View article]
    No, not right now. Had the $51.50 assigned on Friday and have a $53.50 lot up this Friday, in addition to a $57 the week after earnings.

    I might be interested in adding another lot if shares look at $52, preferably below there, but if they start stabilizing between 52 and $52.50 that may be enough of an invitation for me.
    Sep 29, 2014. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Party Like It's 2011 [View article]
    In moderation.
    Sep 29, 2014. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Party Like It's 2011 [View article]
    I do agree with the latter, or at least hope that's the case. As far as the former goes, I hope that's the case, more so than seeing a large drop or series of drops, without offsetting bounces. As said in the article, I'd much rather see an orderly increase in volatility stemming from gyrations rather than from plunges.
    Sep 29, 2014. 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Party Like It's 2011 [View article]
    Insurance companies certainly see the benefit of inflated dollars with regard to their projected liabilities 10, 20, 30 years and longer down the line.

    However, the stock market is very unlikely to discount the role of higher interest rates for anything other than how it contributes to the short term earnings prospects as a result of increasing margins.

    If I had a longer term horizon, however, I would consider the point that you made to be an important consideration and would look very favorably at insurance companies and others in the finance sector, as good long term holdings, particularly if believing that another prolonged period of low interest rates is not likely.
    Sep 28, 2014. 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Party Like It's 2011 [View article]
    Yeah, what he said.

    Although, as a disclaimer, some of the subscribers take on more angelic personae and do not frighten women and little children in the course of their pursuit of option related income..
    Sep 28, 2014. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Party Like It's 2011 [View article]
    You have been a busy guy, but that's the best way to be.

    You may be like me, in that my brokerage calls me to make certain I'm still alive if a day goes without some trading activity.
    Sep 28, 2014. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Hedge Fund: Crowdsourcing Opportunity [View article]
    As with any attempts to crowdsource or to do any kinds of meta analyses the metrics and definitions need to be validated and standardized, respectively.

    I'm not certain that I would characterize my article ( "Almost Nothing Can Stop a Runaway Train" http://seekingalpha.co... ), which you referenced as being "bullish" as necessarily reflecting that characterization.

    While the premise of crowdsourcing may have promise, just as there are those that analyze Tweets and StockTwits comments, the outcome of any kind of crowdsourcing analysis is only as good as the selection criteria used to input data.
    Sep 28, 2014. 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Party Like It's 2011 [View article]
    I didn't reference time, but it was the latter half of 2011 that really saw the volatility increase in 2011, although it did plunge in the final couple of weeks of the year as the S&P 500 climbed significantly higher.

    Your timing on stock purchases was very good.
    Sep 28, 2014. 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Party Like It's 2011 [View article]
    Europe may have its continuing issues but now in the mix is an ECB that appears to be willing to infuse the system with support, precisely as the Federal Reserve did with Quantitative Easing.

    Since QE was widely believed to be the instrument that support US equity markets and made it the alternative investment for everyone in the world, there's little reason to suspect that a similar strategy by the ECB would help to turn things around in Europe.
    Sep 28, 2014. 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Party Like It's 2011 [View article]
    Thanks.

    We'll see whether there's any follow through to this week's triple digit moves, although they, themselves were a follow-up to the previous week.

    We did have the same sort of rise in volatility back at the end of July, but that was as result of a nearly 5% drop in prices.

    My guess is that for most people the volatility rise over the past few days was much more kind to their bottom lines than that seen 2 months ago
    Sep 28, 2014. 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Party Like It's 2011 [View article]
    Very nice article, worth repeating the link http://bit.ly/1rrPRJS

    If I had any say in the matter, my preference would be to see volatility increase through gyrations rather than through bona fide corrections, but no one really listens to me
    Sep 27, 2014. 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Party Like It's 2011 [View article]
    I'm not certain yet how much Freeport McMoRan sees its share price respond to any impact on its Plains Energy unit, but expect that they will get to the point that the acquisition will prove to be a very good addition offering some hedge to its copper and gold businesses. I think that it trades not as an energy play, but still on the basis of its traditional mining businesses.

    Freeport has been a core holding for me for about 15 years, through thick and thin. It reports earnings in about 3 weeks and I don't think there will be much good news to report, nor much reason to offer optimistic guidance, At the moment I would be reluctant to add shares unless trying specifically to have a very short term holding and an attempt to capture its dividend.

    For the longer term, with a payout ratio of about 50% and a dividend yield of about 3.8% it should have something of a floor under shares in the event of continuing commodity weakness, but believe that it could still test $28.50
    Sep 27, 2014. 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
5,103 Comments
3,159 Likes